hondo in seattle

I agree with this for the most part. Also, I think we had too many needs to fill them all. I'm happy we addressed CB, OL and WR so far. And I'm really happy we addressed DE in free agency. All in all, it seems like a really good off-season when we also consider Wanny's promotion.

Ask me during the season if I'm happy. Better yet, ask me three years from now. It's good to see us getting need players. And I trust Buddy that they'll contribute. But the draft is a crap shoot and even good RGMs miss on picks. But I'm not complaining about any of Buddy's choices.

I guess because some of the draftniks rated TJ lower than the 3rd, we screwed up by taking him so soon. Because draftniks working on their own know more than the collective wisdom of the Bills scouting department. It's interesting that players don't get drafted according to Mel Kiper's board. Not this year. Not any year. Hmmm... maybe because Kipe's board doesn't match the boards used by the teams? Because the teams study players in greater depth with greater resources than Kiper does? Fans across the country get upset when their team drafts a player that Kiper or McShay or whoever doesn't like or rated lower. Funny who we decide to trust.

Wagon Circler, I agree. We should fire Nix and all our national and regional scouts and hire you. You clearly know more about scouting than these folks who have dedicated their lives to it. 1. Gailey says, "I think he has just tapped his potential at left tackle. In our evaluation we think he can go a long way at left tackle." Our national scout Darrell Scout (who coached for 28 years before becoming a scout), says "We just think as you looked at him, he got better every week. I thought he was an excellent player (tackle) at the end of the season..." Nix says, "No he’s not a guard. He started 50 games, the last 16 was left tackle. We put it out there, we tried to spread the rumor that he was a guard and hope somebody wouldn’t take him." But I'm sure you've watched more game tape than Gailey or Moody or Nix and have a more informed opinion. 2. Nix says, “We like his speed and he can catch the football and return. They’ll have to cover deep.” SI says, "Graham comes with a large amount of upside and should only get better with NFL coaching." But you are right! We wasted an extraordinarily valuable 7th round pick (227th overall) to trade up for him. What was Buddy thinking? How often do you get the 227th pick? We should not squander such a valuable resource just to get a guy who can stretch the field and help Stevie get open. It's obvious by your detailed, cogent, accurate observations that you spent far more hours watching game tape and interviewing coaches and scouts than Buddy did. It's really too bad you aren't the GM. 3. Again, you are perfectly correct. Why draft a CB when Florence and McGee are in their 30s and fading, and McKelvin has played poorly and is a FA next year anyway? Why worry about the future? And why draft a CB when our Pass Defense was ranked 25th in yards per play and 26th in opponent passing efficiency? Our Pass Offense was in the upper half of the league in yards despite Fitz's broken ribs and beat-up offensive line and receiving corps so clearly QB is a bigger priority. Forget the "I trust in Buddy" mantra. I trust in Wagon Circler!

Sounds more like Lee Evans to me than Roscoe. About the same 40 time as Evans. Catches well. Doesn't like to go across the middle. Stretches the field.

Who is Stephon Gilmore? STEPHON STILES GILMORE OVERVIEW Since the turn of the century, the Gamecocks have produced a long line of standout defensive backs who went on to stardom in the National Football League, including Pro Bowlers Johnathan Joseph and Dunta Robinson. All South Carolina secondary standouts might have to combine their best assets to produce on Stephon Stiles Gilmore, a player who might be the best product produced by Steve Spurrier since he took over the program in 2005.

+1 Yeah, some worried that this would be the first pick because concerns that Glenn couldn't play OT in the NFL. (The argument was that a starting OG wasn't worth a #10). Some others wanted this to be our 1st Rd. pick. We should all be happy to get this guy in the 2nd round, whether or not he plays Left OT. Games are won in the trenches and this guy is a force.

And, until proven otherwise, I'll trust Nix over the draft gurus, not to mention the fans on TBD who fashion themselves draft gurus. Metzelaars ~ Good job digging up that old McShay draft evaluation. McShay, like many of the other draftniks, is really smart. He knows names and numbers. But, much like his peers, he is NOT good at projecting NFL success.

+1

I'm sure you've watched more game film, interviewed more college coaches and players, and have performed more studies of what it takes to succeed in the NFL than Buddy Nix and his team of regional scouts.

