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Will the Bills be a good fit for any QB this year?


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58 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

There is a great article on ESPN's website today by Bill Barnwell that thoroughly chronicles how hard it is to evaluate a QB in the draft.  It is definitely worth the read.  There is one paragraph in particular that really struck me, and I'm inclined to agree with it.

 

"As I mentioned earlier this year in talking about Case Keenum, the old trope about how there aren't 32 good starting quarterbacks to go around is naive. The problem is that there aren't 32 good quarterback situations to play within, a reality that was reinforced by the success of Keenum and Foles after they looked disastrously bad under Jeff Fisher with the Rams. Teams that are spending every waking hour worrying about picking the right guy are likely kidding themselves to think that they can reliably pick the best quarterback from this group. They should worry about making themselves the right fit for whoever they end up choosing."

 

It made me think about the current state of our Bills.  If we do trade up to grab one of the Blue Chip QBs this year, it will take the lion's share of our draft capital this year and possible our first round pick next year.  As any Bills' fan will admit, we have a lot of holes on this team.  Our WR corps is incredibly suspect.  We have major holes at LB, and our O-Line is not what anyone would call a strength. (UPDATE:  Incognito just retired) Enter a rookie QB on this team that is more than just a QB away from being a contender.  Who does he have on the coaching staff to help guide him to become a franchise QB, to help him overcome a less than stellar supporting cast?  Who is the QB whisperer for the Bills?

 

What about the head coach?  Nope, it's not going to be McDermott, he's a defensive guru. 

 

What about the Bill's QB coach?  The Bills QB coach is David Culley.  He was hired last year by the Bills and this is his first shot at being a QB coach in the pros.  He has been a NFL coach since 1994 but has been a wide receiver coach for all of it.  He was a QB coach at the college level, but that was from 1985-88 for Southwestern Louisiana.  What ever you feel about Tyrod Taylor, he didn't really blossom last year under Culley.  I don't think we can call him a QB Whisperer. Below is his coaching resume'.

 

1994-95   Tampa Bay WR Coach

1996-98   Pittsburgh WR Coach

1999-10   Philly WR Coach

2011-12   Philly WR Coach / Senior Offensive Assistant

2013-16   Kansas City WR Coach / Assistant Head Coach

2017-       Buffalo QB Coach

 

What about the Offensive Coordinator Brian Daboll?  Is he a QB Whisperer?  Below are his NFL coaching positions since he joined the NFL.  I don't think anyone can look at his resume' below and objectively and say that he is a QB Whisperer.

 

2000-01    New England Defensive coaching assistant

2002-06    New England WR coach

2007-08    New York Jets QB coach (Chad Pennington's last NYJ year / Kellen Clemens)

2009-10   Cleveland Offensive Coordinator  (Derek Anderson)

2011         Miami Offensive Coordinator   (Chad Henne / Matt Moore)

2012         Kansas City Offensive Coordinator   (Matt Cassel / Brady Quinn)

2013         New England Offensive Assistant

2014-16   New England  Tight End Coach

2017        Alabama Offensive Coordinator and QB Coach (Jalen Hurts)

 

So we have a team full of holes including the O-Line and WRs, and no one on the coaching staff that has demonstrated any ability to nurture a QB.  The question may not be which of the QBs in this year's draft is the best fit for the Bills, but rather, are the Bills going to be a good fit for any of the QBs in this year's draft?

 

I don't want to poke a stick in the eye of the "draft a QB this year no matter the cost" crowd, but it looks like we might just be setting up whomever we draft this year for failure.   Might it be better to fill the holes in the roster with this years draft?  Unload a bunch of Terry and Kim's money to lure away a proven QB guru from another team in the 2019 off season,  and then "sell the farm" next year to grab the best QB in the draft.  Then you will give whomever we draft, the player we are "selling the farm" for,  the best possible chance to succeed?  We need to maximize the chance that our QB is not just the right QB, but also in the right situation to succeed.

 

Some may counter that we should "sell the farm" for a QB this year and then have him sit a year behind McCarron.  My response would be that if there is a QB in this year's draft who is such an amazing prospect that it will be worth it to "sell the farm" to get him, then why does he need to sit a year?   Luck didn't sit.  Newton didn't sit.  Wentz didn't sit.  Mariota and Winston didn't sit.  Eli, Peyton, Big Ben, Russell Wilson, Derek Carr etc, etc...  All of them played rookie year.   If this year's QB is all that and a bag of chips, why cant we just start him this year? 

 

Ultimately, we may be a year too early in rolling the dice on our franchise QB (and a roll of the dice it will be as evidenced by the perpetual "which QB do we draft" battles on this board). If there was an Andrew Luck in this year's draft I would be all for doing whatever it takes to grab him.  But the truth of the matter is... there isn't.  There may be some wisdom in building a team that will support our rookie QB first, instead of having a rookie QB come in who will be expected to succeed in-spite of his supporting cast.   Just some food for thought before the draft.  

