Will our first pick be a need pick or BPA

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

I must admit that I am a need pick kind of guy which fits my general approach that the future is now.

 

However, real world incidents from TD have beaten it into my silly little head that though I want the Bills to win and win now, that it really is a different drummer that drives TD's decisions and that he really is motivated by a bais on his part to pick the best player available to him on the board at the time, even if this selection might seem (initially at least since I am prone to take a second look and then understand when TD does something that strikes me as weird) odd.

 

This is not to say that TD ignores need at all, as clearly his sense of the best player available was heavily influenced by the Bills needs, but even when this was the case he seems to show some heav analysis and action to get this player with the latest draft pick possible and use this opportunity to trade down for additional picks and to sign the player at a lower slot. For example:

 

2001- Need pick by TD of Clements, but he was able to trade down and get additional picks which were sorely needed by us in a rebuilding year and still get Clements who was the first CB picked at a lower slot than if we had been a slave to need and taken him when out pick rolled around.

 

2002- MW was also a need pick as folks are still complaining we never invest at OL despite us spending a #4 on MW. However, the selection of Reed with our second pick wasa clear case of us taking the best player available when waits went up from the masses that this choice was idiotic because given Moulds/Price we clearly had no immediate WR need.

 

Yet, TD's farsightedness was proven correct by:

 

1. He was able to translate the Reed pick and a very good first year performance by Reed at #3 WR into allowing him to tag and trade PP for a pick who eventually became WM.

2. He was able to satisfy our need for a DL player by trading up to steal Denny (from Pitts who was on the phone with him which I'm sure was much to TD's glee).

 

In the end, unless the to me unlikely event of a Reed recovery happens the pick will be a failed one of Reed, but given the first year success and the brilliant acquisition of WM, this was a great BPA move which put need (which he took care of with the Denny move) on a second tier.

 

2003- The pick of WM was the ultimate in BPA picks and given his first year productivity last year, this move is paying off big time and will go down in draft history as one of the best picks ever if WM stays on his current development track.

 

TD emphasized how he works to satisfy team position need as a second priority to BPA by masterfully reading the market that he could still get Kelsay (few would have blanched if he had taken Kelsay with our first round pick) because teams that wanted a DL player had already taken one in the run of DL picks.

 

2004- The Evans pick was more of a need pick, though he player well enough as a rookie that it can credibly be argued that he was BPA when he was chosen. However, once again the real work experience was that TD easily traded the 2005 first round pick for a late 1st round choice last year which he used on JP who filled no need whatsoever for the Bills last year, but instead profitted from the time because he was the one who needed work if he was to become our QB of the future.

 

Thus, as far as it gord, I agree with all of those who desperately want to see a Bills OL pick with our first choice this year. This choice even looks logical in terms of Spencer who may well be around when our first pick comes up or Baas if we are able to make the exchange with AZ.

 

However, our first pick comes late enough that it seems like almost a certainty that someone will surprisingly drop down and even though we may have a lock in front of a draftee at a particular position, i do not put it past TD and the Bills at all to throw need out the window and to take a player who they deem BPA with our first choice.

[Bill from NYC]

I posted things about this in a different thread that I started.

Assuming for the sake of this conversation that our draft order does not change, I too believe that TD will go "need," however I believe that his choice will be to draft a corner. Sadly, imo, there is little choice. The Bills are paper thin at this position, both starters return kicks (increasing the odds of injury), and Clements will be a ufa in 06.

Again, I truly hope to see Ty Law sign an incentive laden contract. This could change things, but as for now, I just dont see the Bills going in any other direction with their first pick.

 

PS: Yes, Clements was a "need" pick, but remember, the Bills passed on Hutchinson when they traded with TB, and the OL was even worse than it is now, so there was also a certain amount of BPA going on with that pick/trade.

[Fixxxer]

TD will fill a need only if that player is the BPA, that is why I think that if either Baas or Elton Brown are not available with the #55 he'll draft the BPA in that spot.

After those two, the next OL that would grade as an option at #55 is Ole Miss C Chris Spencer. I'd consider OTs Colmer (with that rare disease) and Adam Terry to be reachs by the time of our first pick.

I'd be happy with the Spencer pick but he'll not be an inmediate performer but a contributor if we don't resign Teague next year.

