ExiledInIllinois Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 What was the end result? /thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Domdab99 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Shaw, just play with the playoff machine and plug in a tie yesterday - then see what we'd have to do to make the playoffs. A tie yesterday was the same as a loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledInIllinois Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 (edited) 1 minute ago, Shaw66 said: Going for it is HIGH RISK. The reward you're after is going to the playoffs. Going for it risks losing the game, which means you don't make the playoffs. So going for it is high risk. Punting is low risk, because the chances are good that you won't lose the game if you punt. If you don't lose the game, you're still in the playoff hunt, so punting is low risk. This! Also, D can score in football. Punting puts ball on 10 yard line... That is closer to a win! Edited December 11, 2017 by ExiledInIllinois Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Just now, ExiledInIllinois said: What was the end result? /thread Not even the point. He got away with a terrible decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledInIllinois Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Domdab99 said: Shaw, just play with the playoff machine and plug in a tie yesterday - then see what we'd have to do to make the playoffs. A tie yesterday was the same as a loss. But it wasn't as same as loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Domdab99 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Shaw66 said: Going for it is HIGH RISK. The reward you're after is going to the playoffs. Going for it risks losing the game, which means you don't make the playoffs. So going for it is high risk. Punting is low risk, because the chances are good that you won't lose the game if you punt. If you don't lose the game, you're still in the playoff hunt, so punting is low risk. Again plug in a tie into the playoff machine and you'll see that the only way we can make the playoffs is by winning out and getting a whole bunch of other things to go our way. Meaning: it ain't going to happen. A tie was as bad as a loss. Just now, ExiledInIllinois said: But it wasn't as same as loss. Okay, I get it now...you just want to be right. Fair enough. Don't bother playing with the playoff machine and seeing that you're wrong, that would be frustrating, I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledInIllinois Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Just now, 26CornerBlitz said: Not even the point. He got away with a terrible decision. No. Got away with a great, gutsy call... In an error of double-down, sexy risk taking because we play very few games in these types of elements now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sven233 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, ExiledInIllinois said: You are right. Won't get into the younger guys head... This sterile football we all watch is making them lose nuance. Thank God we still play in the elements! Yes it was an option. Better than losing. Not in this case....a tie still knocks you out of the Playoffs for all intents and purposes. 0% or 3%.....no real difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaw66 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, Domdab99 said: Here's a situation almost all head coaches in the NFL get wrong: Down by 15 with 5 minutes left. So you need one TD with an PAT and one TD with a 2 pt. conversion to tie, correct? Your team scores a TD. Every NFL coach will kick the PAT, when analytics says you must go for two there. Why? Because it's better to know you have to score more than once more NOW if you happen to fail at the conversion, then if you kick the PAT, get the ball back, and score a TD with 30 seconds left. Yes, you're down by two now and you have to make the conversion to tie the game, correct? But it you don't make it, the game is effectively over. However, if you go for two after the first TD and fail, you're still down by 9 and you know you have to play differently to give yourself a better chance at a win - maybe an offsides KO, whatever. But most coaches are more comfortable kicking the PAT because now they know that if they score the 2nd TD, they must go for two - or most likely lose the game. But it's the wrong decision. This is really classic. Dozens of NFL head coaches over the past 20 years have studied this. Their jobs depend on getting decisions like this right. They all reach the same conclusion: kick after first score. And yet you sit here and tell us that you have this right and all of them have it wrong. Here's why you're wrong: I'm always better off, any time in the fourth quarter, to be in a one score game than a two score game. Why? Well the clock is working against me, for one. But it's also better because it puts pressure on my opponent's offense. If it's a one score game, the offense feels pressure to get first downs, which means they're likely to pass more, which means they're going to be stopping the clock for me every time they throw incomplete. It also increases my chances of a takeaway. If it's a two score game, they feel more comfortable running the ball and running the clock, forcing me to use my time outs. Every coach in the league will tell you he'd rather defend a two-score lead than a one-score lead. Your strategy plays into the hands of your opponent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledInIllinois Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 (edited) He wasn't playing for the tie. A punt gets you 30 yards closer to a win. Concedes the opening drive, turns game into sudden death. You guys are underestimating the power of the D. 14 points were scored the whole game. If BFLo was to win via kick, Colts would have to have a possession. What better place to put that possession than on their own 10!! 