djp14150
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On 2/7/2024 at 12:14 AM, Old Coot said:
Wall Street Journal had an interesting article on the use of condensed formations which it attributed to Mike Shanahan when he coached the Broncos. His son Kyle Shanahan uses them extensively with the 49ers. I have noticed that the Bills occasionally used condensed formations last year.
A condensed formation is the opposite of a spread formation. Instead of spreading the O across the field, the WRs are in close to the line and even the OL line splits may be reduced.
The condensed formations are said to have two advantages:
1. The open up the middle for passing. How so? The D needs to be concerned about all the open space toward the sidelines which the WRs and RBs have to operate and that opens up the middle to in breaking routes.
2. A spread formation likely signls pass but the condensed formation could be run or pass. I noticed that the Bills last year seemed to have more success running up the middle from a condensed formation.
What are your thoughts?
reasons for them….1. Bunch to create short pass WR screens and runs. These rely on speed and blovking ability.
2. Bunch to get a WR off a jam play or to pick a DB in play design
3. spread creates more 1 on 1 isolation plays if you get mismatches in height or speed or quickness you could exploit it, the D might be man to man low with 2 deep safeties and 5 pass rushers and 6 blocking. A team with very good man on man cover corners can defend this well and safeties concentrate on the top WR or weaker DB
4 a tight bunch formation can open up sweep running plays by a RB or QB if you have good blocking WRs and a QB/RB who can get to the outside where the bunch receivers are blocking for you.
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7 hours ago, Chaos said:
I am hopeful this thread avoids discussions of specific coaching or players.
Here are some facts that are not in dispute:
- The Bills have had more regular season success than virtually any other NFL team in the last 5 years.
- The Bills have not translated the regular season succes into deep playoff runs
Here is a commonly held opinions:
- Playoff football is different than regular season football. (I am personally on the fence on whether or not this is true)
For purposes of this thread discussion I would like to stipulate that Playoff Football IS different than regular season football. Here is the question:
Are their any significant football strategic changes that could be made, that would result in playing better "Playoff Football"? If so what are those changes?
Alternatively, its fine to respond "flawed premise, the gap between playoff success and regular season success is because the Bills are less talented, or unluckier than the teams that win the Super Bowl"
KC has been better in regular season.
2019 AFC WC, JA 17 first loss to Houston in OT.
2020 AFC con final loss at KC
2021 AFC Div loss at KC in 13 sec/OT
2022 AFC div loss to Cincinnati ( the team seemed gassed in this game givrn what happened with Hamlin)
2023 AFC div loss to KC on missed FG late in game
All the eliminations came down to a handful of plays except for the Cincy loss. It’s hard to say was it a play call the coaches made thst was wrong or did a player on the field not do something they should have.
you might have a question if they didn’t show up in the playoffs but that’s not the case.
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Thread bump…..
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Is a candidate this board after a lost game or just after a failed season?
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7 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:
If going 11-6 and not winning MVP is what it takes for Josh to not come out and give games away (a la NYJ week 1), I’m all for it. The league is all about winning, not just making great plays.
where was Allen on the OT punt return that won it for the jets…….. -
54 minutes ago, Lost said:
We'll be cycling back to cable being cheaper than streaming in a few years.
Yep…..
I’ve said this before.
vable is a de facto consolidator or all the stations , satelittes do that too. Streaming will e rntually get thst way where a companies consolidate all the programming into one stop shop.
thr cost factor is if commercials/ sponsors subsidize the content or do consumers pay more for no commercials beyond live broadcasts.
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On 2/3/2024 at 11:57 AM, st pete gogolak said:
Our base D seemingly forever now has been a 4 - 2 - 5. If Dorian Williams makes the same jump between first and second year as Bernard (yeah, I know, BIG if), why not play some 4 - 3 - 4 to get Milano, Bernard and Williams on the field at the same time, simply as a change of pace?