[obie_wan]

TD will fill a need only if that player is the BPA, that is why I think that if either Baas or Elton Brown are not available with the #55 he'll draft the BPA in that spot.

After those two, the next OL that would grade as an option at #55 is Ole Miss C Chris Spencer. I'd consider OTs Colmer (with that rare disease) and Adam Terry to be reachs by the time of our first pick.

I'd be happy with the Spencer pick but he'll not be an inmediate performer but a contributor if we don't resign Teague next year.

294752[/snapback]

 

As always, Teflon Tom will pick the best player available.

[ndirish1978]

does anyone even know if Law is ok? His injury has only been beaten by 2 players and like I posted before, they were both under 25. He is good, but he may not be well enough to actually play. Last time I checked he was just barely out of a wheelchair and still on crutches. Do you really see him lining up against even a 2nd tier receiver and "crutching" his way to a defensive stop?

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

As always, Teflon Tom will pick the best player available.

294822[/snapback]

 

 

If the Best Player Available Turns out to be Willis McGahee I have no problem whatsoever with Tom being Teflon or whatever and picking him.

 

The concept that Donahoes is a lousy draft leader simply is not supported by any even semi-authoritative collection of the data that I have seen presented.

 

Certainly every fan and poster is entitled to their own fact-free opinions. but folks seem to post the mantra that TD has done a horrible job at drafting during his Bills career with little to support this assertion beyond citing episodic examples of failed players when this is no real indictment of his overall skill since you can come up with a list of failed players for every single GM.

 

TD makes the claim (which I also have not seen any proof to substantiate this) that 50% of even 1st round choices actually do not work out as good choices. I would not expect the record of success of 1st round choices to be that bad (50/50) but I would not be shocked if it was this bad and would be surprised if a full quarter of even the best choices didn't turn out to be huge disappointments.

 

I don't think that thos who lable TD as a failure as a draft leader can actually support this claim with more than their opinions and a few anecdotes.

 

This being said, I do not think TD is a god, in fact I think his first 4 years as the Bills GM are a failure. This is shown in the Bills losing record during his tenure. Hwever, the reason for this record of failure strikes me as because TD screwed up badly with his first HC hire choosing the not-ready-for-HC defensive guru HW who simply was not a well-rounded enough leader to run a good O and mold his D to fit the players he could get rather than demand they pursue a system which is good but the Bills players at the time were not good enough to play.

 

TD's major failing with GW in my mind was not that the was not good at player evaluation. but that he was passive-aggressive with GW and not pushy enough at forcing his team to do what the wanted. If TD had been pushier maybe we would have gotten GW to hire a staff with assistants experienced enough to make for his lackings. GW seemed to fear having anyone around with more experience than him or with the offensive chops to challenge him thus he ended up hiring a bunch of of low experience guys like Sheppard, and Vinky who simply could not do the job.

 

The good news for Bills fans is that the mistake of hiring a GW and allowing GW to hire his own man as a replacement for Sheppard like Kevin Killdrive has ended. MM brought his first team to a still inadequate level since we missed the playoffs, but putting up a winning record and improving this team from 6-10 to 9-7 while still not there yet was a real improvement and clearly is going in the right direction.

 

If someone wants to do a real job of indicting TDs draft record, rather than ignoring his picks of Clements, McGahee. McGee. Evans, instead they make the claim that failed picks like Spoon or Pucillo, or troubled picks like Williams or picks on their way out like Reed define TD. TDs work is not totally defined by a bias siting of only his good picks like Clements or bad picks like Reed. The question is looking at the whole and comparing whether his performance is better than, worse than or the same as the rest of the league during the same period.

 

Overall, my sense is that TD is pretty good as a drafter. The episodes of bad choices like Reed has turned out to be are easily offset by the success of good choices like Clements who made the Pro Bowl.

 

Overall, any judgment of TD actually is still too early to telll as it really can take a good 3 or 4 years to be able to make a real assessment of the quality of a draft class. The Eric Moulds case is a clear example where if you assessed the draft work on his class a full two years after they were picked he was a total bust, but today he still is the best athlete on the Bills roster and arguably the best player (though I think he will be surpassed this year). The WM pick was so huge and he is only 2 years past getting picked and after only a year of play it is too early to declare his career a success. If he has another year like last year, TD will clealy go down as a master drafter almost on this pick alone.

