BuffOrange Posted April 9, 2006 Share Posted April 9, 2006 Wait, Leftwich is as good as Brees? I know Brees has had a better supporting cast but yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nanker Posted April 9, 2006 Share Posted April 9, 2006 I love a good Crusade as much as the next Waller, but give it a fuccing rest. Will ya? Like we're going to ride the noodle arm of Kelly Holcomb to anything more than the toilet bowl. Good grief! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orton's Arm Posted April 9, 2006 Author Share Posted April 9, 2006 There's a leveling of talent in the NFL and a continuity of play calling schemes that makes PAR a more reliable stat. 656963[/snapback] Agreed. He's using various college stats--such as games started, etc.--to try to predict NFL PAR. Lewin's system doesn't involve college PAR, except insofar as it may help him predict NFL PAR. But the main factors he's looking at to predict NFL PAR are the number of games started in college, and adjusted completion percentage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orton's Arm Posted April 9, 2006 Author Share Posted April 9, 2006 phew, better draft that QB at #8. I mean we don't want a Dilfer or Collins, One who has led his team to a SB and another theat won one.656930[/snapback] Interesting that you bring up Dilfer. The Ravens team that won the Super Bowl had two things: a mediocre QB/offense, and an elite defense. Of those two halves of the winning equation, the Bills have done a great job with the first half, less so with the other half. Back in 2000, the Ravens went five straight games without an offensive touchdown. But their defense was so good they actually won two of those games. Some would ask why the Bills can't build the same kind of defense the Ravens had back in 2000. Fair enough. They'd need to upgrade both DT spots though. As well as both DE spots. London Fletcher is good, but not Ray Lewis in his prime good. So the MLB spot needs to be upgraded, as does Jeff Posey's spot. Clements and McGee are good CBs, but not as good as the CBs the Ravens had in 2000. Add two more positions to the upgrade list. Of course, the Bills need upgrades at safety as well. Assuming Takeo can fully recover from his injury, the Bills are just ten starters away from having the same defense the Ravens had back in 2000! Add in an offensive line capable of producing a 2000 yard rusher, and you've got the Ravens team that won the Super Bowl. As you can imagine, a Ravens-level of defensive dominance is difficult to achieve, and difficult to sustain. Despite the ridiculously good level of talent the Ravens of 2000 had, that core group of players only went to the Super Bowl once. But teams with good QBs--the Steelers of the '70s, '49ers of the '80s, Broncos of the '80s and '90s, Bills of the early '90s, and the Cowboys of the '90s--were able to go multiple times. While it's possible to win the Super Bowl without a good QB, you give yourself a much better chance by having one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadBuffaloDisease Posted April 9, 2006 Share Posted April 9, 2006 I'd like to see this PAR/g applied for EVERY 1st and 2nd round QB for the last 5-6 years or so, so as to give a large enough (>30) sampling. And since they've applied it to Shuler, who was drafted in 1994 (and which would give well over 30 data points), they should be able to provide it. THEN we can say for sure whether this formula works or not. Just cherry-picking some successful predictions over the past 12 years doesn't work for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apuszczalowski Posted April 9, 2006 Share Posted April 9, 2006 It wouldn't be as hard as you say to build a dominating Defence, we did have one 2 years ago, and most of the players are still here. We may have to upgrade a few spots and a coaching upgrade (which we now have) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Offside Number 76 Posted April 9, 2006 Share Posted April 9, 2006 A hundred years ago, people rode horses and read by candlelight. You get progress by people trying new things, and seeing which ones work. This guy's developed a system. Maybe it's a contribution to the world of player evaluation, and maybe it isn't. We'll know more in a few years, after the system's been given a chance to prove its worth. I don't understand your hostility toward a guy who's simply trying to do his part to make football evaluation better. 