billnutinphoenix Posted October 28, 2008 Share Posted October 28, 2008 Zogby has it down to 4 points (as of Tuesday), Battleground and IBD/TIPP has it down to 3, Rasmussen has it down to 5..And before anyone says look at the state polls - I want to remind everyone that state polls take a little time to tighten after national trends...I'd say look on Friday.... I am not saying McCain will win but iw will be closer than some think! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chef Jim Posted October 28, 2008 Share Posted October 28, 2008 Zogby has it down to 4 points (as of Tuesday), Battleground and IBD/TIPP has it down to 3, Rasmussen has it down to 5..And before anyone says look at the state polls - I want to remind everyone that state polls take a little time to tighten after national trends...I'd say look on Friday.... I am not saying McCain will win but iw will be closer than some think! I think it's going to be a lot more interesting than people think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YellowLinesandArmadillos Posted October 28, 2008 Share Posted October 28, 2008 I think it's going to be a lot more interesting than people think. From here on out it is GOTV efforts and IDing those who are deciding whether they will actually vote. Mostly, who has the better ground game. Public polls mean nothing at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KD in CA Posted October 28, 2008 Share Posted October 28, 2008 I presume it'll be closer than people think because the lefty publications are already working on the "undervote" stories. The NY Times is even dusting off the 'confusing ballot' excuse that will impact 'new voters' in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted October 28, 2008 Share Posted October 28, 2008 Zogby has it down to 4 points (as of Tuesday), Battleground and IBD/TIPP has it down to 3, Rasmussen has it down to 5..And before anyone says look at the state polls - I want to remind everyone that state polls take a little time to tighten after national trends...I'd say look on Friday.... I am not saying McCain will win but iw will be closer than some think! Rasmussen has been between 4-8 for over a month straight, and Obama has never gone below 50 one day in that time. It was 4 last week at this time and is 5 now. Zogby has been all over the board, jumping from 4-8-12-8-4 in a matter of a week. That is completely unreliable, not to mention that it uses metrics no one else is using. The average of all polls is 7-8 points and has been for quite some time. And the states are far, far worse for McCain. Here is a decent explanation of what has been happening from someone who seems to have the pulse of these things... http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/tod...polls-1027.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elegantelliotoffen Posted October 28, 2008 Share Posted October 28, 2008 If the race was really tightening you'd see some movement on Intrade yet Obama still gained .5 today while McCain lost .5. The media likes to throw McCain bones every time a poll has him within 5 so that they won't be accused of trying to demoralize Republicans to the point that it effects their turnout. This race is over and will be called before 9pm when Obama wins Pennsylvania and Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chilly Posted October 28, 2008 Share Posted October 28, 2008 If the race was really tightening you'd see some movement on Intrade yet Obama still gained .5 today while McCain lost .5. The media likes to throw McCain bones every time a poll has him within 5 so that they won't be accused of trying to demoralize Republicans to the point that it effects their turnout. This race is over and will be called before 9pm when Obama wins Pennsylvania and Virginia. Not exactly true. Political science studies of polls vs the market predictions indicate that the market predictions actually lag behind and follow the polling trends, not the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elegantelliotoffen Posted October 28, 2008 Share Posted October 28, 2008 Not exactly true. Political science studies of polls vs the market predictions indicate that the market predictions actually lag behind and follow the polling trends, not the other way around. Not Intrade. In 2004 Kerry/Bush contracts swung wildly in real time as the exit polls came out. This is a good read of how Intrade was pretty accurate in 2004, except for when the exit polls leaked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted October 28, 2008 Share Posted October 28, 2008 Not exactly true. Political science studies of polls vs the market predictions indicate that the market predictions actually lag behind and follow the polling trends, not the other way around. You follow this stuff, and polling pretty close, and I think you know what you're talking about. I would be surprised if you thought there were even a decent chance that McCain can catch him in the Electoral College. PA is gone, and VA and CO are almost gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chilly Posted October 28, 2008 Share Posted October 28, 2008 Not Intrade. In 2004 Kerry/Bush contracts swung wildly in real time as the exit polls came out. This is a good read of how Intrade was pretty accurate in 2004, except for when the exit polls leaked. I'll have to read it later (sadly, need sleep for work tomorrow), but the fact that Intrade reacted to exit polls is an example of what I said. That being said, I'll have to look into intrade as I don't know the specifics