Brandon

I take it his e-mail feedback from those previous statements wasn't kind.

Honestly, I don't believe that either one are serious threats to select a RB in R1. Norwood had an excellent rookie season with stats comparable to the much hyped Michael Turner, while Chester Taylor posted over 1,400 total yards for the Vikings last year. Perhaps neither one are great, but you don't need a great RB, or so I am told.

The Bannister and Scobey visits were on the ticker on NFL Network a few days ago.

I actually really wanted to put one of those three offensive positions in the last 2 rounds. In the end, however, I think its more likely that the OLB contributes this year. At WR, in particular, think its a case of either selecting one early (probably R1 or 2) or not picking one at all. A later round pick at that position is going to have an extremely difficult time finding a roster spot. The first mock I put together and decided not to post was very similar, except that it had Jason Hill going to the Bills in R2, with Durant, MLB Anthony Waters and Michael Coe going to the Bills in R3-4.

1) RB Marshawn Lynch, California 2) MLB David Harris, Michigan 3) OLB Justin Durant, Hampton 3) CB Michael Coe, Alabama State 6) OLB Zach Catanese, Arizona State 7) CB Anthony Arline, Baylor 7) DT Ola Dagunduro, Nebraska This isn't my final prediction, but its close. In years past, one could often read the tea leaves in the final week leading up to the draft and have a very accurate idea of what they'd do in round 1, but this staff appears more unpredictable. Still, I'll wait until Thursday or Friday next week to see what happens before posting a final prediction. That said, at this point, I'm about 75% sure that Lynch is their pick at 12, and about 50% sure they're going to trade up from 43 for a LB. Here, I have them giving up a 4th to move ahead of the 49ers to select David Harris, who I feel is easily the 2nd best MLB in the draft and worth a late 1st round pick. The remaining picks address needs for competition and depth defensively. One note: Catanese is a collegiate S, but will likely play WLB in the NFL. The Bills have one major need offensively, yet several defensively. The approach I've taken, and the one I feel the Bills will also take, is one of quality-vs-quantity. From an overall standpoint, the team is equally weak on both sides of the ball, yet is hampered by only one major weakness offensively, while there are several defensively. It seems logical that a quality RB would make more of an impact on the offense for that reason. Even if the Bills select a LB or CB #1, there will still be significant weaknesses defensively and they probably still finish in the bottom third of the league. Add a top tier RB and this definitely appears to be a top 15 offense. They still need a better #2 WR and TE, but neither is critical. Additionally, it stands to reason that if the Bills are only going to add one first day player (or just one player, as I have here) for the offense, they need to make it count. Unless they have Lynch rated as a late 1st, or unless they are much higher on the 2nd tier guys than it seems, I feel that Marshawn Lynch is the most likely pick at 12.

Such a trade could normally be expected to cost at least a 2nd round pick.

I agree. If the Bills select a RB in R1, there's very little reason to select a LB in R2, unless David Harris is still available. I think Harris is probably the most underrated LB prospect by fans at the moment (he goes 50-75 in a lot of mock drafts on the internet), but I believe he'll go 25th-35th overall next weekend. If they select Lynch at 12 as I expect them to, I don't think it would be a bad idea at all to move up for Harris. The top 2 needs would be filled with a couple of very strong prospects with no real weaknesses in their game. As a side note, one MLB who might end up being a major steal is Anthony Waters of Clemson. Normally, I do not like selecting players coming off major knee injuries, but it appears that he's progressing well in his recovery. He recently ran in the low 4.6s for 22 teams at a private workout in which he was said to be about 90%. So clearly, it looks like he's going to make it back and quite possibly play this season. In a weak LB draft, and a weak draft in general, I'd have no problems whatsoever taking a chance on him at 93 as the team's MLB prospect as long as the Bills also pick a solid OLB prospect at 74 or earlier.

I think you're reading WAY too much into it. There's really no reason for the Bills not to be rather honest in their assessments of these players. They aren't divulging any information that the rest of the league doesn't already know. Its not like the Bills took the media in to see the draftboard.

It is interesting, isn't it? An argument can be made that its a 'smokescreen', but in this case, it would almost seem to be TOO obvious for that to be the case. I think its most likely that the Bills are bringing in their top 3-4 guys for one final visit before finalizing the draft board this weekend.

I'd be concerned if they were RBs. The only guy you can point to there is JJ Arrington, who has been a bust in Arizona. Then again, its not like Edgerrin James is tearing up the league playing for the Cards, either.

The interesting thing is that Pittman was the only non-1st round Rb that really got a strong review from the Bills. Modrak basically seemed to indicate that the group consisted of good situational players better suited to a #2 role. That raises an interesting question: Do the Bills think Pittman will be there at 43, or do they view him as a player who has separated himself from that pack and now may be a borderline R1 type guy?

Tipster, some of the statements regarding the 2nd tier RBs as well as the update on the Turner situation have me believing now more than ever that Lynch is their guy at 12. IMO, he'd be an excellent addition with that pick. Dennis, I merely tossed in that note about the non-mention of the supposed injury for those that keep harping on it. I've never bought into it. I'm now all but certain that its BS, as I'm pretty sure Schefter was the one who first mentioned it a month ago. The fact that he didn't mention it now in this particular segment leads me to believe he no longer considers it credible, either.

