hondo in seattle

Ya know, I might be one of the guys growing a beard if Fitz leads us to the Super Bowl. I do appreciate that he has removed the Ivy League sweater-vest and behaves like just one of the guys. I love the loyalty he shows to his teammates. And his corny sense of humor. And how he screams like a prepubescent girl when he gets excited. Well, maybe not that last one so much. But I love that he has fun on the field. As for SB probabilities, I feel the Bills have better odds this year (and in the near future) than at any other time since Kelly et al. retired. I like the way this team is coming together and do believe Fitz can win a SB with the right surrounding cast.

Nice article, JW. Early last season, I was excited about the Bills offense. This preseason, I'm excited about the defense. It's hard not to expect a huge jump up the rankings.

I'll not comment on the probability of the event and give the question the serious answer I think the OP was looking for... No, Fitz wouldn't move ahead of Kelly as a Buffalo icon even if the Bills won the SB this year. Kelly transformed a 2-14 team and league laughingstock into a Super Bowl contender. We won many games over that evolution on the strength of Kelly's arm. And many more on the strength of his leadership and sheer will. Kelly seemed to epitomize the Buffalo spirit. He was a kid that some universities didn't want - at least not as their QB. But he was blue-collar, gutsy, tough, hard-working and confident. In other words, he was just like us - or how we imagine ourselves to be. Kelly came to town when the team was abysmal and nothing seemed to be right in Buffalo and he gave us several years of glory - with some heart-rending disappointments along the way. Fitz is an Ivy League boy who would be working on Wall Street if not in the NFL. He just doesn't connect as well with our rust belt sensibilities. And if we did win the Super Bowl, the credit would be spread evenly around to Nix, Chan, and all the players. Less of our success would be attributed - rightly or wrongly - to the QB. And - if we won the SB - the transformation would not be quite the same rags to riches story. We weren't horrible when Fitz came here. Just profoundly and persistently mediocre. While his position wouldn't yet be as elevated as Kelly's in the pantheon of Buffalo sports, I think we could see a lot of Buffalonians growing out Fitzian beards if we won the SB.

I live 2600 miles away and appreciate all the information from the hometown fans. Without you guys, I wouldn't know what's going on. Thanks!

I don't think it's vindication to find an obscure sportswriter who agrees with your opinion. But it is a nice article and I agree with much of it. Vindication is when Kelsay has a good year this year.

Dean Cain - who was a Bill for a very short period of time - is on TV in a new show titled "Stars Earn Stripes" about celebrities going through military challenges. http://www.nbc.com/stars-earn-stripes/about/ Cain was an excellent athlete in high school and received numerous athletic scholarship offers. But he chose to go to Princeton instead. After graduating with a B.A. in History, Cain had a tryout with the Bills but ruined his knee in training camp - ended his dreams of playing in the NFL. So we went to Hollywood where he's worked as a screenwriter,producer and actor - and fathered a child with a Playboy Playmate. Even though he's only nominally a Bill, I like to see ex-Bills do well.

Good call! Not to mention that the Bills had a better offseason than all these teams minus perhaps the Broncos.

I worry about the O Line. We have a new LT (probably a rookie) and our O Line was not dominant last year. Yep, we didn't give up a lot of sacks. Yep, our two featured backs both averaged over 5 yards per carry. But much of that was do to Chan's scheme and play calling. When we needed to run we couldn't - we had no push. We were last in the league in 3rd and short situations. It will be interesting to see if Fitz is really better this year with healthier ribs and Coach Lee to help with his inconsistent mechanics. And it will be interesting to see if this D Line gels and can both stop the run and pressure QBs. But the other thing I'll watch carefully is the offensive line.

Gaughn in the Buffalo News says this: "McGee is the prospective starter at cornerback opposite rookie Stephon Gilmore. In passing situations, McGee moves inside to cover a slot receiver, and Aaron Williams enters as an outside corner. With McGee out of team drills, Williams is starting outside and Leodis McKelvin covers the slot in the nickel defense."

A quote from that article says it all... "Mary Paoletti of Comcast SportsNet New England reported that Addai was struggling during his conditioning test Wednesday ... and just "quit.""

I was guessing the same thing when I read the quote.

