CanadianFan Posted April 24, 2017 Share Posted April 24, 2017 (edited) The NFL Draft is coming up this week and we've seen 2 or 3 articles on which teams have done the best job, worst, etc etc. But so many of these were based on pro-bowl selections only which is really limited. What's a better reflection of draft performance of each team is based on the productivity of the players they drafted. Not every player can be a star. Each team needs 22 guys who can perform on the field every single down. The best metric I've seen is by pro-football reference called Approximate Value (AV). http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/index37a8.html And based on the AV, they have a Weighted Career Approximate Value (CarAV). explanation is: At the top of every player's PFR page, you will see "Weighted Career AV" and a ranking since 1950. This is Doug's way of balancing peak production against raw career totals; for each player, he computes the following weighted sum of seasonal AV scores: 100% of the player's best season, plus 95% of his 2nd-best season, plus 90% of his 3rd-best season, plus 85% of his 4th-best season, .... Each team's draft picks and their productivity is listed on individual pages. Bills' draft picks and productivity are listed here: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/draft.htm Thus, a better comparison of each team's performance is by taking the total of CarAV of the players each team drafted and add them up to rank them. I've picked the last 5 years (2012-2016). They are often the most talked about, and also likely have the most impact on a team's performance in the past year. Based on this methodology, I've come up with the following results: The average CarAV for the NFL in those five years is 279.7. Bills at 283 are just above that average. And Bills rank #17 in the NFL in the last five years. It isn't a surprise that Seahawks are #1 on this list. Vikings have been drafting well. Despite Pats penchant for trading DOWN, they are one of the best teams in drafting players, ranking #13. Redskins' numbers is boosted by RG3's production in his rookie year, but nonetheless, he WAS productive. What's surprising indeed is that Broncos haven't drafted well at all. And as we think about it, Payton Manning was a FA signing. So was Ware. Worst teams are not a surprise - Jets, 49ers and Saints. One of the surprises is that Rams are ranked so high. This validates media chatter about the talent on Ram's team, and Jeff Fisher's firing. The story is the same with Jags. Visually Bucs are a talented team and this metric bears it out. And the Ravens' decline is matched by their recent draft history. So while we are NOT a dumpster fire, at the same time we do not belong in the upper echelon of NFL when it comes to drafting. We are right in the big fat middle. The average of the average. Thus, that 7-9 record was perfectly suited. Edited April 25, 2017 by CanadianFan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted April 24, 2017 Share Posted April 24, 2017 That instinctively feels right to me. We are middle of the pack in most facets hence we keep finishing somewhere around the middle of the pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianFan Posted April 24, 2017 Author Share Posted April 24, 2017 (edited) Certainly, Bills' draft ranking is impacted by on-field absence of key draftees from 2016 draft. A closer look at the numbers for bills in the last 3 years indicates this: Edited April 24, 2017 by CanadianFan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan4 Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 That's some good work. Thanks for taking the time to do this. 17 sounds about right to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baskingridgebillsfan Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 The middle of the pack feels right. That could move up a few ticks If Lawson , Ragland and Listenbee develop. Whaley middle of the pack drafter. very good at finding low cost vets. not sure why everyone wants to run him out of town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LABILLBACKER Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 The only GM's worth their salt are the ones that find quality QB's for their teams... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianFan Posted April 25, 2017 Author Share Posted April 25, 2017 The middle of the pack feels right. That could move up a few ticks If Lawson , Ragland and Listenbee develop. Whaley middle of the pack drafter. very good at finding low cost vets. not sure why everyone wants to run him out of town yeah exactly. If last year's 3 top defensive picks perform this year, the overall draft performance picture will get better. What's also interesting is that we can see how some teams are outperforming their draft picking ability. Certainly free agency signings help, though there's something to be said of 1) living on past drafts and 2) coaching talent covering up weak draft performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Domdab99 Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 Interesting, but that list looks like a completely random ranking. So this obviously has very little to do with winning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hondo in seattle Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 Certainly, Bills' draft ranking is impacted by on-field absence of key draftees from 2016 draft. A closer look at the numbers for bills in the last 3 years indicates this: Great research. Good info in both initial posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianFan Posted April 25, 2017 Author Share Posted April 25, 2017 (edited) Correlation between draft performance and winning Let's look at correlation between draft performance and wins. It's a 5 year window only, and it does not take into account 1) drafts in prior years 2) free agency signings 3) coaching performance. And you'll see where those three things factor in. So what I did was to plot out the total number of wins of NFL teams in the last five years to the total CareerAV (pro football reference) of their draftees. And for the most part, there is a pretty good suggestion of correlation: There is an interesting performance grouping here. Not everyone is at the average, but most are close to the trend line. At the top of the trend line, are the Seahawks. The masters of the Draft in the past five years. Now there are some significant outliers. On the OVER-PERFORMANCE side, we have Pats and Broncos. In each case, legacy draft results, coaching and FA signings have exceeded their recent draft performance. On the UNDER-PERFORMANCE side, this analysis clearly shows what we know intuitively - Browns, Jags, Rams, Bucs and Titans have done worse than what their drafts have been able to bring in. That is a clear indication of coaching ineffectiveness. Titans and Bucs are showing signs that's changing last year. And going by this analysis, Bills again performed where they should have. So, theoretically, Rex Ryan did what he was supposed to. Win at the level of draft performance. He didn't add to it, like Broncos and Pats have. He didn't under-perform either. He was just average. And that won't beat the Pats. Edited April 25, 2017 by CanadianFan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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