Brandon

Nor am I. DE has become a lot like TE or perhaps even CB, where unless you're getting a truly great player, he's probably just another guy. As I stated in another thread, there appears to be precious little middle ground at the position anymore. The guy is either really good or he sucks. The number of first round DEs over the last 10-12 years that fit into the latter category has been at least as high as with any other position, too. That's not to say that I think Derrick Harvey sucks. Heck, I'm not even sure that I wouldn't select him at 11, although I'm leaning against it. I'm just not sure what we're really getting if we draft the guy. He certainly doesn't have the look of a truly elite prospect and that's what scares me.

Again, its not just the base salary. If the Bills draft Derrick Harvey at 11, that's yet another $8-10 million signing bonus that ol' Ralph has to pour into the position up front, never mind the base salaries.

Their base salaries may be in that range, but that only tells a part of the story. Signing bonuses, roster bonuses and other incentives aren't included. Admittedly, I have not done the math, but you can take a stroll over to Bills Daily and look at their '08 cap page to get an idea of how much impact Schobel and Kelsay are really having on the Bills' finances. Or heck, I can just tell you that they list their combined cap hit this year as $13.7 million.

I don't know if I'd call Harvey a freakish athlete or not. The combine numbers certainly don't bear that out, nor did his production at Florida. He's a very good college football player and appears to be an 'all-around' DE prospect rather than a great rusher, but is he going to be Tamba Hali or will he be like David Pollack or Michael Haynes or even Kelsay and Denney? That's what I worry about with the guy. Unless they actually are freak athletes, DEs these days seem to be a dime a dozen. I definitely wouldn't mind seeing them trade for Boldin, but I'll be shocked if it happens. Otherwise, I'd rather just draft one in R2 and hope for the best, even if that guy is likely to be the 6th or 7th one off the board. Carlson isn't a bad pick at all at TE in R3.

The better question, IMO, is how he compares to the other DEs that have been drafted in R1 in the last 8-10 years. http://www.drafthistory.com/positions/de.html Call me crazy, but that's one hell of a sorry group. Unless you know that you're getting an elite player, you're probably better off rolling the dice on a 2nd or 3rd rounder. There seems to be little middle ground at the position. You either get a very good/great player or you get mediocrity. Aaron Schobel, BTW, leads all 1st and 2nd round DEs selected since 2000 with 67.5 sacks. The moral of this story? If the Bills draft Derrick Harvey, they'd better be absolutely sure about him. It seems any DE in R1 is basically boom or bust.

There have been conflicting reports in the last week or so about his 40 time. The earlier one has him running in the low 4.4s. I guess we'll find out which rumor is correct on Wednesday.

Fact? Based on what? Again, I suppose you're a physician and have examined Malcolm Kelly's knees personally? He wouldn't be the first guy to ever suffer a serious knee injury in high school or college and go onto a very productive NFL career.

I think that may be an oversight by Kiper. He has Kelly ranked as the 22nd best prospect overall and his best WR, ahead of the guys he actually does project to go in R1. http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/melkiper/index

I would probably take Sweed, Kelly or Devin Thomas. I'm not sure which one I like better at this point, though I'm starting to lean towards the latter two. Additionally, Dominique Rogers-Cromartie is already off the board one pick before the Bills. I'd consider selecting him ahead of the WRs if he were available.

IMO, its a lot less about the weed and a lot more about his judgement (or lackthereof). If he can't stay away from it during this draft process when he knows it could hurt him and cost him hundreds of thousands of dollars, but especially when his draft stock is already diving, it really makes me question this guy's character. How bad does he really want to play in the NFL if he's willing to risk what's left of his draft hopes? If I can't trust the guy to take the draft process seriously, dedicate himself to it, and to stay clean for a few months of his life, how can I trust him to actually dedicate himself for a period of years to playing football? If I'm a GM, I can't.

There's always one guy that manages to completely destroy his draft stock before the draft every year. Looks like Bowman is this year's winner. As if his awful 40 times haven't been bad enough. http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpag...4696&spln=1

They would indeed be fools to select a WR who carries a significantly lower grade on their board than a DE. The issue isn't quite so clear as that separation narrows, however, and if the DE were only grading out slightly higher than the WR, need starts playing a bigger factor. Note that ALL of these arguments are also based upon a false assumption, that being that Derrick Harvey is rated higher on the Bills board than their #1 WR. Its possibly true (in fact, I think its probably true), but its also something that we don't really know. Those getting their shorts tied in knots over the prospect of 'reaching' for a WR need to consider this possibility. It may not be a reach on their board.

