Mr. WEO Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Cutting the kicker is a terrible idea. FGs are important. Go for it on 4th down, and even if you pick up the yards you still haven't scored. You have to keep going and going, giving the defense more chances to stop the drive. BUT, going for two point conversions a lot does make sense. The stats show that in past years teams averaged almost 50% on 2 pt conversions and almost 100% on 1 pt conversions. Over time, the odds are that you came out about even if you were going for 2 regularly. This year with the 1 pt moved back to snap from the 15, expect the success rate to go down. That's now a 33 yard kick, which is probably successful 80-85% of the time. Now, if you can keep converting 2 pt conversions at about 50%, you'll come out ahead going for 2 most of the time. (I can see going for 1 in particular situations, for example if you score a TD to tie near the end of the game, and just need 1 pt to take the lead, the kick has better odds.) Say a team scores 6 TDs a game. If they try six 2 pt conversions and make three of them, they'll have six points from conversions. If they try six 1 pt conversions at 80-85%, they'll make five of them, getting five points. OTOH if a team is scoring six TDs per game they're winning a whole lot anyway. If you're only getting a couple of TDs per game, a coach would really put himself on the hot seat if he loses more points by going for 2 a lot. Will teams keep converting 2 pts at about 50%? That's not clear. I think defenses will devote more time to preparing to stop 2 pt conversions, and offenses will devote more time developing plays for the situation. I can't predict which (if either) will gain an advantage from familiarity. It's 94% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Utah John Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Mr. WEO, I'm not saying you're wrong, but 94% sounds too high for 33 yard FGs. Do you have a link for that? Probably there is one, the NFL being so stats-crazed, so again I'm not saying you're wrong, I'd just like to see the site. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justnzane Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Nothing to do with high school. it's potentially forward thinking. With the elimination of kickoffs forthcoming the value of the kicker diminished now that the kicks are moved back. Not much, but some. The elimination of a kickoff could create a new position of a shared position for a team. Your original post is interesting, but the idea that the kicker's value is diminished with the XP's being moved back is outright wrong. It is increases the need for a consistent kicker thus the value is increased. According to the Boston Globe, the 2pt conversion rate has been about 47.5% and the 33 yd FG rate has been about 93%. Meaning if you have an average red zone offense and an average kicker, you should expect approximately the same amount of points from kicking or going for two. If you have a dominant line, and a shaky kicker than you should go for 2 more. If your team sucks at getting push, go for the 1. The 2pt conversion will create more variability and alter the game more for better or for worse. You have to have some round ones to cut Carpenter as it means that you would anticipate, not too many FG's and to score north of the 47.5% at 2pointers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Mr. WEO, I'm not saying you're wrong, but 94% sounds too high for 33 yard FGs. Do you have a link for that? Probably there is one, the NFL being so stats-crazed, so again I'm not saying you're wrong, I'd just like to see the site. Thanks. It's listed as 93-94% everywhere you look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CodeMonkey Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Assuming the Boston Globe is correct and the 2 point conversion rate has been 47.5% and the 33 yd FG rate has been 93%, that would create an expected point total of .930 points per attempt for the extra point from that distance, and .950 points per attempt for the 2 point conversion. So it slightly favors the 2 point conversion but not enough to cut your kicker, who you would need anyway for actual 3 point field goals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boyst Posted August 31, 2015 Author Share Posted August 31, 2015 Assuming the Boston Globe is correct and the 2 point conversion rate has been 47.5% and the 33 yd FG rate has been 93%, that would create an expected point total of .930 points per attempt for the extra point from that distance, and .950 points per attempt for the 2 point conversion. So it slightly favors the 2 point conversion but not enough to cut your kicker, who you would need anyway for actual 3 point field goals. that's exactly what i was looking for - someone to double check my stats on it. i wasn't brave enough to post my stats but it looked like it was slightly a better advantage to go for a 2pt conversion. however, most games are within 3-4 points, and somehow that matters to coaches. it doesn't. a >4 point game is played entirely different then a <4 pt game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gr8billsfan Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Until we are down by 3, and we need a field goal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Best Player Available Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 I know this is not going to happen, but what if? Field position means a lot and it makes sense. Somewhere out there a team has a lousy field goal kicker and a good enough OL that they may consider. It makes sense to cut your FG kicker or just use a punter who can kick off then go for two points most of the time. In our case we have two kickers. I love Carpenter and he is money, I do not know if Gay will be on the final roster, like some say or not - but he has had 11 touchbacks this preseason - that was after kicking two in the Steelers game so maybe he has more. But, I would totally be fine with us going for two points instead of going for the long kick in most cases. Is this crazy? Is there a team that may do this? Chip Kelly did that almost 100% of the time at Oregon on their first TD. i suspect he will be above average in NFL 2 pt. conversion attempts this season. Could be the only reason if Tebow survives the turk he has a job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan89 Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 Two point conversions are a what 30% success rate? Not the wisest strategy and then dropping the ability to hit most field goals on top of that? Seems like a very bad idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Barbarian Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 I know this is not going to happen, but what if? Field position means a lot and it makes sense. Somewhere out there a team has a lousy field goal kicker and a good enough OL that they may consider. It makes sense to cut your FG kicker or just use a punter who can kick off then go for two points most of the time. In our case we have two kickers. I love Carpenter and he is money, I do not know if Gay will be on the final roster, like some say or not - but he has had 11 touchbacks this preseason - that was after kicking two in the Steelers game so maybe he has more. But, I would totally be fine with us going for two points instead of going for the long kick in most cases. Is this crazy? Is there a team that may do this? rather have Fred than two kickers. How many Teams have two kickers anyway, Is Carpenters leg that weak that he can't kickoff and do FGs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CodeMonkey Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 Two point conversions are a what 30% success rate? Not the wisest strategy and then dropping the ability to hit most field goals on top of that? Seems like a very bad idea. 47.5% which makes it basically a wash with the extra point at the new distance. Not a coincidence I suspect. IMO that's the reason they picked the distance that they did for the extra point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boyst Posted September 1, 2015 Author Share Posted September 1, 2015 47.5% which makes it basically a wash with the extra point at the new distance. Not a coincidence I suspect. IMO that's the reason they picked the distance that they did for the extra point. but for the argument of player safety, will they keep this up as is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CodeMonkey Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 but for the argument of player safety, will they keep this up as is? What player safety factor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boyst Posted September 1, 2015 Author Share Posted September 1, 2015 What player safety factor? goal line plays are very dangerous for players, the short yardage high torque kind of play that is generated from running backs and OL trying to blow up a few yards. i know it's just another play, but if the nflpa had it their way there would be 4 or 5 plays per game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CodeMonkey Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 goal line plays are very dangerous for players, the short yardage high torque kind of play that is generated from running backs and OL trying to blow up a few yards. i know it's just another play, but if the nflpa had it their way there would be 4 or 5 plays per game. I cannot imagine that is a factor. Even on an extra point the big boys in the trenches and pounding on each other pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boyst Posted September 1, 2015 Author Share Posted September 1, 2015 I cannot imagine that is a factor. Even on an extra point the big boys in the trenches and pounding on each other pretty good. i get it, this whole thread is thinking outside the box. if i'm a coach and its middle of the week and my kicker got hurt or if i'm in a game and my kicker got hurt or anything i would be totally fine letting the punter handle kickoffs that week or next week and going for 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts