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Everything posted by Kirby Jackson
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Chances Bills play first game of wildcard weekend?
Kirby Jackson replied to Negan's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
I don’t know the Texans have played 5 Saturday games in this round I think. The 6 seed is either going to be a really bad team (Pittsburgh/Oakland) or a team no one cares about (Titans). That feels like the early Sunday game to me. -
Chances Bills play first game of wildcard weekend?
Kirby Jackson replied to Negan's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
I’m thinking the late game Saturday. If I had to guess it will be Vikings - 3 seed early, Bills - Texans late, 6 seed vs. Chiefs early Sunday, 5 seed vs. NFC East winner late Sunday -
This is kind of where I’m at. Tre has been every bit as good as Gilmore this year and has done so on an equally dominant defense. Gilmore has run a couple back but that’s pretty much the only difference. The people in the camp that “Gilmore is DPOY” have to look at Tre in a very similar manner. He’s been a dominant player and should be 1st team all-pro.
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So the injury rate is the same at 7 days OR 14 days? I wonder what the injury rate is like at 7 AND 14 days? I don’t have the data in front of me but I’d have to think that people are more likely to get hurt playing 2 NFL games than 1? I’m discounting it in this case because there is ZERO upside. Even if it was as little as moving from the 6 seed to the 5 seed I’d be fine with it. The Bills could play the best game in franchise history or the worst and be in the exact same place the following week. The flip side of the coin is the value of “rhythm” but the Bills have been good off of rest. McDermott hasn’t lost off of a bye. Maybe an extra week of health and prep is MORE important than rhythm? Our queen has spoken:
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Oh I agree 100%. I just don’t think Josh is much different the following week with or without that 1 practice. It isn’t just Josh either because you can multiply it by every important guy. Anyone getting dinged is a mess. They are 5-0 off their last 5 byes. We do we think that rhythm is better than rest?
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You are more likely to get hurt playing an NFL game than not. If Josh Allen stands on the sideline on Sunday he is less likely to get hurt than playing. You’ve already agreed. He is going to do one of those two things. My opinion is “do what is less likely to injure him.” You are saying “do what is more likely to injure him.” We aren’t even debating that. We are in agreement. Josh has gotten better. The next week’s game hasn’t always been better than the week before. It’s been some up and down but Josh is improving. He’s going to be good and he’s tough in big games. It would be a disaster if he didn’t have a chance in the biggest game of his career.
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Yep, it is a HUGE difference!!! If you get hurt in a meaningful game so be it. It’s the 4th preseason game argument!! You have nothing to gain getting hurt then. If you get hurt when it matters, it happens. If you get hurt when it doesn’t matter it’s a TERRIBLE decision. I’m sorry but if you can’t see the difference between the importance of this game and the game the following week we should stop talking. This is a RIDICULOUS argument. It’s kind of beyond ridiculous. If you want guys to play, we disagree. If you think getting hurt in a game that means nothing and getting hurt in a playoff game are the same thing we VEHEMENTLY disagree.
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Then why bring up the “you could get hit by a bus argument?” We both agree that guys are more likely to get hurt playing in an NFL game. You just said that. I’m saying “I’d rather see Josh Allen stand on the sidelines and not get hurt.” You are saying “I want him to play even though he is more likely to get hurt.” Again, the “game experience” argument is BS. We have won after every loss this year so we bounce back fine. We scored 31 points out of the bye, 2nd highest of the year. Maybe rest is the key to being sharp? There is nothing to support rest not helping.
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Let me ask one more question on that. Which of these scenarios do you prefer? - A) Bills beat the Jets 35-0 and outgain them 5-1. Josh Allen suffers a high ankle sprain and won’t play for 4 to 6 weeks. - B) Bills get beat 35-0 and are outgained 5-1. They enter the following week with the same health as this week
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Here are some stars that have missed games this year because of injury: Dalvin Cook, Chris Carson, Drew Brees, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Julio Jones, JJ Watt, Pat Peterson, Patrick Mahomes, and Alvin Kamara. I could name dozens more but won’t. Every single one of those guys was injured WHILE playing NFL football. If you don’t think that injuries happen in NFL games I don’t know what to tell you. Sticking your fingers in your ears yelling “la la la la la la la la” doesn’t change the risk of playing this game at this level. They have ZERO to gain!!!!! This isn’t complicated. All that can happen is bad stuff. If they win 52-0 and look like a machine what advantages do they get in their championship pursuit? They scored 31 points off their bye. The Bills are 4-0 off of a loss coming into this week. I’m not sure how one can reasonably make the “contagious” argument? It isn’t real.
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1 quarter will be 16 plays based on the average Bills game. I don’t want any of those important players exposed to 16 chances for injuries. This holds especially true playing against a real NFL defense instead of the vanilla pro bowl defense of preseason game 4. 1 injury and it’s a nightmare. 2 scoring drives and it’s meaningless. Again, our 2nd best offensive output of the season was off of a bye week. I guess I can keep saying it over and over but no one will ever convince me that this is a good idea. You can stick your hand near a fire and not get burned. You can stick your hand near a fire and get burned. The outcome doesn’t make it a good decision to stick your hand near the fire.
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I believe health is WAY, WAY, WAY more important than a couple of plays in a meaningless game. Maybe we are just so new to winning that we don’t get it but one injury, even to a guy like Milano or Dawkins and it is an ABSOLUTELY awful decision. It is one that will be questioned for decades. You have nothing to gain and everything to lose. Also, our second highest scoring output of the season game off of the bye week. Why is it not okay to believe that resting the aches and pains will make us better than another week in the grind? There is no evidence to support that they will be better by playing. The only definite is that we are increasing the chance of injury. All risk, no reward
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I feel like a lot of people are giving McDermott the benefit of the doubt because he’s done a great job. Doing a great job and being perfect aren’t the same thing. There is no logic in this decision. Harbaugh has done a great job too and is resting his guys. Being locked into a playoff spot is a reward for a great year. Take advantage of that by making sure you’re healthy in the playoffs. Don’t risk it.
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I think this is fair. The problem is that you are drafting guys on what they will/can be not what they are today. That’s why Josh went in the top 10. 2 years in there is no reason to believe that the future of Baker or Darnold is brighter than that of Josh. Talent evaluators would absolutely roll the dice on the upside of Josh at this point before more established players.