hondo in seattle

When you enter the playoffs with playoff-average talent/health, you can expect an average playoff W-L record. The thing with a 1st round bye (three years in a row now) is that you jump into the playoffs when only the very good teams are left. Games between two very good teams is a coin toss. In 17 years before McD, we had zero playoff appearances. Since McD, we've had 9. I don't see his playoff record as a mark against him. It's a mark for him. For the past 3 or 4 years, we've entered each season with maybe a 10% or so probability of winning it all. That's a huge improvement over the 0% chance we had pre-McD. With enough time, he'll bring home a Lombardi. There's no guarantee, as you say. But there's no guarantee that Reid or Belichick will win another Super Bowl either. It's a game of probabilities and you do the best you can to tilt the odds in your favor. McD is doing that. Andy Reid didn't win the SB till his 21st season as a head coach. Now he's won 2 of the last 4. There's often a learning curve with these guys. And some luck. Plus, it sometimes takes time for HCs to build the staff they want. McD's first year, he hired whatever assistants he could find who weren't already under contract somewhere else. The longer McDs in the league as a stable, winning HC, the more good assistants and coordinators will want to work for him. I like the Pittsburgh model: only 3 head coaches in the past 54 years. That stability has brought them 6 Super Bowl wins. Coaches, trainers, and all the other staff of a franchise prefer to work in a stable environment. Stable teams attract better talent. Or we could follow the Bills model: fire your head coach whenever you feel disappointed. During that span when Pittsburgh had 3 HCs, we had 18. That instability brought us zero championships.

C'mon. Even the ''68 Bills, who went through 5 quarterbacks, won one game.

A few of my mafia brothers and sisters mention the tougher schedule. I don't really care about that. As long as the Bills stay reasonably healthy, they'll be AFCE champs once again. And, if healthy, they have a chance to make a run in the playoffs. Though with 31 other teams - maybe a dozen of which are legitimately good - it's foolish to predict, or demand, a SB appearance. But I probably feel better about the Bills this offseason than I have since the early 90s.

Florio is fine for what he is: lawyer-turned-NFL-commentator. If he's reporting something new, which is rare, I'll pay attention. But if he's analyzing the Bills, I really don't care what he has to say. He's not a good football analyst. Nearly all of us at TBD know more about Beane, McD, and the Bills in general than he does.

From SI's Packers coverage: How did a player with such a meager history in the small-time world of Division III football get a shot in the NFL? A 4.49-second time in the 40 at 6-foot-4 and 248 pounds and a broad jump that rivaled any tight end to ever participate in the Scouting Combine. www.si.com/nfl/packers/transactions/packers-give-chance-to-former-d-iii-player-with-meager-history

For some reason, this thread makes me think of the old saying: "Arrogance is God's gift to little men."

I hope you are right. I really do. But why did McD say they all needed some space? You don't need "space" unless there's some friction. It was great to see Diggs on the field with his teammates yesterday, but I still worry there might be some residual bad feelings. Hopefully, Diggs puts those aside and performs.

You just did. But the point is valid. I know high-IQ folks who don't openly talk about their scores. Their attitude is often something like: the only thing a high IQ proves is that you're good at taking IQ tests. Something similar goes on with soldiers. Prince Harry brags in his book that he killed something like 25 enemy soldiers. As a combat veteran myself, I can tell you that many/most soldiers who notched kills don't brag about it.

Despite the SB buzz, I wasn't super confident going into 2022. New OC, new starting WR2, new starting slot receiver, crap OL... I'm probably a bit more confident now than I was last year at the same time. With meager resources, I think Beane's done a really nice job improving the roster.

Cowherd has a show because he's a good talker, not because he has good judgment. I don't value his opinions. Most of us on TBD know more about the Bills than he does.

I think you're right. I heard a MD explain that a UCL issue may indeed interfere with short passes more than long. Beane said that Crowder's injury hurt a lot because he was supposed to be the undeneath guy.

