What Is More Important Final Game Stats or Individual Drive

[PolishDave]

I must look at football differently than most people on this forum. I look at each football game as if it is a series of smaller games. Each possession is like its own independent game. If you are on offense, your objective is to score a touchdown. If you can’t do that, then your second objective is to try to score a field goal. If you can’t do that, then your third objective is to gain as many yards in your favor as possible and put the other team at as big of a disadvantage as possible by giving them the worst field position possible.

 

When you are on defense your objective is the exact opposite. 1) Take the ball away if possible. 2) Stop them from scoring a touchdown 3) Stop them from scoring a field goal 4) Stop them from gaining ground or even make them lost ground if you can and put your offense in the best position to be successful on their next possession.

 

Everybody understands that. I know.

 

The part I think is funny is that when guys are discussing how well an individual player performed or how well a unit played (offense/defense/special teams) they very often like to use the final stats at the end of the game to prove a point. In reality, the only stats that matter at the end of a game that counts is the score. Rushing yards don’t matter. Passing yards don’t matter. Completion percentages don’t matter. Sometimes they can be useful if there is a crazy high number stat or a crazy low number stat. But unless the stats show an unusually high or unusually low number, then those stats don’t really tell you anything at all about how the game played out or how anybody performed.

 

What really matters is, when the offense had the ball during each drive, were they able to accomplish their primary objective (touchdown). If not, then were they able to accomplish their secondary objective (field goal). If not, then were they at least able to move the chains and gain field position advantage over the other team?

 

When the defense was on the field during each drive were they able to accomplish their primary objective (turnover). Were they able to accomplish their secondary objective (prevent a touchdown). If not were they able to accomplish their third most important objective (prevent a field goal). If not were they able to stop the opponent from gaining field position?

 

Do you look at individual drives and possessions like they are mini-games within the game? Or are you just one of these guys who cares about all of these end of game stats (other than the final score) and thinks they actually mean something? Just curious. What is your opinion?

[LeGOATski]

Efficiency matters. Sometimes stats make them seem more or less efficient than they really were, so you have to make that distinction.

 

You're right, but you can still use stats to effectively support an argument.

[Kelly the Dog]

Neither. Or both.

 

Both are important but one is not more important than the other. And a crappy drive with a bunch of mistakes that ends in a TD is way better than a long drive that ends in a FG or no points. The object of the game on offense is to win. The next object is to score points. The third object is to not turn the ball over. The fourth is to control the ball.

[LeGOATski]

We need John Madden for this discussion.

 

"If you wanna win, you gotta score more points than other team!"

[PolishDave]

Efficiency matters. Sometimes stats make them seem more or less efficient than they really were, so you have to make that distinction.

 

You're right, but you can still use stats to effectively support an argument.

I agree. They are useful in the right situation. Like when there is a huge number like a receiver catching a huge number of balls suggests he must have been open often. Or if a defender gets 3 sacks. But most stats like most quarterback stats and total rushing yards and things like that, are stats that are very often used to mislead people into thinking a certain way much in the same way that politicians use stats.

 

Ultimately the score is what really matters. But second to that, what really matters is how the team performed in a given situation on each drive. (in my opinion)

Edited August 21, 2015 by PolishDave

[The Wiz]

I agree. They are useful in the right situation. Like when there is a huge number like a receiver catching a huge number of balls suggests he must have been open often. Or if a defender gets 3 sacks. But most stats like most quarterback stats and total rushing yards and things like that, are stats that are very often used to mislead people into thinking a certain way much in the same way that politicians use stats.

 

Ultimately the score is what really matters. But second to that, what really matters is how the team performed in a given situation on each drive. (in my opinion)

But crediting receivers and discrediting qbs stats is kind of hypocritical, no?

[TSOL]

I think stats are meaningful when trying to determine individual players abilities. As far as scouting players to bring in, or determining if a guy is good enough to keep on the squad. But stats can be misleading in the final outcome of a game, say if a QB goes 5 of 17 for 120 yards and two touchdowns, but loses the game. Did he play a good game? You would have no idea from those numbers so you have to watch the game. Because football is the consumate team game.

 

I'm not huge on stats, they can be misleading but can be a good gauge of players. The strategy aspect of football, the back and forth, field positions and yes, mini battles, that's what I love about football.

[Metal Man]

Individual statistics in a team sport never really tell the true story. This is especially true in football which imho is the ultimate team sport.

 

For me baseball is probably the only team sport where someone can be efficiently judged by their individual numbers.

[PolishDave]

But crediting receivers and discrediting qbs stats is kind of hypocritical, no?

I don't think so because they are two different positions measuring totally different things.

 

The point I am trying to make is that most stats are rather ambiguous unless they are significantly outside the middle 68% of the bell curve. And they very rarely are. Most stats that are used to make a point on forums and talk radio and television sports commentary are stats that clearly fall within that middle 34% above or below average. And that renders them meaningless when trying to grasp what happened during that game. Analysis on a drive by drive case is the best approach in my opinion.

 

Ultimately I suppose you would really have to measure individual players on a play by play analysis. But as this is a team sport, I think the drive analysis is the best approach for measuring offensive play quality or defensive play quality.

Edited August 21, 2015 by PolishDave

[The Wiz]

I don't think so because they are two different positions measuring totally different things.

 

The point I am trying to make is that most stats are rather ambiguous unless they are significantly outside the middle 68% of the bell curve. And they very rarely are. Most stats that are used to make a point on forums and talk radio and television sports commentary are stats that clearly fall within that middle 34% above or below average. And that renders them meaningless when trying to grasp what happened during that game. Analysis on a drive by drive case is the best approach in my opinion.

 

Ultimately I suppose you would really have to measure individual players on a play by play analysis. But as this is a team sport, I think the drive analysis is the best approach for measuring offensive play quality or defensive play quality.

That's fair. If have to say that judging on an individual possession would be a little too nitpicking for my taste but judging all of them as a whole without factoring stats would probably be how I would do it and then break it down afterwards.

 

Basically saying a person, unit, etc had a good game and then going over what they did that made it good.

 

Looking at it drive by drive with the parameters you gave, someone could conclude that Taylor has an average game yesterday(even though that's not the case)

 

Then, if you looked at it play by play, he would have had a good game.

Edited August 21, 2015 by The Wiz