hondo in seattle

Yeah, Bill, we disagree because I do believe Beane has the final say but neither one of us is in a position to prove our case. At least, I'm not. It would be cool, though, if we could embed ourselves into OBD a week before the draft, sit in all the meetings, and hang out in the war room when the picks are made. Maybe when I win the lottery, I'll buy a big enough stake in the Bills that Terry allows us both inside the building.

I wonder why you see those signatures when I don't see them at all. I think Beane's telling the truth when he says he takes input from McD and his coaches, as well as his own scouts, and then makes the picks based on the totality of that information. Which sounds very sensible. The final decision - and accountability - lies with Beane.

Sadly, you're right. Last season we were +24 in turnover differential. But of the various stats that contribute to winning seasons, various football observers have concluded that TO margin is perhaps the most variable from year to year. To give an example, one analyst wrote: "We all know intuitively that winning the turnover margin has a significant impact on winning, but this puts it into context. A team’s turnover margin correlates with same-season winning at close to a 70% rate. However, while it is predictive of same-season winning, it is highly unpredictable year-to-year, with a correlation of just about 11% year-to-year, meaning from a statistical standpoint, a team’s turnover margin almost might as well be random year-to-year." In short, we can't count on getting wins by winning the TO battle again this year. footballfanspot.com/2021/08/12/which-stats-are-most-predictable-and-predictive/ harvardsportsanalysis.org/2014/10/how-random-are-turnovers/

Unless Josh gets hurt, I don't think we'll be worse than last season. Depending on the performance of the FAs and draft picks, and there are question marks around all of them, we might be better. I'm hoping Brady continues to improve as an OC, particularly in scheming a downfield passing attack. In other words, I have no special intuition or expectation for this season, but - as always - I hope for the miracle.

Beane's argument isn't that simple. He's also mentioned that we scored 30 points in 8 consecutive games and were the highest scoring team in the NFL last season if you include the playoffs. The offense was productive even without an elite receiver so maybe that wasn't our biggest need. And he's pointed out, reasonably enough, that you can have All Pros everywhere. The cap doesn't allow that. I believe that if you have a unicorn QB, you ought to prioritize two things: the OL and your stable of WRs. I don't think Beane's done that. It seems we either have a good OL, or a good group of WRs, but never both at the same time. Still, there are rational arguments you can make for his approach.

I still remember when Larry was the old, grizzled, trusted vet and Mark Gaughan was the youngster out to prove himself. The years fly by.

Then again, about 8.8% of 3rd round draft picks become All Pros (according to a historical review once done by Forbes). As a fan, I always hope. www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2015/05/22/tracking-nfl-draft-efficiency-how-contingent-is-success-to-draft-position/

I know I'm a little late to the party on Moore but he isn't your normal JAG. He's got top 10% speed (3 cone drill, 20-yard shuttle, 40-yard dash) in a bottom 10% frame (height, weight, wingspan). He's probably not the kind of guy you want out there every play and it's unlikely that's what we got him for. If used correctly, he does seem like he could be a nice complementary piece. I'd rather have a big-bodied fast guy who can run the entire route tree but a FA like that would be out of our price range. Beggars can't be choosers.

Depth isn't a problem. We have four good second-teamers: Rapp, Hamlin, Forrest, Bishop.

Weirdly, I'm very happy with this signing and yet at the same time I don't expect much from him. I think he'll be the #5 receiver and will see only see limited action in specific packages - unless of course there's an injury. I think we now have a respectable, though certainly not elite, WR room.

I share this long-term frustration, even acknowledging that Diggs as a counterargument. It seems to me that when a team lands a QB with generational talent, two things ought to become priorities: (A) You get him a bunch of big uglies on the OL as a capable bodyguard. (B) You get him someone to throw to. I don't feel like Beane's ignored A or B entirely. But it feels like when Josh has had pass catchers to throw the ball to, he didn't have bodyguards providing him the time to throw. And when he finally got a line that gave him time to throw, he had no one to throw to. It just doesn't seem the best way to make use of Josh's talent.

