Film Review - Week 13 - Orton Unforced Errors/ O Line Play

[Kelly the Dog]

@Andy_Benoit

 

 

I could be wrong but I still think the underneath crossing pattern of Chandler right in front allowed Leonhard to just drift and watch Ortons eyes and then jump.

[Maddog69]

 

 

Well, first off, this narrative needs to stop.

 

I'm sure you're on record here as saying how great EJ was poised to be, just like many of the posters here who suddenly want to blame his limitations on the coaching staff.

 

Secondly, the cause for Orton's so-called slide (sure looked bad against NYJ, huh?) can easily be explained one of two ways that have zero to do with the TSW default coaching critique:

1. He's a much different QB than EJ and thus runs a different kind of offense differently. Whaley said as much in an interview. For his first few starts, teams didn't have reliable tape to gameplan for him. Now they do.
    
   
2. He's Kyle !@#$ing Orton. Markets have a tendency to normalize, and once teams figured out what he/Hackett were up to, guess what? He regressed to the mean.
   

Its possible Orton has looked his best against the Jets because the J-e-t-s suck suck suck.

[JC2002]

Interesting take. I think Orton has gotten a little gun-shy, because he was hit a LOT during his first few games in the lineup. The line has actually started to play much better, but he may be rushing things.

 

I have not evaluated the film and this is just a gut reaction. If there is some truth to it, hopefully he gets over it quickly.

 

or maybe hes gotten gun shy because everyone cries over turnovers and going into the bye week people said simply dont turn it over and we will win more games .

 

We have no run game and people want to pass for tds but dont want turnovers or sacks even with the knowledge that the Online is not that great

[A Dog Named Kelso]

or maybe hes gotten gun shy because everyone cries over turnovers and going into the bye week people said simply dont turn it over and we will win more games .

 

We have no run game and people want to pass for tds but dont want turnovers or sacks even with the knowledge that the Online is not that great

I think this has a lot to do with it. When he was less worried about turnovers and sacks he was making more plays. Again, I think this a coaching thing ... I think it is the same thing that was drilled into EJ.

[Bocephuz]

Thanks for posting this again. I always like reading the breakdown and see if it matches my impression from watching live. I'm surprised the line provided that good protection this week.

 

I hate to ask for more legwork from you, but can you post the week-over-week trending for your categories? You've done this enough weeks now, that it would be interesting.

[Rockinon]

Sammy is not making those crisp breaks like he was early in the season. Hope he gets healthy soon. I wonder if he is still dealing with hamstring issues. Fred is coming back strong but he looks slow out there . Orton needs his playmakers healthy. How about this new TE/HBack with 2 catches for 71yds? I'd like to see some more screens to RBs and TEs.

[26CornerBlitz]

QB snapshot: Kyle Orton

A quick observation of quarterback Kyle Orton and how he played in the Buffalo Bills' 26-10 win in Week 13:

 

One of the early advantages the Bills found when they turned to Orton over EJ Manuel was Orton's ability to drive the ball down the field accurately.

 

Through his first four starts, Orton had the NFL's fifth-highest completion percentage on throws of at least 15 yards, completing 19 of 35 passes.

 

That rate has dropped considerably over his past four starts. Orton has completed just 9 of 25 passes of at least 15 yards over his past four starts, including a 1-for-5 showing in Sunday's win over the Browns.

 

His one completion on a deep ball was a 34-yard gain by Robert Woods on fourth-and-3 in the third quarter. That one was a game-changer.

[Bocephuz]

Thanks for posting this again. I always like reading the breakdown and see if it matches my impression from watching live. I'm surprised the line provided that good protection this week.

 

I hate to ask for more legwork from you, but can you post the week-over-week trending for your categories? You've done this enough weeks now, that it would be interesting.

 

SURE.. here's what I have so far. I'll post the O Line numbers as well as Orton's numbers.

