Mango

This feels out of the blue to me. But I’ll trust that there’s some legs to this if Vegas is giving us the best odds. A 2nd feels waaaay too high. This is the last year of his contract. I’m not sure I’d trade Davis straight up. Maybe a 5th that becomes a 4th with an extension? I love Henry, but he has some miles on him. With rumors of Hopkins getting moved I’d consider them both. Maybe Davis and a 3rd for Hopkins and Henry? Throw in a 4th in 2025 if they want more. I’m not sure how much I’d spend on this. Spotrac is awesome, but I wish they did a better job of sharing “trading x player has y result on the receiving teams cap”. I can figure it out, but on mobile it’s brutal….which I am on right now.

I think Knox being out could be a bit of a blessing if we can get another RB in the room. After seeing Kincaid “go off” (using that lightly) against the Pats; I would love to see us regularly see looks with Diggs, Kincade, Cook, and Murray. Harris going out made that difficult because we need another back to spell the other 2. Being able to have Henry in the mix could be huge even if he’s lost a step. But from a personnel perspective, if the defense goes big we should be able to split Kincaid/Cook out/get them in space, and if they go nickel and should be able to pound the rock. I’d run a lot of play action and boot legs. At that point Davis, Harty, Sherfield, Shakir all become role players, targeted to attack certain looks. I’d run a lot of play action and boot legs. That said, it seems like McBeane dating back to Daboll have a kink for receiving backs only to never actually dress them or throw them the ball.

This only makes any sense if you ignore everything else. Dorsey has been Allen’s QB coach since 2019. Allen also hand picked Dorsey to be his OC. The same way Allen has picked his own back QB’s, and the way we gave his college roommate a job on the practice squad. Hell, the new stadium will be the house that Allen built. When Josh talks the franchise listens. Maybe your train of thought makes sense to some. But a lot of these traits on offense have been pestering me for a few seasons going back to 2019. I’ve pounded the table that these are things he’ll have to get better at or it will affect his longevity in the league and the long term success of the franchise. Always tossing the big play any distance and any down, not seeing open receivers, being late to throw, these are all things that have been brought up under Daboll too. But players can’t complete low percentage plays for eternity, especially at QB.

Everything isn’t the QB’s fault all the time. But QB’s are the only player on the field who is in charge of distributing the ball to anybody else, calling the play, and setting protections. In season you will rarely of ever get a new RT. Or more explosive WR. But your QB can make a number of decisions every play that make those things in easier. Don’t get me wrong. WR is a problem. Spencer Brown is an issue. But we have to play around that for the next few months and the QB has more control than anybody to do that. For me it’s easy to say “Tyrod sucked at a,b,c” but I always reference players of Josh’s caliber as “he needs to get better at….”.

What does game planning around not looking at your second, third, or blitz beater look like? I am not trying to be snarky. But I am not sure what you’re talking about, that’s a very bland statement. How does one game plan around a QB who struggles to find an outlet when the pass rush closes in? At some point you have to get better at it. Every QB in the league can sit back and throw darts vs air. Every. Single. One. I think it’s chicken and the egg. Allen has been better a better athlete than most guys he’s faced on defense. His strength, mobility, and arm talent have masked some play identification issues. His ability to make absolutely spectacular plays has likely reinforced some not great traits. He can figure it out no different than he figured out his mechanics. But he has to do it.

I’ve actually been banging this drum for a few years. Josh is really good. Maybe the best overall physiologically gifted guy to play the position. His physiology bails him out of a lot of situations and decisions he puts himself in. He can complete almost any pass on the field. But it doesn’t mean he should try to. Just because he can, doesn’t mean he should. When Josh misses he tends to miss behind. His fast ball and legs have allowed him to get away with being late to throw for a number of years. He has made adjustments in other areas of his game. I keep pointing it out because I think it can be fixed. But the bill is starting to come do. I would like to add on here. Josh has a tendency to throw to his check downs as a last resort as they’re flat footed. He needs to do better at getting his check downs the ball a little sooner, before the defense can react.

Check our spotrac. His cap hit is still $6M. That’s still rookie numbers. It’s 2 more seasons before he breaks $20M. And 3 before he breaks $30M. I am actually not as high on Hurts as everybody else. I actually think Allen is a better passer but JH has 3 more years to evolve on the cheap with high priced skill players. Beane could have done better the last few years given Allen’s cap number and he didn’t. That’s 100% on him. But now we’re in a space where Allen is going to be costing $40M+ from here on out. We will have to draft well and get rookies going much much quicker. It’s unfortunate, but Allen will have to make do without big WR money outside Diggs. KC has a slight advantage that their best guy makes low TE money. For reference Diggs will cost $12M more than Kelce next year. That is a good chunk of change to be spread elsewhere on the team.

Nate is trying to be too smart here. What I get out of it is that if the offense is on schedule on first down, Cook is basically a cheat code. This is one of those things where a team says “we’ll keep calling it until you stop us”. We have certainly smashed our RB into a brick wall over and over again in past games. I reserve the right to criticize that too. Ha!

I always look forward to these. Thank you!

I’m not sure he’s regressed at reading defenses as much as he’s being asked to focus on areas of his game that amplify that weakness. I keep reading that taking away Josh’s ability to run is taking away his best ability, hampering his game, etc. The other side of that coin is that he isn’t able to read and react with his arm super efficiently. This is the same thing we heard about Lamar and Cam. It sort of is what it is. He will have to evolve. A new OC can help work around that for sure. But if we keep working around it and he doesn’t evolve the bill will come due. I am out of pocket; trying to pull it up. But it’s a bear. I am going to try and paraphrase as best possible. It was along the lines of “Of course I watch film. But I try not to get too wrapped up in it because teams tend to play us a lot differently than what we see on film. I prefer to trust my eyes, read, react. I like to play fast and loose.” I think it might have been @Beck Water who has the quote. But we disagree on interpretation.

