
BADOLBILZ
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Everything posted by BADOLBILZ
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I do tend to think they will try to run the ball more often.........Dorsey was a game manager QB at The U who lived off the protection of a strong running game and play action throws to TE's with occasional deep shots to then wide open receivers. It got him a ring and is likely still part of his DNA, at least. I'm not entirely against that with Allen.......I think he could be great in a 2 TE offense......... but it is different than what he's mostly done under Daboll. A heavy 12 personnel look might alleviate some of the issues they had with the lack of RAC while being a spread offense. The offense the Bills ran under Daboll eventually required someone to make a play on a short pass in the backfield or within a few yards of the LOS and they didn't have that last season..........so they pulled the emergency lever and started running Allen. But even in 12 personnel.....assuming Knox and Howard both perform admirably.........they still need players who can make explosive plays in the passing game to make it work at a 30 ppg level. That's Diggs and Davis right now.........but Davis hasn't done it week in and out yet and the next name on the X/Z receiver list is Kumerow and that ain't good enough.
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I think the question of whether Tre White will return to form is no less of a mystery than whether Gabe Davis will elevate his consistency to become a 1,000 yard type receiver to fill the numbers void with the departures of Beasley/Sanders. Davis doing THAT is probably more NEEDED than White returning to All Pro form in a defense that protects it's corners schematically.
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I don't know exactly how many but I don't think it's very unusual nor does it say anything about the viability of doing that. Jason Peters and Dion Dawkins are both examples and if the Bills didn't have a gaping hole at LT at the time then Cordy Glenn might have started at guard as well. It's more circumstance than anything else, IMO. Jonas Jennings blocked Peters initially, Glenn blocked Dion initially. Dion Dawkins game declining some this season or next wouldn't be a huge shock.......he's not a generational talent at LT he's been kinda' defying the odds as a shorter, portlier LT because his feet have covered for his less than ideal frame. When the feet go it will likely be a fast fall or a move to guard.
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He's very good. I think there is a perception that if it were down to Dotson or CB Andrew Booth Jr...........that Booth is obviously the better/more valuable asset. I'm not sure that's the case. I don't really know why this has happened exactly........the easy answer is to say that offense is more important than defense............. but WR has eclipsed CB in terms of premium salary expectations. I thought the very top CB and WR contracts would be mirror images at this point in NFL history but that's not what is happening. I know JC Jackson seemed to take a bad deal from the LAC but in general CB's aren't getting $20M+ aav deals...........top WR's are. If a WR is even he's leavin' even applies to cash value of the position now.
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A WR in round 1.........nowadays...........I would expect to rely upon them immediately. They have been coming in hot for a while now and bearing in mind that Gabriel Davis was WR4 in 2020 and put up 600 yards and 7 TD's I would expect plenty of opportunity for a first round rookie WR to make an impact.
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I would say the two biggest foundational needs at this point are a future LT who can play well at guard or RT right now...........and a WR1 with great speed and/or RAC ability. Deficient blocking and a lack of RAC ability from the WR corps cost them regular season games and subsequently home field advantage last year.........but beyond that those are 2 of the 4 most important positions on the roster(QB1/PassRusher1/LT1/WR1) and they can't allow those expensive and difficult to re-stock positions to decline. Those players are what round 1 and to a good extent round 2 are for, IMO. Everything else is a clear notch or more below in priority for this team. They really don't NEED another stud cover corner to play in their zone scheme.........if it happens organically.........say you draft and develop a guy with both man and zone skills in the mid rounds.........great.........but unless the defense is going to make a fundamental change to more man coverage you don't really NEED two pro bowl cover guys in this system. Not saying Andrew Booth wouldn't be worth the pick at #25.........but I'd hope to address the positions where the individual skill level would be more impactful for the team going forward.
