Griswold Posted October 24, 2009 Share Posted October 24, 2009 When looking at how a spread is calculated, I envision too different techniques: 1. The spread is designed to get the general public to bet nearly evenly on both sides of the game. In this scenario: the spread is not based on level comparison of the two teams about to meet... the spread accounts for "popularity" or un-popularity. The Book's goal is to balance incoming bets to each team. (book makes $ on transaction cost) or 2. The spread is the score that the book actually thinks will happen. It is arrived at by comparing technical details of how the teams compare to each other. Popularity is not a factor at all. It's o-line compared to d-line, home field, injuries etc. So how is a spread calculated? I think popularity is part of the process. I remember one season, can't remember which, where the Bills were a perpetual spread underdog for almost all 16 games. Rationally evaluated, the Bills were hot on the field that year, Kelly was putting points on the board. But they were persistently underestimated by the public at large... so the books gave more points to Bflo to keep incoming bets even. People who picked the Bills made a killing that season. ..or that's how I see it. How are these spreads calculated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Preston Ridlehuber Posted October 24, 2009 Share Posted October 24, 2009 When looking at how a spread is calculated, I envision too different techniques: 1. The spread is designed to get the general public to bet nearly evenly on both sides of the game. In this scenario: the spread is not based on level comparison of the two teams about to meet... the spread accounts for "popularity" or un-popularity. The Book's goal is to balance incoming bets to each team. (book makes $ on transaction cost) or 2. The spread is the score that the book actually thinks will happen. It is arrived at by comparing technical details of how the teams compare to each other. Popularity is not a factor at all. It's o-line compared to d-line, home field, injuries etc. So how is a spread calculated? I think popularity is part of the process. I remember one season, can't remember which, where the Bills were a perpetual spread underdog for almost all 16 games. Rationally evaluated, the Bills were hot on the field that year, Kelly was putting points on the board. But they were persistently underestimated by the public at large... so the books gave more points to Bflo to keep incoming bets even. People who picked the Bills made a killing that season. ..or that's how I see it. How are these spreads calculated? The "books" ideal scenarion is as you stated in 1. They would be extremely happy if bets were placed evenly and they made their vig with no risk at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West End Stench Posted October 24, 2009 Share Posted October 24, 2009 It's mostly #1. This also explains why lines tend to move throughout the week (all else equal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No QB - No Bueno Posted October 24, 2009 Share Posted October 24, 2009 This is how it works: When she finally unbolts her knees for you, you're indebted for life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clippers of Nfl Posted October 24, 2009 Share Posted October 24, 2009 When looking at how a spread is calculated, I envision too different techniques: 1. The spread is designed to get the general public to bet nearly evenly on both sides of the game. In this scenario: the spread is not based on level comparison of the two teams about to meet... the spread accounts for "popularity" or un-popularity. The Book's goal is to balance incoming bets to each team. (book makes $ on transaction cost) or 2. The spread is the score that the book actually thinks will happen. It is arrived at by comparing technical details of how the teams compare to each other. Popularity is not a factor at all. It's o-line compared to d-line, home field, injuries etc. So how is a spread calculated? I think popularity is part of the process. I remember one season, can't remember which, where the Bills were a perpetual spread underdog for almost all 16 games. Rationally evaluated, the Bills were hot on the field that year, Kelly was putting points on the board. But they were persistently underestimated by the public at large... so the books gave more points to Bflo to keep incoming bets even. People who picked the Bills made a killing that season. ..or that's how I see it. How are these spreads calculated? not your option 1 or your option 2. (but more closer to your option 2) 1st popularity has zero % to do with the spread. more like strengh (power ranking), win/loss record, and home field. there are other things that play in determining the spread. the above mentioned are the main ones. example: saints are obviously favored to win vs the rams. (just an example) if the spread was zero. that means the whole world would bet on saints to win straight up and most likely win the jackpot. vegas loses. big time no-no. so automatically the rams are given 10 points based on power ranking and winning record. if the game is in new orleans one would think that the saints would score at least another field goal. give the rams another 3 points so the spread may look this -13 saints/ +13 rams. see how its kind of balanced now. some would bet on saints and some would bet on rams. its kind of even. as far as the kelly days where we were under dogs....couldnt tell ya. didnt bet during those glory days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clippers of Nfl Posted October 24, 2009 Share Posted October 24, 2009 It's mostly #1. This also explains why lines tend to move throughout the week (all else equal). betting is designed to get the general public to bet. thats the only fact about his theory 1 that is correct. then he or she goes on about popularity. popularity trend maybe a little. popularity of a team. hell no! his 2nd theory where he or she explains technicality as a factor is correct. it starts there. he should have said more like win vs loss record. by the way point spread does not dramatically change from day 1 to last day to bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohninMinn. Posted October 25, 2009 Share Posted October 25, 2009 This is how it works: When she finally unbolts her knees for you, your indebted for life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevestojan Posted October 25, 2009 Share Posted October 25, 2009 betting is designed to get the general public to vote. thats the only fact about his theory 1 that is correct. then he or she goes on about popularity. popularity trend maybe a little. popularity of a team. hell no! his 2nd theory where he or she explains technicality as a factor is correct. it starts there. he should have said more like win vs loss record. by the way point spread does not dramatically change from day 1 to last day to bet. I think you may have missed the point. I think he meant popularity of the bets on that team; exactly what you're point gets to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
papazoid Posted October 25, 2009 Share Posted October 25, 2009 the "opening" line is set using a combo of your example #1 & #2.....meaning using an "oddsmakers" intellect/best guess as to the final score, who's at home, team strengths and anticipating what the betting public will do. After that, the "line" moves daily strictly based on the actual betting that comes in , with the express purpose of getting the exact same amount bet on each team. this way, the casino can't loose because they are going to make their 10% (vig) off of half that total purse no matter who wins. ( i.e. if a casino takes bets on the bills vs carolina game they want $1 million bet on each team so they can profit $100,000 no matter the outcome). TIP : for the serious gamblers out there.......track the "opening" line versus the "closing" line.......when that line spread moves by 2 or more points....the betting public is WRONG, 90% of the time. (thats all i'm gonna say). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Senator Posted October 25, 2009 Share Posted October 25, 2009 The Spread -- How Does It Work? When Taylor Potts runs it, not very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vincec Posted October 25, 2009 Share Posted October 25, 2009 the "opening" line is set using a combo of your example #1 & #2.....meaning using an "oddsmakers" intellect/best guess as to the final score, who's at home, team strengths and anticipating what the betting public will do. After that, the "line" moves daily strictly based on the actual betting that comes in , with the express purpose of getting the exact same amount bet on each team. this way, the casino can't loose because they are going to make their 10% (vig) off of half that total purse no matter who wins. ( i.e. if a casino takes bets on the bills vs carolina game they want $1 million bet on each team so they can profit $100,000 no matter the outcome). TIP : for the serious gamblers out there.......track the "opening" line versus the "closing" line.......when that line spread moves by 2 or more points....the betting public is WRONG, 90% of the time. (thats all i'm gonna say). What he said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Offside Number 76 Posted October 25, 2009 Share Posted October 25, 2009 betting is designed to get the general public to vote. thats the only fact about his theory 1 that is correct. then he or she goes on about popularity. popularity trend maybe a little. popularity of a team. hell no! his 2nd theory where he or she explains technicality as a factor is correct. it starts there. he should have said more like win vs loss record. by the way point spread does not dramatically change from day 1 to last day to bet. Not popularity of the team--popularity of the bet. No. 1 is exactly how it works. There's a great book on this called The Odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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