Gamecock, thanks for all the insight. Hope Gilmore becomes a Pro Bowler and you a Bills fan in the process.

Flutie didn't win games. The defense in those days won games. Look at Flutie's stats. Look how many points the offense produced. We were winning defensive battles. Though, I concede, there was something about "Flutie Magic" at the end of close games. Flutie often sucked for 3 Quarters, then played like he was possessed in the 4th.

Keuchly, Barron, Floyd Buddy says he won't reach to fill a need and lots of people have Barron rated very highly but think he'll still be available at #10. Regardless of position, would you rather have a special player or a serviceable starter? Some think Barron is special - a future Pro Bowler who is good enough to add wins to the "W" column.

So mostly we resigned/extended a bunch of players who produced six wins last year? That's usually not a strategy for building future success, though I hope you are right and this time it is. I think the signings of Williams and Anderson were great. Otherwise, this is the same team, minus Bell. I'm not knocking Nix. I'm just hoping our S&C coaches do a good job this year and keep all our good players healthy and then maybe the results will be different this year. I'm also hoping that Hairston will be at least as good as Bell.

I remember we had three players starting for the Braves with names beginning with "Mc" or "Mac." McAdoo was the best of them - a great scorer as we see in the vid posted by Dallas. I also remember Randy Smith was a phenomenal all-around athlete. Wasn't he featured in a SI article once?

It's Kuechly who's a "surprise" because so many think we're taking an OT at #10 based on presumed need. The article says that we're taking this surprise guy if he's still available. In other words, it's a highly rated player. Kuechly fits that. Then again, John Wawrow says this... but as i noted today, i've been hearing more and more that the Bills are focusing their attention more on Barron and Stephon Gilmore. and barring Kalil or Blackmon dropping into their laps, one of those two guys will likely be the pick. and that all is really starting to make sense. Barron is a hard-hitting safety and a bona fide top 10 talent from everything that i've read. and Gilmore might have superior skills -- and a little less off-the-field baggage -- then Kirkpatrick. wouldn't rule out Kuechly, but i think he's on the outside of the Bills board looking in at 10.

While our post Super Bowl, pre Nix, GMs have not had a high success rate, neither have the draft gurus. And my own assessment of draft picks is worse yet. So who are you going to trust? I'm with you, I'll trust Nix until he proves me wrong.

Hi Mike. Welcome to the light of day here on TBD. And thanks for the link. Any article that spells offense as "offence" can't be too offensive. And actually, the author has some good insights and I'm at least partially convinced by his reasoning.

I'd be happy if the Bills picked a developmental QB sometime after the first round. As Buddy says, good QBs are hard to find so you just keep drafting 'em until you land one. Fitz will not be around forever and is still somewhat unproven in any case. I really, really want an OT who can start their rookie year. We only have 3 OT's on the roster and I'm not especially excited about any of them protecting Fitz's backside. Unfortunately, I doubt if we get a starting OT in this draft. I think Buddy will stick more-or-less to BPA rather than reach for an OT. I suspect we won't pick an offensive lineman until the 3rd or 4th round and that person won't be an immediate starter. (Though I hope they turn out better than Ed Wang). We're going to enter the 2012 season with an OL that's not what we want it to be. Considering games are won and lost in the trenches, this concerns me.

Thanks for the link. It's interesting to hear the comments of our scouts just because they're our scouts and not because they're adding anything new to the conversation. I'm not sure that you can say the Bills really don't like Reiff despite the comments about whether he's a guard or tackle in the NFL. The comments on Martin were generally positive.

Good job, Astrobot. You came across as well-informed.