- Two things to note here

- O LIne has been much better since Urbik came back week 8

- Orton was making steady progress up until the Dolphins game and has been up and down since

 

 

 

ORTON UNFORCED ERROR HISTORY

- Week 5 - DETROIT - 20% Unforced Error Rate ( defined as 20% of his throws where Orton had time were off target.. or he took a bad sack)

26% O Line Breakdown Rate ( defined as Orton not having a moment to throw when he hits his last step of his drop)

 

- Week 6 - NE - 15% Unforced Error Rate

25% O Line Breakdown Rate

 

 

-Week 7 - SD - 10% Unforced Error

28% O Line Breakdown

 

- Week 8 - NYJ - 14% Unforced Error

19% O Line Breakdown

 

 

- Week 10 - KC - 11% Unforced Error

9% O Line Breakdown

 

- Week 11 - Dolphins - 22% Unforced Error

20% O Line Breakdown

 

- Week 12 - Jets ( did not do analysis - I would assume it to be a low # for both units here)

 

= Week 13 - Browns - 28% Unforced Error

6% O Line Breakdown

Edited December 3, 2014 by Bocephuz

[papazoid]

#1- Orton sucks (at best mediocre).

 

#2- the Oline with Urbik at LG has been a huge improvement.

 

#3- TE's are the weak link on offense. not getting much from chandler and smith in catches or blocking. that new TE looked like a superstar compared to those two clowns.

[Bocephuz]

What about the one he spiked seven feet short of Sammy on the comeback route?

 

I counted that one as an unforced error.. just didn't put it as a notable play

 

Always appreciate this thread. Thanks.

 

Curious if you felt, as I did when re-watching, that the two best plays by the Cleveland secondary were the defensive holding penalties they took against Sammy? On both, he had the defender (Haden the first time, Skrine the second) beaten soundly on a double-move that would've lead to him being wide open down the sideline. Each time, Orton looked in his direction and had to pull the ball down when the foul occurred.

 

They were generally all over Sammy and everyone else all day. Smart penalties

 

 

I was going to ask about that one as well.

 

Great stuff as usual.

 

Here is what I am hoping: Orton is consistently inconsistent. But a) all QBs miss a few throws per game, and b) Orton is capable of making all throws, he seems to either be on or off for entire games. So c) He's been off three of the last four for the most part. And he's a 50-50 guy. It's not unreasonable to think he could be the good Orton this week, or even the next two. As a 50-50 guy, it's almost unreasonable to imagine he will be the bad Orton 5 out of 6 games.

 

I think that's what we are seeing is the Good Orton/ Bad Orton phenomenon .. which is probably the real Orton. I think he was pumped up the first few weeks and now that he is more comfortable perhaps the real Orton is coming out now. He's definitely better than any QB we've had since Bledsoe when he's on.. I think we just have to hope that his bad streaks only go one or two games in a row at the most

[The Big Cat]

Its possible Orton has looked his best against the Jets because the J-e-t-s suck suck suck.

 

You, know, actually, they're still ranked 7th in total yards and 10th in ypp.

 

They just give up an assload of points.

 

Think of it as our offense and its redzone woes, just in reverse.

 

I counted that one as an unforced error.. just didn't put it as a notable play

 

Cool, thanks.

 

And also, way to be on this stuff. This board appreciates some good sweat equity for the good of the order. It's a popular place because--believe it or not--it's one of the more reasonable places on the Internet, and that's thanks, in no small measure, to quantifiable context provided by posters like you that helps steer the conversation.

 

Bravo!

[papazoid]

if it wasn't for Robert Woods spectacular catches, Orton would be back on the bench.

[Wooderson]

Just a note, some of the OLine not picking up a stunt could be on the QB as well. Note the QB is usually calling the "Mike" out, or the LB that the OL or RB need to pick up on a blitz or a particular run play. If Orton is calling out the wrong "Mike", it could be his fault.

[Bocephuz]

 

 

You, know, actually, they're still ranked 7th in total yards and 10th in ypp.

 

They just give up an assload of points.

 

Think of it as our offense and its redzone woes, just in reverse.

 

 

 

Cool, thanks.

 

And also, way to be on this stuff. This board appreciates some good sweat equity for the good of the order. It's a popular place because--believe it or not--it's one of the more reasonable places on the Internet, and that's thanks, in no small measure, to quantifiable context provided by posters like you that helps steer the conversation.

 

Bravo!

 

Thank you for your feedback and thoughtful replies/posts as well. I like that there fair number of objective reasonable posters here to counteract the shoot from the hip emotional types

 

if it wasn't for Robert Woods spectacular catches, Orton would be back on the bench.

 

I have to admit there was a point in the Browns game where the thought of pulling Orton and putting in EJ crossed my mind. I think right at that moment Orton stepped up and made that aggressive 4th down throw to Woods. Orton's best quality is his aggressiveness and willingness to put the ball in tight spots.. and I think that type of attitude digs him out of the holes he puts himself in. Risky business though... I really hope he can develop some more consistency.. particularly since the O line is playing much better now. If he keeps walking that tightrope it's going to be tough to justify him being the everyday guy next year.