656876[/snapback] This guy is no Edison, Tesla, Duryea, or Ford. He's a Niagara Gazette writer citing an 18-yr-old QB at a school no one outside of Saint Paul ever has heard of. I wouldn't count on him for the great leap forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orton's Arm Posted April 9, 2006 Author Share Posted April 9, 2006 I'd like to see this PAR/g applied for EVERY 1st and 2nd round QB for the last 5-6 years or so, so as to give a large enough (>30) sampling. And since they've applied it to Shuler, who was drafted in 1994 (and which would give well over 30 data points), they should be able to provide it. THEN we can say for sure whether this formula works or not. Just cherry-picking some successful predictions over the past 12 years doesn't work for me. 657051[/snapback] I too would like to learn more about this system. Odds are that it "predicted" past success more often than not, just because of the way regression analysis works. It's basically a case of hindsight being 20/20. But while he's probably done a good job at isolating the factors which were correlated with past success, it remains to be seen whether these factors will predict future success also. If Rivers succeeds and Losman becomes a journeyman, it will be evidence in the system's favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orton's Arm Posted April 9, 2006 Author Share Posted April 9, 2006 It wouldn't be as hard as you say to build a dominating Defence, we did have one 2 years ago, and most of the players are still here. We may have to upgrade a few spots and a coaching upgrade (which we now have) 657053[/snapback] We had a good defense two years ago, not an elite defense. If you want to get away with not having a QB/passing game, a good defense isn't good enough. Just ask last year's Miami team--good defense, good running game, no QB, no playoffs. The Ravens were able to get away with not having a QB because their defense was insanely good. And yes, it would be as hard as I said to replicate that. The Ravens of 2000 went five straight games without an offensive TD. They actually won two of those games on the strength of their defense. They set an NFL record for fewest points allowed in a 16 game season. There was no room for average players on a defense like this, except maybe as backups. You look at any elite defense--Ravens of 2000, '85 Bears, the Steel Curtain--and very seldom do you see merely average players as starters. Typically you have to be at or near a Pro Bowl level to be in the starting lineup. If you want to be one of the stars of an elite defense, you need to be knocking on the door to the Hall of Fame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramius Posted April 9, 2006 Share Posted April 9, 2006 http://www.niagara-gazette.com/sports/loca..._097220726.htmlIn other words, after four more years of painfully watching Losman develop, we'll have ourselves Trent Dilfer. Assuming, of course, that Losman manages to do a better job of avoiding injuries than he's done so far. I wonder how Nall stacks up in this guy's system. 656860[/snapback] I knew, i just knew, that as soon as you read this article, you'd bust out the kleenex and vaseline, knock one out, and then begin posting. There are serious flaws with this little douche's supposed "system" that others have mentioned. Sure he points out a few successes, but what about all the others. Why doesnt he talk about eli manning, alex smith or aaron rogers? Where are tim couch, cade mcknown, michael vick, david carr? And i'd hardly call culpepper a superstar. Oh, i bet his system fails for them, so he convienently left them out. Also, his system is interesting in that it predicts that all 3 QB's this year, cutler, leinhart and young will all be successfull in the NFL. common knowledge says, and i'd be willing to bet that at least 1 of them will flop in the NFL, if not 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dean Posted April 9, 2006 Share Posted April 9, 2006 http://www.niagara-gazette.com/sports/loca..._097220726.htmlIn other words, after four more years of painfully watching Losman develop, we'll have ourselves Trent Dilfer. Assuming, of course, that Losman manages to do a better job of avoiding injuries than he's done so far. I wonder how Nall stacks up in this guy's system. 656860[/snapback] Well, you've hit rock-bottom, Arm. You've sourced one of the (if not THE) worst daily newspapers in the USA to find an article so good, it "deserves its own thread". The article, like most of the ant-JP posts on your obvious CRUSADE, is worthless and not worty of thread or furrther commentary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimBob2232 Posted April 9, 2006 Share Posted April 9, 2006 This is so worthless. I am POSITIVE the same analysis on ryan leaf would project similarly to leinert. Likewise I am POSITIVE the same analysis on tom brady would project to be the next brock huard. You cant believe this nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nanker Posted April 9, 2006 Share Posted April 9, 2006 I knew, i just knew, that as soon as you read