I liked Henry when we had him. He was a warrior who played hard despite injuries. Too bad he was also a drug user, drug distributor and serial father. It's hard to imagine any team having an interest in him now... Travis Henry wants to make a comeback Posted by Josh Alper on July 23, 2012, 10:16 AM EDT Here’s something we didn’t think we’d be writing about on Monday morning. According to Adam Caplan of Sirius XM Radio and TheSidelineView.com, former NFL running back Travis Henry is trying to make a comeback for the 2012 season. Henry was last seen when he received a three-year federal prison sentence for his role in a drug trafficking organization in 2009, a sentence that has now come to an end and one that apparently left Henry feeling like he could make a return to professional football. It’s fair to wonder if Henry wasn’t using some of his own supply when he came up with that plan. Henry turns 34 in October and has plenty of baggage that isn’t related to that prison term. Henry was suspended for a year by the league in 2008 because of positive marijuana tests and he fathered at least 11 children with 10 different women, leading to a lot of issues with child support payments during his playing career. Those needs haven’t gone away, which likely leaves Henry in need of money but, again, it is hard to see a team opting for Henry when younger backs who haven’t spent the last few years in prison are available. Henry ran for 6,086 yards and 38 touchdowns during his seven years with the Bills, Titans and Broncos. http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/07/23/travis-henry-wants-to-make-a-comeback/related/

+1

Rob Johnson at his peak was therefore a franchise QB. He averaged 7.6 ypa in 1999 and 7.3 ypa in 2000. For two years, he met your criteria. It's hard to quantify "franchise QB" but if I were to attempt it, I'd probably look at total yards (or yards per game). Guys like Brees and Brady move their teams up and down the field with the arms, not by handing off. I think the argument that a QB is often labeled a "franchise QB" after a SB win (however much the QB contributed) is a fair one. Incidentally, Bledsoe led the Pats to the SB in 1996 (which they lost), averaging only 6.6 ypa that season (same as his entire career in NE). But he passed for over 4,000 yards that year and went to the Pro Bowl.

Thanks! Even a broken clock is right twice a day. Maybe this is one of my two times.

Winning requires the offense to score more than the defense gives up. During the first half of the season, the Bills proved they can score a lot of points with Fitz as the QB as long as the key players remain healthy. The offseason gave us the defensive talent to keep opposing point totals down. Fitz and the Bills are going to win more than they lose this year. Fitz is no Kelly, but the Bills offense will be potent nonetheless. I'd rather have a Kelly but I can live with Fitz. The Bills will be fun to watch this year and having Fitz as the QB doesn't dampen my enthusiasm.

Brad's strengths and weaknesses aside, I think we need to remember that the #3 QB is no longer a lesser version of the #2 QB. The #3 is a special roster spot - someone who gets to go out on the field even though they are not counted against your active total. So you want someone versatile in the #3 QB spot who can contribute in ways other than QB. My opinion is that Smith filled that role nicely, He ran the wildcat, returned some kicks and played WR for us in 2011. Most guys around the league who filled the #3 QB roster spot on Sunday contributed far less. In fact, most did nothing at all. I doubt if Smith will ever be the #2. If one of the top two quarterbacks gets seriously hurt, the Bills will find a street FA to be the new #2 and Smith will keep his spot as the #3. I believe from things Chan and Buddy have said, they're really looking at the #3 as a special position.

According to a new rule last year, the 3rd string QB will be "active" but not count against the team's active limit of 45 players. 3rd string QBs usually don't see the field. If they do, you're usually doomed anyway. So why have an active 3rd string QB who is just a QB (like Thigpen) when you can have a 3rd string QB who can actually do other things? Without using up an active roster roster spot, we saw Brad Smith run the wildcat and play WR for us last year. He can also return kicks and, in a desperate need, run the offense as a conventional QB. We're getting a lot of use out of a position (active 3rd string QB) that doesn't normally contribute anything at all. While most teams play with 45 active players on Sunday (plus the 3rd string QB who will not play a single down), the Bills have 46 players (counting Smith) who will actually get on the field. By putting a multi-talented player like Brad Smith in the #3 position, the Bills effectively have an extra active player every week. That's why his job is safe.

Yikes! It's waaaay too early for me to think about the 2013 draft! Even as an offseason topic, I can't wrap my head around it.