 

In assessing TD as a drafter though it is still early to write the whole story for him as a Bills picker, i think the trendlines are clear and the trndlines are good. In addition to having his share of winners, I think it is also notable that:

 

1. He has shown himself to be a real master at reading the market- From his first draft moves of trading down for needed extra picks in a rebuilding year and still getting the player we needed in Clements and the first CB taken at a lower salaried cap slot was great, two years later he not only made the great pick of WM but read the market that we could still get Kelsay with our second pick, to his latest manuver of trading the 2005 1st pick for a pick of Losman who clearly we have identified as our QB of the future and who by Mort and other judgments would have been the 1st QB taken this year if he had his draft year last season is simply fantastic. These are but 3 episodes but even in his worst draft class in 2002 he again read the market in taking a WR to the surorise of all who despite the flsh in the pan Reed showing allowed us to comfortably tag and trade PP for a pick who became WM. Even when one sites the episodes of market understanding and manipulation it is an every year occurence for TD.

 

2, He has clearly demonstrated the benefits of trading away a #1- What TD has made a practice of that I'm surprised is not imitated more is trading away a future #1 for upfront benefit now. Bledsoe can clearly be faulted for sucking badly in 2003, but with this truth should also come the truth that he deserved his Pro Bowl nod with his on the field performance in 2002, was clearly an upgrade over the performance of RJ the year before, and was a part of Bills fans restored excitment after a 3-13 season. Likewise the trade of the 2095 pick for Losman was simply fanmtastic on a lot of levels, It will be a shame if it doesn't work because JP gets hurt or turns idiot because the set-up is so good. If TD traded our 1st evey year in exchange for help this year I would be a happy camper.

 

3. Where one can find fault with the performance of picks there is a larger story which should not be ignored if one is going to do a full assessment-

 

A. Even the TD flops were good initial choices at the time based on their early performance. Namely Drew deserved to be cut a year earlier than he was cut, but the move paid off handsomely his first year and though the ultimate result can and should be faulted it was a good idea whose final execution did not match the output shown in the first year which showed why TD thought it was reasonable. B. The same is true of Reed who demonstrated that TD had a good idea when he picked him that fell apart ultimately.

C. The same is true of MW who was a developing stud his first two years and a key blocker for some good yardage by Henry but who went south his third year. In this case lets hope he is back.

 

However, in the big picture even though the end results for these three is something TD can be faulted for, he should not be accused of trying something totally irrational with these choices since they did work quite well initially.

 

Overall, I think the TD draft record is a good one. I think that some posters cast aspirtions when their views simply fdo not match the facts. For example, one would believe that TD driven by an insane desire to stab Pittsburgh in the back reached for Ryabn Denny who has been such a disappointing non-contributor TD was forced to go back to DE and pick Kelsay. Convenient story except it isn't true.

 

1. Was Denny a contributor as a player for the Bills worthy of traing up?

 

I say YES! This is shown by the objective fact that this team was able to go with 3 DEs on the depth chart last year. If Denny was so bad why wasn't he beaten out for a job and why did his prescemce even allow us to go with no back-up for him as he backe-up two positions? If he was so bad how did our D become such a monster performer in this league with him playing such an essential role in this run-blitz scheme?

 

2. Did the Bills draft Kelsay because Denney was such a failure?

 

I say No! Denney was clearly not the Bruce Smith we were used to at LDE (but then who is). Denney clearly disappointed as a rookie as he apparently did not hold and apply his tall body in the right way to maintain leverage against the most raw pro blocker. Denney could not even gain activation the first 3/4 of his rookie season on a team desperately in need of OL help he was so unprepared to play.

 

However, the thing to remember here is that 1. he improved enough as a player he was able to take a starting role his second year, and 2. even if he had been a stud as a youngster, the Bills likely would have drafted a DL player high in the Kelsay draft anyway if not simply picked Kelssy even if Genney were a stud. Remember one of the key pieces of GW failure was that he did not use a D scheme which fit his players at all. He switched the team to his favore 4-4set from a 3-4 at exactly the same moment we were losing Hansen to retirement, Wiley to FA, Big Ted as a cao casualty and even on the heels of having lost Bruce as a cap casualty. We responded to this by intensifying our need for DL help by adopting a GW systen which thrived from having Jevon Kearse in place. Even if Denney had been a stud and certainly with him "merely" being good enough to start on a highly ranked D we needed to draft LDE help bigtime. As it was. Denney was good enough that TD felt comforrtable in spending our #1 on WM and risking getting Kelsay with our second pick.

