Thurman#1

He wasn't trying. Nix was making a joke when he said that he did that. It has been taken seriously in Bills land, but it shouldn't have been.

Worth mentioning his character issues. And his injuries Also probably worth looking at his QB play and skills to round out the overall picture. This is a deep, in-depth look at Kelly's tape with Sigmund Bloom and Matt Waldman look at a ton of his tape in this hour-long tape evaluation. https://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2017/04/12/rsp-film-room-no-107-qb-chad-kelly-ole-miss/ EDIT: Ah, I see Jeff already posted this. Waldman is really smart, IMHO, and this is a very impressive bunch of video and it's against Alabama mostly and some from Georgia. You see him operating against serious pressure and it's really impressive.

So only three dumpster fire teams were thinking about Tyrod? Hmmm.

Oh, please. It would have been the opposite of near lunacy for the Bills to let him go. It was pretty much a done deal if he hadn't re-negotiated. Obviously Tyrod's team thought so. IMHO Tyrod might have gotten a better deal if he'd cut bait. Teams make dumb mistakes with QBs, look at the contract given to Osweiler - one that will go down in history as a major example of what kind of behavior teams should avoid but sometimes don't. But getting that better deal wasn't even close to a sure thing, and if Tyrod's team had thought it was, they'd have refused to re-negotiate with the Bills.

Shaw, With the old contract, if he'd been on the roster this March, March 2017, he was guaranteed $30.75 mill, and if he'd been on the roster in March 2018, he'd have been guaranteed $40.5 mill. With the old deal, if the Bills had taken his option he was a virtual lock to stay here two or three years, collecting $40 - $56 mill. With the new deal, he's very easy to cut after this year. That is yet another advantage to the Bills in the new deal. If they let him go before March next year, he'd cost them $8.64 mill in dead cap, but if they keep him, they would have to pay him both $10 mill in salary and a $6 mill roster bonus due the 3rd day of the league year in March. (Though $1 mill of that roster bonus is already guaranteed). So cutting him before next year saves the Bills $8 mill against the cap next year. He would be a very easy cut if that's the way they want to go. So he went from an almost certain two to three years at $40 - $56 mill to, under the new contract, a very possible one year deal for $15 mill or a two year deal for $30 mill. Saying that's as good because maybe he can make it up later with other contracts is pure spin. Maybe he can, and maybe he can't. The uncertainty is why players desperately fight for guaranteed money in their contracts. Tyrod took a major hit.

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/tyrod-taylor-7899/ That's what he's talking about, and while you can't prove absolutely and without a doubt anything much about why people do things ... that's why he's here. Because he took a major pay cut. He might have gotten more elsewhere but he was convinced the Bills weren't going to keep him without the pay cut. And he was right. You keep trying to compare Tyrod to Osweiler. And you're right that they were probably thinking of Osweiler when they forced Tyrod to take that pay cut., Os got an absolutely horrible contract for the team, so much so Texas did an NBA-style trade to get rid of his contract. Osweiler is indeed a classic poster boy for why you don't pay franchise money to guys who aren't franchise. He was indeed probably a factor here.

Agreed that they're looking for a guy to bring in. But it's no guarantee that they find him this year out of these guys at the value we're willing to give for each guy. I've stopped even having an opinion myself. Picking QBs is rough. You've got to do it, and you've got to do it repeatedly till you find the right guy. But you don't have to do it in any particular year and set of circumstances.

You know what else could lose him the chance of getting another GM job? Letting another couple of franchise guys past while he DOESN'T draft one. What he's got to do is make the right decision. Avoiding a decision is a decision in itself. Way. Dunno if it will happen, but it sure could. Weren't some of those low carry games a result of his being dinged up, which is probably a function of his age? I wouldn't go Fournette, myself. Too many other needs. And I hope they trade back. That's my guess too.

He's not wrong. He didn't say better at completion percentage. He just said better.

There was an article or two with player sources saying that some defenders thought things were going to be really good in Rex's second year and that Rob came in and changed things up, changed up plays and verbiage and generally screwed things up. This fits right in with that criticism. Whole thing's a shame. Not when we're getting new info even now that may have impacted the decision. It really was bizarre that Whaley didn't even ask why, or said he didn't. Come on, man. You're right that sources sometimes give wrong or misleading info. But none of your theoreticals there, Sully, etc. would be considered a well-placed Bills source. Don't care? Fair enough. But pretending that any unnamed source isn't credible isn't any more reasonable than insisting that any report with a source is absolutely correct.