 

 I will now sit back and await my public lashings...

 

 

Good question from yesterday.

 

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@26CornerBlitz

 

The article is a two part feature.  I’m responding to today’s article which is the second part. I think it’s a good read if you have the time.

Edited by Inigo Montoya
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10 minutes ago, 1billsfan said:

 

Given the really really bad state of the offensive line, the best fit is clearly Lamar Jackson. They will no doubt need a QB with the best wheels since Michael Vick.

 

Worst fit would be Josh Rosen because he's the least elusive and concussion prone.

 

 

No way no how do I want us to draft a QB based on our o-line. Draft the best QB and fix the o-line. That's like buying a car to fit your tires.

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7 minutes ago, MikeSpeed said:

No way no how do I want us to draft a QB based on our o-line. Draft the best QB and fix the o-line. That's like buying a car to fit your tires.

 

Yes I agree with the Mikester here.    Your QB is around for a dozen years or more if he's the right pick.    We will go through several complete roster turnovers in that time.

 

While the OP raises a great point, I still don't think it changes your draft strategy and the simple fact that QB's picked higher generally have a better chance of success.   

 

Although I must say it would be a really fun experience to draft just a bunch of Oline and a WR across the board and see how McCarron and Peterman do.   Might prove the point he's brought up.

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The Bills at 12 and 22 should be able to get one of the top 6, maybe even a top 4 QB. 

 

These guys all have the talent to be successful, but it's a marriage that will require compromise. The team will have to compromise MORE with certain QBs.

 

They just need to be willing to do so. Can "the process" accommodate the compromise that is needed?

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32 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

But it’s not just about this year and it would be a terrible decision to think like that. 

 

Understood, but I do think Incognito's retirement just took Josh Rosen off the Bills board. You just can't pretend that he's not going to get crushed like David Carr did when he was drafted by the Texans. The guy is not mobile and he has a proven history of concussions while playing at a much lower level than the NFL. As the kids like to say...it is what it is. By the time the Bills built a Fort Knox in front of him, he would be done.

 

I do think that Darnold, Mayfield, Jackson and Rudolph would be QB picks that could survive a shaky offensive line due to having the size, mobility or both. Plus none of them have histories of concussions.

 

 

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Just now, 1billsfan said:

 

Understood, but I do think Incognito's retirement just took Josh Rosen off the Bills board. You just can't pretend that he's not going to get crushed like David Carr did when he was drafted by the Texans. The guy is not mobile and he has a proven history of concussions while playing at a much lower level than the NFL. As the kids like to say...it is what it is. By the time the Bills built a Fort Knox in front of him, he would be done.

 

I do think that Darnold, Mayfield, Jackson and Rudolph would be QB picks that could survive a shaky offensive line due to having the size, mobility or both. Plus none of them have histories of concussions.

 

This makes no sense at all.

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3 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

This makes no sense at all.

 

Assuming the Bills have to give up a bunch of high draft picks to get Rosen, where are you going to get the quality players on the offensive line who will be protecting him?

 

Edited by 1billsfan
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1 minute ago, 1billsfan said:

 

Assuming the Bills have to give up a bunch of high draft picks to get Rosen, where are you going to get the quality players on the offensive line who will be protecting him?

 

Do the Bills stop acquiring players after the 2018 offseason?

 

They need roster upgrades regardless of who they draft at QB.

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14 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Do the Bills stop acquiring players after the 2018 offseason?

 

They need roster upgrades regardless of who they draft at QB.

 

The problem is quality players, specifically on the offensive line. They won't have the draft picks to do it. They would have to wait till 2019 free agency and the draft of next year. Are they going to sit Rosen for a whole year and then hope the quality free agent offensive lineman sign with them? Are the 1st or 2nd round rookie offensive lineman going to be great in their first year? If not, then you are looking at year three to get the situation settled for a non-elusive QB such as Rosen.

 

I just don't see the Bills having that kind of long term OL plan for a guy who, while ready to play year one, will need a very good offensive line to protect him.

 

 

Edited by 1billsfan
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5 minutes ago, 1billsfan said:

 

The problem is quality players, specifically on the offensive line. They won't have the draft picks to do it. They would have to wait till 2019 free agency and the draft of next year. Are they going to sit Rosen for a whole year and then hope the quality free agent offensive lineman sign with them? Are the 1st or 2nd round rookie offensive lineman going to be great in their first year? If not, then you are looking at year three to get the situation settled for a non-elusive QB such as Rosen.

 

I just don't see the Bills having that kind of long term OL plan for a guy who, while ready to play year one, will need a very good offensive line to protect him.

 

2019 and beyond with lots of cap space. 

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