Have the Bills really overdrafted DBs during the Jauron Era?

[Captain Caveman]

So, I hear this over and over again, and I'm wondering how much truth there is to it.

 

Drafted players by position since 2006 (Jauron's 1st year as head coach.)

 

Year Round Player Position

2008 4 Reggie Corner CB

2009 6 Cary Harris CB

2009 7 Ellis Lankster CB

2008 1 Leodis McKelvin CB

2008 7 Kennard Cox CB

2006 3 Ashton Youboty CB

 

2006 1 Donte Whitner SS

2007 6 John Wendling SS

 

2009 2 Jairus Byrd FS

2006 4 Ko Simpson FS

 

2008 7 Demetrius Bell T

2006 5 Brad Butler T

2006 7 Terrance Pennington T

 

2009 1 Eric Wood G

2009 2 Andy Levitre G

2006 7 Aaron Merz G

 

2006 1 John McCargo DT

2006 5 Kyle Williams DT

 

2009 1 Aaron Maybin DE

2008 3 Chris Ellis DE

2007 7 C.J. Ah You DE

 

2008 6 Xavier Omon RB

2007 1 Marshawn Lynch RB

2007 4 Dwayne Wright RB

 

2007 7 Derek Schouman TE

2009 4 Shawn Nelson TE

2008 4 Derek Fine TE

 

2008 2 James Hardy WR

2008 7 Steve Johnson WR

 

2007 3 Trent Edwards QB

 

2008 5 Alvin Bowen OLB

2006 6 Keith Ellison OLB

2009 5 Nic Harris OLB

 

2007 2 Paul Posluszny MLB

 

1st day defensive backs (Rounds 1-3): 4

2nd day defensive backs (Rounds 4-7): 6

Total DBs: 10

 

1st day OL: 2

2nd day OL: 4

Total OL: 6

 

1st day DL: 3

2nd day DL: 2

Total DL: 5

 

Some added context; we took a huge hit with the drafting of Mike Williams in 2002, and I can see why the FO may have been hesitant to draft lineman high after that debacle. We also spent more money on veterans playing the OL and DL during these years, with big contracts going to Marcus Stroud, Derrick Dockery and Langston Walker, and decent contracts going to Peters, Triplett, Fowler, Denney, and Kelsay. Since CBs have been getting premium money in Free Agency, one can see why the Bills have opted to use draft picks on defensive backs while spending money on the OL and DL on veteran players.

 

After putting this together, my first thought is that it's not necessarily that we're drafting (and signing) the wrong positions, but unfortunately, too often the wrong players. And I also realize that the draft seems to be a crapshoot, with very few organizations being able to consistently pick well, but without this happening, we don't have much chance of turning things around.

 

I know this isn't by any means a complete analysis, and it would be interesting to see what more successful teams have done in the same period, although they have the benefit of not having to rebuild pretty much from scratch during this time.

[Coach Tuesday]

I would love to see (but am far too lazy to compile myself) a similar list for what I consider to be the "model" franchises, which are, in my view:

 

1) Giants

2) Ravens

3) Titans

4) Patriots

5) Eagles

6) Colts

7) Chargers

8) Packers

9) Bears

[Omar Little]

I would love to see (but am far too lazy to compile myself) a similar list for what I consider to be the "model" franchises, which are, in my view:

 

1) Giants

2) Ravens

3) Titans

4) Patriots

5) Eagles

6) Colts

7) Chargers

8) Packers

9) Bears

 

How did you not list the Steelers? They've won two Super Bowls in the last four seasons.

[NewHampshireBillsFan]

So, I hear this over and over again, and I'm wondering how much truth there is to it.

 

Drafted players by position since 2006 (Jauron's 1st year as head coach.)