this article, you'd bust out the kleenex and vaseline, knock one out, and then begin posting. There are serious flaws with this little douche's supposed "system" that others have mentioned. Sure he points out a few successes, but what about all the others. Why doesnt he talk about eli manning, alex smith or aaron rogers? Where are tim couch, cade mcknown, michael vick, david carr? And i'd hardly call culpepper a superstar. Oh, i bet his system fails for them, so he convienently left them out. Also, his system is interesting in that it predicts that all 3 QB's this year, cutler, leinhart and young will all be successfull in the NFL. common knowledge says, and i'd be willing to bet that at least 1 of them will flop in the NFL, if not 2. 657105[/snapback] Deep breath The "author" of the article in The Slowly I Turned Gazette, Jonah Bronstein can be found here on question line 80 pleading with the college freshman to give him the skinny on Losman. What he didn't predict, but you did so well was Holcomb's Ass's psychotic reaction to the story. Props to you Ramius! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orton's Arm Posted April 10, 2006 Author Share Posted April 10, 2006 The "author" of the article in The Slowly I Turned Gazette, Jonah Bronstein can be found here on question line 80 pleading with the college freshman to give him the skinny on Losman. What he didn't predict, but you did so well was Holcomb's Ass's psychotic reaction to the story. 657146[/snapback] You read through 80 Q&A's to find this tidbit? You must really be desperate to make a case against me. I don't see how the quote helps you though. Bronstein is a reporter, and it's part of his job to ask people questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orton's Arm Posted April 10, 2006 Author Share Posted April 10, 2006 The article, like most of the ant-JP posts on your obvious CRUSADE, is worthless and not worty of thread or furrther commentary. 657140[/snapback] You freely hand out insults to those who don't see the same potential in Losman you see. Just today, I noticed you announce that some sports writer would make a lousy GM, solely because he wanted the Bills to take a QB. This need to insult those who see Losman differently than you shows there can't really be intelligent discussion with you about this particular topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orton's Arm Posted April 10, 2006 Author Share Posted April 10, 2006 I knew, i just knew, that as soon as you read this article, you'd bust out the kleenex and vaseline, knock one out, and then begin posting. 657105[/snapback] Well, I don't know about the kleenex, vaseline, or knocking one out, but I sure would hate to disappoint you when it came to the posting part! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jarthur31 Posted April 10, 2006 Share Posted April 10, 2006 http://www.niagara-gazette.com/sports/loca..._097220726.htmlIn other words, after four more years of painfully watching Losman develop, we'll have ourselves Trent Dilfer. Assuming, of course, that Losman manages to do a better job of avoiding injuries than he's done so far. I wonder how Nall stacks up in this guy's system. 656860[/snapback] Like they said about Kurt Warner and Marsha in NE (6th round pick), huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sisyphean Bills Posted April 10, 2006 Share Posted April 10, 2006 I just want the Bills to take 1st round reaches for QBs for eternity. Especially QBs that are draft hyped and produced absolutely DickJauron in terms of winning on any NCAA field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orton's Arm Posted April 10, 2006 Author Share Posted April 10, 2006 I just want the Bills to take 1st round reaches for QBs for eternity. Especially QBs that are draft hyped and produced absolutely DickJauron in terms of winning on any NCAA field. 657533[/snapback] They're off to a good start with Losman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatPatPatSack Posted April 11, 2006 Share Posted April 11, 2006 Agreed. He's using various college stats--such as games started, etc.--to try to predict NFL PAR. Lewin's system doesn't involve college PAR, except insofar as it may help him predict NFL PAR. But the main factors he's looking at to predict NFL PAR are the number of games started in college, and adjusted completion percentage. 657033[/snapback] While this "system" may not predict any one players future career performance, over the long haul, if it accurately models player behavior, then it will probably out perform pure scouting alone. I am sure past performance is a very statistically reliable indicator of future performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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