Not to be pedantic, but at least for me I when I talk about Allen I don’t think he stinks, and I don’t think he’s lazy. I do think he could be better in a few areas that would help him and the team level up. Fitz sucked at some things like accuracy. But Allen can be better. Not sure if that makes sense.

Also agreed. This week feels as bad as the boards ever been with repeat threads.

The defensive game plan sucked this week.

@Simon I think it’s reasonable to have individual threads for all-22 breakdown each week. But at the end of each week those threads get merged into a mega All-22 thread. I think notable breakdowns of film provide more value than a hot take from Cowherd or Steven A.

There are some plays I don’t like. We often have a million receivers in the same spot. I also tend to think when you have large scale execution issues there’s a coaching error. The weird part for me is that this is the same HC, they weren’t as wide spread last year, and Dorsey has been on the staff for 4-5 years.

I actually think Dorsey has called 4 very good games this year. Jets, Raiders, Miami, and the Patriots. There have been some execution errors in some of those. Some of that is certainly on KD. Some of that is also on the OL, WR, and QB

At the risk of piling on, Kurt Warner’s film reviews for Allen have mostly been “just because he can doesn’t mean he should”. And I think Warner is a fan of Allen’s game.

These aren’t new issues either. They’ve been pointed out for a few seasons. We just can’t brute force our way through it all the time. I tend to talk a lot more about Beane and the players around the QB in the offseason or camp. I have been critical of some of the roster moves with this regime. But we aren’t going to get a new OC for another few months. Gabe Davis is not going to suddenly develop super explosive, all world, short area quickness. There isn’t a starting RT out there for the taking. What we can do is have our QB throw to the open receiver. That helps bail out a lot of other problems we’re having. I have confidence Allen can evolve. The other stuff will be dealt with in a few months.

Kirk Cousins gives Minnesota a massive edge over the Mac Jones lead Patriots.

We have a 250 lbs + QB, who’s made a name for himself by running headfirst and full speed into defenders. Who is now managing his third injury to his throwing arm in 3 years. The staff, who can also be upgraded, is also in a lose-lose situation. They run him into the ground like Cam and we’re all clamoring they ruined him. They try and protect him from ruining himself and they’ve neutered him. I am of the opinion that when you have your guy as the leader of a multi billion dollar organization you have to protect that asset. Doing anything else is wildly irresponsible to both the man and the franchise. At some point being unable to hone in on being a better passer/decision falls on the player. There’s certainly some grey area here but in real life you can’t go give a guy $250M and then to YOLO. A new coordinator and or coach might help Allen. But Allen also has to help Allen.

Athleticism and running need to be in addition to not in replacement of an NFL QB’s ability to diagnose and dissect with their arm. You can get by in the NCAA with it, and the NFL has moved in that direction over the last 10 years, but it’s not there yet.

This is fair. But I also don’t think Dorsey is bad enough that he’s “ruining Josh” or the offense. There’s a couple play concepts I don’t like. He’s had some moments where play calls are a bit head scratching. But he drew up and called some good games against the Jets, Raiders, Dolphins, and Pats. We’ve been hampered by execution errors. Some of that is definitely on him. But there’s some individual responsibility as well. We can also upgrade. I think the Bills are a little too far along to manage Dorsey’s growing pains. I think he’ll be a good coordinator down the line.

I think he can get better at some of itZ. Josh is a good QB. Sometimes it’s not so much that he doesn’t see it. He’s just trying to do too much. He just makes all these risky decisions, and when he gets into a bad groove where they aren’t working out so he presses harder. Sometimes it he doesn’t even see a guy, but there’s also a lot of “hold my beer, watch this” moments as well. Where he just says fork it. He should be able to make those moments go away.

I don’t think Josh has ever had elite vision. I have been watching his A-22 for years saying even when he’s competing wow passes there are much more efficient decisions on the field. I think he has always been late to throw. When he misses, he misses behind pretty often. His fast ball bails him out of a lot of issues. He has made a career out of pulling the trigger on things because he can, not because he should. Inevitably it will lead to some bad tendencies and a bit of over confidence in things he shouldn’t. Unlike every other position group, the QB hs to constantly evolve to stay ahead of defenses. Josh is working through some things that he’s tried to brute force his way through for a while. He’s going to have to figure out how to operate within his self no matter who the OC is. It is worth noting that Josh is working through his 3rd injury to his throwing arm in 3 years. The day where Josh needs to be more efficient and less of a hoss is probably coming sooner than we’d hope for.

If we thought the 17 year drought for the Bills was bad, just wait to see what Pegula can do with the Bills. The Sabres own the longest playoff drought in NHL history at 12 years. A league where over half of the league used to make the playoffs every year. The next longest drought is nearly half of that, 7 years. They’ve been the worst owners in NHL history. Their run with the Sabres is among the worst in all of sports. Asking Terry to clean house entirely could kickstart a 25 to 30 year drought for the Bills. That’s a little bit of hyperbole, but not the exaggeration I wish it was. So here is the plan. Get rid of the bad ones. Then get the good ones. Draft good players and improve the weaknesses. And voila!