Paul Posluszny- A Draft-Day Fear at #12

[Midwest]

With ongoing discussions and the likelihood of a trade of Spiikes, I am afraid that the Bills, whom if last year is any indication will take a player who hasn't been on the fans' radar or not as substantially so, will draft Pos; Posluszny is considered a good fit at strong-side linebacker, which would be his position on the Bills and the position from which Spikes would be departing.

 

I'm not a crackpot and I REALLY, genuinely fear this. The reason that I am afraid has less to do with Posluszny's value as a prospective NFL linebacker (I think he could be pretty good; at least solid) as it does at his value as a draft pick at pick #12. The justification for Posluszny at #12 is already partially being articulated- for what it's worth, there have been more and more suggestions around the league that have him going fourteenth to Carolina (serious linebacker needs before they lost SLB, Chris Draft), and fifteenth to Pittsburgh. In Pittsburgh, Posluszny would be a replacement for Porter but not the pass-rushing threat that Joey was; they're slowly transitioning to a more Mike Tomlin-favored Cover 2 scheme- that's why I'm surprised many believe, mistakenly so, IMO, that pass-rushing threats like Jarvis Moss will go to the Steelers at #15. I doubt they're looking for a prototype of the player they released (if was about more than money or decreasing production out of Porter that they released him). If the Steelers go linebacker, I think that a player like Pos, a better run-stuffer than pass-rusher, will be the sort of player they seek.

 

Jacksonville at seventeenth is also mentioned as a possible destination for Pos, and I could see that happening as well. If not them, then perhaps #20 to the Giants. Then he'd fall to New England at #24, likely. Of course, Posluszny looks better and better the further and further you go down the 1st-round because the Scouts' grades for him (which are not at all identical to individual teams' grades for anyone) suggest that he would be a very significant reach at #12, even with the Whitner-esque rationale provided that the teams not far below us may want him, too. And keep in mind that there is a VERY good chance that Okoye and Willis will not be options; they're two of the hottest and expotential risers in the draft. No, players more likely to fall include someone like Jamaal Anderson, whose combine didn't enhance his status (Levi Brown won't fall out of the top-ten because of he's a projected left tackle- a greater priority usually).

 

I could see this scenario playing out (negating trade possibilities or roster additions- like Carr to Oakland):

 

1. Oakland- QB JaMarcus Russell

2. Detroit- OT Joe Thomas

3. Cleveland- QB Brady Quinn

4. Tampa Bay- WR Calvin Johnson

5. Arizona- DE Gaines Adams

6. Washington- DT Amobi Okoye

7. Minnesota- RB Adrian Peterson

8. Atlanta- FS Laron Landry

9. Miami- OT Levi Brown

10. Houston- DT Alan Branch

11. San Francisco- MLB Patrick Willis

12. Buffalo- OLB Paul Posluszny

[BillsVet]

With ongoing discussions and the likelihood of a trade of Spiikes, I am afraid that the Bills, whom if last year is any indication will take a player who hasn't been on the fans' radar or not as substantially so, will draft Pos; Posluszny is considered a good fit at strong-side linebacker, which would be his position on the Bills and the position from which Spikes would be departing.

 

I'm not a crackpot and I REALLY, genuinely fear this. The reason that I am afraid has less to do with Posluszny's value as a prospective NFL linebacker (I think he could be pretty good; at least solid) as it does at his value as a draft pick at pick #12. The justification for Posluszny at #12 is already partially being articulated- for what it's worth, there have been more and more suggestions around the league that have him going fourteenth to Carolina (serious linebacker needs before they lost SLB, Chris Draft), and fifteenth to Pittsburgh. In Pittsburgh, Posluszny would be a replacement for Porter but not the pass-rushing threat that Joey was; they're slowly transitioning to a more Mike Tomlin-favored Cover 2 scheme- that's why I'm surprised many believe, mistakenly so, IMO, that pass-rushing threats like Jarvis Moss will go to the Steelers at #15. I doubt they're looking for a prototype of the player they released (if was about more than money or decreasing production out of Porter that they released him). If the Steelers go linebacker, I think that a player like Pos, a better run-stuffer than pass-rusher, will be the sort of player they seek.