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My concern would be that they aren't totally committed to keeping elite talent around Allen..........that now they think he is good enough that he should be able to elevate everyone around him on the offensive side and that they will always find an excuse to focus premium assets on defense. Basically the Green Bay treatment. I'd say that the odds favor them being able to get more help at receiver at #25 than at corner. But the question may be who do you think will be the better pro.........Andrew Booth or Chris Olave/Jahan Dotson/Treylon Burks/Christian Watson/George Pickens(basically whoever one thinks is the better WR prospect likely to be there)? If the answer is definitely Booth then that should be the pick.........but if not and Booth is just prioritized there because of the perception that the defense is just one piece away from being "totally set" then that's probably the wrong way to go about making that decision. If it's a toss up then I favor the Josh Allen side of the equation........that's the way it should be and it's also the side of the ball that's easier to maintain consistency on.
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The Bills offense took a significant step back last regular season.........coming off the loss to NE......the 3rd loss in 5 games, all scoring in the teens.......it was becoming a crisis situation. That's when they turned to the unsustainable run-Josh offense. The Bills defense ranked #1 in 2021. Yet the vast majority of dollars spent in UFA have gone to the defensive side of the ball. 4 legitimate long term deals for DL.........the only actual multi-year deal on offensive side was Bates.......and that was forced by Beane misplaying his hand with the tender. (not saying it won't pay off long term but I don't think for a minute he planned on paying Bates what he had to)
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People might forget the circumstances around all those late season runs by Allen.........they were still happening AFTER he injured his toe in Tampa. It was an act of desperation to stay in playoff position. They tried to not run him against Carolina........it was obvious........but the pressure the OL was allowing(including 4 sacks that day) without using Allen as a hammer on the ground was defeating that purpose. What was really telling were the 15 rushes against lowly Atlanta. It was a clear admission that their offense wasn't working right without designed QB runs. The finale against the Jets was a cake-walk and still he had 5 rushes somehow. They ran Allen 6 times in just 7 series in the dominating win over NE in the WC game but it was back to 11 in KC. It was pretty obvious at the time that running Allen more was a reaction to games where they scored just 9, 15 and 10 points in losses during the 5 game stretch that culminated with the home loss in NE (a game where one of the immediate take aways in hindsight was that they should have used Allen for 10-15 rushes). I do agree they need to run the ball more effectively.....not necessarily more........and I'd like to see more 12 personnel because Allen has been great out of play action...........but I'm not impressed with their OL talent or depth and, as I've said, if Gabe Davis spends half the season hobbled by a foot/ankle injury for a 3rd straight season then that probably means Jake Kumerow playing a lot of snaps outside if they don't get a WR in rounds 1-3. They need to add a potential WR1 and some RAC ability to this WR corps and it's a good draft to do it.
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IMO Dane Jackson is as good of a CB as Ryan Bates is a guard. Both somewhat unproven but have shown really good things that leave one to think they can be adequate+ starters in their respective schemes. And Tre White is more likely to come back and play at a high level than Rodger Saffold is at this point........because White is a better, younger player. My confidence is Saffold is low.......if he comes off the field injured during every game at the Ralph like he did in TN last year he will draw the ire of Bills fans for eating up precious cap space. I do expect a veteran signing at CB as well.........which will be a better player/fit than Greg Mancz or Cody Ford as the Bills backup interior OL........those players STINK and I wouldn't be surprised if neither made the roster. And let me re-iterate that the Bills had a tremendous pass defense last season......even after White went down.........but the Bills OL allowed significantly more combined sacks/pressures than the much maligned Bengals OL in 2021. It's telling, IMO that people think the guard position is all set while CB is such an obvious need. So need is clearly a relative term. I think they NEED to get better at both positions but that they can address both of those positions AFTER rounds 1 and 2. Neither position requires elite talent in the Bills offensive and defensive schemes. I won't be broken up if they address CB in the first 2 rounds...........but the #1 job of ANY organization should be to protect and improve the performance conditions for their QB and they have not done that so far this offseason, IMO. Beane said as much after the season was over but he also paid a lot of lip service LAST offseason to addressing issues about team speed and then went out and added Emmanuel Sanders.