 

Year Round Player Position

2008 4 Reggie Corner CB

2009 6 Cary Harris CB

2009 7 Ellis Lankster CB

2008 1 Leodis McKelvin CB

2008 7 Kennard Cox CB

2006 3 Ashton Youboty CB

 

2006 1 Donte Whitner SS

2007 6 John Wendling SS

 

2009 2 Jairus Byrd FS

2006 4 Ko Simpson FS

 

2008 7 Demetrius Bell T

2006 5 Brad Butler T

2006 7 Terrance Pennington T

 

2009 1 Eric Wood G

2009 2 Andy Levitre G

2006 7 Aaron Merz G

 

2006 1 John McCargo DT

2006 5 Kyle Williams DT

 

2009 1 Aaron Maybin DE

2008 3 Chris Ellis DE

2007 7 C.J. Ah You DE

 

2008 6 Xavier Omon RB

2007 1 Marshawn Lynch RB

2007 4 Dwayne Wright RB

 

2007 7 Derek Schouman TE

2009 4 Shawn Nelson TE

2008 4 Derek Fine TE

 

2008 2 James Hardy WR

2008 7 Steve Johnson WR

 

2007 3 Trent Edwards QB

 

2008 5 Alvin Bowen OLB

2006 6 Keith Ellison OLB

2009 5 Nic Harris OLB

 

2007 2 Paul Posluszny MLB

 

1st day defensive backs (Rounds 1-3): 4

2nd day defensive backs (Rounds 4-7): 6

Total DBs: 10

 

1st day OL: 2

2nd day OL: 4

Total OL: 6

 

1st day DL: 3

2nd day DL: 2

Total DL: 5

 

Some added context; we took a huge hit with the drafting of Mike Williams in 2002, and I can see why the FO may have been hesitant to draft lineman high after that debacle. We also spent more money on veterans playing the OL and DL during these years, with big contracts going to Marcus Stroud, Derrick Dockery and Langston Walker, and decent contracts going to Peters, Triplett, Fowler, Denney, and Kelsay. Since CBs have been getting premium money in Free Agency, one can see why the Bills have opted to use draft picks on defensive backs while spending money on the OL and DL on veteran players.

 

After putting this together, my first thought is that it's not necessarily that we're drafting (and signing) the wrong positions, but unfortunately, too often the wrong players. And I also realize that the draft seems to be a crapshoot, with very few organizations being able to consistently pick well, but without this happening, we don't have much chance of turning things around.

 

I know this isn't by any means a complete analysis, and it would be interesting to see what more successful teams have done in the same period, although they have the benefit of not having to rebuild pretty much from scratch during this time.

 

Part of the reason people feel the Levy-post Levy/Jauron era was skewed so heavily towards DB's is the all important first pick of the draft for the team. In two of the four years a DB was picked as the first pick of the draft by the Bills. The first pick is where you hope to have your biggest impact player, for the upcoming year and for years to come. Plus, both Whitner and McKelvin were relatively high first round picks. Also, in 2007 they practically had to pick a RB with the first pick and some might say they practically had to pick a DE with the first pick this year. So in the 2 years when we had some options they went with a DB in both drafts as the first pick.

[Thurman#1]

Three DBs drafted in the first round since 1999. That's 11 years. Out of 22 position on the team, if all were equal, you'd expect two CBs picked in 22 years. All isn't equal, of course, but yeah, they are drafted too frequently.

 

For me, the question is whether they re-sign McGee, because if that doesn't happen, we will probably be getting another very high-round pick in the next year or two. I would hate to see that, especially just as they finally seem to be addressing the lines early in the draft.

[Coach Tuesday]

How did you not list the Steelers? They've won two Super Bowls in the last four seasons.

 

I honestly don't like the way they're put together. Their o-line stinks, I'm not a huge Big Ben fan, their drafts have been average, and I think they've been able to get by because of Dick LeBeau's schemes more than anything else. I know that may be controversial but it's my view.

[Captain Caveman]

Three DBs drafted in the first round since 1999. That's 11 years. Out of 22 position on the team, if all were equal, you'd expect two CBs picked in 22 years. All isn't equal, of course, but yeah, they are drafted too frequently.

 

For me, the question is whether they re-sign McGee, because if that doesn't happen, we will probably be getting another very high-round pick in the next year or two. I would hate to see that, especially just as they finally seem to be addressing the lines early in the draft.

 

Actually, if all positions were equal, in 22 years most people would probably expect 4 or 5 DBs, since that's how many are on the field when the defense is playing.