Edited December 3, 2014 by Bocephuz

[thebandit27]

I have to admit there was a point in the Browns game where the thought of pulling Orton and putting in EJ crossed my mind. I think right at that moment Orton stepped up and made that aggressive 4th down throw to Woods. Orton's best quality is his aggressiveness and willingness to put the ball in tight spots.. and I think that type of attitude digs him out of the holes he puts himself in. Risky business though... I really hope he can develop some more consistency.. particularly since the O line is playing much better now. If he keeps walking that tightrope it's going to be tough to justify him being the everyday guy next year.

 

I had the exact same reaction/timing to Orton's play. I think I said the words "uh oh, they really might need to get him outta there" on that very series. Then I nearly had a heart attack when, instead of taking the easy run for the 1st down, he launched the ball 30 yards downfield to Woods. Turned out to be the right play though.

[A Dog Named Kelso]

SURE.. here's what I have so far. I'll post the O Line numbers as well as Orton's numbers.

- Two things to note here

- O LIne has been much better since Urbik came back week 8

- Orton was making steady progress up until the Dolphins game and has been up and down since

 

 

Not giving an excuse for Orton's bad play of late, but I was just wondering ... is the Dolphins' game the one where he hurt his thumb? I am just wondering if that has not fully healed yet ... basically trying to keep EJ off the field and playing through an injury? Does any one remember when that was?

[thewildrabbit]

Good stuff

 

Alas, (for me) the wrong guy / player's under the microscope IMO. I look back at that game and have to think typical Bills this year. We KNOW Kyle Orton isn't an elite QB, and he never was or will be. What he is is an experienced veteran QB who can read the defensive alignment, adjust the protections, and change the play if needed. Orton has a decent arm, and if given proper time in the pocket he usually does a good job.

 

Now, that said lets look at what he was facing this week in the Cleveland secondary. CB Joe Haden who will take away the #1 WR by himself, and even Buster Skrine is a decent CB. Then Cleveland is a middle of the pack defense overall, #18 total, #8 pass defense, #29th in rush defense.

 

So any knowledgeable person would surmise that the best way to beat the Browns would be with a stout run game, and keep the passing to a minimum. Low, and behold the Bills come out throwing just like they have since the Chargers game.

 

1st series, 4 plays, 17 yards pass, run, pass, pass, Punt--three passes, one run

2nd series, 4 plays, 9 yards run, pass, pass, pass, Punt --three passes, one run

3rd series, 7 plays, 55 yards pass, pass, run, pass, run, pass, pass, INT--five passes, two runs

4th series, 3 plays, 4 yards run, pass, run, Punt--one pass, two runs * This series after gaining 9 yards on the first two plays the last run was up the middle (FJ) on third down for no gain. Penalty delay of game on punter -5.

5th series, 3 plays, 6 yards pass,(penalty - pass interference) run, pass, time out- drop back Sacked -9 yards, Punt- three passes, one run

6th series, 6 plays, 11 yards pass, pass, pass, spike ball, missed FG

 

Then during the 3rd quarter with a lead the Bills start running the ball more often with some success, and just like magic Kyle Orton starts to play a whole bunch better when he isn't forced to shoulder the entire offense on his own. In one series in the 3rd the Bills actually went run, run, run, pass.

 

START QTR POSS. YARD PLAYS YARDS RESULT 12:27 1 01:33 BUF 29 4 17 Punt 04:51 1 01:35 BUF 20 4 9 Punt 01:44 1 03:45 BUF 38 7 55 Interception 07:24 2 02:11 BUF 27 3 4 Punt 03:34 2 01:48 BUF 25 3 6 Punt 01:02 2 01:02 CLE 46 6 11 Missed FG 15:00 3 00:41 BUF 20 3 5 Interception 12:13 3 04:09 BUF 16 8 84 Touchdown 06:18 3 02:41 BUF 38 5 20 Punt 01:42 3 03:01 CLE 48 6 17 Field Goal 12:59 4 00:58 CLE 21 4 5 Field Goal 08:47 4 05:15 BUF 20 10 64 Field Goal 02:43 4 02:16 CLE 23 4 6 Field Goal

 

http://espn.go.com/n...ameId=400554321

 

I think we get the point here that the Bills didn't even really attempt to run the ball more often until they had an established lead. Then they found out they could run the ball, and did pretty well against that 29th ranked run defense. 30 rushes for 106 yards, a 3.5 YPC average.