Better yet, if we move to 4 - 3 as our base D, it can solve some immediate problems on D without signing a bunch of FA’s or depending on rookies to start. Is there any reason Taron Johnson can’t be full time starting FS? Good tackler, ball hawk, veteran. Keep Poyer another year as SS. CB’s are Douglas and Benford. Elam can come in as nickel, maybe even play some press against slot or TE to take advantage of his supposed strengths. Milano, Bernard and Williams at LB with Spector giving some vet depth. Up front, Rousseau, Oliver, DQ (only FA signing) and Miller.
Of course, still need to go heavy on D in draft (after going WR in #1). Find next year’s replacements for Poyer, Jones and Miller early and draft some CB’s late. Ideally, you’d like to find a starting DE to allow Miller to play third-down pass rushing specialist (maybe find a way to squeeze money for AJE).
is it ideal? No. But I think it’s realistic given the cap constraints.
They could do a 3-3-5 and blitz a LB/DB
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8 hours ago, Tuco said:
Yeah there's lots of "rules" and requests the league tries to adhere to when making the schedule. A lot has to do with the TV markets not competing with each other for teams in the same market. Basically, in addition to using the same stadium, the Jets and Giants almost never play at the same time. Used to be the same with the Raiders and Niners. Now it's the Raiders and Chargers. To a lesser extent they try to keep the Ravens and Commanders from playing at the same time as their TV markets overlap. Then throw in other stadium conflicts with MLB or Olympics or whatever and the league trying not to schedule 3 game road trips unless they really have to. It gets pretty complicated.
Throw in more and more networks competing for quality prime-time games while CBS and FOX lobby to keep their top matchups. Then there's other things. The Jets and Giants, in addition to not playing at the same time, always request road games during certain Jewish holidays as their Jewish fans can't be out after dark or something like that. Last year the league scheduled the Jets at home during one of these holidays and caught a lot of grief for it. So usually on whatever weekend that falls on the Jets and Giants will both be on the road and at different times.
There's been articles written that talk about just how many requests they get and try to deal with. Teams like the Bills don't want to play in Miami in September. Miami doesn't want to play in Buffalo in January. It's impossible to keep everyone happy. But no doubt there's a hierarchy where some factions have more pull than others. I would imagine TV networks and stadium conflicts along with the league's desire to have lots of division matchups late are at the top of the list.
yes there are many other factors with shared stadiums in LA and NY.
I live in DC area. Generally DC and Baltimore aren’t on the same network at the same time. They do place at the same time. Similarly NY and LA teams can play at the same time just not on same network. Because of shared stadium therr is a higher likelihood of non sunday games being played there. That’s why I wouldn’t be surprised if bills at rams and bills at jets are not on Sunday. Safe bet Ravens at chargers ( brother coaches face off) on a Monday night in early October avoiding early baseball playoff conflict were ravens at home .
some of these blackout dates for home games are regular like the stadium hosting high school championship games or college games, bowl season or regular season. For example a Norte dame at navy game will be played in Baltimore or Washington stadiums. I expect the new nashville football stadium will be a regular venue for SEC championship games. Washington nee football stadium probably hosts ACC or big 10 championship and probably hosts a bowl game.
Houston stadium has a big Xmas shopping season event like the weekend of thxgvg or the weekend sfter so no games there. Other stadiums have concerts on Saturday in Sept- Nov.
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2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:
This is one of those deep dives into stats that I think is pretty meaningless. What are we, or the Bills, supposed to do with this data? Redesign the offense to make sure they complete some deep passes over the middle? To what end?
Think about it: First, remember that all teams have gone to defenses to stop deep throws, and against the Bills they double down on those efforts, because Allen can so deadly. When teams have two deep safeties, throwing down the middle is the last place you want to go, because both safeties have a chance to make a play. The sidelines deep offer better opportunities. I would guess that deep middle throws are prone to higher interception rates.
