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F***ING FLORIDA! Jeanne - Making a turn?


stevestojan

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Arrrrrrrrrrrrggggh! Enough with these hurricanes! I hadn't been paying attention to Jeanne at all, but just looking at the link from Steve and I am now hoping that my flight outta Florida isn't going to be cancelled on Thursday. <_<

 

Stay safe Floridians. Again.

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Ok, all week, Jeanne was projected to turn RIGHT (east) and up to N. Carolina or higher.

 

Now that Ivan has passed, and brought a large low-pressure system, Jeanne is being pulled farther west (Hurricanes are pushed down by high pressure and towards low pressure).. anyway, the bad news for me, again:

 

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/adcbin/hu...e=move&partner=

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NHC says otherwise. They say their forecast track has shifted west, but not THAT far west. They expect landfall around the SC-GA border now. Don't know where the map you linked to came from...but it ain't the National Hurricane Center.

 

It also looks like that track might be too far west; with the remnants of Ivan over the central Appalachains, Jeanne should be pulled even farther north and east by that low. That seems to be what the NHC weather geeks WOULD predict...if they had the guts to disagree with their computers.

 

I'm still standing by my original prediction: it's going to hit the Carolina's as a weak Category 1 storm. So far, I'm 1 for 2 this season (REALLY missed on Frances, called Ivan's track almost perfectly).

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NHC says otherwise.  They say their forecast track has shifted west, but not THAT far west.  They expect landfall around the SC-GA border now.  Don't know where the map you linked to came from...but it ain't the National Hurricane Center. 

 

It also looks like that track might be too far west; with the remnants of Ivan over the central Appalachains, Jeanne should be pulled even farther north and east by that low.  That seems to be what the NHC weather geeks WOULD predict...if they had the guts to disagree with their computers.

 

I'm still standing by my original prediction: it's going to hit the Carolina's as a weak Category 1 storm.  So far, I'm 1 for 2 this season (REALLY missed on Frances, called Ivan's track almost perfectly).

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Well I'm glad Ivan took your advice. For my sake anyway. Still cant get through to my sister in GA. Just north of Tally.

 

Your Ivan was a good call, jeanne is an easier one to predict.

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Well I'm glad Ivan took your advice. For my sake anyway. Still cant get through to my sister in GA. Just north of Tally.

 

Your Ivan was a good call, jeanne is an easier one to predict.

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Ivan was a B word of a storm. For about four days, the NHC itself all but gave up predicting it...they just kept moving their last halfway decent model farther west as the storm moved farther west, and stopped forecasting intensity completely (literally...their wind speed probability charts had huge 48-hour blank spaces in them every day for five days.) By the time it hit the Caribbean, Ivan was so far outside the historical record (only Camille, Gilbert, and the 1935 Everglades storm were stronger) the models had no basis for comparison.

 

Really, NHC's having a rough year. Lots of "Well, that's interesting!" moments. Charley strengthens unexpectedly just before landfall, Frances takes an unexpected left turn ("There's a high pressure ridge north of it? Well, that's interesting..."), Ivan strengthens practically off the charts. And now...with Ivan's and Jeanne's paths being what they are, there's a slight (2%...maybe 5% at most) chance the two will actually merge over the mid-Atlantic states. That'll be a hoot...

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Ivan was a B word of a storm.  For about four days, the NHC itself all but gave up predicting it...they just kept moving their last halfway decent model farther west as the storm moved farther west, and stopped forecasting intensity completely (literally...their wind speed probability charts had huge 48-hour blank spaces in them every day for five days.)  By the time it hit the Caribbean, Ivan was so far outside the historical record (only Camille, Gilbert, and the 1935 Everglades storm were stronger) the models had no basis for comparison.

 

Really, NHC's having a rough year.  Lots of "Well, that's interesting!" moments.  Charley strengthens unexpectedly just before landfall, Frances takes an unexpected left turn ("There's a high pressure ridge north of it?  Well, that's interesting..."), Ivan strengthens practically off the charts.  And now...with Ivan's and Jeanne's paths being what they are, there's a slight (2%...maybe 5% at most) chance the two will actually merge over the mid-Atlantic states.  That'll be a hoot...

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I dred the fact that we still have till the end of Nov before Hurricane season is over. Following it from afar is, well, not the same Tom. <_<

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Do Amish have cowbell? :ph34r:

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They have more than that I`m told..they have a hole in one of the horse stall`s and they`ll give you three hundred buck`s for sticking little willy through and givin it to one of there so-called Women..too much inbreeding has caused too many defect`s...YUCK...oh this is true..so some you boy`s out of work come-on down ...and getter done...Oh yeah don`t forget the BARF-BAG

<_<

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Following it from afar is, well, not the same Tom.  <_<

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And seeing the plane hit the Pentagon live was, well, not the same as seeing 9/11 unfold on TV. :ph34r:

 

Just making the point that I know my half-assed map-reading storm prognostication isn't the same as having your roof torn off over your head...because I've been there myself in the general sense. I know my dispassionate analysis (or amazed analysis) is a luxury...

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And seeing the plane hit the Pentagon live was, well, not the same as seeing 9/11 unfold on TV.  :P

 

Just making the point that I know my half-assed map-reading storm prognostication isn't the same as having your roof torn off over your head...because I've been there myself in the general sense.  I know my dispassionate analysis (or amazed analysis) is a luxury...

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Point taken Dexter, Now you've made my head hurt. Take your hands off the Academy Award, you have'nt embellished enough to win it. I'll agree your prognosstajaksonss( you love it when I spell so good <_< ) are pretty damn good.

Send money!!! :ph34r:

 

 

Address to follow :(

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I keep tellin you Steve.  You should move to Dallas.  Women outnumber the men about 4 to 1 and they're HOT.

No hurricanes here, just an occasional tornado warning and the Dallas Cowboy cheerleaders.

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That all sounds great until you get to the "it's located in the state of Texas" part...which, with the possible exception of Mississippi, is the worst place in the US I've ever been. Unfortunately my mom lives in Dallas so I'm forced to go there at least once a year. =/

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Come to Connecticut Jeanne!  Spare Florida- come visit lovely Essex Connecticut please.  Dont kitty out, weaken and become a tropical storm if you bother showing up.  I want the real deal! :lol:

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:ph34r::P:(

ROFLMAO! I love it when us northerners start taunting the hurricanes. I was so upset that Frances didn't give us anything in NY. Maybe Jeanne will spare the South and smash into NYC or something. <_<

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clip clop clip clip clop bang clip clop clip clop

 

amish drive by  :o

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:D:D:lol::w00t::lol: That is too funny, dev, you just aren't right.

 

Anyway, from the map that stevestojan linked to, it looks like Jeanne is heading right for Orlando. We seem to be right in the mix all season so far so what's another one. This one looks rather lame though so I'm not too worried. I didn't lose power through Frances and that B word lasted a couple days and was a bit stronger than this one. I wish it would just turn out to the mid-Atlantic though, maybe towards Bermuda, they haven't had one in forever, they're due. Good luck to everyone in FL though, I just hope it waits till at least Monday to hit so I can watch the Bills game Sunday, lol.

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