 

EDIT: Just noticed you're using CB and DB to mean the same thing, so not sure of your original intent. There are 2 CBs on the field in our base package, but 4 DBs, including safeties. We've drafted 3 first round DBs (including safeties) in this decade.

[Captain Caveman]

Also, most complaints I've heard here are focused on Jauron, so I haven't expanded this to the past ten years, although I did have a look at the numbers. When looking at the last ten years, the ratio of lineman to cornerbacks drafted gets better (assuming you would prefer to draft lineman.)

[Omar Little]

I honestly don't like the way they're put together. Their o-line stinks, I'm not a huge Big Ben fan, their drafts have been average, and I think they've been able to get by because of Dick LeBeau's schemes more than anything else. I know that may be controversial but it's my view.

 

The two Lombardi Trophies say you're wrong. Moreover, your "model franchise" list includes three organizations that have never won a Super Bowl, one that hasn't since the '90s and one that hasn't since the '80s. To exclude the reigning champion Steelers -- who are pretty much in the playoffs every year and have two Super Bowl titles in the last four -- is ridiculous. I hate the Steelers, but they're probably the best franchise in the sport. The results speak for themselves.

[Captain Caveman]

Part of the reason people feel the Levy-post Levy/Jauron era was skewed so heavily towards DB's is the all important first pick of the draft for the team. In two of the four years a DB was picked as the first pick of the draft by the Bills. The first pick is where you hope to have your biggest impact player, for the upcoming year and for years to come. Plus, both Whitner and McKelvin were relatively high first round picks. Also, in 2007 they practically had to pick a RB with the first pick and some might say they practically had to pick a DE with the first pick this year. So in the 2 years when we had some options they went with a DB in both drafts as the first pick.

 

I think some people were saying in 2006 we had to take a Safety. Last year, we had the option of re-signing Greer and McGee, but at the price Greer signed for I'm not unhappy they passed.

[stuckincincy]

How did you not list the Steelers? They've won two Super Bowls in the last four seasons.

 

One of them was culmination of the Jerome Bettis Victory Tour. The other one?...

[Coach Tuesday]

The two Lombardi Trophies say you're wrong. Moreover, your "model franchise" list includes three organizations that have never won a Super Bowl, one that hasn't since the '90s and one that hasn't since the '80s. To exclude the reigning champion Steelers -- who are pretty much in the playoffs every year and have two Super Bowl titles in the last four -- is ridiculous. I hate the Steelers, but they're probably the best franchise in the sport. The results speak for themselves.

 

I disagree. If I'm looking to build a team, I don't necessarily look at the last few teams to win a Superbowl and try to just copy them. I want to build in a way that guarantees long-term success, which for me would involve the following:

 

1) a quality front office full of keen talent evaluators and great planners

2) a draft/personnel strategy that is coherent, easy to understand, and followed by the entire organization

3) a coaching staff that can adjust based on (2)

4) from an x's and o's standpoint, I want to build from the middle of the field on out, on both sides of the ball - I want to emphasize quality interior offensive and defensive linemen, then passrushers and tackles, then QB/RB/LBs, then WRs and CBs last (notice how the Bills' depth is basically the REVERSE of that?)

 

The Giants IMO are the model franchise using the above rules. The way that team is built, with waves of long-armed, explosive defensive linemen and smart, tough offensive linemen, you could plug in various people at the skill positions (or even at coach) and still win lots of games. Same thing with the Eagles, Ravens, etc. The Pats for me are a bit of an aberration - I think they have the best starting d-line in football and the best QB, but otherwise they depend on quality coaching to win games.

 

The Steelers have not drafted well. Their o-line was the worst in football last season and I still don't think they were a better team than the Ravens or Titans in their own division. But listen, you build your way, I'll build mine.

[Endless Ike]

I would love to see (but am far too lazy to compile myself) a similar list for what I consider to be the "model" franchises, which are, in my view:

 

1) Giants

2) Ravens

3) Titans

4) Patriots

5) Eagles

6) Colts

7) Chargers

8) Packers

9) Bears

 

The BEARS?