of intrade versus typical market prediction systems (and I acknowledge that it could be that fastly reacting). You follow this stuff, and polling pretty close, and I think you know what you're talking about. I would be surprised if you thought there were even a decent chance that McCain can catch him in the Electoral College. PA is gone, and VA and CO are almost gone. Yeah, I'm of the opinion that it's going to be a blowout. My opinion's slowly shifted from a solid Obama win (with a small chance of McCain coming back) to a blowout barring a crisis. I think you'll see the race tighten up a little in some states (because while Obama's ground game is good, I'm not sure the Dem's first well organized ground game in forever can compete with the Republican's), but I'm not sure its going to make an overall difference in any of those states (and thus steal electoral votes), leading to the blowout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted October 28, 2008 Share Posted October 28, 2008 Hardly anyone is denying that there is serious back-stabbing and finger-pointing and resume floating amongst McCain and Palin campaigners. That is the very best indication that it's all but over. Even they know, and have somewhat given up. They will publicly fight to the end, and it's possible something unforeseen could happen. But it is all in the never say never category. My only worry is a little complacency of the Dems, thinking it's over so they don't have to vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elegantelliotoffen Posted October 28, 2008 Share Posted October 28, 2008 You follow this stuff, and polling pretty close, and I think you know what you're talking about. I would be surprised if you thought there were even a decent chance that McCain can catch him in the Electoral College. PA is gone, and VA and CO are almost gone. I really don't see any possible electoral path McCain can take to hit 270. If Obama carries every Kerry state then all he needs to add is Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado to get 273. Winning Virgina, Ohio, Missouri, Florida, Nevada, or North Carolina would be a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elegantelliotoffen Posted October 28, 2008 Share Posted October 28, 2008 I'll have to read it later (sadly, need sleep for work tomorrow), but the fact that Intrade reacted to exit polls is an example of what I said. That being said, I'll have to look into intrade as I don't know the specifics of intrade versus typical market prediction systems (and I acknowledge that it could be that fastly reacting). It's pretty interesting. Around the Republican Convention McCain was actually trading in the high 50's, low 60's and Obama was in the high 30's, low 40's. You could have made a hell of alot of money off shorting McCain at 60 and buying him back this week at about 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elegantelliotoffen Posted October 28, 2008 Share Posted October 28, 2008 http://people-press.org/report/465/mccain-support-declines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Big Cat Posted October 28, 2008 Share Posted October 28, 2008 http://people-press.org/report/465/mccain-support-declines Well, right now 11, 000 Colorado voters are awaiting "missing" absentee ballots. Anoter 16,000 Colorado voters were illegally purged by their secretary of state (law suit pending). And 200, 000 voters in Ohio don't have registration data that matches national data bases PRECISELY, thus inhibiting THEIR ability to vote- case currently being pursued by the Federal Government. If everyone who is legally permitted to andwanted to vote votes, and their vote is correctly counted, then McCain doesn't stand a chance. Alas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
In-A-Gadda-Levitre Posted October 28, 2008 Share Posted October 28, 2008 Zogby has it down to 4 points (as of Tuesday), Battleground and IBD/TIPP has it down to 3, Rasmussen has it down to 5..And before anyone says look at the state polls - I want to remind everyone that state polls take a little time to tighten after national trends...I'd say look on Friday.... I am not saying McCain will win but iw will be closer than some think! huh? who says? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Adams Posted October 28, 2008 Share Posted October 28, 2008 Not Intrade. In 2004 Kerry/Bush contracts swung wildly in real time as the exit polls came out. This is a good read of how Intrade was pretty accurate in 2004, except for when the exit polls leaked. How did Intrade do in predicting Palin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elegantelliotoffen Posted October 28, 2008 Share Posted October 28, 2008 How did Intrade do in predicting Palin? Her contracts were less than Pawlenty, Romney, Ridge etc until news broke about the private jet flying from Alaska to Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted October 28, 2008 Share Posted October 28, 2008 Her contracts were less than Pawlenty, Romney, Ridge etc until news broke about the private jet flying from Alaska to Ohio. In other words, it's pretty good at predicting things that have already happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elegantelliotoffen Posted October 28, 2008 Share Posted October 28, 2008 In other words, it's pretty good at predicting things that have already happened? It's not very accurate when their isn't any quantitative data to base the prediction on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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