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Over a 4 game stretch Allen ran the ball 42 times........after the home NE loss (6) and before the finale against the uncompetitive Jets(5).......that's clearly what I was talking about and you should remember that. In the middle of that stretch of 4 games they tried to have Allen just throw from the pocket against Carolina, the 3 rush game, but it turned into one of his worst passing games of the year and he was sacked 4 times........so it was back to QB runs. They clearly realized that the offense wasn't working well enough to beat a good team without using Allen like RB1...........this realization after scoring just 9 points in Jax and 15 points and 10 points against Indy and NE in losses at home over a 5 game stretch. Things WERE NOT going well on offense until Josh started pounding the rock. And yes right now the Bills are the betting favorites..........not the #1 team in the NFL........KC was the betting favorite this time last season and didn't reach the SB. Didn't you have a large wager on the Bills win total that went to hell because of that offensive slump at mid-season which was mainly due to the combination of poor OL play and a lack of RAC ability in the receiving corps?
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The Bills were the worst yards after catch team in the entire NFL last year. They NEED someone who can take a short pass and do some damage to keep defense's honest. It's not a want.........it's a NEED. Before Josh Allen turned into RB1 and his 200-carry-season-pace made the Bills offense almost impossible to defend for 4 quarters........there were games where their lack of RAC ability and explosiveness in the short passing game was extremely detrimental. Adding Jamison Crowder and his woeful 3.5 yac figure last year shouldn't be counted on to change that aspect.
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Maybe you don't follow the draft but thinking the Bills could get up into the top tier of the draft with what they have to offer...........and not rob one key position to do it.......was misplaced and it's very relevant to your argument. You tried to mic-drop a link in there without considering what the poster had told you about the math. As for the concept that the Bills can't roster 8 draft picks............they certainly can..........and when you get in a position where the cap is tight it becomes even more important to do so. Drafting and developing mid-late round picks is critical for the team going forward. I'm sure the Bills have some regret about not keeping roster spots open for Jack Anderson and Rachad Wildgoose and then having 15 free agents and numerous holes to fill. Beane isn't going to be able to sign 10 free agents(some his own) for above minimum deals every offseason........he's done it twice in a row but they will have to sacrifice veteran depth in favor of youth in the near future. In an ideal draft the Bills come out of it with a future WR1 and CB1.......plus 2 future starting OL..........and potential replacement options for free agents to be Edmunds, Knox, Poyer and Singletary. Drafts never work out that perfectly.........but that's 8 picks right there and there is roster space for all of that...........and frankly they should be able to get a lot of that done since they aren't drafting for immediate need so they should be able to let the board come to them.
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The problem with the offseason is that the deeper we get into it...........the more people forget how things actually transpired and what it means going forward. The offense that got the Bills back into the playoffs after a late season push was predicated on running Josh Allen 10-15 times per game. The offense needs to be able to function without Josh Allen running..........and certainly not on the 200 carry season pace he went on after the season went code red after the Monday night debacle at home against NE.] I'm all about adding the elite pass rusher............but $15M aav for 3 new DT's was lavish. And swapping out Daryl Williams for Rodger Saffold and Beasley/Sanders for Crowder wasn't enough(if ANY) improvement offensively. I am glad Bates is back because I suspect he will have to fill in for Saffold a lot. Still need more OL help and need a receiver who can produce some RAC for what was the absolute worst RAC team in the NFL. How soon we forget.
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1050 would only get you to 15 by that chart. Not even CLOSE to top 10. You want to go from 15 to 5 by adding a player then it's going to be a player like Gabe Davis..........not a MLB in his walk year or some spare part the Bills have kicking around.