Second, if the Bills were reasonably successful on the 15 deep balls they threw in the middle, that's like 40%. So that's six more completions on the season, and if each was for 30 yards, that's 180 yards, or on average 10 yards per game. Now, I'm just as interested as the next guy in getting 10 yards more per game, but how much time should Bills invest in deep middle throws to get those ten yards?
Third, has anyone looked at the stats? I haven't, but I'm sure some other team had an abysmal record on deep left throws, and some other team did on deep right throws. These throws are a sliver of the offensive attempts in a game - one or two plays out of fifty, and that smaller of a sample size is always going to generate interesting - but not meaningful - outliers.
I would expect that the Bills have seen this data, and I expect that they are studying it, like everything else, to see whether anything meaningful is behind. But as I said, if there were something meaningful and if it were corrected, at best it's going to have incidental impact on production. Yes, of course, the team should improve in every area, but this hardly should be a focal point.
Fans wanted to get rid of Tyrod Taylor when he had bad numbers throwing into the middle middle. Should we now move on from Josh Allen because he has bad numbers in the deep middle?
Slicing and dicing data into smaller and smaller pieces rarely leads to any useful knowledge.
I generally agree. I don’t know what the yardage cut off is between short and long. Teams played a deep center shell against the Bills and Allen scrambled which changes where he throws. -
6 hours ago, corta765 said:
It is that time again where I can start filling everyone in on quirks and things you can already piece together. Yes the SB is not done but the matchup already has given some pieces so here we go:
-The Bills will not play opening night. The Bills host the Chiefs and 49ers in 2024 so while those games certainly have primetime potential it will not be week 1 against the SB champion. Had it been DET or BAL who won the Bills would've been a possibility
-The Bills have opened the past two years in primetime on the road (Rams 22' Opening Night & Jets 23' MNF (yikes)) so historically expect a home and for those 1pm fans potentially a game at 1pm. It is possible they end up at primetime at home, but coaches love 1pm games and I won't be surprised if McD and crew ask for a normal opener
-The Bills are not in Europe this year as they have no opponents they are traveling to who are in Europe. (NFL Euro home teams Vikings, Panthers, Jags, & Bears)
-BUT the Bills possibly may be on the road in Brazil. The NFL is playing a game in Sao Paulo Brazil and the big rumor is the Dolphins would be the home team. Last year the NFL sent a premier matchup to Europe with the Dolphins hosting the Chiefs. Typically the NFL avoids divisional games abroad, but it isn't impossible the Bills head under the equator.
-With the Bills home for 8 games and on the road for 9 games expect a stretch of either 3 in a row on the road or 3 of 4. I checked the schedules for DAL/PHI/SF/MIN for 2023 all who were playoff teams in 2022 and every one of them had a stretch of three roadies out of four as the NFC was the 9 game conference last year. The NFL is very rythemic and predictable with things like this.
-The Bills already have two games at least at 4pm as they travel to the LA Rams and Seattle Seahawks, although I would bet one of the two is a night game. The 49ers and Cardinals come to Buffalo but that does not guarantee a 4:00pm game as the Bills in 2016 hosted both teams at 1:00pm. The 49ers and Bills were on MNF in 2020 so I could see the FOX/CBS petitioning for the 4pm spot as they missed out in 2020. The Cardinals I would guess may be 1pm, but then again the Bills hosted the Bucs/Giants/Broncos (with on the G-Man making any sense marketability wise) last year all at night so who the heck knows lol.
-The Bills played the NFL max of 7 primetime games last season and I would guess similar in 2024 as a team can play in 6 and get flexed into a 7th week 18. The Bills home schedule includes SF/KC/MIA and road schedule includes HOU/DET/BAL/SEA/MIA/LA who all were playoff teams minus SEA. That isn't even considering the Jets with Rodgers back or the Colts with Richardson either. The one positive if you are a fan of 1pm games is 2xNE/JAX/TEN/ARZ all feel like pretty easy locks for 1pm and even bigger games like Bills v MIA can be 1pm. Last year PIT hosted the 49ers at 1pm which was a national broadcast. I wouldn't hold my breath for that, but with the SEA/LA games already at 4pm I can easily see one later taking away a primetime game. Long story short if the Bills have 7 1 pm starts that feels very possible even with the other 9 games being at 4 pm or night.