1 minute ago, Shaw66 said: This is really classic. Dozens of NFL head coaches over the past 20 years have studied this. Their jobs depend on getting decisions like this right. They all reach the same conclusion: kick after first score. And yet you sit here and tell us that you have this right and all of them have it wrong. Here's why you're wrong: I'm always better off, any time in the fourth quarter, to be in a one score game than a two score game. Why? Well the clock is working against me, for one. But it's also better because it puts pressure on my opponent's offense. If it's a one score game, the offense feels pressure to get first downs, which means they're likely to pass more, which means they're going to be stopping the clock for me every time they throw incomplete. It also increases my chances of a takeaway. If it's a two score game, they feel more comfortable running the ball and running the clock, forcing me to use my time outs. Every coach in the league will tell you he'd rather defend a two-score lead than a one-score lead. Your strategy plays into the hands of your opponent. Sign of the times we live in. People's risk assessment are off the rails. Pulling cart before the horse! Edited December 11, 2017 by ExiledInIllinois Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 1 minute ago, ExiledInIllinois said: He wasn't playing for the tie. A punt gets you 30 yards closer to a win. Concedes the opening drive, turns game into sudden death. You guys are underestimating the power of the D. 14 points were scored the whole game. If BFLo was to win via kick, Colts would have to have a possession. What better place to put that possession than on their own 10!! Give me the ball against bad D like the Colts at their 41 yard line with 1 yard to go and I'm going for it every time without exception. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Domdab99 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 ahahahahahaha...thank you for making my point, guys. Classic. By the way, I'm 54 - not a "young guy." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaw66 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 14 minutes ago, sven233 said: A tie was basically the same as a loss. We are only 25% to get in even with the win yesterday. If we would have tied, the chances would have been like 3%. So, a tie and a loss were essentially the same thing. A tie wasn't an option yesterday. This point is lost on people all the time. It comes up this time of year in most seasons. Teams that are trying to make the playoffs know that losses knock them out, ties don't. 9-6-1 gets the Bills into the playoffs, because it leaves the Bills a half game ahead of all the teams that are 9-7. If the Bills are 9-7, it's quite likely they lose the tiebreakers and they're out. A tie is more like a win than like a loss. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledInIllinois Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Just now, Domdab99 said: ahahahahahaha...thank you for making my point, guys. Classic. By the way, I'm 54 - not a "young guy." But you think like them! Did you have a cow when we played "Chuck Knox Ball"... It got him far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Domdab99 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 And if they tie with the /colts they have to beat the Patriots. You sure you know what you're talking about, Shaw? Just now, ExiledInIllinois said: But you think like them! Did you have a cow when we played "Chuck Knox Ball"... It got him far. how far exactly did it get him? Any Super bowl wins? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledInIllinois Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Shaw66 said: This point is lost on people all the time. It comes up this time of year in most seasons. Teams that are trying to make the playoffs know that losses knock them out, ties don't. 9-6-1 gets the Bills into the playoffs, because it leaves the Bills a half game ahead of all the teams that are 9-7. If the Bills are 9-7, it's quite likely they lose the tiebreakers and they're out. A tie is more like a win than like a loss. But... But... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Domdab99 said: And if they tie with the /colts they have to beat the Patriots. You sure you know what you're talking about, Shaw? how far exactly did it get him? Any Super bowl wins? Ding! Clearly not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledInIllinois Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Just now, Domdab99 said: And if they tie with the /colts they have to beat the Patriots. You sure you know what you're talking about, Shaw? how far exactly did it get him? Any Super bowl wins? Like we'd win the SuperBowl... We are just trying to sniff playoffs... And this kinda ball works well for that. Baby steps! We gotta beat the Cheaters anyway! For any real chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaw66 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, ExiledInIllinois said: He wasn't playing for the tie. A punt gets you 30 yards closer to a win. Concedes the opening drive, turns game into sudden death. You guys are underestimating the power of the D. 14 points were scored the whole game. If BFLo was to win via kick, Colts would have to have a possession. What better place to put that possession than on their own 10!! Sign of the times we live in. People's risk assessment are off the rails. Pulling cart before the horse! This point is completely separate from the one I was making, but it's also correct. Without regard to playoffs, the punt is correct because of the kind of game it was. What do the announcers say about who will win the game that is 35-35 after three quarters? They say the team with the last possession will win, because the teams are scoring on almost every possession. What's the opposite of that? In low scoring games, the rule is and always has been that field position determines the outcome. So in low scoring games, where the ball is on the field is more important than which team possesses it at any given time. Remember the world's worst football game? Bills lose to the Browns 6-3. It was a total field position game. Neither team could move the ball, so it was 3-3 forever. Browns punt with two minutes left. Roscoe knows his offense is not going to move the ball 40 yards downfield or more to try a field goal into the wind at the open end of the stadium. So he makes a high risk effort to catch the ball on the run, figuring he's the best hope to get a big gain or a score. Muffs the punt, Browns recover and get the field position their offense couldn't give them, kick field goal and Bills lose. Except for two drives, it was a field position game. McD knows that, the fans don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Domdab99 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, ExiledInIllinois said: Like we'd win the SuperBowl... We are just trying to sniff playoffs... And this kinda ball works well for that. Baby steps! We gotta beat the Cheaters anyway! For any real chance. Uhm no, as long as we beat the Dolphins both games, we have a decent shot at the playoffs. Titans have to lose two games, though, and the Chargers have to win their division. It'd be better to beat the Patriots, yes...but if we tied the Colts game, we'd have to beat the Patriots to have any chance at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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