Dual RB way to go Posted February 26, 2007 Share Posted February 26, 2007 Everyone keeps talking that the OL improved on the bills after the bye week changes. Did it ? I broke the season evenly at each 8 game interval for Losman. QB Losman 1st half-----Sacks -----TD-----Att-----YDS-----YAvg ---------------26 --------7------210-----1400-----6.7 2st half-----Sacks -----TD-----Att-----YDS-----YAvg ---------------21 --------12-----220----1637-----7.4 Losman seemed to reflect in his stats that the OL improved. Not just slightly either! The 6.7 Yavg was good enough for 18th in the league (final league stats) where as the 7.4 jumped Losman & the bills to 7th overall in the league. Reduced sacks, more TD's, and greater Yavg indicates the OL was a piece of an improving puzzle; toughest league schedule to boot! I broke the season into 7 game intervals for MCGahee using the broken ribs as a convienent midway. RB McGahee 1st half-----YPR -----TD-----Fumb-----Plays >= 15 Yards --------------3.8 ------1--------1----------------5----------- 2st half-----YPR -----TD-----Fumb-----Plays >= 15 Yards --------------3.6 ------5--------3----------------2----------- Some may use his broken ribs as a reason for decline in YPR avg. McGahee lit up the jets before the cracked ribs and after. The totals against the jets were 42 carries, 275 yards, and a fat 6.6 rushing average. Minus those two games, McGahee ends up with a paltry 3.3 rushing average against the rest of the league. Note that the A-train averaged 3.5 yards; just -.3 less then willis for the season. I was dreaming like the many others of getting a draft pick higher than 3rd for Willis. Yes he's cap friendly, in a contract year, and has the OL and QB to use as a possible scapegoat, but I can only see the Giants willing to pay the highest price for him. LIke I said, Coach Tom of the giants isn't going to sell the superbowl contender Dream to the NY Media with a rookie or inexperienced RB. What are they willing to pay? If the bills get a 3rd round pick, it just isn't going to make the team better. Willis will play to pad his stats for the next contract, so him sitting out ain't gonna happen. If bills get a 3rd round pick at the best, it's gonna be a really tough calls for Marv and the Bills. What do you do with a 3rd rounder and 1 less starting RB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill from NYC Posted February 26, 2007 Share Posted February 26, 2007 The Losman stats can be explained in a few different ways imo.... 1) He gained more overall experience. 2) Fairchild, in his wisdom, made him stay in the pocket as opposed to running for his life. I think that this was one of the better moves I have ever seen by any coach. JP, coming from Tulane, already knew how to run and avoid getting killed. Keeping a short leash on him forced him into learning how to be an NFL QB. I cannot praise this move enough. 3) Peters was moved to LT, and actually protected his blind side. He was an immediate improvement over Gandy, and he just got better with experience. I expect him to be a very good, perhaps even great LT. Put Steinbach next to him and watch the sack total continue to decrease, the rushing yardage increase, and the Bills make the playoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrDawkinstein Posted February 26, 2007 Share Posted February 26, 2007 2) Fairchild, in his wisdom, made him stay in the pocket as opposed to running for his life. I think that this was one of the better moves I have ever seen by any coach. JP, coming from Tulane, already knew how to run and avoid getting killed. Keeping a short leash on him forced him into learning how to be an NFL QB. I cannot praise this move enough. he also stopped calling so many 7-step drop plays and leaving him hanging out there and started calling more 3,5-step drops a very smart move by our OC as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beerball Posted February 26, 2007 Share Posted February 26, 2007 Everyone keeps talking that the OL improved on the bills after the bye week changes. Did it ? I broke the season evenly at each 8 game interval for Losman. QB Losman 1st half-----Sacks -----TD-----Att-----YDS-----YAvg ---------------26 --------7------210-----1400-----6.7 2st half-----Sacks -----TD-----Att-----YDS-----YAvg ---------------21 --------12-----220----1637-----7.4 Losman seemed to reflect in his stats that the OL improved. Not just slightly either! The 6.7 Yavg was good enough for 18th in the league (final league stats) where as the 7.4 jumped Losman & the bills to 7th overall in the league. Reduced sacks, more TD's, and greater Yavg indicates the OL was a piece