Doesn't go down easy.

1-32 are WR1 33-64 are WR2 65-96 are WR3 His rating seems about right for the role he's play for us.

My SWAG... Starter 2nd Team Safety Rapp Hamlin Bishop Forrest CB Benford Dane Jackson Hairston Tre Nickel Taron Hancock But there's lots of uncertainty with Tre maybe or maybe not making a good recovering, 2nd year guys maybe stepping up in their sophomore years, and 3 rookies who are always question marks.

While Josh has a tremendously strong arm, his deep accuracy is merely average. It's no reason not to throw deep. Facing Cover 2 and Cover 3 a lot is. So is having receivers who don't get separation deep. In either case, it's a problem. The most impotent offenses put defenses on their heels with they can effectively attack every part of the field.

Although I gave it a B, I do have concerns. Ignoring special teams, there are four areas in a football contest. Run offense, pass offense, run defense, pass defense. As I see it right now, only one of those (pass defense) got better. I dread seeing King Henry again and still wish for a speedy separator at wideout.

I gave it a "B." I have little freaking idea if any of these kids will turn out to be valuable starters. But Beane usually scores around a "B" so I'm guessing this draft class turns out to be a "B" as well.

I'm not good with our draft. I think the NFL should have a rule that any team that's been around 50 years or more and still doesn't have a Super Bowl victory will be given 2 picks each round.

I'll grant you this: The draft is a game of probabilities. There are no certainties. A scout once said that no college players play at the NFL level. What you have to do as a scout is guess who'll step up and who won't. It may be an educated guess but it's still a guess. And Beane guesses right somewhat more often than other GMs. I think his track record shows that, so I'm perpetually hopeful. But I don't count anyone in the draft as a given.

Beane attacked the first two days of the draft with a commitment to make our pass D better. He got a CB who's better in coverage than run support. A 1 tech who's built more like a 3 tech and better at penetration than holding up against big run blockers. And a DE who's better at rushing the QB than setting the edge. Despite how King Henry gashed us, it doesn't seem like improving the run D was a priority. And despite the facts that our #1 RB is holding out and our wideouts don't separate well, neither was the offense. I'd love to see us get a speedy wideout but at this point, I'm mostly expecting BPA.

I'm a fan so I will have opinions sometimes. If Beane had drafted Shedeur, for example, I would have yelled angrily at my TV screen: WTF! Still, as a Purdue alum, I once said Drew Brees would become a good pro QB. I got that right. Then again, I had previously said the same thing about Scott Campbell. We all suffer from bad guesses. The same GM who gave us Josh Allen also gave us Kaiir Elam. It's like asking the weatherman for a forecast months in advance. Meteorology and NFL Scouting are crappy predictive sciences. So, most of the time, I don't dabble. In my mind, any of Beane's picks could be an All Pro in a few years. Or dishwashers at the local greasy spoon. I'll find out when I find out.

I was hoping for a speedy receiver in the first three picks. Now, I'm just not sure. Guys picked this late usually don't see the field very much, so I don't care who we get. Then again, Shakir was a fifth rounder. So, yeah, I still want a speedy wideout.

I've been wrong so many times about drafts that I've given up having an opinion. I don't trust Beane - or any GM - to get all their picks right. I don't trust so-called draft experts to get all their evaluations right. I don't trust my own evaluation of college tape. I do trust time: Time will tell. I'll have an opinion on this draft in 2 or 3 years.

So you'll trust the opinion of casual Gamecock fans over the opinion of a professional NFL GM and his scouts? Interesting choice. Personally, I don't actually trust anyone - not even myself. I've read the scouting reports, looked at the highlights, and still haven't formed an opinion. I'll wait to see him play in the NFL.

Why reference Kiper's board? Kiper's board was put together by Kiper. Beane's board was put together by Beane and his entire staff of professionals. Do you think Kiper's board is better? I think Kiper is a smart guy but remember when he swore that he'd quit his draft work if Jimmy Clausen didn't become a successful NFL quarterback? His board means nothing to me.