thebandit27

I figured I'd take a shot at predicting the final 53 prior to the last preseason game. I'll come back and make an update after tonight's game, but for now, here's my take... QB (2) - J. Allen, M. Barkley RB (4) - L. McCoy, F. Gore, D. Singletary, M. Murphy FB (1) - P. DiMarco TE (3) - D. Knox, T. Sweeney, L. Smith WR (7) - J. Brown, C. Beasley, Z. Jones, R. Foster, A. Roberts, I. McKenzie, D. Williams OL (9) - D. Dawkins, Q. Spain, M. Morse, C. Ford, T. Nsekhe, J. Feliciano, R. Bates, S. Long, W. Teller ST (3) - R. Ferguson, S. Hauschka, B. Colquitt (projected trade with Cleveland) DE (4) - J. Hughes, T. Murphy, S. Lawson, D. Johnson DT (4) - S. Lotuleilei, E. Oliver, J. Phillips, H. Phillips LB (6) - M. Milano, T. Edmunds, L. Alexander, C. Thompson, J. Stanford, D. Lacey CB (6) - T. White, L. Wallace, T. Johnson, K. Johnson, S. Neal, L. Pitts S (4) - M. Hyde, J. Poyer, K. Coleman, D. Marlowe PUP - T. Kroft PS - T. Jackson, C. Wade, R. McCloud, I. Boettger, J. Jones, V. Joseph, D. Rice, J. Johnson

I don't think anyone's particularly gaga over him (or at least if they are I haven't noticed). I think he's clearly their #3 LB, but he has a lot of value to them as a guy that can rush the passer, defend the run, acquit himself in coverage, and play special teams.

Well, you know how that stuff goes: if it didn't hit the news wire then it definitely didn't happen behind closed doors.

Actually, it's a BillsWire piece that's reporting numbers from PFF, who--while I don't flat-out endorse their methodology or grading system--has no obvious bias in their evaluation. As for the numbers, well, he did rank 4th among OLBs that play in a 4-3 in sacks Anyway, the point I was making is that he's clearly not terrible in coverage or losing the step that you seemed to imply.

https://billswire.usatoday.com/2019/02/06/lorenzo-alexander-did-it-all-pro-football-focus-buffalo-bills/ "Just grazing Alexander’s statistics, it’s easy to see he’s still got it, too. In total, Alexander had 74 tackles and 6.5 sacks in 2018, up from only three in 2017. His career-bests come in were in passes defended (9) and interceptions (2)."

I wonder what some of the more skeptical folks will say given that Tony Pauline's name is attached to this report. Pauline certainly has more credibility than some other folks that had listed the Bills before.

That's certainly a fair viewpoint. Let me ask this: suppose all 3 of Mahomes/Watson/Trubisky live up to the hype...and then 4 of Baker/Darnold/Allen/Jackson/Rosen become franchise guys. Even if the quality of the '18 class on a per-QB basis doesn't quite catch the '17 class, which would be the better class? Because that's part of the argument: if Beane and McDermott felt like they had a better shot at a franchise QB based upon quantity of available prospects, that weighs into it. I also think that the appraisal of their passing on Mahomes is really quite simple: McDermott was here, Beane wasn't. McDermott didn't want to make a call on a franchise QB draft pick without having the input of his hand-picked GM, so he kicked the can down the road. Right or wrong, that was the decision. They interviewed Trey Brown from Philly--he's the guy that was on the Microsoft tablet commercial that aired all season last year.

I could see it.

What if you were the board's official Mahomer since June of 2016 and watched him fall into your favorite team's lap right when they needed to pull the trigger on a franchise QB? Can you feel that way then? Asking for a friend Way too early to make that call.

I would agree if their owner hadn't already put his stake in the ground on Green retiring a Bengal...that, and the fact that he's not healthy at the moment.

It's not really about winning man; I guess I just figured that--if you're like me--you'd want to know when you're drawing a conclusion that doesn't necessarily mesh with the information. Hope that didn't come off as over-reaching; I tend to like the analysis part of it.

