Kirby Jackson

You’ve been pretty vocal on here that you want to use 10-11 picks. Can you please elaborate on what you expect the 53 man roster to look like? There aren’t 10-11 spots now and they are still adding bodies. Help us understand why that’s a good allocation of resources.

No problem. I did a WAY too early 53 about 2 weeks ago on here. Some of it is subject to change. In a nutshell, I expect a starting S and at least 2 more DL prior to the draft. I was advocating a trade up to 9 for the WR. This may or may not happen but it plays in this list. You can replace McKinney with Blackmon because I’m guessing that happens. You can also replace Davenport with Epenesa, Foreman with Ty Johnson, Cowing with Hollins and Thomas with Samuel. You still may add someone like Cowing and bump Shavers/Shorter to PS. Basically there are a few spots needed for guys to play and some reserve spots left. Here’s where I was: Way too early 53: QB (2): Allen Trubisky RB (3): Cook Foreman Gore FB (1): Gilliam TE (3): Kincaid Knox Morris WR (6): Diggs Odunze Shakir Thomas Cowing (returner) Shorter/Shavers OL (10): Dawkins Edwards McGovern Torrence Brown Nijman Anderson Van Demark Jones Doyle DL (11): Von Rousseau Oliver Daquan Jenkins Davenport Thomas Anderson Briggs Shaq Jonathan LB (5): Milano Bernard Dorian Williams Spector Matakevich DB (9): Douglas Benford Elam Taron Rapp McKinney Vaki Cam Lewis Hamlin ST (3): Haack Bass Ferguson

I’ll ask it differently, “how many available roster spots do you see?” For me, it isn’t about 2 bites at the apple in the 6th. I’m using that ammo, to move up in the 6th and draft a guy that I have a 4th round grade on (for example). I am trusting my scouting. Adding 7 or 8 guys in the draft would still be A TON. There just aren’t the roster spots to support it.

Adams is 🗑️. He cannot play CF and that’s what the Bills need. Simmons is my first choice but Blackmon would be a nice consolation prize.

I don’t think that there is an argument to drafting 10-11 guys (despite the need to make the roster younger). I could see 7 or 8 making sense. Look at the depth chart and tell me where you have room for 11? I get the theory that it’s “more bites at the apple” but there aren’t enough spots. Your focus needs to be on your number 2 WR, followed by the DL. You need to get, 3 bodies there. You’re likely going to sign your other starting S, but you should draft a guy as well. You could also use a late round RB that can run between the tackles. That leaves 5-6 roster spots that you need from the draft. If you want to draft a couple more guys to compete with others on the back of the roster, so be it. That’ll be where BPA comes in. Otherwise, you use those last 3(ish) picks to move around the board and target guys before you have a tier break. At this point, I’d be happy with something like: - AD Mitchell - Kris Jenkins - Gabe Hall - Dadrion Taylor-Demerson - Xavier Thomas - Audric Estime - BPA - BPA

No one is moving the goal posts. The point has been that the Bills have invested HEAVILY in defense and have had a top 5ish defense annually. It hasn’t mattered when they got to Mahomes and Reid in the playoffs. That hasn’t been enough. I provided FACTS to support that when it comes to the draft. Here is another: of those DL drafted, every single one of them was picked earlier than every single WR with the exception of Daryl Johnson. It hasn’t worked!!! The offensive philosophy has been to put whomever on the outside (with the exception of Diggs) and Allen’s greatness will elevate them. That has worked some as well. Imagine if they had guys, other than Diggs, that could win on their own? Imagine if they had guys, other than Josh, that could make plays with the ball in their hands? Instead of continuing to invest the prime resources on the defensive side of the ball, they need to prioritize WR. They have largely abandoned it and wasted years of Allen’s prime doing that. Your defense may go from top 5 to top 10 in doing so but who cares. You are going to win BECAUSE OF JOSH ALLEN. That is what this team has. Josh Allen was the only Buffalo Bills player ranked in PFFs top 101 players of 2023. The Bills need to stop putting the pieces elsewhere and then hope that he elevates whatever is left on offense. That mindset started to change last year with the Kincaid pick. That will continue this year as they look for their future number 1 WR. Play to your strengths. You don't need to invest top resources on rotational defensive linemen. They’ve invested heavily at LB and in the secondary. When you combine FA dollars with “where guys were drafted” the investment in the defense DWARFS that of the offense. That has been CRIMINAL with Josh Allen in his prime. They have been reactive instead of the aggressive despite having a HOF QB. It’s going to change moving forward. The definition of insanity would be to continue passing out big deals to rotational defensive linemen (ie Settle, Floyd, Phillips, Ford) or high end draft picks on guys that aren’t difference makers (ie Rousseau, Epenesa, Basham, Shaq). Investing in Von and Oliver is one thing. They are elite talents and playmakers. It’s time to give the best player that has ever put on a Bills uniform (with the possible exception of Bruce Smith) what he needs to drag this team to a title.