 

The assessment that Denney is somehow a bust is not good football thinking. he is not a football god but Denney is a good choice who has paid off for the Bills and is not a bust at all.

 

It is fact-free views such as this one that underlie the false claim that TD is a bad draft leader. In my view an assessment of his record shows him to be a good draft leader and depending upon how things playout with WM. Evans and Losman may go down as one the best there has been. The only kegit claim against his draft I have seen worthy of consideration is the fact that few of his seond day picks have amounted to the Andre Reed Phil Hansen level were are used to (McGee us the outstanding exception). However, as has been pointed out I have yet to seen a presentation of facts that indicates that the norm in the league among TDs competitors is to produce Pro Bowl players from the second day of the draft either, so perhaps even this failing is fairly par for the course amongst GMs.

[obie_wan]

If the Best Player Available Turns out to be Willis McGahee I have no problem whatsoever with Tom being Teflon or whatever and picking him.

 

The concept that Donahoes is a lousy draft leader simply is not supported by any even semi-authoritative collection of the data that I have seen presented.

 

Certainly every fan and poster is entitled to their own fact-free opinions. but folks seem to post the mantra that TD has done a horrible job at drafting during his Bills career with little to support this assertion beyond citing episodic examples of failed players when this is no real indictment of his overall skill since you can come up with a list of failed players for every single GM.

 

TD makes the claim (which I also have not seen any proof to substantiate this) that 50% of even 1st round choices actually do not work out as good choices.  I would not expect the record of success of 1st round choices to be that bad (50/50) but I would not be shocked if it was this bad and would be surprised if a full quarter of even the best choices didn't turn out to be huge disappointments.

 

I don't think that thos who lable TD as a failure as a draft leader can actually support this claim with more than their opinions and a few anecdotes.

 

This being said, I do not think TD is a god, in fact I think his first 4 years as the Bills GM are a failure. This is shown in the Bills losing record during his tenure. Hwever, the reason for this record of failure strikes me as because TD screwed up badly with his first HC hire choosing the not-ready-for-HC defensive guru HW who simply was not a well-rounded enough leader to run a good O and mold his D to fit the players he could get rather than demand they pursue a system which is good but the Bills players at the time were not good enough to play.

 

TD's major failing with GW in my mind was not that the was not good at player evaluation. but that he was passive-aggressive with GW and not pushy enough at forcing his team to do what the wanted. If TD had been pushier maybe we would have gotten GW to hire a staff with assistants experienced enough to make for his lackings. GW seemed to fear having anyone around with more experience than him or with the offensive chops to challenge him thus he ended up hiring a bunch of of low experience guys like Sheppard, and Vinky who simply could not do the job.

 

The good news for Bills fans is that the mistake of hiring a GW and allowing GW to hire his own man as a replacement for Sheppard  like Kevin Killdrive has ended. MM brought his first team to a still inadequate level since we missed the playoffs, but putting up a winning record and improving this team from 6-10 to 9-7 while still not there yet was a real improvement and clearly is going in the right direction.

 

If someone wants to do a real job of indicting TDs draft record, rather than ignoring his picks of Clements, McGahee. McGee. Evans, instead they make the claim that failed picks like Spoon or Pucillo, or troubled picks like Williams or picks on their way out like Reed define TD.  TDs work is not totally defined by a bias siting of only his good picks like Clements or bad picks like Reed.  The question is looking at the whole and comparing whether his performance is better than, worse than or the same as the rest of the league during the same period.

 

Overall, my sense is that TD is pretty good as a drafter.  The episodes of bad choices like Reed has turned out to be are easily offset by the success of good choices like Clements who made the Pro Bowl.

 

Overall, any judgment of TD actually is still too early to telll as it really can take a good 3 or 4 years to be able to make a real assessment of the quality of a draft class.  The Eric Moulds case is a clear example where if you assessed the draft work on his class a full two years after they were picked he was a total bust, but today he still is the best athlete on the Bills roster and arguably the best player (though I think he will be surpassed this year).  The WM pick was so huge and he is only 2 years past getting picked and after only a year of play it is too early to declare his career a success. If he has another year like last year, TD will clealy go down as a master drafter almost on this pick alone.