 

A defensive score also helped the team get over 20 points against a team with a winning record.

Edited December 3, 2014 by FeartheLosing

[JC2002]

if it wasn't for Robert Woods spectacular catches, Orton would be back on the bench.

 

well there a would be a whole lotta qbs being benched then because the catches Woods made are the norm for every single top passing attack in the league.

[The Big Cat]

well there a would be a whole lotta qbs being benched then because the catches Woods made are the norm for every single top passing attack in the league.

 

Yep!

 

Robert Woods is doing what professional receivers are supposed to do and routinely do for other teams. We just haven't seen it in awhile because we haven't had QB's that let them go up and make a play.

[JC2002]

Good stuff

 

Alas, (for me) the wrong guy / player's under the microscope IMO. I look back at that game and have to think typical Bills this year. We KNOW Kyle Orton isn't an elite QB, and he never was or will be. What he is is an experienced veteran QB who can read the defensive alignment, adjust the protections, and change the play if needed. Orton has a decent arm, and if given proper time in the pocket he usually does a good job.

 

Now, that said lets look at what he was facing this week in the Cleveland secondary. CB Joe Haden who will take away the #1 WR by himself, and even Buster Skrine is a decent CB. Then Cleveland is a middle of the pack defense overall, #18 total, #8 pass defense, #29th in rush defense.

 

So any knowledgeable person would surmise that the best way to beat the Browns would be with a stout run game, and keep the passing to a minimum. Low, and behold the Bills come out throwing just like they have since the Chargers game.

 

1st series, 4 plays, 17 yards pass, run, pass, pass, Punt--three passes, one run

2nd series, 4 plays, 9 yards run, pass, pass, pass, Punt --three passes, one run

3rd series, 7 plays, 55 yards pass, pass, run, pass, run, pass, pass, INT--five passes, two runs

4th series, 3 plays, 4 yards run, pass, run, Punt--one pass, two runs * This series after gaining 9 yards on the first two plays the last run was up the middle (FJ) on third down for no gain. Penalty delay of game on punter -5.

5th series, 3 plays, 6 yards pass,(penalty - pass interference) run, pass, time out- drop back Sacked -9 yards, Punt- three passes, one run

6th series, 6 plays, 11 yards pass, pass, pass, spike ball, missed FG

 

Then during the 3rd quarter with a lead the Bills start running the ball more often with some success, and just like magic Kyle Orton starts to play a whole bunch better when he isn't forced to shoulder the entire offense on his own. In one series in the 3rd the Bills actually went run, run, run, pass.

 

START QTR POSS. YARD PLAYS YARDS RESULT 12:27 1 01:33 BUF 29 4 17 Punt 04:51 1 01:35 BUF 20 4 9 Punt 01:44 1 03:45 BUF 38 7 55 Interception 07:24 2 02:11 BUF 27 3 4 Punt 03:34 2 01:48 BUF 25 3 6 Punt 01:02 2 01:02 CLE 46 6 11 Missed FG 15:00 3 00:41 BUF 20 3 5 Interception 12:13 3 04:09 BUF 16 8 84 Touchdown 06:18 3 02:41 BUF 38 5 20 Punt 01:42 3 03:01 CLE 48 6 17 Field Goal 12:59 4 00:58 CLE 21 4 5 Field Goal 08:47 4 05:15 BUF 20 10 64 Field Goal 02:43 4 02:16 CLE 23 4 6 Field Goal

 

http://espn.go.com/n...ameId=400554321

 

I think we get the point here that the Bills didn't even really attempt to run the ball more often until they had an established lead. Then they found out they could run the ball, and did pretty well against that 29th ranked run defense. 30 rushes for 106 yards, a 3.5 YPC average.

 

A defensive score also helped the team get over 20 points against a team with a winning record.

 

Isn't amazing how most of the fan base and the coaching staff have totally changed in that regard and now suddenly expect us in a matter of weeks to develop a top ten passing attack . We have gone from the #2 rushing attack to the #24 and are now expecting Orton to win every game with his arm not some of the games but every single game and we are upset at Orton for not being able to do it when we know he is not a elite QB.