of an improving puzzle; toughest league schedule to boot! I broke the season into 7 game intervals for MCGahee using the broken ribs as a convienent midway. RB McGahee 1st half-----YPR -----TD-----Fumb-----Plays >= 15 Yards --------------3.8 ------1--------1----------------5----------- 2st half-----YPR -----TD-----Fumb-----Plays >= 15 Yards --------------3.6 ------5--------3----------------2----------- Some may use his broken ribs as a reason for decline in YPR avg. McGahee lit up the jets before the cracked ribs and after. The totals against the jets were 42 carries, 275 yards, and a fat 6.6 rushing average. Minus those two games, McGahee ends up with a paltry 3.3 rushing average against the rest of the league. Note that the A-train averaged 3.5 yards; just -.3 less then willis for the season. I was dreaming like the many others of getting a draft pick higher than 3rd for Willis. Yes he's cap friendly, in a contract year, and has the OL and QB to use as a possible scapegoat, but I can only see the Giants willing to pay the highest price for him. LIke I said, Coach Tom of the giants isn't going to sell the superbowl contender Dream to the NY Media with a rookie or inexperienced RB. What are they willing to pay? If the bills get a 3rd round pick, it just isn't going to make the team better. Willis will play to pad his stats for the next contract, so him sitting out ain't gonna happen. If bills get a 3rd round pick at the best, it's gonna be a really tough calls for Marv and the Bills. What do you do with a 3rd rounder and 1 less starting RB? I think that a couple things contributed to the second half for Willis. 1. We became almost exclusively a run left team. You and I figured that out pretty quickly, so I guess DCs weren't far behind us. While the O-line change may have been good for pass protection the right side wasn't able to do much in the way of run blocking. 2. Willis got dinged up a bit. I think his overall performance last year was OK. Just short of 1000 yards in 14 games, better job picking up the blitz as the year went on (could there be something to the Willis don't do playbooks theory?). JP had a better than I expected 2006. He was glued to the pocket and that hurt him some. One thing I want to see him improve on...short passes...gotta hit the receiver in stride, not make him jump or stop or dive or reach behind etc. Too many times drives were killed because of poorly thrown short passes. Bout got some people killed out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lori Posted February 26, 2007 Share Posted February 26, 2007 One small quibble: sacks actually stayed fairly steady on slightly fewer passing attempts (28.1 att/game before the bye, 25.8 after), averaging three/game throughout the season (including three in each of the final five games). Differences? Once the Bills got past the initial learning curve with their revamped OL (nine sacks in the first two games and zero point nothin' time to throw), more of the post-bye sacks could be attributed to JP holding the ball and trying to make a play, as opposed to a flat-out whiff by a blocker. He also started getting enough time to complete the deep throws to Evans - after heading into the bye with a longest reception of a mere 27 yards, Lee had a catch of 30+ yards in six of nine post-bye games, including all three of his long (70+ yard) touchdowns. That will crank up those yds/att averages in a hurry... Also good to see that his completion percentage actually went UP after Fairchild allowed him to start moving a little more. Agree that the short-game touch still needs some work, but the potential is definitely there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuckincincy Posted February 26, 2007 Share Posted February 26, 2007 The club went 5 -3 in their last 8 games. Whatever the stats were. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lori Posted February 26, 2007 Share Posted February 26, 2007 The club went 4-4 in their last 8 games. Whatever the stats were. Fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dual RB way to go Posted February 26, 2007 Author Share Posted February 26, 2007 I'm not prepared to cut McGahee any slack! With Losman's improved throwing ability, that should of opened up more holes for any average back. The 5 TD's versus 1 also stated the ability of the OL to get McGahee the extra time to spring open for the 4 rushing TD's in the red zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MartyBall4Buffalo Posted February 26, 2007 Share Posted February 26, 2007 RB McGahee 1st half-----YPR -----TD-----Fumb-----Plays >= 15 Yards --------------3.8 ------1--------1----------------5----------- 2st half-----YPR -----TD-----Fumb-----Plays >= 15 Yards --------------3.6 ------5--------3----------------2----------- I like to know what formula you used because according to this http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/6359/splits Rushing Receiving Fumbles Situation G Rush Yds Y/G Avg TD Rec Yds Y/G Avg Lng YAC 1stD TD Fum FumL Games 1-8 8 154 579 72.4 3.8 1 14 127 15.9 9.1 56 11.7 3 0 1 0 Games 9-16 6 105 411 68.5 3.9 5 4 29 4.8 7.3 19 12.3 1 0 3 2 Not necessarily disputing your stats and I appreciate the breakdown just curious how you came up with what you did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dual RB way to go Posted February 26, 2007 Author Share Posted February 26, 2007 RB McGahee1st half-----YPR -----TD-----Fumb-----Plays >= 15 Yards --------------3.8 ------1--------1----------------5----------- 2st half-----YPR -----TD-----Fumb-----Plays >= 15 Yards --------------3.6 ------5--------3----------------2----------- I like to know what formula you used because according to this http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/6359/splits Rushing Receiving Fumbles Situation G Rush Yds Y/G Avg TD Rec Yds Y/G Avg Lng YAC 1stD TD Fum FumL Games 1-8 8 154 579 72.4 3.8 1 14 127 15.9 9.1 56 11.7 3 0 1 0 Games 9-16 6 105 411 68.5 3.9 5 4 29 4.8 7.3 19 12.3 1 0 3 2 Not necessarily disputing your stats and I appreciate the breakdown just curious how you came up with what you did. You are correct. McGahee YAVG in 2nd half was 3.9; still less than the 4.0 median average for the whole league. My mistake was using 115 carries instead of 105. What would of A-Train's average have been had he been allowed to start against the jets twice? Jets had an 4.6 average per carry against them. The only thing worse is that the Bill's had 4.7!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lori Posted February 26, 2007 Share Posted February 26, 2007 You are correct. McGahee YAVG in 2nd half was 3.9; still less than the 4.0 median average for the whole league. My mistake was using 115 carries instead of 105. What would of A-Train's average have been had he been allowed to start against the jets twice? Jets had an 4.6 average per carry against them. The only thing worse is that the Bill's had 4.7!!!! Considering that Thomas averaged 2.8 yards on the 15 carries he got in the second Jets game? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dual RB way to go Posted February 26, 2007 Author Share Posted February 26, 2007 Considering that Thomas averaged 2.8 yards on the 15 carries he got in the second Jets game? Let him start, not sub in while McGahee goes to the side for a blow after busting the defense for a few running plays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2020 Our Year For Sure Posted February 26, 2007 Share Posted February 26, 2007 One small quibble: sacks actually stayed fairly steady on slightly fewer passing attempts (28.1 att/game before the bye, 25.8 after), averaging three/game throughout the season (including three in each of the final five games). It certainly looks that way if you split the stats after the first 7 games. However, one can argue the offensive performance and play calling did not change until week 11, @HOU. Here's the numbers with the line drawn after week 10, @IND: first 9 games 30 sacks....3.3/game 224 attempts.....1 sack every 7.5 attempts averages to 53 sacks in 16 games last 7 games 17 sacks....2.4/game 205 attempts.....1 sack every 12 attempts averages to 39 sacks in 16 games These numbers show a drastic improvement in pass protection from week 11 on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lori Posted February 27, 2007 Share Posted February 27, 2007 It certainly looks that way if you split the stats after the first 7 games. However, one can argue the offensive performance and play calling did not change until week 11, @HOU. Here's the numbers with the line drawn after week 10, @IND: first 9 games 30 sacks....3.3/game 224 attempts.....1 sack every 7.5 attempts averages to 53 sacks in 16 games last 7 games 17 sacks....2.4/game 205 attempts.....1 sack every 12 attempts averages to 39 sacks in 16 games These numbers show a drastic improvement in pass protection from week 11 on. Point taken, although the average jumps back up to 3.0/game and 1 sack per 9.3 attempts in the last five games. Of course, a QB taking a sack doesn't necessarily have to mean the blockers were to blame, either. But if we're discussing the performance of the offensive line, why draw the dividing line anywhere other than the massive overhaul at midseason? Tell you what - instead of adding them in with the 'before' or 'after' numbers, let's treat those first two post-bye games as preseason, since that's essentially what they were for the reshuffled unit. (Yeah, I know we can't deduct them from the W-L record, but we're just messin' with stats here anyway...) Seven games before the bye vs. the final seven games. 