Kirby Jackson

So I made some bets this weekend. We will see if my theory works. I bet the over, the over, the over, the over and a parlay over, over, over, over.

I wasn’t skipping over anything. When the example of other teams are used why do we go to what they charge in Dallas or NY? That’s not what we are talking about. We are talking about places like Indy, Cleveland and New Orleans. The studies have been done and the market can bear more than it currently is. Again, if you want my entire detail (including numbers associated with it) it’s all on here somewhere. I just really don’t feel like going through it again. As some background (and without sounding like a know it all) I have a Master’s Degree is Sports Management and worked in pro sports for almost a decade. I worked in a situation where the team was sold twice and potentially going to be relocated. My thoughts as to what it it takes come from real world experience. I’ve been a part of the negotiations with the state, concessionaires, NBA, NBAPA, sponsors and fans. I promise you that Buffalo can sustain a lot more than it currently is. With that being said, they aren’t going to build some new stadium and start charging Dallas prices. They are going to operate near the bottom of the league in revenues but the gap between them and others will be smaller. You need to think in terms of the CBA. The Kraft’s and Jones’ of the world are going to argue for LESS of the current revenue being shared. They will argue each team should be responsible for a greater share of the pie. “Why should we subsidize the Bills of the world?” When that inevitably happens, it will be imperative that the Bills are generating more revenue to remain competitive.

Well, the prices will increase as part of it. If the average ticket price in 2019 was $105, I don’t think it’s crazy to see that average at like $125.

Man, I’ve laid out my thoughts on here a zillion times on the topic. I really don’t feel like going through it again but I’m sure it’s in the archives somewhere. Long story short, I’m guessing about 1/2 state, 1/2 private (between team and fans). That will come in the form of concession deals, PSLs, naming rights, the Pegulas themselves. The bottom line is you can’t function like a minor league team in the NFL. You’re either going to have to get with the program or get left behind. The Bills are never going to be a top 5 revenue club but they don’t need to be the least valuable team in the NFL either.

- I think you’ll see some PSL’s (but don’t think SF think Minnesota). They will be mostly in like the $500 range. There will be some higher but we aren’t talking $100k PSLs. - Additionally, they can build out around the stadium like New England. The Bills will own/control some bars and restaurants in the area and can generate revenue that way (whether directly or indirectly). They can do membership type clubs within the stadium (kind of like the Harbor Club). - They can create revenue generating assets. When we renegotiated our state deal here in New Orleans they basically offered us a check. What we countered with were some infrastructure assets that we could monetize. We felt that was a better long-term strategy. That’s why you see the video boards on the outside of the arena in NOLA. You are trying to create “things” to sell to sponsors. - You’d also have a “clean slate” with a new stadium. New Era is a weird situation where the best amenities are not tied to the best locations. In a new stadium you can pair the best locations with the best amenities to drive revenue. Think about the “Legends Club” in Yankee Stadium (obviously with lower prices). If you want to sit 1st row behind home plate, you get an open bar, 5 star buffet, etc.. That’s better than having to pick elite amenities or elite location. You can scale it out. These are just a few ways off the top of my head but there are tons and tons more.

That’s what I’m thinking. I really trust Wawrow when it comes to this stuff and that seems to be what he believes. It’s the more likely scenario for a lot of reasons. I wouldn’t say that it’s a definite at this point.

The least valuable franchise in the league: https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikeozanian/2019/09/04/the-nfls-most-valuable-teams-2019-cowboys-lead-league-at-55-billion/amp/ 30th in revenue: https://www.statista.com/statistics/193553/revenue-of-national-football-league-teams-in-2010/ They charge significantly less than other markets. The stadium doesn’t generate the other revenue streams of others, etc.. I PROMISE, PROMISE, PROMISE, a new stadium or complete renovation ($500M+) will be happening. This is not something that “might” happen.

-The NFL ratings are up again. -The NFL cares about revenues 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, etc... - The Bills are at or near the bottom of the league in local revenues. That’s a competitive disadvantage that will become an even bigger disadvantage with the new CBA - A new stadium is coming or a complete renovation (new stadium more likely) This really isn’t a complicated situation. You need to generate more money to compete. The Pegula’s know this. It will come in the form of a public/private partnership as most are these days. This isn’t an “if” conversation, it is a “when” conversation.

I just know what I’ve heard from the Steelers people and it was pretty much done. It doesn’t look good for anyone the way that it ended so I think that’s why the narrative came out as it did. It’s easier to say “everyone was misinformed” than to say “we thought it was done and were wrong.” Maybe you’re right and it wasn’t there. The truth is probably somewhere in between. Either way, the point being that they are willing to look into suspect characters remains. The whole “process guy” thing shouldn’t impact our line of thinking this offseason. I’m not saying that the Bills will bring in Greg Hardy, Tyreke Hill, and Johnny Manziel, etc... We should not however, be at all surprised if we see a guy or 2 that aren’t stereotypical “process guys.” The culture and leadership is in place that they would now be comfortable with a guy with some questions. If the Bills were to trade for OBJ (as an example) we shouldn’t be shocked. The Bills aren’t only looking at stereotypical “process guys” at this point. They are looking at EVERYONE that they think can make them better. Their pursuit of Antonio Brown is all the evidence that we need.