That is enough updates for today, but I will leave you one last prediction. The Bills will play the Patriots by week 4 and be finished with playing NE by the first week of December. The Bills have not played New England early in the season since 2019 and for some reason finished with the Patriots in the final three weeks of the season 7 years running. The Patriots hype dies as the league prioritizes Miami and a potentially revived Jets squad instead late.
excluding 3 road/ home games in row with a bye in between…..the league DOES NOT schedule 3 in a row. The 3 in the row come about in final adjustments in flipping weeks before schedule gets published.The scheduling is a constraint satisfaction problem. I understand this fully. They set the national games and thxgvg, special day, foreign site games first. From there they fill in schedules. This takes into account schedule conflicts like in Seattle, Baltimore, KC, and others that have baseball and football stadiums next to each other. Look at the baseball schedules. If mariners is home on opening weekend fri-wed. Seattle opens on the road. They also take into account other events like concerts and other events in the area. Teams submit to the league scheduling office on these conflicts.
they create a subset of games that is used to decide the national games ( including 425 games). You can go through and take games from divisional, inter league, div vs div same conf, placement games, other games of note ( rematch in playoffs), former coach/ QB/ big name player returning, Thursday having all teams on it, younger up and coming teams thry likely get an earlier national game than one in December that gets flexed out, and bye weeks like around overseas game. It’s far easier in scheduling to do this in advance than try to get them in the schedule. In the past few years you have seen 2 teams from thxgvg face each other on Thursday the week before or after is not some schedule luck. It was pre- planned. Similarly teams who have nearby baseball stadium….they try to build schedule flexibility in case games need to be moved. It’s a first game of divisional teams or the two teams share the same bye week. Stadiums like these are Seattle, Baltimore, Detroit, KC, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and others.
there is caps on national game scheduling in prime time. They added other rules around divisional game scheduling where both are not on prime time national tv.
it’s possible the bills 2 west coast games get scheduled for the same trip. It can be one on Sunday, followed by one on Thursday.
um …divisional games in last weeks….just about all teams have 2-3 divisional games post thxgvg week on their schedule. Usually a 1 vs 2 in division is one of them. Expect bills playing jets or dolphins in thr final weeks. Sincr patriots changing coaches I don’t expect a late NE game over the last 3 weeks.
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On 1/29/2024 at 12:09 PM, DCOrange said:
I doubt Legette will be my preferred choice (or even one that I'd be happy with in general), but I wouldn't be surprised if he's one of the guys we consider. Having said that, Dane Brugler reported earlier this morning that most teams have a 3rd round grade on Legette, and that could potentially fall further after he measured 2-3 inches shorter than expected. He does admittedly have the physical traits to potentially really impress people, but I think there's a lot of physical traits types in this class and I'd probably rather opt for one of the younger ones if we go that route.
A few thoughts on the QBs as that's really the only position I've really scouted thus far:
- I'm very early in my Penix review but I really liked what I've seen thus far. We'll see if that continues.
- Along the same wavelengths as the Brugler report on Legette, he also discussed Penix vs. Bo Nix and basically said Penix is currently viewed as a late 2nd or 3rd round prospect. He also added that he wouldn't be surprised if Michael Pratt ultimately jumps over Penix. Nix is viewed as a borderline 1st and could potentially go as high as top 10 if he has a strong Senior Bowl week.
- I ended up with a 4th round grade on Jayden Daniels (though I may watch some more film to try to understand what other people are seeing that I'm not), so needless to say, I'd be thrilled if the Patriots take him in the top 3.
- I have JJ as my #3 QB at the moment but only a 2nd round grade on him. I know most of the draft media thinks he'll be a 1st rounder, potentially to Seattle.
