What will the Bills do with their first round pick of 2009?

[Bill from NYC]

I don't get how you say this Bill. I don't see how we could have gotten down to the #23 spot in the draft to select Joseph.....I've already covered the Mangold #29 thing with HA. We were never going to draft a player who was obviously rated(in terms of potential & impact) much lower than the players available at #15(I'm assuming a trade down here with Denver).

 

Here's a concept......perhaps.....just perhaps, the Bills absolutely loved what they saw in DW & had him rated well above most other players. They might well have been wrong but you'd expect your team to select the player who they had rated well above the other players available wouldn't you(ala Trent Edwards)?

 

I might be confusing you with someone else, but did you once post that "there is no such thing as a reach?" If it wasn't you, I am sorry.

 

Btw, I very narrowly subscribe to this philosophy. For instance, I have posted that Mike Williams was a reach because he was a RT, and they go traditionally low. That said, if he was as good as Bob Brown or Erik Williams, he would have been a steal. I hope that I am making sense.

This was what I was trying to say about TD in the other thread (unknown if I successfully explained my point). Selections like MW (RT), Parrish (our first selection that season on a gadget player), Losman (1st, 2nd and 5th), and MaGahee (missed 20 straight games after he was drafted) became very high risk in terms of playing well enough to justify their slots.

 

Now, if Joseph turns out to be a top quality LG, would he have really been a reach at 15 or so instead of 23? I think not. Trueblood was taken even later in the 2nd round. He was a literal steal. I am guessing that his cap figure is approx. 2 million (nothing but a guess), and every time I watch him, he is kicking someone's ass. Our failure to draft these guys cost Ralph 73 million dollars (Dockery and Walker).

 

This is not hindsight in my case, but please understand that I do not pretend to know as much as TD, Jauron, etc. about drafting players. Of course I do not! My issue is not wth Whitner, and I hope I have made this clear. I object to the Bills, a team that plays in the elements in front of a rocking blue collar crowd, attempting to build a team from the secondary over and over again.

If we had a solid DT to play next to Sroud, a better pass rush and better blockers inside, I would be a lot less worried about the jests this week. That said, I hope McKelvin runs back a couple of TDs, and Whitner has 2 sacks and 2 picks.

 

PS: You guys are a little tough on H.A.

[UncleBuff]

HA started this poll for the purposes of sardonic comedy, mocking the Bill's f/o penchant for drafting db's.

Most responders could not see that.

I am shocked BillNYC you of all people who have HAMMERED the F/O for selecting 1st round dbs should have immediately clicked on it.

El Deano now denies his well documented Losman lust on this thread.

You seem to have now transferred that man love to ML, not a bust like JP but a reach none the less.

Whats next? You gonna say you voted for JP before you voted against him Dean?

[The Dean]

.

El Deano now denies his well documented Losman lust on this thread.

 

 

Please document it, if it is so well documented.

[Dibs]

Show me a mock draft which has him going between #9 and #15. I've seen nothing to indicate that anyone other than the Bills considered Whitner a top 15 pick. Many or most very knowledgeable people--including Carucci and Kirwan--considered Whitner second round material.

Firstly I'd like to apologize to you(& the board).....I've been unusually aggressive and short which not only leads to me being less concise in my arguments.....but also a bit rude in my responses(which I try not to be).

 

I'll endeavour to explain why there can never truly be a 'reach' in the draft.....and only in hindsight can there be a 'perceived' reach.

 

Often we see a player who is highly rated by the 'media consensus'(MC) drop waaaaay past his projected draft position(Winston Justice in 2006 was a great example of this). When this happens it shows us that a majority of the NFL teams placed a much lower value on the player than the MC. Most NFL teams had a totally different grade on the player than the MC.

When a player is drafted higher than the MC......there are two extremes which could be the situation.....and everything in between the two extremes.

The team drafting could have a 'hard on' for the player......thus having him rated well above every other NFL team.

The team drafting could(like the player that drops massively) have a similar rating to a majority of NFL teams(which is different to MC).

.....or somewhere in between.......with some but not all NFL teams having a high rating on the player.

 

When a player is selected well above his MC draft position.....or well above others at his position who were rated much higher by the MC.....the media(obviously) calls this a reach as it is vastly different to the MC.

Knowing however that the MC can get it greatly wrong(which we can see when a player drops a lot)......the only way one can know if a majority of NFL teams had the player rated similar to the MC or similar to the drafting team is to look at their draft boards(which doesn't happen).

 

As examples......

Levi Jones was a reach....yet he showed he was worth the #10 selection.(How many other NFL teams had him rated that high?)