 

In assessing TD as a drafter though it is still early to write the whole story for him as a Bills picker, i think the trendlines are clear and the trndlines are good.  In addition to having his share of winners, I think it is also notable that:

 

1. He has shown himself to be a real master at reading the market- From his first draft moves of trading down for needed extra picks in a rebuilding year and still getting the player we needed in Clements and the first CB taken at a lower salaried cap slot was great, two years later he not only made the great pick of WM but read the market that we could still get Kelsay with our second pick, to his latest manuver of trading the 2005 1st pick for a pick of Losman who clearly we have identified as our QB of the future and who by Mort and other judgments would have been the 1st QB taken this year if he had his draft year last season is simply fantastic.  These are but 3 episodes but even in his worst draft class in 2002 he again read the market in taking a WR to the surorise of all who despite the flsh in the pan Reed showing allowed us to comfortably tag and trade PP for a pick who became WM. Even when one sites the episodes of market understanding and manipulation it is an every year occurence for TD.

 

2, He has clearly demonstrated the benefits of trading away a #1- What TD has made a practice of  that I'm surprised is not imitated more is trading away a future #1 for upfront benefit now.  Bledsoe can clearly be faulted for sucking badly in 2003, but with this truth should also come the truth that he deserved his Pro Bowl nod with his on the field performance in 2002, was clearly an upgrade over the performance of RJ the year before, and was a part of Bills fans restored excitment after a 3-13 season. Likewise the trade of the 2095 pick for Losman was simply fanmtastic on a lot of levels, It will be a shame if it doesn't work because JP gets hurt or turns idiot because the set-up is so good.  If TD traded our 1st evey year in exchange for help this year I would be a happy camper.

 

3. Where one can find fault with the performance of picks there is a larger story which should not be ignored if one is going to do a full assessment-

 

A. Even the TD flops were good initial choices at the time based on their early performance.  Namely Drew deserved to be cut a year earlier than he was cut, but the move paid off handsomely his first year and though the ultimate result can and should be faulted it was a good idea whose final execution did not match the output shown in the first year which showed why TD thought it was reasonable. B. The same is true of Reed who demonstrated that TD had a good idea when he picked him that fell apart ultimately.

C. The same is true of MW who was a developing stud his first two years and a key blocker for some good yardage by Henry but who went south his third year. In this case lets hope he is back. 

 

However, in the big picture even though the end results for these three is something TD can be faulted for, he should not be accused of trying something totally irrational with these choices since they did work quite well initially.

 

Overall, I think the TD draft record is a good one. I think that some posters cast aspirtions when their views simply fdo not match the facts.  For example, one would believe that TD driven by an insane desire to stab Pittsburgh in the back reached for Ryabn Denny who has been such a disappointing non-contributor TD was forced to go back to DE and pick Kelsay. Convenient story except it isn't true.

 

1. Was Denny a contributor as a player for the Bills worthy of traing up?

 

I say YES!  This is shown by the objective fact that this team was able to go with 3 DEs on the depth chart last year.  If Denny was so bad why wasn't he beaten out for a job and why did his prescemce even allow us to go with no back-up for him as he backe-up two positions?  If he was so bad how did our D become such a monster performer in this league with him playing such an essential role in this run-blitz scheme?

 

2. Did the Bills draft Kelsay because Denney was such a failure?

 

I say No!  Denney was clearly not the Bruce Smith we were used to at LDE (but then who is).  Denney clearly disappointed as a rookie as he apparently did not hold and apply his tall body in the right way to maintain leverage against the most raw pro blocker. Denney could not even gain activation the first 3/4 of his rookie season on a team desperately in need of OL help he was so unprepared to play.