Joique Bell was the only guy I was disappointed to see go, only because he had been so productive in college (2,000 yards his senior year as I recall). And even Bell has done nothing since the Bills cut him. It will be very interesting to see who goes in the last couple cuts.

Fitz was hurt. Exactly how seriously is hard to know. I can only speculate that however serious the injury, Chan thought a hurt Fitz was better than a healthy Thigpen. That doesn't speak highly of our backup. Here was how PFT covered the story when it first broke... http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/03/05/fitzpatrick-johnson-elaborate-on-quarterbacks-rib-injury/ Last month, Bills receiver David Nelson said that quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick cracked ribs against the Redskins. Coincidentally, the team’s — and Fitzpatrick’s — slide started thereafter. At 5-2 after shutting out the Redskins, the Bills lost seven straight. The quarterback’s passer rating plunged from 116.4 against the Redskins to 51.9, 46.6, and 45.8 in the next three games. But Fitzpatrick showed up only once all season on the injury report. He was listed as probable with a chest injury for the Week Nine game against the Jets, the first game after the game against the Redskins. It sounds like it was more than a little worse than that. “I mean, it’s something I don’t really want to get into much,” Fitzpatrick told the Toronto Sun. “The only thing I’ll say is guys in the NFL play hurt. Every game guys are hurt, especially at the end of the year. And that’s just part of the game, it’s part of the business, and something you have to do.” Receiver Stevie Johnson was slightly more talkative on the topic. “I know personally, in the huddle, the worst it got — to my knowledge — is he barely could say a full play under one breath,” Johnson told the Sun. “It started right at the halfway mark [of the season]. I mean, everybody in the league is injured or is hurt in some way. When it’s your quarterback who’s got to throw, and it’s ribs — I mean, it’s tough. That’s the last thing I heard was it was ribs, or what-not.” “Ribs” never showed up on the injury report. And if the “ribs” were cracked, it surely wasn’t a one-week situation. That said, the fact that teams like the Saints (or perhaps a decade ago the Bills) were using cash as the carrot to knock guys out of games, I’ve now got a different attitude about hiding injuries. Yes, it gives rise to inside information that could be exploited by guys with two ears and one eyebrow. But if players are going to be corrupted from within the locker room, it’s no longer quite as important to worry about potential outside influences.

I don't care if Fitz can be an "upper echelon" QB. I only care that the offense (+ST) scores more the defense (+ST) gives up. The Bills were averaging 28 points per game last season before everything went to crap. So the theory is already proven: When they are healthy, Fitz and the boys can score a lot of points. If the Bills can just average 24 ppg this year, we'll win a lot of games because I expect this defense to hold opponents to an average of less than 20.

The O Line makes me nervous because we didn't get a lot of sacks thanks to Chan's short-pass offense and Fitz's quick release. When we needed to run the ball, we couldn't. We were last in the league in 3nd-and-2 and 3rd-and-3 conversions. 28th, I think, in 3rd-and-1. Great offensive lines push the defensive lines back. We didn't do that. We created holes for FredEx with finesse and good play calling. BUT... I'm really hopeful that Cordy Glenn provides us with an upgrade. You are probably right about FredEx. But sometimes injuries are more serious than we fans know and last longer than we expect. I'm not trying to be a Negative Nancy because I do expect the Bills to battle for a playoff spot this year. But I also understand the folks who have some doubts and take the approach that they'll believe it when they see it.

Why are you confusing the issue with facts???? It's a team game. The Bills averaged 28 points a game for the first 7 contests of the season. Then the wheels came off the wagon due to all sorts of reasons beyond Fitz's 'noodle arm.' 28 ppg compares favorably to the Kelly led K-Gun Super Bowl Bills. I am NOT saying Fitz is as good as Kelly. I am saying that this offense can be productive enough to win with Fitz at the helm.

I am 52 and wondering if I will EVER see the Bills win a Super Bowl. The chances of the Bills winning a SB are 1 in 32. If I live 32 more years, probability says I will witness exactly one Bills SB victory. Then again, the Bills have defied probabilities before. The Bills probability of winning one of those four Super Bowls in the 90s was in 15 out of 16. The chances of losing all four was just 1 in 16 but they did it. I'm getting nervous as mortality rears its ugly head.