Lastly, I think I'd lean towards Odunze over Nabers at the moment, but that's really just based off of some stuff I noticed while watching their QBs on All 22 as well as some of the metrics that I've posted in the WR thread.
Who had him as a third round grade? I don’t know his numbers in terms of speed/ strength.
Outside of issues of system fit like team already has a big WR and wants more of a slot one. I think he fits ehst buffalo is looking for.
if he seems to have dropped on boards, buffalo might be inclined to trade down and still pick him.
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1 hour ago, WotAGuy said:
Can’t wait to hear the whining about McDermott’s puppet. Go!
What about the…” we didn’t hire someone with passed HC experience that we can replace him with, so how can we fire him now”
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8 hours ago, bobobonators said:
Why do the Bills always play this song on gamedays? The song is 20yrs old and, as far as I’m aware, has zero relevance to Buffalo.
In my opinion, playing this song comes off as tacky, outdated and simply put: embarrassing.
1. Why do we play this song?
2. Who is responsible for selecting the playlist on game days.
Any info would be greatly appreciated.
History lesson
the song was nothing…
then a European soccer team in Belgium adopted the song as its fight song and then it went to Italy, Italy adopted it on its World Cup run in 2006 , caught on and has been adopted around sports
https://www.npr.org/2018/07/11/626288758/american-anthem-world-cup-white-stripes-seven-nation-army
https://deadspin.com/how-the-song-seven-nation-army-conquered-the-sports-w-5875933links are sone of many
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Given the point in thr game and situation….hr should have kicked the FG restoring the 3 score/17 point lead.
you don’t know the psychology on the FG made vs the cheer of a D stop. SF got ball at 28 which is the same as 25. Can assume they go out and get a TD, and thr following turnover to TD. I don’t recall a situation of go for it on 4 th in FG range vs kick a FG being down 17. If SF was down say 17 or 10 thry might have kicked a FG instead of 4 th doen attempt.
2. I would have waited till 4 th to consider a run.
interesting fact. If they were stopped inside the 1 bring down 10– they had a high probability of getting a safety, get ball back and get a TD+2 than getting a TD/FG/ onside kick/FG/TD score.
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7 hours ago, wppete said:
McBeane has had some success picking from rounds 4 - 7. Hopefully this draft with the amount of picks we have in those rounds they continue to find gems. Here are just a few. Add to the list if you can think of more.
Matt Milano - Round 5
Taron Johnson - Round 4
Khalil Shakir - Round 5
Christian Benford - Round 6
Gabe Davis - Round 4
Here are this year’s picks. I think we also get this year a 3rd round comp pick for losing Tremaine.
Buffalo Bills Draft Picks By Round In 2024
Round 1
Round 2
Round 4
Round 5 (from GB)
Round 5
Round 6 (from LAR)
Round 6
Round 6 (from HOU)
Round 7
Buffalo is expected to get a comp late in the 3rd
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Just starting this now since media start to talk about commercials airing shown as well as those rejected/ disapproved
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Probsbly be looking up at a grave stone….
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59 minutes ago, Lenigmusx said:
It’s an unfortunate reality that Poyer and Hyde are done. They empty their tanks in Bills Red, White and Blue. I think Hyde will retire. Poyer I’m not sure yet.
That said I think the plan for next year may already be laid out with some personnel we have and a free agent acquisition. I think Rapp with be resigned and I think the improvements in Cam Lewis and a fully recovered Damar Hamlin can provide the necessary depth. I think Lewis although listed as a corner could move into Poyer role. It will be a downgrade from 2 years ago but a sideways move from last year.
There are not many good free agents I think we could target but I do think Alohi Gilman from the Chargers could be there for the taking. He is a very good cover Saftey who is used to running the back end. He fits McDermott’s scheme and could replace Hyde and maybe provide the back end speed we lacked last year.
I also think a healthy Benford, Douglas, Johnson, White, Jackson, Elam and Neal mean maybe shifting Elam to Saftey or one of the others could work. Neal has played Saftey but him seeing the field on D has been a scary proposition.