 

Jacksonville at seventeenth is also mentioned as a possible destination for Pos, and I could see that happening as well. If not them, then perhaps #20 to the Giants. Then he'd fall to New England at #24, likely. Of course, Posluszny looks better and better the further and further you go down the 1st-round because the Scouts' grades for him (which are not at all identical to individual teams' grades for anyone) suggest that he would be a very significant reach at #12, even with the Whitner-esque rationale provided that the teams not far below us may want him, too. And keep in mind that there is a VERY good chance that Okoye and Willis will not be options; they're two of the hottest and expotential risers in the draft. No, players more likely to fall include someone like Jamaal Anderson, whose combine didn't enhance his status (Levi Brown won't fall out of the top-ten because of he's a projected left tackle- a greater priority usually).

 

I could see this scenario playing out (negating trade possibilities or roster additions- like Carr to Oakland):

 

1. Oakland- QB JaMarcus Russell

2. Detroit- OT Joe Thomas

3. Cleveland- QB Brady Quinn

4. Tampa Bay- WR Calvin Johnson

5. Arizona- DE Gaines Adams

6. Washington- DT Amobi Okoye

7. Minnesota- RB Adrian Peterson

8. Atlanta- FS Laron Landry

9. Miami- OT Levi Brown

10. Houston- DT Alan Branch

11. San Francisco- MLB Patrick Willis

12. Buffalo- OLB Paul Posluszny

 

 

I take it you're concerned Buffalo's need will outweigh their draft position and necessitate a reach for a player that is ranked the highest at their respective position? If so, I'd agree.

 

I think this is a realistic scenario. Undoubtedly, BUffalo's hand has been forced with even the proposed shopping of Spikes. I know they couldn't hide it forever, but dealing him alerts everyone that Buffalo has a significant need at LB. And if they get blinders on like they did last season, I can see this happening.

[Lurker]

but dealing him alerts everyone that Buffalo has a significant need at LB.

Letting London walk already did that...

[Kelly the Dog]

If Poz is such a reach at 12, how is that teams at 14, 15 and 17 are strongly considering him.

 

I havent seen him enough to know either way whether I think he will be good or not in the pros. But if the Bills take him at 12 obviously their scouts think he can be a monster in the league. They arent going to take him just because he's a character guy or may remind some people of Shane Conlan (who would have sucked, BTW, in the defense the Bills play now).

[DrDawkinstein]

if it went down like the original post has it, i wouldnt be upset. id be disappointed that that is how the draft played out. but at that point with most/all of our (im assuming) top board guys gone, there is no saying that Poz will be there if we drop back any farther...

[BillsVet]

Letting London walk already did that...

 

Needing one LB is certainly not hard to overcome. But replacing 2 in one off-season demonstrates to me a desperate need. Believe what you want, replacing starters and the turnover experienced this off-season will require some shifty moves on draft day. Using your first pick for a desperate need is very probable considering last year's moves.

[Kelly the Dog]

Needing one LB is certainly not hard to overcome. But replacing 2 in one off-season demonstrates to me a desperate need. Believe what you want, replacing starters and the turnover experienced this off-season will require some shifty moves on draft day. Using your first pick for a desperate need is very probable considering last year's moves.

They really don't need to replace two, it's really one. They obviously think Ellison is starter material. Crowell is pretty decent and could be pretty good. They now need a starter though for Spikes.

[Lurker]

Needing one LB is certainly not hard to overcome.

The Cover 2 lives and dies with the middle of the D and both Willis and Poz are slated to play inside in the NFL. The Bills would be targeting MLB regardless of the Spikes decision, so why conceal any interest in shopping him.

[BillsVet]

They really don't need to replace two, it's really one. They obviously think Ellison is starter material. Crowell is pretty decent and could be pretty good. They now need a starter though for Spikes.

 

Well, I'm not going to put too much faith into a former 6th round pick with size concerns. He's going to be the starter based on the lack of talent at the position. If he fits the bill, fine. But I'm not going to place all my chips on the Keith Ellison table just because the team likes him. Of course that's what they're going to say, he's the only conceivable option left at this point. Buffalo will not go shopping anymore with the cap concerns and Spikes being moved for partially that reason.

[Kelly the Dog]

Well, I'm not going to put too much faith into a former 6th round pick with size concerns. He's going to be the starter based on the lack of talent at the position. If he fits the bill, fine. But I'm not going to place all my chips on the Keith Ellison table just because the team likes him. Of course that's what they're going to say, he's the only conceivable option left at this point. Buffalo will not go shopping anymore with the cap concerns and Spikes being moved for partially that reason.