That seems to be the general feeling. It’s unlikely any of them see 15 IMO. We need guys that keep coordinators up at night. We don’t have a guy that does that but Josh. We need to stop with the antiquated thinking that “because we have speed we now need size” or vice versa. In the analytics world sports have changed. The Rockets are playing a lineup of guys 6’6” and below. They just killed the best team in basketball. They aren’t worried about “we are too small.” They are forcing teams to adjust to their game. The same thing that the Chiefs do with speed. They dictate what happens. The Bills don’t need a certain type of guy because they don’t have it. They need guys that are elite playmakers. If they are WR, TE, RB, 4’10”or 7’3”. It really doesn’t matter. We are so set on passing on superior talent because we have guys like them. That’s a MASSIVE mistake IMO. Get the best talent and then put them in a position to maximize that ability. I’ll get off my soapbox because this isn’t the thread for this. Sorry Virgil!!

He’s 15 on McShay’s big board, 11 on Matt Miller’s big board, 12 on Daniel Jeremiah’s big board, etc... Not sure how he is “a huge reach at 15?”

I may be in the minority but the more I hear, at least at this point, I don’t want Shenault or Higgins. Shenault is too raw and Higgins has a lower ceiling. Again, that is my opinion but we don’t need “another guy.” We need “a guy.”

We had the terms worked out but couldn’t reach the terms we needed with him. If Antonio Brown agreed, he would have been on the Bills. The point being the Bills were (and will be) willing to overlook a suspect character if they think he helps them win. That’s why it’s stupid, at this point, to cross guys off the list because they aren’t “process guys.” That’s dead. The culture and leadership is in place. The Bills will look at anyone and everyone that fits a need at the right price.

That’s exactly the point. They wanted a year or 2 to establish their expectations and build a strong locker room. Once that happened all bets were off. Antonio Brown is, arguably, the worst person in the league (or at least one of them). There is NOBODY that the Bills won’t consider if the talent, price, need and fit make sense.

This may not be the place but can we PLEASE stop with the whole “process guy” thing. We traded for Antonio Brown last year!! The Bills certainly value culture but they absolutely value talent.

BB trades up as often as he trades back. The Saints trade up a lot too. I don’t buy you shouldn’t trade up AT ALL. It depends on your roster situation and where the drop offs are. if you have Ruggs, Lamb, and Jeudy graded as top 15 players and the next tier Ayiuk, Shenault, Reagor, Higgins or whomever graded at 25 and below I’m all for trading up. This is the year to go after the best of the best even if it results in fewer bites at the apple. The Bills have 9 draft picks this year. They are not going to have 9 rookies on the roster. 2 years ago they may have done that. Those picks are currency to target players that make you better. The difference between player 53 and 54 is infinitely less important than the difference between player 22 and 23. That’s the point. The Bills have “good enough players” at the back of their roster like Daryl Johnson, Tommy Sweeney, etc.. that they shouldn’t care if it’s them or someone else. They need players at the top of the roster to make them better. You pay a premium in terms of picks and cap dollars to get those types of players.

If we drafted Evans, Mack or OBJ it would have been a great decision. Sammy was considered the best WR in years and was the highest rated player on the Bills board over a 2 or 3 year span (and not just the Bills). They had a need and tried to grab an elite talent with a high floor and ceiling. His floor is where he has ended up but it’s still “productive starting WR with injury issues.” The Bills don’t need “bodies” this year. This roster needs some difference makers. If ever there was a time to trade 2 bodies for 1 star it is now. If they believe there is a drop off after Jeudy, Ruggs and Lamb, they should try to go get them. While another Brown or Beasley caliber guy makes them better, a guy that you have to scheme for makes everyone better. You could have argued a year ago that DT wasn’t a big need with Star, Phillips and Phillips. The best player on the board was Ed Oliver and he will be elite. They took the elite talent and are better for it.

Also @Virgil thank you for doing this again this year!! This is possibly the best, most fun thread each year (and time that we do it). It’s a lot of work on your end but everyone ends up having a good time with it and takes it seriously. ?

This x 1000!! We get so obsessed with certain positions, and skill sets. “We need a big receiver who is open when he’s not.” “We need a RB to pound between the tackles.” How about just get good players with elite skills? Get the talent and then figure out how to maximize it. The best boss that I ever had believed in this. When we were interviewing people, he used to say, “if they are the right person bring them on the bus and we can figure out where they sit later.” That has always stuck with me and couldn’t agree more. Stop worrying about “someone already being in their seat” and “get them on the bus.”

Whoops

Ha ha ha, I still have another

We have a trade!! The Las Vegas Raiders have traded picks 80, 81, 86 and 95 for picks 34 and 139. With the 34th pick, Bucky Larson and the Las Vegas Raiders select Jalen Reagor, WR, TCU because of course they do. @NewEra and the Giants are on the clock

Delpit was already selected

I’ll take whomever. I have 5 3rd rounders as the Raiders so will be looking to move into this round as well

Id just assume go through round 3 where I have 5 picks!!