Tell me about RB

[bills1960]

I just want to know who's going to be the odd man out in the event that the Bills draft a RB in the 4th round or earlier. If that were to happen, the only two who are really safe would be Fred and whomever the draft pick is. That leaves Spiller vs. Dixon for the last roster spot (with as many WRs we have, i doubt they keep 4 RBs).

 

So I think consensus would be that Dixon would be sent packing, but why? No chance Spiller resigns here. I'm not a Spiller hater but he certainly has not lived up to the hype he had out of college and has only had one really productive year (I don't include this year due to the injuries but kudos to him making up for lost time at the end of the season).

 

Therefore I think the Bills should be shopping him hard in and around the draft. If we could get a second round pick for him, that'd be stellar.

[YoloinOhio]

I just want to know who's going to be the odd man out in the event that the Bills draft a RB in the 4th round or earlier. If that were to happen, the only two who are really safe would be Fred and whomever the draft pick is. That leaves Spiller vs. Dixon for the last roster spot (with as many WRs we have, i doubt they keep 4 RBs).

 

So I think consensus would be that Dixon would be sent packing, but why? No chance Spiller resigns here. I'm not a Spiller hater but he certainly has not lived up to the hype he had out of college and has only had one really productive year (I don't include this year due to the injuries but kudos to him making up for lost time at the end of the season).

 

Therefore I think the Bills should be shopping him hard in and around the draft. If we could get a second round pick for him, that'd be stellar.

I think they can keep Spiller. Fred, Dixon and Rookie. Dixon is going to play ST and FB.

[Mark80]

CJ depends on being completely healthy (which he was not last season hampered by a bad ankle) and a good OL (which we did not have last year). With a good OL and good health, he is better than FJ in my opinion. Freddy is Freddy regardless of his health and how good or bad our line is. Solid runner that will get you solid yards on every carry and heart that just don't find on every team.

 

Spiller was healthy in 2012 and we had a better line that year as well, result: much better performance. Huge plays every game, very few negative or 0 yard runs. He was sliding though holes and making cuts that he just couldn't do last year.

 

Also, we had a pretty conservative playbook last year with EJ et. all at the helm, this allowed Ds to play more run D than before IMO.

 

Spiller is a special talent, Freddy is a special all around person / leader / player. Hope we have them both for a few more years at least.

[JPS]

CJ depends on being completely healthy (which he was not last season hampered by a bad ankle) and a good OL (which we did not have last year). With a good OL and good health, he is better than FJ in my opinion. Freddy is Freddy regardless of his health and how good or bad our line is. Solid runner that will get you solid yards on every carry and heart that just don't find on every team.

 

Spiller was healthy in 2012 and we had a better line that year as well, result: much better performance. Huge plays every game, very few negative or 0 yard runs. He was sliding though holes and making cuts that he just couldn't do last year.

 

Also, we had a pretty conservative playbook last year with EJ et. all at the helm, this allowed Ds to play more run D than before IMO.

 

Spiller is a special talent, Freddy is a special all around person / leader / player. Hope we have them both for a few more years at least.

CJ may be a special talent, but he's not a special player. He really needs to stay on the field this year.

[boyst]

barely, 4.6YPC compared to 4.3. CJ outrushed Jackson by 43 yards, yet, Jackson's carries accounted for 54 first downs compared to Spiller's 26 (9 came on runs of 20+ yards which fuels the all or nothing comments regarding CJ). Jackson 9 TD's, Spiller 2.

 

With his age/abilities Spiller should have relegated FJ to second fiddle status the minute he walked onto the field at SJF. The fact that he has not is a testament to FJ and an indictment of CJ.

jboyst62 likes this comment

 

And for those who want a different perspective. If you were starting a team today and had to pick between Spiller and Jackson for a RB who would you choose?

 

If you were starting a team two years ago you had one choice that you had to make. Jackson.

 

Today you could still make the safer bet in the better player - Jackson.

[Luxy312]

There's a lot to say about "what happened to RB" last season. Spiller suffered a high ankle sprain early in the season that lingered and prevented him from making the same type of cuts that he did the year before. If you watched the games, he would go out and get a carry or two and then take himself off the field. This wasn't just a couple weeks, but the entire season. I blame the coaching staff a little bit here. You have a dynamic runner/receiver that needs to be able to make moves in space and they play him even though he can only run straight ahead. Now look at the offensive line. It was well below average in the running game. So many 2nd and short, followed by 3rd and short because they couldn't move the pile. This was true for both Bills running backs. At the end of the day, if you want 3-6 ypc with almost no chance of a big play, Jackson is the better choice. He's also clearly the better blocker when they need a RB to chip in with the passing game. Spiller has at times been downright awful picking up even a corner or safety blitz. Despite being a down year last year, the numbers still play out as explained. Out of 201 attempts, Spiller had 30 carries for negative yards. However, 11 of those carries went for 15+ yards and 9 of them went for 20+. Out of 207 attempts, Jackson had only 11 for negative yards. But only 4 carries went for 15+ yards and only 1 for 20+. I attribute the negative yards almost specifically to his injury based on the year prior:

 

Spiller - 205 carries, 12 were 20+, 32 were 10+, 16 negative.