I would be surprised with this pick but not shocked. At least Casserly rates Baron ahead of Whitner "in all phases of the game." Nix says he wants a difference-maker with #10. Not sure if Baron could be called a "difference-maker" but apparently some knowledgeable people think so. Here's the Casserly article... In speaking with teams these days about where particular players could be selected in the first round of the 2012 NFL Draft, I'm continually asked one particular question: Will Alabama safety Mark Barron be available when it is our turn to pick? The message here is crystal clear: A lot of teams are very interested in selecting Barron high in Round 1. Why is there all this interest? To put it simply, Barron is one of the best players in this draft. Most people feel that six prospects are "a cut above" the rest in this class: QB Andrew Luck, QB Robert Griffin III, OT Matt Kalil, RB Trent Richardson, CB Morris Claiborne and WR Justin Blackmon. My next-rated player is Barron. Back in my executive days with the Washington Redskins, when there was a tie between two players on our draft board, I always asked two questions: 1) Who will make the most Pro Bowls? 2) Who do you want to take to the Meadowlands to play the Giants? These two questions always helped break a tie. I've studied five games of Barron in action, and he's the player who would receive the most positive answers from those two questions. Barron is 6-foot-1, 213 pounds and runs the 40-yard dash in the 4.5's. He is very smart; Nick Saban runs a complex defense at Alabama and Barron had no problem understanding it. He should be able to be the defensive signal caller for his NFL team. He is very athletic and has the ability to play man coverage versus tight ends, which is not common in a safety. He is also exceptional when playing zone defense. Barron has excellent instincts to break on the ball and the speed to cover a lot of ground. As a physical player and fine tackler, he often played linebacker in Alabama's nickel defense. When I evaluate Barron as a safety, I do not see anything he can't do. To me, he's a very safe pick. So, how high do you take a safety? That depends on how important the position is to your defense. If it is important, then Barron qualifies as a top-10 pick in this year's draft. Here is how I rate Barron against some highly regarded safeties taken in the top 15 of recent drafts when they were coming out of college ... Rated higher than Barron: • Eric Berry, 2010 draft, fifth pick (Kansas City): Better cover skills, could cover some receivers. Rated lower than Barron: • Earl Thomas, 2010 draft, 14th pick (Seattle): Not as good a tackler. • LaRon Landry, 2007 draft, sixth pick (Washington): Not as stout in man-to-man coverage. • Michael Huff, 2006 draft, seventh pick (Oakland): Not as physical. • Donte Whitner, 2006 draft, eighth pick (Buffalo): Barron rates better in all phases of the game. • Sean Taylor 2004 draft, fifth pick (Washington): Not as smooth in the hips, could not cover as well. In scouting for the draft, you compare prospects to previous players taken in a round to decide what value to put on them. This is how I arrive at my thinking: Mark Barron is worth a top-10 pick.

Two years ago, I correctly guessed Nix would draft Spiller. I don't watch college football much. I can't evaluate college players. And I ignore draftniks. But listening to Nix talk pre-draft made me believe that was the direction he was going. Last year, most people correctly guessed Dareus. Nix made it plain which players he liked. The only challenge for us fans guessing the pick right was figuring out the pick ahead of us. Nix says what he thinks. He doesn't seem to have any kind of deception plan to befuddle other clubs. He doesn't give us too much information but he does tend to give a lot. This year, though, I'm having more trouble understanding him. And maybe because I want a Tackle so badly, I'm not really listening when he's suggesting a different direction. This last interview made me wonder if he'll go CB??? Or WR??? He says he wants a playmaker or difference-maker and then went out of his way to explain that a Tackle could fit the bill. But it didn't seem he was talking about Tackles when he was saying the Bills should get a play-maker with #10. One thing I thought was interesting was that Nix said they've done lots of studies on Tackles. We have some folks on the board who read lots of draft magazines and then seem to think they know more than the FO. Nix and his team are incredible experts on the draft. They've done all sorts of studies on all the positions. They know the key indicators of success and have fully vetted the top maybe 250, 350 players in the country. Who ever #10 turns out to be, I won't pretend that I can intelligently second-guess Nix. (Though I might do it anyway just for fun).

It may indeed be a bad year to need an OLT. And I think that means - whether Nix, Gailey and we like it or not - that Hairston will be our starter on opening day. No NFL roster is perfect. Hopefully we don't have so many imperfections that they prevent us from finally reaching the playoffs. Interestingly, there was a lot of panic going into last year with Bell as our LT. In fact, there was a lot of panic about the OL in general. Yet both our backs averaged over 5 ypc and our QB was not sacked much. Gailey and the offensive coaching staff did a great job at the beginning of last season covering up our weaknesses. Let's hope they can do it again - but for a full season this time.

You guys crack me up.