Teams didn't "run successfully" routinely against the Bills. They ran at an average clip; that's what yards per carry tells you. 4.2 isn't bad, in fact, it's top 10. If you somehow believe that the number of incompletions per game, completions per game, or run/pass percentage changes that, well, I'd like to hear your reasoning. When you actually take the time to delve into the numbers, you see that they were, in fact, quite good. I could point to Football Outsiders DVOA, which takes every metric you're mentioning into context, but let's look instead at the context provided by drive stats: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestatsdef/2018 Notice that the Buffalo defense ranked: 2nd in yards allowed per drive 10th in points allowed per drive 9th in turnovers forced per drive 12th in INTs forced per drive 9th in fumbles forced per drive 1st in plays run by opposing offenses per drive 3rd in time of possession by opposing offenses per drive 6th in drive success rate Absolutely nothing in there indicates that teams moved the ball well routinely. Not in the raw numbers, not in the weighted numbers; nowhere. In fact, the only place that you can really pick nits with their performance is in the red zone. Now for the real kicker: they did all of this despite having the worst average starting LOS per drive in the league. It sounds like what you really wanted to say was that they weren't an elite unit, which is fine, but let's remember that the original bone that I picked was that the pass defense only looked as good numbers-wise because of blow-outs and them supposedly getting run all over. That is categorically untrue.

No offense here, but if you want to make the point that the pass defense wasn't good, shouldn't those numbers be part of the context that you already know and understand in order to support your viewpoint?

There's a few misconceptions in your work here: 1) They did not rank well against the pass due to the blowout effect. They were just plain good against the pass, as evidenced by the fact that they allowed a league-best 6.3 yards per attempt to opposing QBs. They were also 3rd in the league in passer rating allowed to opposing QBs with a rating of just 82.6. 2) The run defense was middling, not leaking like a sieve as you've implied. They allowed just over 114 ypg, which ranked 17th, and allowed only 4.2 yards/carry, which actually ranked 9th in the NFL. 3) Flacco didn't hit his TEs all day in week 1. Yes, 9 of his 25 completions went to TEs, but 6 of those came in the 1st quarter. Also, it's a bit disingenuous to characterize an entire season's worth of performance based upon what was clearly a total bust of a game in week 1. In fact, when it comes to TEs, the Bills had the best pass defense in the NFL. They allowed the fewest yards to opposing TEs (512) on the 2nd-fewest catches (49). https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2018/fantasy-points-against-TE.htm

Isn't that a bit of a personal question?

Nothing to it...

Did you watch the Super Bowl?

Yes, you are definitely debating the rest of the world on this one

I really hope this wasn't a "contract status was affecting his psyche" signing.

I would probably sign my franchise tender because guaranteed money

Probably either hold out until after the trade deadline, hold out until after week 10 to get his accrued season, or pull a Leveon Bell.

I don't mean to offend here, but I'm pretty certain that you're the only person debating this

Here's the CBA for anyone that wants to analyze: https://nfllabor.files.wordpress.com/2010/01/collective-bargaining-agreement-2011-2020.pdf The first sentence of the paragraph in question doesn't imply what you're suggesting. Here's the whole paragraph: Any Club designating a Franchise Player shall have until 4:00 p.m., New York time, on July 15 of the League Year (or, if July 15 falls on a Saturday or Sunday, the first Monday thereafter) for which the designation takes effect to sign the player to a multiyear contract or extension. After that date, the player may sign only a one-year Player Contract with his Prior Club for that season, and such Player Contract may not be extended until after the Club’s last regular season game of that League Year. It's pretty clear: player gets tagged, tagging club has until the deadline to sign him to a new deal. After that date, player can only sign a one-year contract with his prior club, and can't be extended until after that club's final regular season game.

Weak attempt...I give it a 2/10

That's less of a rebuttal and more like a new discussion point, but to answer: they won the division 2 of the last 3 years. They had the league's #1 defense in 2016 (when Watt barely played and was ineffective when he did).