Jackson - 185 carries, 0 were 20+, 12 were 10+, and 15 negative.

 

I.e. our perceptions are that Spiller gets caught for losses more than Jackson and that's because of 2013. The reality is that was not the case when Spiller is healthy. It comes down to whether you're looking at a running back to break a 10+ yard play 15-16% of the time he gets the ball or another that rarely breaks the big play but gets you the more consistent 3-6 yard play.

[C.Biscuit97]

There's a lot to say about "what happened to RB" last season. Spiller suffered a high ankle sprain early in the season that lingered and prevented him from making the same type of cuts that he did the year before. If you watched the games, he would go out and get a carry or two and then take himself off the field. This wasn't just a couple weeks, but the entire season. I blame the coaching staff a little bit here. You have a dynamic runner/receiver that needs to be able to make moves in space and they play him even though he can only run straight ahead. Now look at the offensive line. It was well below average in the running game. So many 2nd and short, followed by 3rd and short because they couldn't move the pile. This was true for both Bills running backs. At the end of the day, if you want 3-6 ypc with almost no chance of a big play, Jackson is the better choice. He's also clearly the better blocker when they need a RB to chip in with the passing game. Spiller has at times been downright awful picking up even a corner or safety blitz. Despite being a down year last year, the numbers still play out as explained. Out of 201 attempts, Spiller had 30 carries for negative yards. However, 11 of those carries went for 15+ yards and 9 of them went for 20+. Out of 207 attempts, Jackson had only 11 for negative yards. But only 4 carries went for 15+ yards and only 1 for 20+. I attribute the negative yards almost specifically to his injury based on the year prior:

 

Spiller - 205 carries, 12 were 20+, 32 were 10+, 16 negative.

Jackson - 185 carries, 0 were 20+, 12 were 10+, and 15 negative.

 

I.e. our perceptions are that Spiller gets caught for losses more than Jackson and that's because of 2013. The reality is that was not the case when Spiller is healthy. It comes down to whether you're looking at a running back to break a 10+ yard play 15-16% of the time he gets the ball or another that rarely breaks the big play but gets you the more consistent 3-6 yard play.

 

Great post. And we have them both!!! Why the hell are we even talkign about who is better? Fred is the better short yardage and blocker. Spiller is maybe the 3rd most explosive rb in the entire NFL.

[Matt in KC]

I just want to know who's going to be the odd man out in the event that the Bills draft a RB in the 4th round or earlier. If that were to happen, the only two who are really safe would be Fred and whomever the draft pick is. That leaves Spiller vs. Dixon for the last roster spot (with as many WRs we have, i doubt they keep 4 RBs).

 

So I think consensus would be that Dixon would be sent packing, but why? No chance Spiller resigns here. I'm not a Spiller hater but he certainly has not lived up to the hype he had out of college and has only had one really productive year (I don't include this year due to the injuries but kudos to him making up for lost time at the end of the season).

 

Therefore I think the Bills should be shopping him hard in and around the draft. If we could get a second round pick for him, that'd be stellar.

I think the following make the team:

Fred

CJ

Dixon or Frank Summers

Draft pick

 

And I wouldn't be surprised to see one of them on the IR/able to return list to make roster space. (Call me cynical, but I think these things are gamed all the time.)

[packfntk]

So Eddie Lacy and who? Just joking. I totally agree that he is one of the most explosive players at his position.

 

Is it scheme? Is he is the wrong system? Would he be Shady if you switched Spiller and McCoy's teams?

[hondo in seattle]

Fred is a stronger, more versatile running back.

 

C.J. is elusive and has crazy acceleration. But he needs space, and the OL and OC didn't create that space.

 

For CJ to live up to his potential, we need better run blocking but we also need better offensive coaching (better play design, better preparation, better play calls).

[HeHateMe]

Fred with CJ's athleticism would be a hall of famer.

 

Fred is the better pure RB but is getting up there in age and has injury issues.

 

I think what has kind of been forgotten about is how much better CJ was used under Gailey. Getting him the ball in space and splitting him out wide, a lot more short passes and screens too. Yea the O-line wasn't as good but a lot of what I saw was poor play design. CJ isn't going to do well vs a stacked line. I think you have to run him out of passing sets more than what we have seen to create more space. He was excellent in these situations 2 years ago.

 

Last season it seemed whenever CJ was in the back field, the Bills were going to just hand him the ball via read option. The defense knew this every time and just jumped the run. They have to be more creative with him and he has to be a little better in pass protection as well to mix it up.

 

Add the lingering ankle issue, worse O-line play, and obvious play-calling and you get the 2013 season.

 

Neither backs have been good in short yardage.. How many times did Fred get stuffed at the goal line last year? It was pretty bad.

[boyst]

Fred is a stronger, more versatile running back.

 

C.J. is elusive and has crazy acceleration. But he needs space, and the OL and OC didn't create that space.

 

For CJ to live up to his potential, we need better run blocking but we also need better offensive coaching (better play design, better preparation, better play calls).

Fred is the better RB. CJ is the better athlete. And both by a mile.