I'm not entirely sure that the defense does. They haven't proven it on the field yet, but with the offseason additions and the return of a few injured players, I don't think they're going to be anything as terrible as we've seen at times over the last two years.

Nor would I. I've never been a fan of first round CBs, but I must admit, I would not be upset in the slightest if they selected Rogers-Cromarite.

The only way that I'd take the guy that high is if I thought he were a difference maker. I don't. He's a solid first round DE prospect, but I think that the Bills can get much more bang for their draft day buck with a WR or even CB selection. They're going to get more opportunities and they'll probably be a much bigger improvement than the guy they replace. At this point, I have not completely made up my mind exactly who they should pick, however.

You're right, they were a bit overrated, but those defenses were also a lot better than what the Bills have now. I also think you're right about another point...there's already reason to believe that this Bills defense will be a lot better than it was a season ago. Lets see what they can do before we start pouring in resources that may not be necessary. And I've never said that Malcolm Kelly will solve all of the problems on this team's offense (I'm not even sure I'd pick him). He won't. But you've got to start somewhere.

He was probably asked about it, which would explain why he addressed it specifically. Its not an indicator of interest, IMO, and shouldn't be interpreted as one.

And I think that the only way that the Bills will ever become a consistent winner is by developing a balanced roster. Right now, they have anything but. This particular team isn't going to win with any consistency, especially year-to-year with its offense in its current state. Look at the Bills 2003 and 2004 seasons if you need an example of what happens when a team with a good/great D also has an offense that can't get out of its own way. They won a grand total of 15 games in two years, despite having the league's 2nd ranked defense in total yards each season (5th and 8th respectively, in points allowed). This particular defense is not one DE from being as good as that one was, either.

This team isn't going to win jack squat if they're scoring 15 points per game. We might get lucky and somehow beat the Pats once, but until this team has even an average NFL offense, I don't believe they'll ever consistently win more than 6-8 games per year.

Don't read too much into Jauron's statement. Taken at face value, its probably true. There's no real reason for Jauron to lie about it. Its not an indicator of their potential interest in Malcolm Kelly.

That I can agree with. Improvement IS a must. However, I would be more inclined to give this group a chance to recover from a poor season, adding a middle rounder to serve as a rush specialist to bolster the position for '08. If its still a problem going into next year, that's when I would pull the trigger on a 1st rounder and go for the major overhaul. Likewise, I'd also argue that its a must to improve upon the Bills 12 TD passes of a season ago by improving the putrid production at WR and TE. Given how bad this offense is, I do believe that a WR picked 11th overall will get many more opportunities to earn a starting job and make plays this year, so unless their actual draft grades are badly unbalanced, I think that a player like Sweed or Kelly would probably provide more value at least for the next season or two than Harvey.

I know. I believe that he was also the one who ran with the rumor of Lynch's back problems a year ago.

I only point out Florida's season defensive stats to show that Harvey's presence hasn't prevented them from struggling against the pass. He's been presented as a cure-all by some, and I think that's very misleading. He didn't mask their problems and he's not going to mask ours. Good player and *maybe* capable of 10 sacks per year, but not a true difference-maker, IMO. In his first season or two, I see him simply being used as a part of the rotation and perhaps seeing 30-40% of the total defensive snaps in that time.

That's kind of what worries me with Harvey. How much better is he than what the Bills have already? He's the 3rd or 4th best DE on most people's boards and posted a pretty mundane 8.5 sacks this year. I don't have the sack totals for their defense overall, but they were ranked 98th in the country this season allowing 258 yards per game. Opposing QBs completed just a shade under 60% against them and threw 19 TDs vs 11 INTs. http://web1.ncaa.org/d1mfb/natlRank.jsp?ye...ef&site=org So was he a difference-maker in their pass D? If he was, then their pass D must be truly awful without him. That's not to say he can't play, but I have a hard time believing that his addition is going to turn this into a great defense. He didn't at Florida and the Gators are hardly lacking in talent at that level of competition. He looks like a solid 1st round DE prospect, but not a gamechanger, IMO. One update: I did find the Florida team defense stats. They had 29 QB sacks as a team in 13 games. http://www.secsports.com/new/sports/fbc/07stats/uf.htm

A little more on the health of Malcolm Kelly, from none other than Dick Jauron: http://buffalonews.typepad.com/billboard/2...on-on-okie.html Now perhaps you can say that Jauron wouldn't dare say anything negative publicly about Kelly's knees, and I think that's probably true. However, he didn't have to say anything at all, and the fact that he gave a positive assessment of the issue instead of remaining non-committal is probably a sign that its not a problem in the Bills' eyes.