Edgerin James was a reach(particularly being taken above Ricky Williams)......yet he showed he was worth the #4 selection.(How many other NFL teams had him rated that high?)

Donnie Avery was a reach(he wasn't even considered in the top 5 WRs by MC yet was the first WR chosen).....yet he is showing that he could well be the best selection.(How many other NFL teams had him rated that high?)

Ted Ginn Jr. was a reach.....after last week he is showing that perhaps he was worth the #9 selection.(How many other NFL teams had him rated that high?)

Donte Whitner was a reach.....yet he has shown(so far) that he was worth the #8 selection.(How many other NFL teams had him rated that high?)

 

With the concept that the MC can get it very wrong indeed compared to the NFL teams doing the selecting(shown by players dropping).....it is not logical to assume that a team that drafts a player above the MC has a 'hard on' for the player. It makes far more sense in the short term to assume that some(if not a majority) of NFL teams also see something in the player. If the player actually turns out to be a good NFL player then it strengthens the likelihood that more than just one NFL team saw the potential pre-draft.

Even if the player busts out we can only guess at how many teams might/might not have had him rated as high as he was selected.

 

Essentially what you are saying is that even though the Bills had a much more realistic(better) rating on DW than the MC......and that they were pretty much the only team that did.......instead of being clever for having such an astute analysts of talent they were in fact stupid since they should have known that no other team rated him as highly as themselves. Your logic assumes that the Bills not only over-rated DW compared to the rest of the league.....but that they would have knowledge of this and should have traded down. That just makes no sense at all.

 

The reality probably was that many other NFL teams had him rated quite high. To keep trying to show how the Bills erred here does not make sense. If they were the only team to recognize the talent.....that's a good thing. If they weren't(more likely) they did the wise thing and assumed that other NFL teams don't actually look at the MC for their draft board & had DW similarly rated.

[Dibs]

I might be confusing you with someone else, but did you once post that "there is no such thing as a reach?" If it wasn't you, I am sorry......

.....Now, if Joseph turns out to be a top quality LG, would he have really been a reach at 15 or so instead of 23? I think not. Trueblood was taken even later in the 2nd round. He was a literal steal. I am guessing that his cap figure is approx. 2 million (nothing but a guess), and every time I watch him, he is kicking someone's ass. Our failure to draft these guys cost Ralph 73 million dollars (Dockery and Walker)......

 

PS: You guys are a little tough on H.A.

It was me....probably said in this thread.

I totally agree with you that if Joseph had been selected at #15 that he would not be considered a reach(I'm basing this on him being a very good player).

The thing is though that he was selected #23. This means that the NFL teams selecting(generally) had him rated at around that level. Assuming the Bills had him rated lower than many other players, it would not have been a wise move to select him above those higher rated players(on their board)......this same applies to all the other teams that let him pass to the 23rd slot.

 

In hindsight he has shown that he would have been a good selection at #15.....maybe higher(I don't know).....but teams have to go with their analysis on draft day(they can't wait a few seasons to see who is going to shine....then go back in time & change their draft board).

 

Keep in mind though Bill that I personally believe that OGs should be selected much higher than they tend to be. From what I've seen they virtually always pan out in the first round. It surprises me that more teams have not picked up on this and place a higher 'perception' value on the position.....i.e. there is extra value in a player who you are more certain will not bust.

 

 

BTW....yes, I was too harsh on HA

[Ramius]

Mike Mayock had whitner going to the Bills at #8.

 

Advantage: Dinosaurs

[Orton's Arm]

Firstly I'd like to apologize to you(& the board).....

That's a classy gesture on your part, Dibs, and it speaks well of your character. I was somewhat surprised by the tone you'd taken earlier in the discussion, because you're usually one of the more civil posters on this board. You typically make your case with logic and data. In other words, you don't fit in.

 

I'll endeavour to explain why there can never truly be a 'reach' in the draft.....and only in hindsight can there be a 'perceived' reach.

 

Often we see a player who is highly rated by the 'media consensus'(MC) drop waaaaay past his projected draft position(Winston Justice in 2006 was a great example of this). When this happens it shows us that a majority of the NFL teams placed a much lower value on the player than the MC.

This is only partially true, or true on some cases. (More on that below.) But to continue . . .

Most NFL teams had a totally different grade on the player than the MC.

When a player is drafted higher than the MC......there are two extremes which could be the situation.....and everything in between the two extremes.

The team drafting could have a 'hard on' for the player......thus having him rated well above every other NFL team.

The team drafting could(like the player that drops massively) have a similar rating to a majority of NFL teams(which is different to MC).