I know what you mean, and agree to some point. But the scheme the Bills employ is unique (at least from the LB position for 25 or so other teams). Certain guys can excel in this defense and yet would get killed in other defenses. One of the reasons Ellison wasn't drafted higher was because of those size concerns, of those 25 teams that don't play the cover 2 he's too small. But he really doesn't have any size concerns in our defense. I think he was only decent in actual play and production last year but was put in a terrible position and played relatively pretty great. I'm interested to see what he can do. I'm not a big proponent of letting Spikes go for a mid round draft pick but I am comfortable as a fan of having Ellison start at OLB. I surely understand another POV that he isn't all that great yet and we need better.

[Midwest]

If Poz is such a reach at 12, how is that teams at 14, 15 and 17 are strongly considering him.

 

I havent seen him enough to know either way whether I think he will be good or not in the pros. But if the Bills take him at 12 obviously their scouts think he can be a monster in the league. They arent going to take him just because he's a character guy or may remind some people of Shane Conlan (who would have sucked, BTW, in the defense the Bills play now).

 

I'm not saying that Carolina, Pittsburgh, or Jacksonville will take him. I am just saying that the groundwork for the rationale is in place because he's a possibility for these respective teams For example, I personally think that Carolina would take Greg Olsen or Reggie Nelson before Posluszny, but his name is out there nonetheless as a conceivability.

[BillsVet]

I know what you mean, and agree to some point. But the scheme the Bills employ is unique (at least from the LB position for 25 or so other teams). Certain guys can excel in this defense and yet would get killed in other defenses. One of the reasons Ellison wasn't drafted higher was because of those size concerns, of those 25 teams that don't play the cover 2 he's too small. But he really doesn't have any size concerns in our defense. I think he was only decent in actual play and production last year but was put in a terrible position and played relatively pretty great. I'm interested to see what he can do. I'm not a big proponent of letting Spikes go for a mid round draft pick but I am comfortable as a fan of having Ellison start at OLB. I surely understand another POV that he isn't all that great yet and we need better.

 

 

It's a gamble that he'll be able to jump in and play at a relatively good level. I think the Cover 2 is a little more popular than 6-7 teams in the league. He was baptized by fire, I'll say that, but I'm concerned that we're demanding attacking LB's but we don't have the DT's to allow it. And Ellison will be at the point of this at WLB from time to time.

[jri111]

The Cover 2 lives and dies with the middle of the D and both Willis and Poz are slated to play inside in the NFL. The Bills would be targeting MLB regardless of the Spikes decision, so why conceal any interest in shopping him.

 

Not true. Puz projects more so as an outside LB in the NFL. That's the position he played as a junior in the 2005 seasons when he won nearly every defensive award in the country (Including beating out A.J. Hawk for the Butkist for the best LB in the country). He then had that knee injury in the Orange Bowl at the end of the 2005 season and decided to not go into the draft as he was thinking about doing. At that time he was projected as a high first round pick, right up there with Hawk. In 2006 he came back, but becuase of team needs they moved him to MLB

 

(note: Penn state plays the college equivilent to cover 2 - it's a zone intenstive defense. With the proper personel as in 2005 they play a base 4-3. however last year they played a lot more 3-4, but still played in the zone. Puz moved to the inside regardless of whether they wre aligning in the 3-4 or 4-3).

 

Anyways, in 2006 he had a good season, but not a spectaular one. Some people think its his knee. Others (the vast majority) think that it was because he had to learn a new position, MLB - he was good at it, but not as instintive or comfortable as he was in 2005 playing OLB. Yet others say that he was a half-step slower because he wore a large brace on his knee for the first half of the season to ensure that it would hold up which ultimatley limited his mobility.

 

I believe it was a combination of the brace and new position. Puz is a natural OLB. He's the most comfortable there. Don't get me wrong, he can play MLB with the best of them and be a good one, but he has the potential to be a GREAT player on the outside.

 

All-in-all, if the Bills draft him it will ideally be to play OLB, not the middle. One of the great things about him is his versitility (alla crowell) and if they needed him to play middle he could. But since the MLB calls the plays and needs to know the defense in-side and out, it makes much more sense to move crowell there (which he played as a back-up until this past year) and let Puz learn to play the outside without having to worry about the rest of the stuff an ILB has to worry about.

 

 

Personally i love the guy and would not be upset if we got him at 12. I posted about this awhile ago but it largely went ignored. I def think its a possibility (especially if Spikes leaves and Willis is gone when we pick at 12).