 

However, the thing to remember here is that 1. he improved enough as a player he was able to take a starting role his second year, and 2. even if he had been a stud as a youngster, the Bills likely would have drafted a DL player high in the Kelsay draft anyway if not simply picked Kelssy even if Genney were a stud.  Remember one of the key pieces of GW failure was that he did not use a D scheme which fit his players at all.  He switched the team to his favore 4-4set from a 3-4 at exactly the same moment we were losing Hansen to retirement, Wiley to FA, Big Ted as a cao casualty and even on the heels of having lost Bruce as a cap casualty. We responded to this by intensifying our need for DL help by adopting a GW systen which thrived from having Jevon Kearse in place.  Even if Denney had been a stud and certainly with him "merely" being good enough to start on a highly ranked D we needed to draft LDE help bigtime.  As it was. Denney was good enough that TD felt comforrtable in spending our #1 on WM and risking getting Kelsay with our second pick.

 

The assessment that Denney is somehow a bust is not good football thinking. he is not a football god but Denney is a good choice who has paid off for the Bills and is not a bust at all.

 

It is fact-free views such as this one that underlie the false claim that TD is a bad draft leader. In my view an assessment of his record shows him to be a good draft leader and depending upon how things playout with WM. Evans and Losman may go down as one the best there has been. The only kegit claim against his draft I have seen worthy of consideration is the fact that few of his seond day picks have amounted to the Andre Reed Phil Hansen level were are used to (McGee us the outstanding exception). However, as has been pointed out I have yet to seen a presentation of facts that indicates that the norm in the league among TDs competitors is to produce Pro Bowl players from the second day of the draft either, so perhaps even this failing is fairly par for the course amongst GMs.

294965[/snapback]

 

as I said, Teflon Tom will pick who they have graded as the best talent available. Need will become a factor when the talent is very close between a few players.

 

As I've also posted, the draft is critical to obtaining future difference makers at affordable cost. Free agency will be used to fill holes with serviceable talent.

[Bill from NYC]

as I said, Teflon Tom will pick who they have graded as the best talent available. Need will become a factor when the talent is very close between a few players.

 

As I've also posted, the draft is critical to obtaining future difference makers at affordable cost. Free agency will be used to fill holes with serviceable talent.

295543[/snapback]

 

Do you realize that you just completed a posting without blaming Drew Bledsoe for something?

Seriously, are you feeling OK?

[/dev/null]

BPA

[obie_wan]

Do you realize that you just completed a posting without blaming Drew Bledsoe for something?

Seriously, are you feeling OK?

295548[/snapback]

and you responded without trashing Travis Henry.

 

wow!

[Bill from NYC]

and you responded without trashing Travis Henry.

 

wow!

297150[/snapback]

[Mark VI]

BPA at a position of need.

[Bill from NYC]

BPA at a position of need.

297156[/snapback]

 

Actually, this makes the most sense, but the Bills history tells me CB.

[LabattBlue]

I don't buy the notion that teams follow their draft boards like gospel(best player available theory). For example, let's say QB's Jason Campbell and Charlie Frye are rated head and shoulders above the next players on the Bills board. Anyone want to try and convince me that TD is going to draft a QB with their pick in the 2nd round? I don't think so.

 

The rhetoric that teams spew after the draft is laughable....

 

"We were shocked that he dropped this far"

"He was the highest rated player on OUR board at the time we picked him"

 

etc....

[Mark VI]

Actually, this makes the most sense, but the Bills history tells me CB.

297158[/snapback]

 

Completely agree that's one of the positions being considered in Round 2, along with Center and DT. A much needed backup RB in round 3 or 4 would also be wise.

[TigerJ]

Actually, more times than not in the second round it would not be either or. The probability is that there will be several players that are very closely rated on the Bills board at the time they pick. If that is true, They probably pick the guy from that group who most closely matches their needs. Only if there is a guy who has dropped precipitously and in the mind of the Bills brain trust is a measurably better player than the others avfailable when they pick, do they ignore their needs list and go purely for the BPA.

[BuckeyeBill]

I tend to think that TD will take the BPA.

 

However, who will the Best Cornerback be when the Bills are drafting #44 (yes I think we will pick at 44). Will he be a person worthy to choose over a stud Lineman like Baas or Spencer??

 

If you think the Bills go Corner... who do you think they take?

[Mark VI]

If you think the Bills go Corner... who do you think they take?

297543[/snapback]

 

Robert James - Fisk University !

 

Wait, where am I ? What year is this ?

[R. Rich]

BPA at a position of need.

297156[/snapback]

 

Kicker

[stuckincincy]

GM.