I don't see it anywhere near that simply. IMHO trading down is a legitimate option and LB or DL or CB would be an equally legit choice if we stay at #10. QB too maybe, though that would be more likely after a trade back, IMHO.

Not all that difficult either. There were around 70 draft trades last year. Each of them involved at least one team that wanted to trade up. Wentz finished strong, two really good games against NYG and Dallas. No way to be sure, of course, but I think he's going to be a good one. The Eagles couldn't put a good running game on the field and didn't exactly have great receivers for Wentz to throw to. Teams were able to shut the Eagles down, but a lot of it had to do with the pieces around him, IMHO.

Considering that Lynch's last two years here, in 2009 and 2010, he averaged 3.8 and 3.6 yard per carry, and that once he was able to start the year in Seattle he suddenly leapt up to 4.2, it's not like that at all. Lynch has always run from the heart and his heart simply wasn't in Buffalo anymore. We didn't really have a choice at that point. This won't happen, but considering his age and the wear on him, McCoy isn't likely to last much longer at this level. He's been terrific for us, but that isn't likely to last much longer

Troup was going to be a very good player till the back injury. And a lot of that back injury came from being a team-first guy willing to try to play through injury. If you haven't read this, you should. http://buffalonews.com/2015/11/21/torell-troup-one-pick-ahead-of-gronk/ As for Howard, it's a different situation. Did we already have one of the best receiving TEs in the league on the roster when we passed on Gronk? I don't think it's impossible, but it would mean picking a second TE over several positions where we don't really have NFL talent, such as corner, LB and RT. From the article: "His rookie year was OK. A start. This second season would be dynamite. "Through the 2011 lockout, Troup trained with a vengeance. He reported to training camp at a chiseled 319 pounds, eager to break out. Practices began at St. John Fisher and the kid who had 23 tackles and no sacks the year prior was dominant for stretches. “'Honestly, I was killing the offensive line,'Troup said. 'Eric Wood, I’m good friends with him, but they couldn’t handle me.' "One day in the lunchroom, head coach Chan Gailey and General Manager Buddy Nix couldn’t contain their excitement. The two asked Troup to sit down with them and told this bull in a china shop they had no clue what he did over the offseason, but, wow, were they ecstatic to see this all transfer to game day. "Their words added more fuel to Troup’s fire. His tear continued. Teammates today still remember Troup’s raw strength. “'Low center of gravity,' guard Kraig Urbik said. 'Super strong. Legs were very thick. Strong dude – he was tough to move for sure.' “'He was a strong dude,' Wood said. “'Big, powerful guy,' added veteran Kyle Williams. 'He’s probably not your pass rusher, but a guy who could stack things up at the line and make plays at the line of scrimmage and do some good things there.' "Reached by phone, Nix instantly remembers this camp well. “'Those big guys are hard to find! Especially him,' Nix said. 'He had some movement ability and was really a strong anchor guy.' "As Nix recalls, the Bills were shifting to a 3-4 scheme when they took Troup and needed a nose to take on double teams."

We have $6.2 million left after the first 51 contracts and after you take off the average rookie draft pool numbers for teams drafting #10. See Spotrac. And this is a team that generally keeps $5 - $6 mill available during the season for injury replacements. So, I like Boldin. But we're about set at this point. We may cut a guy or two who might give us a smidgeon of space but we aren't going to have enough to bring in a big name. Guys won't sign with us for possible-title discounts like they do with teams like the Pats, Packers, etc.

He wasn't the best on the team. But he was good. As usual, the minute somebody goes to a different team the sour grapes thing kicks in and he wasn't anything. But actually nobody put up big numbers in that system with that QB. Woods was good. Not great, but good, and he'll likely put up a lot better numbers in his new gig. And we haven't got anybody to replace him - despite what McDermott says - outside of the draft. And draft WRs generally need time.