.....or somewhere in between.......with some but not all NFL teams having a high rating on the player.

You've described the spectrum of possibilities quite well.

 

When a player is selected well above his MC draft position.....or well above others at his position who were rated much higher by the MC.....the media(obviously) calls this a reach as it is vastly different to the MC.

Knowing however that the MC can get it greatly wrong(which we can see when a player drops a lot)......the only way one can know if a majority of NFL teams had the player rated similar to the MC or similar to the drafting team is to look at their draft boards(which doesn't happen).

That's true. But sometimes NFL teams indicate where they had players rated. A day or two after Losman had been drafted, an NFL head coach or GM indicated he wouldn't have taken Losman with the last pick of the 7th round. TD sometimes indicated his like or dislike for certain players. But I agree that most of what happens inside those draft rooms remains unknown to the general public.

 

As examples......

Levi Jones was a reach....yet he showed he was worth the #10 selection.(How many other NFL teams had him rated that high?)

Levi Jones is a good example of a player who was picked ahead of where he'd been projected, and who's playing at a high level. But it's one thing to pick a guy a few positions ahead of where he'd been projected--as in this case--and another thing to take a guy 8th overall when mock drafts had generally projected him as a second rounder. The Edgerrin James example is similar. You also mentioned two other examples: Donnie Avery and Ted Ginn. The former is a rookie with 337 receiving yards, the latter is a 2nd year player who had a great game against a gimpy McGee. It's far too soon to tell whether either player is worthy of his draft position.

 

With the concept that the MC can get it very wrong indeed compared to the NFL teams doing the selecting(shown by players dropping).....it is not logical to assume that a team that drafts a player above the MC has a 'hard on' for the player.

I read a very good article about how it's possible for a player to drop, even if teams think highly of that particular player. It was written a while ago, and I don't remember many of the details. Unfortunately, it's the details which make it convincing.

 

But I'll do my best. Suppose you have a TE whom the media considers the 10th best player in the draft. The team that picks 10th needs a TE, so they have him projected going #10. The team picking at #10 thinks highly of this guy, but they think even more highly of a DE--another position of need. So they take the DE, and the TE falls to #11. Then things go as follows:

11) Doesn't need a TE

12) Doesn't need a TE

13) Doesn't need a TE

14) Needs a TE. But this team also needs a LT, and a run on LTs has already begun. This team is much more confident in getting a good TE in the second round than in finding a good LT in round 2. It decides to get a LT now, and take a TE in the second round.

15) Doesn't need a TE

16) Doesn't need a TE

17) Doesn't need a TE

18) Needs a TE, and likes the guy in question. He's the second or third highest rated player on their board. But this team had a particular RB rated the 7th best player in the draft--higher than their 10th best rating for the TE. That RB is still there, and RB is a position of need for this team. So they take the RB.

19) Doesn't need a TE

20) Doesn't need a TE

21) Doesn't need a TE

22) Drafts the TE in question.

 

It's quite possible for a guy to fall from #10 to #22 even though NFL teams generally had him rated as the 10th best player. I suspect something like the above may have happened to Mangold. One of Pat Kirwan's mock drafts had him going at #15, another had him going (IIRC) at #29.

 

It makes far more sense in the short term to assume that some(if not a majority) of NFL teams also see something in the player. If the player actually turns out to be a good NFL player then it strengthens the likelihood that more than just one NFL team saw the potential pre-draft.

From what I gather about Whitner, he was considered a much better prospect for a team running a Tampa-2 than he would have been for teams which run other defensive schemes. The reason why experts such as Kirwan and Carucci had projected Whitner as a second round pick was because they were thinking of him in general terms, not in terms of his fit with the Tampa-2. How many other teams who ran a Tampa-2 were in need of a SS that year, and were in a position to pick in the top 15? Off the top of my head, I'm not aware of any teams that fit that description. This is why I believe Whitner likely would have been there at #15 had we accepted Denver's trade-down offer.

[Orton's Arm]

Mike Mayock had whitner going to the Bills at #8.

 

Advantage: Dinosaurs

Just out of a morbid sense of curiosity, what do you feel is the strongest part of your above post? Your parrot-like repetition of the Maycok factoid? Or your use of that factoid as a springboard for your 3,500th inane attempt at making a dinosaur joke that was actually funny?

[Wilson from Gamehendge]

OSU...CB...MALCOLM JENKINS!!!

 

Stick with tradition!!! (Buffalo Buckeye secondary).

[Tsaikotic]

I'd like to the guys in my sig get drafted by the Bills this April...