That’s just not true. Since 2018 (Josh draft) the Bills have spent 2739.8 draft value pts on 6 DL; they’ve allocated 144.1 draft value points to 7 WR. If you include Diggs that’s 924.1 points. That’s an average DL draft spot of pick 44. It’s an average WR spot of 177 (96 w Diggs). The Bills continue to allocate their best resources to the defense. It hasn’t worked.

Taron is a great player. He’s one of the best handful of players on this team. This move was pretty obvious but it was the right decision. He’s a core player and now the senior member of that secondary. I like it.

If all are healthy: Diggs Rookie Kincaid Shakir Samuel Cook Knox Hollins I think that this feels right. The rookie is going to need to stretch the field because no one else does (besides Kincaid kind of). Samuel and Shakir will make plays with the ball in their hands.

He won’t get 160 again because they don’t have to force the ball to him anymore. That change has already started!! Weeks 9-18 he had 70 targets. That extrapolates to 132 on the year. That’s how Brady used him. This coincides with the emergences of Cook and Kincaid. I expect Diggs to be more effective with his targets. That’s about 8 a game. I’m not imagining anything. It’s math. Yes, I’m expecting Samuel to be used as a weapon. That’s who he is. I’m very familiar with his game (and love the signing). His impact will be in touches. He isn’t a traditional WR. He’s a playmaker. He will catch screens, get carries and run routes. Beane said that they needed more explosion. That’s what he is. He is not the downfield guy, route technician or zone buster. He’s a guy that’s dangerous with the ball in his hands. He’s a rich man’s McKenzie or a poor man’s Deebo. The guy that they are targeting in the draft is going to be with the intent of being the number 1 as soon as 2025 (potentially). WR cap numbers dictate that you can’t have a top WR and Top QB. KC let Tyreek go and then invested early picks in Moore and Rice. They will probably swing again in the top 65 picks. This is THE great WR draft. The Bills, and many other teams, are looking for a number 1 WR on a rookie deal. They aren’t trying to get the next Justin Shorter. They let Gabe walk because they wanted to UPGRADE at that position. They haven’t done that yet. They’ve met with every top end WR in Indy. I think that it’s way, way, way more likely that they move up for a WR than wait past pick 60 for the guy. The days of ignoring WR are over. You fill out your roster with bodies. In the first round, you draft pass rushers, QBs, WRs, OTs and CBs. That’s 2024. The Bills will not be taking QB or CB. They do not currently have a starting spot at OT either. They have a need at pass rusher for another guy in the rotation. That’s the only other place that they can consider in round 1 and the value isn’t really there. The value and need intersect at WR. Maybe it is AD Mitchell or Xavier Worthy? Maybe Thomas slips? McConkey is a guy that they seem to like a lot. Maybe they push their chips in and try to get to 9 of Odunze or Nabers slips? The Bears need picks. Trying to outlast KC has failed as a strategy. You’ve given up 33 PPG to them in the playoffs (at least I think that’s the number). That’s the scheme as much as the bodies coming in and out. Your focus shouldn’t be on trying to outlast them. It should be on outgunning them (and everyone else for that matter). The defensive scheme and current talent (assuming that they continue adding bodies & a S) will be no worse than middle of the league. McDermott always has a top 10 defense. The goal should be to have a top 1 offense to go with that top 10 defense. That’s how they’ll take the next step. The next step happens because of Josh Allen’s greatness. It’s no longer okay to surround Josh with bodies and hope that he elevates them all. Surround him with actual talent.

Absolutely It is an evolving point though. The positional values have changed over time. QB is always going to be at the top of the market. QB aside, WR & pass rusher are the next most expensive positions. OT and CB would come after that.

This holds especially true if you take the guy in round 1 as opposed to round 2. That 5th year option is incredibly valuable for a WR (especially when you’ll be deep into Josh’s current deal).