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What did the Chargers need to add on offense? They are loaded at WR and have a RB who scored 20 TD's. They just drafted a stud LT. The biggest investment they made this offseason was $20M aav to retain Mike Williams to retain their strong group of play makers. "The contenders" were already very dynamic offensively and the opposition is trying hard to play catch up because QB play and offense is the name of the game. IMO........the Bills receiving corps is not as talented as it was in 2020..........they are the annual Gabe Davis lower leg injury away from Jake Kumerow playing meaningful snaps on the outside..........in 2020 they had a top 5 WR corps.........they are middle of the road there now.........which doesn't seem like a great position to be in when your HC/GM say WR is your "fastball". Additionally.........the OL was really bad last year in games where the Bills weren't using Josh Allen like a RB. I like retaining Bates but Saffold was a mehcquisition. Offense should be a priority here. I thought you were in agreement with Beane's original statements about protecting Josh being job #1. That hasn't been the tenor of the offseason so far. That's OK but hopefully that changes in the draft. Time to support the only reason the team is a contender........the QB.
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I don't think what you are proposing would even yield what you want......it's hard to filter out the content like that........sometimes the best received posts are gags or something akin........though I agree there are a lot of "why even?" wasted space posts..........like "I trust Beane, whatever he wants to do" in response to a potential transaction.
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I have a feeling you could be correct. Big fan of his talent but don't love the value in round 2. The difference in the quality of your off-ball LB's in your team success itself isn't particularly different between average and excellent ones. But I don't think the defense-centric McDermott sees it that way though and Anderson is definitely a box checker in many areas. I will smh if they go CB in round 1 and then trade up for an off-ball LB with the first two picks though.........as should Josh Allen, IMO.
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Beane to free agent cornerbacks
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For the players I would love to see them get........that's generally the case as I see the board landing, IMO. Doesn't mean that quality won't fall to you though............a lot of people were enamored with Zay Jones and his surreal amount of catches in college and were glad McDermott/Whaley traded up for him..........but Cooper Kupp has turned out to be a whole lot better player. Not saying they should sit on their hands but they've been hit and miss with trade ups in the 5 drafts since McDermott has been here. Allen was obviously a great one and Dawkins and Knox worked out very well. Zay Jones and Cody Ford were spectacular failures and the Edmunds trade hasn't turned out to have been worth the squeeze with two play-making ALL PRO ILB's drafted soon after him.
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Broncos added Russell Wilson. AFC champ Cinci totally re-built their OL. Raiders added the league's best WR Davonte Adams to a team that already made the playoffs. The Dolphins added Tyreek Hill to a team that won 9 straight games late last season........they figure to contend for a WC at least. Browns added a great QB talent and a $20M WR in Amari Cooper. Colts added a legit good starting QB..........Matt Ryan actually played really well despite being on an overmatched team in the game in Buffalo this year..........only game of the year where he was not credited with a "bad throw". He is better than most at dissecting the kind of things the Bills do defensively. There were a lot of good moves made.........the teams you are talking about were already offense/QB driven teams. I agree with Scott that the league isn't suddenly trying to become great at defense..........the focus for the most part is matching the offensive fire power of the defending division champ type teams.
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Maybe. I'm guessing they won't be interested in paying for naming rights in this moment of anger.............but you never know.........taking money from people's vice's ranks just barely above stealing it outright........so I don't think principle should be an issue for a well run gaming company. It's about the next buck.
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You don't draft a guard in the 1st ... or do you?
BADOLBILZ replied to Thurman#1's topic in The Stadium Wall
Your line of thinking is lost on some people...........they don't understand that an all-pro guard has less organizational impact than a simply "good" player at many other positions...........and FAR less impact than an all pro at a key position. Those early picks are your lottery tickets.........some people would rather have a higher chance of winning $5 back than taking greater risk but with a chance to hit the jackpot. That's a losing proposition in the NFL but there will always be those people who in that moment would have taken low risk stud Quenton Nelson over the ultra high risk Josh Allen if that were the choice...........and those people would also be wondering why new stadium negotiations aren't going so well.