I will try to give you an example of what I am trying to say.
Let's say I played T-ball for 2 years. My first year, I played decently, with a .800 batting average. My second year, I was missing much more than my first year, and I had .200. My career average may be .500, but that doesn't really tell the whole story, or my trajectory does it? I played much worse my second year than my first. That's reality.
And personally, I don't feel you can say, "you'll bat .500 next year, because that's your average."