 

I think if we get him it will be one of two ways:

 

1. take him at 12 regardless if people consider it a reach (if you look at mock drafts he's projected to go as high as st. louis at 13, so is that really a reach?)

or

2. if he's still there past 20 (NYGiants) attemp to trade back in the first and taking him.

 

(I don't see them risk losing him if Willis is gone by tradeing down. If that's the sitaution, Petterson and Lynch will sure to be gone by the time they Bills 1st pick came up, meaning if Puz is gone, they could be in real trouble and not get an impact player in one of their two neediest positions: RB or LB. Timmons is a possibility too though)

[turftoe]

I'm going to be attending the draft this year. I have to say, If the Bills take Poz (note Poz reads better than Pos )at #12 I might just lose it and run up to the commish and plead with him to skip over our selection while we reconsider. I'm not saying Poz stinks, he's just not the reincarnation of Shane Conlan, nor is he another Brian Urlacher, nor is he another A. J. Hawk. Levy said he wanted "attacking " linebackers and I'm not so sure that describes Poz. I realize I base this reaction on judgements made by various draft analysts that mostly rate Poz as a mid to late first round pick. I do, however feel pretty good about our scouting department. If the scouts, Modrak, Levy, Jauron, and Fewell all come to a concensis that he is the best guy for our D and if they are absolutely convinced that he wouldn't be there if we traded down, then I would apologize to the commissioner as I'm dragged past the taunting Jets fans on the way to jail.

[jri111]

btw another real option in the later round (end of round three, beginning of round 4) is Puz's teammate Tim Shaw. He was overshadowed at Linebacker U by Puz and Dan Connor, but actually is pretty darn impressive. I don't have time to look up the numbers but if you go and look at his combine numbers they were better then Puz and Willis in a lot of categories. He's quick and strong.

 

The debate keeps surfacing of whether we now need 2 Lb's or 1. The answer is 2, but not two starters. Like it or not, IF spikes leaves Ellison is going to be a day one starter (barring some really weird draft senarios or an unlikely move from left field, like trading for Lance Briggs). That leaves one starter we need. But even if we get a starter in Round 1, we're still drastically shallow in depth. I wouldn't be surprised at all if we took two LB's in the frist 4 rounds. One as an immediate starter and the other as a developmental guy who fits the system.

 

I think if Willis is there at 12 we take him. But don't be surprise if we take someone like Tim Shaw at the end or round three or early in round 4 too. I think Shaw would be an excellent addition to our Defense and someone which would offer great value at the pick. Who knows, Puz and Shaw reunited? unlikley, but not impossible.

[Flbillsfan#1]

In Marv we trust. If Marv wants Pos @ 12 I have no problem with it.

[Lurker]

he has the potential to be a GREAT player on the outside.

 

His speed is only 'adequate' for the outside. Translating his game to the NFL, where even the linemen run sub-5.0s, is not going to be as easy as many think. IMO, he'd be better suited to play inside if he can add a few more pounds.

[jri111]

His speed is only 'adequate' for the outside. Translating his game to the NFL, where even the linemen run sub-5.0s, is not going to be as easy as many think. IMO, he'd be better suited to play inside if he can add a few more pounds.

 

 

You're right his 40 speed isn't great, but what makes him so good are his instincts. It's the same old discussion everyone has about every other position. How good can one run track and how good of a football player is he. What makes PUz so good is not his average speed, but his above average instincts. He "attacks" quick. Isn't that exactly what Marv was looking for, an 'attacking' Linebacker? I agree he could be good in the middle, but if you move him there i think you risk taking away his best attributes (his instincts). If you've watched him play the last two years, it's beyond clear that he's more comforatable on the outside and when you're comfortable at what you do, you do your best.

 

 

Also, look at his three cone and other times. They're near the top. Another indication that he's quicker then faster.

[Lurker]

If you've watched him play the last two years, it's beyond clear that he's more comforatable on the outside and when you're comfortable at what you do, you do your best.

Being comfortable in college is one thing. Being fast enough, despite good instincts, to cover NFL RBs in the flat or come off the edge on the blitz is another. Instincts are critical, no question, and he has good ones. But with the speed of the NFL game getting more amazing every year, I don't think he has enough to be a marque OLB. Inside the box, where he could be protected by his DL, would be a better fit I think. And not with the 12th pick either.

[ndirish1978]

Screw that, I'd be fine taking Pos with 12