Curtis Samuel wasn’t signed to be the number 2. He was signed to add some explosion. As an Ohio State fan, I’m extremely familiar with his game. He will be in the backfield, the slot and outside some. He’s what they wanted from McKenzie or Harty with more running ability. He absolutely won’t be the number 2. That will come in the draft. They are trying to add a guy with number 1 upside, on a rookie deal. That’s how business is done now. In terms of targets, Diggs isn’t getting 160 again. There are another 146 targets not on the roster. It will be something like 130 for Diggs and 80 for Shakir. 110 more for Kincaid, 50 for Cook, 30 for Hollins and 55 for Samuel. 110 for the number 2 WR not on the roster. There will be another 55 or so spread across everyone else (including Knox). That has them at 620 pass attempts. Last year was 579 (with an emphasis on running the ball). 646 is Allen’s single season high. Feel free to allocate as you see fit if you don’t like my allotment. To recap (620 targets): diggs - 130 wr2 (1st or 2nd round) - 110 kincaid - 110 Shakir - 80 Samuel - 55 (another 55 carries) Cook - 50 Knox - 40 Hollins - 30 everyone else - 15

We COMPLETELY differ in how this team gets over the hump. The investment that they’ve made in defense vs. offense is insane. Trying to outlast Mahomes doesn’t work!! It hasn’t worked. Try to force them to keep up with you!! Why do we think a rookie WR will be our 5th or 6th most targeted player? 😂😂 For context, the Ravens leader in targets was a rookie, Vikings 2nd leader, rams leader, Texans leader would have been without an injury. The Bills number 2 WR is not on the roster. Why should we think that the number 2 WR will be 5th or 6th in targets? 😂😂

He has talked about the need to be more explosive. The rising WR cost makes it imperative. It’s tough to have a really expensive QB & WR. Josh will always be paid near the top of the market moving forward. They met with all of the top guys at the combine too. Generally that’s decent foreshadowing.

Because he has no choice but to have learned from it. They let Gabe walk. He was the number 2 with no competition. The guys that they have added have improved the depth at the position. There’s still the glaring hole at number 2. I also think that the Bills days of 12 personnel and balance are over. You’ll see some because the talent dictates it but this isn’t Dorsey’s offense. I believe that the Bills are going back to, give Josh the ball and get out of his way. Giving him a top end WR to go with the rest of the skill players helps achieve that. This is especially true when Diggs appears to be on the back 9.

I like the Samuel fit but not as a number 2. They can use him like SF uses Deebo. He’s a chess piece. He isn’t going to consistently be a boundary guy.

The Bills are in the same position that they were in last year at WR when they weren’t good enough. Samuel replaces Gabe/Harty and Hollins replaces Sherfield. They needed a number 2 last year and still do. There’s NOTHING more important than giving Josh weapons. With where WR contracts have gone it is even more of a priority. They likely take one with their first pick. At worst, they take one with their 2nd.

Weird used Barkley as an example. He stinks. He’s better than Peterman and seems to be a good teammate. He’s a smart guy. I understand maybe not wanting to bring someone like Cam in (even though that feels nuts). You might say that he isn’t a guy that you want breathing down the neck for a starter. You’d think a guy like Danny Etling is a better “shot” at this point than Peterman.

Both are terrible. Barkley is less terrible. He’s closer to Peterman than to the last guy on a roster but he is still in between the 2.

Lol, there are a lot of guys between “last QB on an NFL roster and Peterman.” Barkley is actually one of them. There are others as well, many of whom are closer to the last guy than Barkley.

I’ve probably done 1,000 of them at this point. I almost always take WR first. I kind of loved this most recent one though (getting the 2025 1st from Ten was a game changer):

MHJ - Arizona Odunze - Bills McConkey - Ravens Thomas Jr - Jags Worthy - Cowboys

I don’t blame them but I don’t like it either. It’s a different form of nepotism. It’s like, “he’s an easy personality to have in the room and not a real threat to the job.” More power to him, but I think it’s BS that a more qualified individual doesn’t get the opportunity because he’s a known “nice guy.”

He’s the worst player to ever play in the NFL. That’s not hyperbole. When you factor in the importance of the position, he’s the worst player ever. I never liked Peterman because I felt like he was stealing money from more deserving people. Here we are, however many years later, and he is still taking a job from someone more capable of doing the job. I’m glad he isn’t taking a roster spot on this team.