 

the bears are a hot mess, and have been for a while

[TallskiWallski83]

In a nutshell: Hell yes we have taken too many DB's. Unless Whitner somehow becomes a playmaker this year, which I doubt because he hasn't even come close his first 3 years in the league, we should have never passed on Ngata. Imagine what our D would look like if we had him and stroud paired together.

 

Our depth is scary thin on the oline, but were pretty well stacked everywhere else. Hopefully we get lucky injury wise this year and can add more depth in the 2010 draft.

[ans4e64]

10 DB's in 4 years? Yeah, I'd say that's overdrafting.

 

Meanwhile, we've been starved for DT help since before Jauron was here, yet we only draft 2 of them.

 

4 of the 6 offensive lineman were drafted in the 5th round or later. With the only other 2 being from this year. Jesus.

 

All the OLB were drafted in the 5th round or later.

 

10 DB's in 4 years????? My God.

[Captain Caveman]

In a nutshell: Hell yes we have taken too many DB's. Unless Whitner somehow becomes a playmaker this year, which I doubt because he hasn't even come close his first 3 years in the league, we should have never passed on Ngata. Imagine what our D would look like if we had him and stroud paired together.

 

This would seem to go with my point that it's not the positions, it's the players. Remember, in that same draft, the Bills took McCargo in the 1st round also. Of course, McCargo has proven to be a bust given his sraft status, but at the time we needed a S, and the Bills thought McCargo was the answer at DT. It appeared that we were addressing both needs.

 

No one is happy with the success rate of our draft picks. And yes, we do seem to have drafted a fairly high ratio of defensive backs, but I can buy that since we had been spending money on other aspects (OL and DL included.) It's just that we have not been successful in getting and keeping the right players, both in FA and in the draft.

[BuffaloBill]

I honestly don't like the way they're put together. Their o-line stinks, I'm not a huge Big Ben fan, their drafts have been average, and I think they've been able to get by because of Dick LeBeau's schemes more than anything else. I know that may be controversial but it's my view.

 

 

For a team you assess as not well put together sure has been successful.

[BuffaloBill]

This would seem to go with my point that it's not the positions, it's the players. Remember, in that same draft, the Bills took McCargo in the 1st round also. Of course, McCargo has proven to be a bust given his sraft status, but at the time we needed a S, and the Bills thought McCargo was the answer at DT. It appeared that we were addressing both needs.

 

No one is happy with the success rate of our draft picks. And yes, we do seem to have drafted a fairly high ratio of defensive backs, but I can buy that since we had been spending money on other aspects (OL and DL included.) It's just that we have not been successful in getting and keeping the right players, both in FA and in the draft.

Wasn't McCargo taken the year before Whitner - same year as Loserman because we traded up to get back into the first round to get him

[Captain Caveman]

4 of the 6 offensive lineman were drafted in the 5th round or later. With the only other 2 being from this year. Jesus.

 

True enough. But let's look at the line in those years.

 

LT: Jason Peters (Pro Bowler)

LG: Dockery ($49 Million Contract)

C: Fowler / Preston (Ok, here were some losers.)

RG: Butler (decent starter)

RT: Langston Walker (decent starter, large contract)

 

I'm not going to rehash everything that's happened which has made this line obsolete. But in preseason 2008, it appeared that they had assembled a pretty good line, minus maybe the Center position.

 

All the OLB were drafted in the 5th round or later.

 

Again, you're right. But until this year, we looked pretty solid at linebacker. (If not for the Crowell disaster last year, we would have had three very solid players.) This year, we felt we had bigger needs in the draft. I agree, but certainly it would have been nice to pick up a starter in FA.

 

We've had a lot of "disasters" over the past 4 seasons, and I'm not absolving Jauron or the front office of any of them. I'm just saying that drafting too many cornerbacks has not been a major problem. We've had other, much bigger problems.

[Captain Caveman]

Wasn't McCargo taken the year before Whitner - same year as Loserman because we traded up to get back into the first round to get him

 

Nope

 

http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft...0&type=team

 

Losman and Evans were 2004, McCargo and Whitner 2006.