You're right. But the context matters. It's not that a guy is missing. It's that one of our star players might be mad at another star player or a coach. Fear makes this wonder where this is heading.

No, I absolutely did not foresee the injuries or the death on the field. But, yeah, I did post my concerns about the OL before the season. While I didn't buy the hype during the offseason, I was starting to buy into it during the season. We looked really dominant for a while. If I recall correctly, at one point about a quarter through the season, both our O and D were ranked #1 in the league. I was jazzed. And then, one by one, things started going wrong - though we still won a lot of games. It's weird. My memory of the 2nd half of the season is a lot drearier than the W-L record or point-differential says it was. But we looked off - thanks in part to the mounting injuries. But I also believe Dorsey could have been better.

Catalana can't report it but he is dropping hints.

Josh has proven he can effectively dink-and-dunk when that's available. But I get the feeling that both Josh and Dorsey would rather air it out. I'd like to see the Bills use more underneath stuff with outlet receivers this year. And I'd like to see both Cook and Hines in that role. In fact, I'd like to see a more diversified passing attack utilizing the strengths of all the guys we have, Kincaid too.

Andy Reid. Some Bills fans want to fire McD and I'm against that. Unless we could replace him with Andy Reid. I wouldn't, like Gregg, fire McD for Belichick only because I think BB is getting close to retirement.

I didn't buy into the Super Bowl hype last offseason. One of my biggest concerns was our OL. So, at the beginning of the year, I thought Dorsey was a genius when I saw our offense moving the ball at will despite a weak OL. But there were games after the bye when I wondered what the hell Dorsey was doing. He didn't seem to be rolling with what was working. He didn't seem to be attacking the opponent's weakness. He almost seemed to be calling plays randomly. Also, we heard a couple of times late last year from opposing players that our O was predictable. Defenses seemed to have figured Dorsey out. One other thing that bugged me was his hissy fit in the box - it made me wonder if he had the emotional maturity to be a leader. I don't hate Dorsey, but I do wonder if he's the right guy to lead this offensive roster to its full potential. Hopefully, like other young OCs before him, he gets better in Year #2.

I don't get Super-Bowl-or-Bust. I've seen supposed gurus rank our roster anywhere from 3rd the 8th best this year. It's not Super Bowl quality according to most. But the club with the best roster doesn't necessarily win the SB. I'd give the Bills maybe a 10% chance. I wouldn't fire the head coach for not turning a 10% probability into a reality. If you did fire McD, who would you hire? The coaches demonstrably better than him are either employed or retired. I'll take our chances with McD over our chances with an unproven coordinator.

And, of course, everyone has a friend who has a brother who knows something and says Steph is mad at Josh because he's the center of attention, or slept with Steph's ex, or stole his clown shoes.

Sometimes fires die out. Sometimes they get bigger and become destructive... Are we worried yet?

FWIW, in another thread, @HappyDays says this: This is correct. More specifically, the blow up was Diggs saying to Josh "what's your excuse now?" (I have actually heard the audio, it was picked up by whoever was wearing the mic'd up microphone for that game) because Josh missed a throw in the game that he had also missed in practice. Their relationship has frayed. www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/247932-diggs-not-at-mandatory-minicamp-mcdermott-very-concerned/page/29/

Maybe no damning, conclusive evidence. But some suggestive stuff: The blow-up at the end of last season... some of the odd commentary from Josh... the lack of any news of them hanging out during the offseason... Diggs' absence at the start of minicamp... These guys were best friends - joined at the hip - but, since Diggs' outburst, there's been no public evidence of that friendship. Players don't need to be great friends but there does need to be some rapport. As a long-suffering Bills fan who's endured 4 SB losses, the Home Run Throwback, 13 seconds, and a host of other disappointments, I tend to assume the worst even as I continue to hope for the best.

I was worried in April. I'm more worried now that Diggs didn't report. Hopefully, it'll all be good by the time we play the Jets.

A rift with Dorsey? Or Josh? Or both?

Well, Diggs isn't at mandatory minicamp. Maybe the relationship is in decline after all?