Warren Sharp: NFL draft warning re QB evaluation process.

[BuffaloRush]

Super interesting.  But for every Kyle Booker there’s a story of a GM like Buddy Nix who was interested in Russell Wilson but defaults. back to the traditional football scout “oh he’s too small to play QB in the NFL.”  The Bills have to take a shot.

 

by the way, where did Warren sharp come from?  That dude is the man!

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think the OP's point might have been, "don't draft an accuracy-challenged QB in the 1st round and hang your NFL hat on him"

 

 

 

Yeah, the Falcons should never have drafted Favre and the Packers should never have traded for him in hopes they could fix his accuracy.

 

His college career at Southern Miss:

 

1987 79/194, 40.7% for 1264 yards 6.5 YPA, 15 TDs and 13 INTs

1988 178/319, 55.8% for 2271 yards, 7.1 YPA, 16 TDs and 5 INTs

1989 206/381, 54.1% for 2588 yards, 6.8 YPA, 14 TDs and 10 INTs

1990 150/275 54.5% for 1572 yards, 5.7 YPA, 7 TDs and 6 INTs

 

1992 Green Bay 302/471, 64.1% for 3227 yards, 18 TDs and 13 INTs ...

  ... as a 2nd year NFL player

 

The point should be something along the lines of make sure you respect both the pluses and minuses and without emotion put in the work to figure out if your guy can improve in accuracy and the other important measures of being a good QB.

 

And you'd better be right.

 

 

Edited April 24, 2018 by Thurman#1

[Hapless Bills Fan]

11 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

Yeah, the Falcons should never have drafted Favre and the Packers should never have traded for him in hopes they could fix his accuracy.

 

With all respect, Favre was drafted in 1991.  Both the pro and college games were different then - more pro-style offense in college and different rules re: passers and DBs in the pros.

 

While some of the top QB of the early '90s had completion percentages >60% (Steve Young, Troy Aikman), many of the top passers of that era had consistent completion percentages below 60% (Warren Moon, Dan Marino, Bernie Kosar).  

 

The expectations differed.

 

It's usually a mistake to reach 30 years back for refuting examples IMHO

 

And in truth - I think "you'd better be right" is a problematic viewpoint.  It needs to be recognized that there are enough factors in drafting a QB that teams WILL be wrong a certain percent of the time, and they can't make their GMs so fearful of making a mistake that they become afraid to take their shot.

Edited April 24, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan

[Thurman#1]

18 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

With all respect, Favre was drafted in 1991.  Both the pro and college games were different then - more pro-style offense in college and different rules re: passers and DBs in the pros.

 

While some of the top QB of the early '90s had completion percentages >60% (Steve Young, Troy Aikman), many of the top passers of that era had consistent completion percentages below 60% (Warren Moon, Dan Marino, Bernie Kosar).  

 

The expectations differed.

 

It's usually a mistake to reach 30 years back for refuting examples IMHO

 

And in truth - I think "you'd better be right" is a problematic viewpoint.  It needs to be recognized that there are enough factors in drafting a QB that teams WILL be wrong a certain percent of the time, and they can't make their GMs so fearful of making a mistake that they become afraid to take their shot.

 

 

The expectations did differ. What was not expected then nor anytime since was that Favre's completion percentage jumped 10 points between college and his first NFL year. He made a huge improvement. 

 

The good point that you make about stats being worse back then is very true, but irrelevant. Favre's completion ratings weren't very good even when compared to his contemporaries in college and then suddenly improved a great deal when compared to his contemporaries in the NFL.

 

For example, in Favre's last year in college, he completed 54% of his passes, his second-best year in college. That same year, the top ten looked like this:

 

1) Jason Palumbis Stanford 68.6%

2) Ty Detmer BYU 64.2%

3) Jason Verduzco Illinois 63.7%

4) Dan Enos Michigan State 62.3%

5) Casey Weldon Florida State 61.5%

6) Todd Marinovich USC 60.9%

7) Mike Romo SMU 60.7%

8) Shane Matthews Florida 60.6%

9) Matt Baker Temple 60.4%

10) Matt Rodgers Iowa 60.3%

 

Favre was 46th. He was 64th in yards, 82nd in YPA, 65thin QB rating, 68th in TDs ...

 

Two things to pick out of this. He got drafted in the 2nd. Clearly teams weren't convinced he was awful by his bad college stats. They were able to see that sometimes bad performances can have other explanations than bad QB talent. 

 

And sometimes guys can improve between college and the pros.

 

Needless to say, sometimes bad stats simply mean the guy is bad, and sometimes guys don't improve between college and the pros. But the fact that he's widely considered a top ten pick should tell you that the teams think that he has a good chance of success.

 

In other posts I've come up with more contemporary examples. They are out there. Stafford, as a quick example.

 

You'd better be right is indeed problematic. It's also simply factual on pretty much every single pick of a quarterback in the first round. Be right or be prepared to lose your job three to five years down the road, Mr. GM.

 

 

Edited April 25, 2018 by Thurman#1

[Sweats]

I think we can all agree that taking a project QB in the first round is a very, very bad idea.

[maryland-bills-fan]

On 4/23/2018 at 10:36 PM, Seanbillsfan2206 said:

You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take. We need to take a shot to be in it

Gee,  basketball teams that shoot "threes" from mid court with a hand in their face go 2 for 37.  Those 6 points don't win many games.

[Seanbillsfan2206]

1 hour ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Gee,  basketball teams that shoot "threes" from mid court with a hand in their face go 2 for 37.  Those 6 points don't win many games.

Wow. You’re an idiot

[maryland-bills-fan]

No,  wanting to do doing stupid things rather than good things makes somebody a idiot.