He was asked for a reason why Lynch might slip and brought up the character issue, but Schefter also said that teams that have had meetings with Lynch have had no questions about it afterward. Additionally, it is interesting that he made no mentioned of the rumored back injury that Lynch may have, particularly in a segment concerning reasons Lynch might slip in the draft.

Maybe Marv would be suprised if this trade happens because he has decided to draft a RB instead? That may be one of the 'complexities' he speaks of. It wouldn't be the first time he has completely dropped his interest in a player upon learning the price tag (Titans FA RB Chris Brown is a good example).

I think that's probably true this year, but lets not forget the 2000 draft. Everyone remembers that draft for being terrible for the Bills, but that draft was a turd almost from start to finish. There were a few good players after the middle of R2, but they were few and far between. Those drafts happen about once every decade or so, and while I don't think that this draft sucks THAT bad, its probably the weakest since that time.

I think you also have to be careful taking it to the other extreme, however, by placing too much emphasis on one or two poor times. The shuttle and cone drills, in particular, are a little bit more technique-based than the others, and poor technique can adversely affect scores. As an example, a lot of fans try to use a poor short shuttle time to bash Marshawn Lynch, but his 10, 20, and 40 yard times, as well as his cone drill, broad jump and vertical jump are very comparable to those posted by Adrian Peterson (and Peterson in fact ran a somewhat weak shuttle time as well, 4.40). If I had to guess, neither Peterson or Lynch ran that short shuttle with good technique, perhaps over-running the mark or slipping, and it cost them time. Their other scores compare favorably to anyone at the combine and are not indicative of a player who is unathletic. So in this case, the outlier, the poor shuttle, probably should be discarded.

Yep. I also think that you really have to consider the ability to read the play quickly and react to it as well. That's extremely hard to judge, but it can easily make up for a LOT of speed deficiencies and is an important attribute in a LB, perhaps the most important. It can also completely negate any advantage a player might have in terms of speed and athleticism if he can't do it. Note that I'm not aiming that at Willis, but its just an observation about the LB position in general.

Its not just the weight loss. I think a lot of people don't realize that the scouts adjust these 40 times from Pro Days based upon the conditions and the track surface. So while a team may have officially clocked Patrick Willis at 4.38 at his Pro Day, it may have officially been recorded as a 4.45-4.50 based on the track surface combined with his weight loss. The 40 times don't mean jack, anyway. The 10 and 20 yard components of the 40 are FAR more relevant than the 40 overall. Posluszny's combine times there were 1.56 and 2.73, respectively. That, along with the overall time, tells me that he may not have great top end speed, but he hits that top speed very quickly. The shuttle, cone drill, vertical and broad jumps all seem to support the idea that he has a very good burst from a standstill. Willis scored well in both the 10 (1.53) and 20 (2.62) components, as expected from someone who posted a 4.51 at the combine.

I agree that Willis is a superior athlete. Given the choice, I would select Willis over Posluszny, but I'm not so sure he's a significantly better player on the field, however. I think both will be very good NFL players, but perhaps not quite great. And I know about the speed of the SEC. I'm a Razorback fan living in SEC territory.

Posluszny's knee injury is overblown. It didn't even require surgery. That's not to say it isn't a concern, but the Patrick Willis fan club is trying to convince everyone that the doctors may have to amputate Posluszny's leg or something.

Possibly, but as I remind everyone that touts the '08 RB class, its almost entirely reliant upon juniors declaring themselves eligible. Its also dependent upon those guys having good seasons and staying healthy. None of that is a given and these classes that look great a year out have often evaporated by the time the draft actually occurs.

You're right about one thing. His value to the Chargers next year will next to nothing (they rarely sign FAs and probably will get an '09 compensatory for him). But the Chargers are a Super Bowl contending team NOW. They don't need draft picks. They need players they can rely on this upcoming season. Additionally, if this is such a weak RB class (and I believe it is), Turner becomes even more valuable to the Chargers as it would seem to be more difficult to replace him.

Yes, a serviceable back-up could adequately replace Turner, but that's the problem. There are absolutely no guarantees that the Chargers can find a serviceable backup. And in what round do they have to draft him? Its a pretty questionable trade for the Chargers if they gain a 2nd from Turner, only to have to turn around and use a 2nd-4th on a totally unproven rookie to replace him. It only makes sense for the Chargers to take that risk if they reasonably believe that doing so can make a dramatic upgrade to their team in 2007. That's why AJ seems to be insisting on a #1 and rightfully so.

Why trade a player who does a very good job at filling a vital role on the team for a 2nd round draft pick that may not be able to contribute immediately? AJ Smith isn't going to lower his asking price, nor should he. Turner's value to the Chargers is greater than his value to the teams interested in trading for him.

I agree completely on the roles of free agency and the draft. As for Patrick Willis, I think he'll go 8th overall to Detroit after the Lions trade with Atlanta.