Where's the surprise, the mildest possible surprise, in that? We're a team installing new defensive and offensive systems. For, what, the fifth time in the last eight or nine years? New systems often don't fit the old players well, so some will have to go despite the new coach (always) saying he can make anybody fit his system. We're a team dealing with a severe salary cap problem due to our GM's profligate ways. And we are a team that had a 7 - 9 record last year. What were you expecting, 14 - 2? I know it sucks to deal with this, but it takes time, it always takes time. Bringing Rex in and then firing him took a massive amount of pure time. McDermott will also take time. So would anyone given this lineup to work with.

He fit the system fine. We have very very little money left under the cap this year. $12.5 mill left with the rookie draftees taking around $6 mill and the Bills liking to have around $5 - $6 mill on hand during the season for injury replacements. This is what happens when your GM gets you in cap trouble. You have to let guys go who you'd rather keep.

. Not at all, friend. Unlikely beliefs have kept many a person warm at night. And this isn't an impossible belief by any means. Just a fairly unlikely one. Good luck with it

Wouldn't mind the trade back if we pick up value. But if Darnold is as good you hope and think, the team that gets the first pick won't trade it. They'll have a need for a QB and if he's that good, they'll take him. Don't know if you remember this, but we were awful two years before Luck came out. He made the decision to stay in school and plenty of people were happy because they said we'd have a chance at him the next year. Surprise, the Colts didn't want to trade away the Luck pick even though they had Peyton. That's the way it works. People will sometimes trade away high picks if the value is high enough. But not when a Luck or a Peyton is available. If Darnold is all that good, the team with a shot at him will draft him.

All of that is lovely. But off the point. Itt doesn't affect the fact - and it's a stone cold fact - that teams get more starters and productive players from round one than round two. And more in round two than round three. And so on. Fact. And yes, picking top five certainly DOES make it more likely that you'll get a franchise QB. It's not eight times more likely or anything, but yeah, it's more likely. And your Super Bowl thing is irrelevant. Winning the Super Bowl is a team thing, not a QB thing. Being competitive to win a Super Bowl has QB as a major factor. You need a franchise guy. But since there are 10 - 12 franchise guys in the league, winning the SB is a team thing among the teams with franchise QBs. The likelihood of getting a franchise guy improves the earlier he's picked. Fact. You need a franchise QB. You're more likely to get one early in the first than anywhere else. And if you can't get one early in the first then get one a little later in the first, as that's the next most likely place, the place you pick up guys like Flacco, Ryan, Roethlisberger, Rodgers, etc. Heck, Brees was picked #32 as well. I'm thinking of your post again, "most overrated avenue for acquiring talent is round 1." I say this often, because it is a great analogy. It's like what Churchill said about democracy, "Democracy is the worst form of government except for all the others." Exactly. And the first round is the worst and least consistent way to get talent. Except for all the others.

Belichick's got nothing against terrific RBs. He doesn't like expensive RBs. They do indeed have an awful lot on the cap. I doubt it will happen, but if Peterson comes cheap enough, IMHO Belichick would be thrilled to have him. But yeah, he'll likely want to do it in a way that would not eliminate any comp picks. Haven't studied if Peterson is a compensatory guy. If he is, Belichick would likely wait till you can pick them up without reducing your comp picks.

That's not what the tape says. The tape says the Bills - the team - will put up points. Not the QB, the team. Again, points are not a QB stat. They are a team stat. More particularly a stat for the whole offence but overall a complete team stat. Particularly on a team that scored 29 TDs with the running game and 17 with the passing game ... in a league in which not one single other teams scored more running TDs than passing TDs. And beyond that, yes with that injury and the clause that has us paying off his contract for injury it absolutely made sense to take Tyrod out. Particularly when our odds on making the playoffs were basically theoretical. It wasn't actually happening. I like this post. Most overrated avenue ... but also the most productive. And that's a fact. First, round one. Second, round two .... And the difference between 10th and 15th is more choices. That's big. Not to mention more ability to trade downwards and collect more picks.

Me too.

If it were true - and it's not - that wouldn't be a good thing. Dependence on one guy isn't somehow OK ... just the opposite. He missed a lot of open guys who weren't Sammy deep this year. He hit a lot of open guys who weren't Sammy deep last year. Go ahead and believe if you like. Nothing wrong with positive thinking, it just often doesn't have to do with reality. It says more about the believer than the event. In real life, sometimes guys get worse. Other times they get better. The only way to know which is happening is to see what level people find.