NoSaint

Signing mario wasn’t bad... but really I think transitioning to having a real GM instead of the Marv/Brandon/littman/committee was the biggest. We are now a .500 club that functions at a basic Nfl level. We don’t stand out good or bad organizationally. money is the biggest. Scheme fit and opportunity to shine next comfort in the city and such behind there and means different things to different players. 1) money 2) future money 3) everything else. when we were a mess we weren’t giving out #1 and were jeopardizing #2... and were bad with #3 but were already far behind in the game — but we’ve generally been better about that for awhile.

And in that analogy a day 3 pick is akin to a rock or a stick. If we are giving up massive compensation and that tiny value is the dealbreaker and we can’t roll in a slightly higher pick, a next year pick, player, extra late round picks, etc.... we weren’t winning the fight to begin with

If we are unable to replace a 4th rounder in a compensation package - we don’t deserve the qb. Its like saying we cant buy a new car because we went out for lunch last week. Maybe we skip some other minor expense and don’t buy coffee today but it shouldn’t effect the MAJOR commitments

I think an early day three pick would be great here. Receivers are costly on the open market and unreliable late in the draft. To get a guy with his ability on rookie pay scale is a huge win for a team that absolutely gutted the roster of cheap talent. You are right - we shouldn’t sign anyone til May

An incredibly fair question

I would think maybe there was a reason we just don’t know about that was keeping him away unless someone made an offer he couldn’t refuse.

Its almost as if we can hire a qb coach

Riddle me this rush — why don’t we just roll with QBs that don’t intentionally sabotage each other but are highly competitive and then go ahead and hire a great qb coach? seems like a more straightforward plan than signing a qb and paying him to coach up the rookie

Makes more sense than 2-3 years of Bradford at a big deal, Tyrods dead money on top and a rookie unless you are getting something for Tyrod— the 1 year contract and lack of dead money put him ahead the other guys that aren’t much better (if at all)

It really isn’t that big of a financial hit. We are talking a range of 2-6m per year and a 4 year deal. In a projected 178m cap.... thats not substantial. The opportunity cost sucks. And no one is hitting their top three picks more often than not. Hitting all three is a banner year not the expectation

It wasn’t beanes, and no one is consistently hitting 3 of 3. Otherwise, sure. if you hit 3 of 3 a couple of times (especially with a qb) you immediately shoot to Super Bowl favorite

there’s been people in this very thread that do know factually that you’ve written off. Do you expect a bills issued formal press release?

Im guessing he is setting this goal not his team. I would assume he has been told that it would be an incredible long shot and he’s decided to try to beat the odds. Dudes probably rolled into a ton of workouts the last 10-15 years with that in his head. I don’t expect it to instantly disappear from who he is as a human. Hopefully as this goes on he makes the transition you outline - but how and when that happens isn’t the same for everyone and at least his view of the future is skewed towards optimism and hard work instead of depression and hopelessness

We often agree but on this one.... like 3 months after possibly losing his dream I am not going to stress on him using it as a motivator to get out of bed in the morning and try to crush his PT. Eventually he has to make the transition to normal person but if Nfl dreams help him get back to walking sooner (or at all) - dream away dude.

Dude just needs a goal and Nfl football is probably his most familiar goal. Odds are low he gets there but if he works like he’s trying to get back hopefully he ends up somewhere pretty good

Its not thaaaat nuts - but the 3 specific guys are awful value.

Missing on a qb hurts — but the perk is if you miss, odds are you’re getting another swing at it pretty soon. They aren’t getting huge deals and you have to find one. Take a swing.

I know you’d be down- but I’m going to keep beating the drum a bit. I think many would be surprised by it but I think there’s a real value in that area most years. There aren’t many guys going at 50 that impact a team more than Kamara or hunt. Lots of touches, less extreme transition- and get them before the injury bug of a vet.

And that said - I really do believe getting a second tier guy on day two (not waiting til day 3) would be a great investment. Someone that can reliably spell shady would be huge. And lays the groundwork for when shady is gone or falls apart.

Jacksonville? Seattle? Vikings for like 5-10 years? Paired with an elite defense you can can do ok. A safe qb like taylor isn’t terrible for that. Won’t win the super bowl often though and is definitely the exception and not the rule

Late to the game but— zeke barkley gurley fournette And if not for the knee issue I’d have swapped the middle two. I like Fournette a lot but I don’t think his body will last as long and while he’s exciting - something about him just isn’t as “hold your breath every touch” like zeke or going back to Peterson (at least for me)

Depends on the position. Both what we have and what free agency offers. I suspect that last year was a much more reasonable year than this year to stockpile high value comps. We don’t have all that much walking out the door and should be anticipating bringing in some guys. Matthews, brown and Gaines are out - and we need to bring in quality players at all 3 of those spots (possibly multiple)— plus potentially RB2, QB, and both lines. ill be annoyed if we sign a boring player for RB2 that counts against it while otherwise playing cards well— but I expect to need more than 3 quality signings and don’t think they will all have a comparable option that works for us and wants to come here etc...

If you have two relatively equal options but one nets you a pick— I’d say that’s great team building to take the dude that gets you the pick. im not cutting a true contributor mid season but if we are deciding between two depth linebackers that are very similar cost but ones an expiring contract and the other was cut— get the guy that was cut

For the purpose of message board banter, it really is just about as easy as the thread portrays though. ID qualifying signings based on how they left their last team and when they signed. Slot up gains vs losses. Take the average value and compare it to last years guys. If you want to nail the exact round for all 32 picks handed out you might get very slight variations based the in depth process — but the bar napkin example provided will likely suffice in identifying the 31 of 32 recipients and get you 29 of them in the right round and the other 3 being guys on the edge bumping up or down a round or someone being right on the edge of qualifying Sometimes the incredibly simple and very good version is better for fan talk

I’ve always understood it to be average value, not first year salary (too much variation could occur based on structure for similar players getting similar contracts but teams signing having different cap needs skewing signing bonus vs salary) that said, it does seem much simpler than the vague and undefined “snap count, honors, compensation and more!” that is portrayed. Year to year sites do very well predicting with just taking the cutoff on rounds from the year prior, adding a minor escalator for inflation and tossing guys in based solely on compensation (typically average annual value) Yup. I think many get defensive that if you acknowledge luck it’s like saying we didn’t deserve it. Lucks a big part of the wild card. You get about half the conference in a 2 game window— and generally speaking someone gets a lucky bounce, stays a little healthy, and catches a good opponent on the right week and suddenly we talk about them as a deserving team and the teams on the outside as junk. Once you get in that 7 to 9 win dog pile everyone is pretty close and it’s amazing how unlucky we were for almost 20 years. Some of those teams were better than given credit for, and this ones probably not as good as many rolled into Jacksonville claiming. We’ve had a lot of .500 quality rosters but the outcomes of that can be a roller coaster