I also think a couple mid round picks that will hopefully contribute are necessary at both Corner, Saftey, LB and 1 Tech DT.
The gloom and doom over the defense though I think is overblown. If it looked like this to start it would be solid, if not still top 10:
(27 players 2 or 3 on PS)Floyd Jones Oliver Rousseau
(Lawson) (Settle) (Anjou) (Miller) (Johnathan)(Draft-1 tech)
Milano Bernard
(Williams) (Spector)
(Draft)
Benford Johnson Douglas
(White) (Neal) (Jackson)
(Draft)
FA- Gilman Rapp
(Hamlin) (Lewis)
(Draft)
assuming Hyde/ Poyer are done….
if they keep Douglas and Johnson with Branford, Elam, tre they are fine at CB
sone of the CBs can move to FS
they draft a SS or a lighter LB with speed eho can play in a SS role covering TEs and join in runnsupport
i look at the D being a 4-2-5 with Milano, Bernard, and recent drafted players playing LBs. If you have that hybrid…at DB..both Johnson snd tre have bern strong in blitzing/ run support. They could look at it as straight CBs in DB roles with a converted LB fir TE/ run support.
I see their drafting….
1&2 — I think a WR with speed ( not a slot) or it could be hybrid TE with size/ speed where they could use Kincaid as a #2. And the other pick would be a DL
expect a late 3rd comp pick—I think they trade up using a 5 th and 6th
4th, 2 5th 3 6th, 7th
with 4 latter picks would be—(1) CB/S/ LB to SS player (2) interior OL, (3) TE, (4) depending on what thr pick high DE/DT, they take the otherof course free agent signings and losses change things.
I think they will attract some cheap free agents who want to prove themselves and get bigger exposure With Buffalo being a high profile team getting 10+ games on national tv/ primary game they do well and then cash in on a bigger contract.
Candidate games next year for
espn/ nbc/ lone or clear A game 425 — SF, KC, at DET, at Rams, at SEA , at balt , home Miami game, at jets game,NE game , one of hou/ Indy/ JAX
Thursday game would be either one of AFC south, at jets, or they do a single west trip where they play at rams and at seattle on consecutive weeks with one being on Thursday night likely rams.
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4 hours ago, mabden said:
Shakir is our slot receiver that can line up outside on occasion.
The team needs a burner with great hands to challenge the defense down the field on a consistent basis.
That receiver is currently not on the team. We should be able to draft one in the first round this year.
The receiver they signed for camp. KJ Hamler, a mid 2nd round pick 2020 by denver, played for Penn state has under 4.4 speed. Hrs small at 5-9 and had issues route running and drops.
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His comparison is wrong. Detroit got a bunch of picks from trading players. Their current QB was a throw in.
I don’t know the depth of the draft with positions
i think one of their top 2 should be on WR, the other top 2 should be on defense. A safety,and a DL.
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12 hours ago, ngbills said:
I agree. The old 6 format or go to 8 (no byes or byes for top 4 (div winners all get byes). Do not like the 1 team getting a bye. Its a long season the difference between the 1 seed in many cases is just luck in what teams you played, etc.
if div winners get byes you are suggesting 12 teams get in the playoffs. 5-12, 6-11, 7-10, 8-9 play in first round.
you could do a
5-8 and 6-7
winners play 3 and 4
winners play 1 and 2
if you go to 4 divisions…top 3 get byes, 4 v 5 cross over div play then you have quarter finals. In current div format this is 4 div winners and top 2 WCs get byes then 7-10, 8-9 are the wild cards.
top 3 in conf gets byes then 4-13 do a wildcard leading to quarterfinals
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Kelly took to 7th season to make thr SB post drsft year.
2024 is JA 7 th season post draft
Super Bowl commercials thread
in The Stadium Wall
Posted · Edited by djp14150
Remember…local stations get ad slots. Some are just broadcast in local slots of top 20 markets. Buffalo is one for this purpose.