prissythecat

The statistical comparisons of outcomes is interesting to an academic or someone who has taken enough statistics/probability to understand the analysis. But are there actually NFL teams out there that employ PhDs on their staff to run through the numbers to help coaches come up with game decisions? Moreover, stats tell us what can be expected to happen on average. It becomes very difficult to generalize at the extremes. For instance, a 4th and 1 on the 50 yard line during the 2nd Qtr with half the field left is not at all comparable to a 4th and 1 near the goal line with 2 minutes left in the game.

how is completion percentage not a valid statistic for judging qb performance?

The chances that something can go wrong on a 4th and short are higher than for a chip shot FG that puts you up by 13. Easy coaching decision.

There is still lots of man love for Peters on this board.

hmm. but with mandatory sentencing, isn't the parole board's discretion limited? i believe you have to stay in jail for practically the whole term.

the mandatory minimum if he did not plead was actually 3.5 years. by pleading , plaxico got his jail time down to 20 months. so where did you get this 1 year or less figure?

yes. roscoe sure looks good against the second team defense of chicago.

"Innocent until proven guilty" is a legal concept. The facts are that Plax had an illegal gun that went off and could have hurt somone other than him. Goodell CAN act on the facts...

hmmm. ted ginn only toasted us because the bills coaching staff chose to keep a gimpy mcgee in the game against him. ginn did not do much else the rest of the season as i recall.

Did you forget that Fassel failed miserably in his quest to get another NFL job? He is 0-6 in head coach intereviews in recent times? And he had also failed to get the Bills job interviewing against DJ who lots of people on this board view as anathema? So thinking that JP should shine under Fassel maybe a stretch. If other NFL teams were not willing to give the guy another coaching position, it might be because the guy is just not that good.

Whether or not JP showed improvement is totally irrelevant. The point of my post was to refute the notion that head coaches hold the hands of QBs. Thats not their job.

Does a head coach really spend a lot of time working with a QB? Sam Wyche spent quite a bit of time working with JP as I recall when he was still our quarterbacks coach. And Sam Wyche was not a slouch as a coach...

An important point that many people forget. Says a lot about Vick's character.

Thanks. Yes. It looks like the situational stat page where I got the long yardage attempt data defaults to the 2008 season. I haven't been able to find any stat source where good bomb figures are provided so had to resort to using long passing downs as a proxy for situations where the qb would resort to throwing the big one. At any rate , I think its time to move on on the JP topic like some folks have mentioned. He may indeed still be able to get a second chance (and maybe make something of himself). After all, he is still young and his physical abilities should still be at their peak.

What an enlightened reply. You are comparing JP Losman to Brett Favre? Brett's career was not marked by his ability to land a few bombs and then suck at everything else. And where are these stats you quote? If you want to debate intellectually. post some facts, don't spew inanities like a caveman. Here is a summary of some key numbers based on Yahoo sports: Brett Favre Seasons: 18 Games: 273 Career QB rating: 85.4 Completion Pct : 61.4 YPG: 238.6 Y/A: 7.0 TD: 464 Int: 310 Fumbles Lost: 56 For situations requiring passes of 11+ yards Att: 42 Comp: 62 Yards: 473 Completion Pct: 67.7 Y/A: 7.63 JP Losman Seasons: 5 Games: 42 Career QB rating: 75.6 Completion Pct: 59.3 YPG: 147.9 Y/A: 6.6 TD: 33 Int: 34 Fumbles Lost: 17 For situations requiring passes of 11+ yards Att: 11 Comp: 19 Completon Pct: 57.9 Y/A: 9.10 So I will give you that in long pass situations (11+yards) JP does get a higher Y/A. But then again JP completes a significantly lower percentage of his passes compared to Brett on such attempts (57% compared to 68%). Also look at things like TD to Int ratio as well as fumbles lost / game. Brett threw 1.5 TDs for every interception while JP threw 0.97. Thats a huge disparity. On fumbles lost / game, Brett has a ratio of .20 while JP has a ratio of .40? Another large gap. These are the prime reasons why JP is considered a lousy QB by a lot of folks. In summary, JP looks really bad in the major categories compared to Brett. And Brett' stats include seasons where he was already past his prime. So in the end, I don't see how JP Losman compares to Brett. And it seems that you lose your argument about periodic bomb landings as Brett had pretty high completion rates overall --even when looking just at the long pass attempts.

Hmm. What are Trent's strengths?

If all it took to be a top QB in the NFL was the ability to land a bomb every once in a while and do nothing else well (like reading defenses), then maybe JP would succeed.

I disagree. Jackson cannot carry the Bills. He is at his best coming in to spell the primary running back because he provides a good change of pace. But he is not someone that the team can rely on to consistently pound the ball. There is a reason why the coaches use Lynch as the main ball carrier. A pretty decent summary from www2.sportsnet.ca on Jackson is as follows: Scouting Report Assets Very fast. Surprises defenders in the open field with his sudden burst. Great hands and receiving skills. Runs with determination and will break some tackles. Flaws An old prospect who spent time knocking around indoor leagues and Europe. Runs upright and will take too many hits. More of a change-up runner than a guy who can handle 20 carries from the I-formation. Career potential Excellent role player.

Marv Levy was coaching the talent base that was mainly established by Bill Polian... Marv was merely a competent coach.

So if Quinn is so good, then why is Cleveland being mentioned as one of the suitors for Cutler in the various sports updates about Denver's trade possibilities?

Vick has some talent as a runner. He is at best a middling passer (career QB rating of 76 ). Runners who can pass probably are not the best choice for most NFL teams for the QB position.

JP was benched because people who should be experienced at evaluating player talent and performance saw that he just wasn't progressing. He has been in the league since 2003 and still has poor command of his position in terms of ability to read defenses and in ability to lead. He still looks hopelessly lost in the pocket even now. There is a reason why JP has not been approached yet by anyone for a roster spot. I remember comments from sportswriters last season after JP acquitted himself so well subbing in that went something like: "The best thing JP can do to further his chance in free agency is sit on the bench." JP may have great athletic ability. But you need more than that to play in the NFL. Being able to land 1 out of 5 bombs (an exaggeration for illustration purposes of course) to Lee Evans is a poor indicator of success. The road is littered with failed QBs who have tremendous athletic talent but have no head for the game. And it looks like JP unfortunately needs to be added to that list.

Yup. I definitely agree with you. Key point here is "all things being equal".

Arm strength probably has relatively little to do with how fast you can through the football. Its more about technique (e.g., how well you use the other parts of your body in conjunction with your arms and how well you time your motions). There are stick figure QBs who throw the ball like it came out of a rocket launcher and QBs with awesome physiques who throw more like grandma....

Have any teams shown any interest in JP so far? Also if I remember right, more often than not, JP was wildly inaccurate with the long ball.