1st 7: 122-197 for 1314 yds, 61.9%, 6.67 yds/att, 10.77 yds/completion, 6 TDs, 6 INT, 21 sacks - 173 yds, 78.9 rating. 1 sack every 9.4 attempts. GB/IND: 16-27 for 185 yds, 59.3%, 6.85 yds/att, 11.56 yds/completion, 1 TD, 0 INT, 9 sacks - 70 yards, 92.4 rating. 1 sack every 3 attempts. Ouch. Last 7: 130-205 for 1553 yds, 63.4%, 7.31 yds/att, 11.52 yds/completion, 12 TDs, 8 INT, 17 sacks - 89 yds, 88.6 rating. 1 sack every 12.1 attempts. Discarding the "run for your life, JP!" games in the middle, there isn't a huge difference in the number of sacks between the beginning and end of the season... but note the disparity in the sack yardage. Interesting. As I said in my earlier post, I think that shows the later sacks were more from JP scrambles, not as many flat-out whiffs by the OL - he apparently had time to get back toward the line of scrimmage on most of them, instead of getting blindsided 10 yards deep in the backfield on a regular basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oneonta Buffalo Fan Posted February 27, 2007 Share Posted February 27, 2007 What do you do with a 3rd rounder and 1 less starting RB? Get a RB in the 3rd round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orton's Arm Posted February 27, 2007 Share Posted February 27, 2007 If bills get a 3rd round pick at the best, it's gonna be a really tough calls for Marv and the Bills. What do you do with a 3rd rounder and 1 less starting RB? Unless the Bills extend McGahee (which I doubt), they'll face the problem of one less starting RB after the season's over anyway. Better to have a third round pick than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dual RB way to go Posted February 27, 2007 Author Share Posted February 27, 2007 ... but note the disparity in the sack yardage. Interesting. As I said in my earlier post, I think that shows the later sacks were more from JP scrambles, not as many flat-out whiffs by the OL - he apparently had time to get back toward the line of scrimmage on most of them, instead of getting blindsided 10 yards deep in the backfield on a regular basis. Makes sense but they have stats for everything (weather, night games, MNF games,.....) , why not have a stat when the QB throws the ball away and when the QB gets sacked after running out of the pocket? I would really like to see those stats on young QB's since they would indicate where the problem is on a particuliar play (QB or OL). Since we can all play with data to make our points stronger, I would still say that the 8 game split indicated less sacks, more TD's, and higher Pass average attempt; usually a sign of all 3 traits from a better OL. Those positives don't side with any RB improvement tho. That was my main concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACTOBILLSFAN Posted February 27, 2007 Share Posted February 27, 2007 Since I posted this exact same thing about a month ago let me just tell you what the apologists will respond with: 1: The o-line obviously only improved in pass protection 2: The play calling hurt Willis' stats Bottom line IMHO: Willis is a bum. He has had every excuse in the world made for him but the fact remains he's unproductive against every team except the Jests. Its not like shipping Willis out of town is going to break this offense. He isn't a great pass blocker, he doesn't catch many passes out of the backfield, he's useless in short yardage situations, but yeah he's integral to the success of our offense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MartyBall4Buffalo Posted February 27, 2007 Share Posted February 27, 2007 yeah he's integral to the success of our offense. Our offense has success... since when? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dual RB way to go Posted March 1, 2007 Author Share Posted March 1, 2007 I was dreaming like the many others of getting a draft pick higher than 3rd for Willis. Yes he's cap friendly, in a contract year, and has the OL and QB to use as a possible scapegoat, but I can only see the Giants willing to pay the highest price for him. Thanks McGahee!!! This should help the Bills drive up your stock in trading you!! I knew I could rely on you to share the BLAME like a good teamate you are!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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