Part 2 Offensive Lines are more successful

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

As a follow-up to the topic I created a couple days ago relating to whether offensive lineman are a better bet than skill players at the top of the draft. I created a database of all players drafted between 1978-97. Why this period? Because from 1998 onward still has players who are playing and contributing. Also this marks the beginning of the 16 game schedule and it is a 20 year window. All told there were approximetly 4500 players (20*224 per year). I used PFR AV ratings and created a rating method for the players. And, a method to value each selection. I’ll spare you the gory details, you’ll have to trust me. Anyway, I came up with a system to rate the pick as at HIT or MISS, with most picks being rated as neutral. After all, that is really the question we are after isn’t it? Whether a pick was a hit or a miss at the top of the draft. BTW, this portion if only about the top 15-20 picks. I have much more on my database!

One final thing about the ratings in case you don’t believe in them. Players were rated on a 10-8-6-4-3-2-1-0 scale.

A typical 10 is Emmitt Smith.. 8 Andre Reed.. 6 Keyshawn Johnson.. 4 Henry Jones..3 Tyrone Wheatley…2 Antonio Edwards…1 Perry Tuttle…0 Gene Bradley (the immortal QB drafted 31? By the Bills and never played a game).

A 10 made an average of 5 All-Pro teams, 9 Pro Bowls, was a 14 year starter and played 221 games with an AV of 128.

An 8 made 2 AP, 6PB, 12St, 195gms,98AV

6s…. 1AP,3PB,10St, 180 gms, 78 AV

4s….. 1PB,9St, 156 gms, 58 AV

3s…..6 St, 123 gms, 39 AV

2s….3 St, 86 gms, 18 AV

1s…. 29 gms, 3 AV

ZEROS…never played

DRUMBEAT!!!

The Offensive Lineman beat the skill guys pretty handily. Tackles had a hit rate of almost 40%. Overall OL hit on 36% of picks at the top of the draft. Skill guys hit on only 26%. QBs were the exception, with a rate similar to the O-Line-35%. Running Backs (22%), and especially TEs (11%) were the worst.

How about the misses? TEs had a miss rate just shy of 80%! QBs and RBs were in the 40-45% range. O-linemen were best at about 25%,lower is better of course. Hope this helps some evidence to the point, and doesn’t just add to the BS. All for now.

[SJDK]

What about WR?!

[Luxy312]

That's my kind of analysis. Hard data to support a conclusion over wild conjecture. That said, I would like to see your work split between positions. After all, we're talking about a Bills team here that will be drafting a RT. LT's get drafted early all of the time that have significant long term success in the NFL.

[Prickly Pete]

Now rate the impact each position has on a game...

[Kellyto83TD]

As a follow-up to the topic I created a couple days ago relating to whether offensive lineman are a better bet than skill players at the top of the draft. I created a database of all players drafted between 1978-97. Why this period? Because from 1998 onward still has players who are playing and contributing. Also this marks the beginning of the 16 game schedule and it is a 20 year window. All told there were approximetly 4500 players (20*224 per year). I used PFR AV ratings and created a rating method for the players. And, a method to value each selection. I’ll spare you the gory details, you’ll have to trust me. Anyway, I came up with a system to rate the pick as at HIT or MISS, with most picks being rated as neutral. After all, that is really the question we are after isn’t it? Whether a pick was a hit or a miss at the top of the draft. BTW, this portion if only about the top 15-20 picks. I have much more on my database!

One final thing about the ratings in case you don’t believe in them. Players were rated on a 10-8-6-4-3-2-1-0 scale.

A typical 10 is Emmitt Smith.. 8 Andre Reed.. 6 Keyshawn Johnson.. 4 Henry Jones..3 Tyrone Wheatley…2 Antonio Edwards…1 Perry Tuttle…0 Gene Bradley (the immortal QB drafted 31? By the Bills and never played a game).

A 10 made an average of 5 All-Pro teams, 9 Pro Bowls, was a 14 year starter and played 221 games with an AV of 128.

An 8 made 2 AP, 6PB, 12St, 195gms,98AV

6s…. 1AP,3PB,10St, 180 gms, 78 AV

4s….. 1PB,9St, 156 gms, 58 AV

3s…..6 St, 123 gms, 39 AV

2s….3 St, 86 gms, 18 AV

1s…. 29 gms, 3 AV

ZEROS…never played

DRUMBEAT!!!

The Offensive Lineman beat the skill guys pretty handily. Tackles had a hit rate of almost 40%. Overall OL hit on 36% of picks at the top of the draft. Skill guys hit on only 26%. QBs were the exception, with a rate similar to the O-Line-35%. Running Backs (22%), and especially TEs (11%) were the worst.

How about the misses? TEs had a miss rate just shy of 80%! QBs and RBs were in the 40-45% range. O-linemen were best at about 25%,lower is better of course. Hope this helps some evidence to the point, and doesn’t just add to the BS. All for now.

All that work and OBD will ignore all of it because they have been drafting for years and pay millions on scouting. But hey....good use of time.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

POS HITS% NEUTRAL% MISS% H/M RATIO

 

LB 33 47 20 1.7

T 39 34 26 1.5

 

QB 42 23 35 1.2

DL 31 43 26 1.2

DB 41 41 38 1.1

 

G/C 31 38 31 1.0

WR 30 36 33 0.9

 

RB 22 34 44 0.5

TE 11 11 78 0.1

 

How would I use this data applying to the Bills at 9. NFL.com has the following players rated fairly closely.

Ebron TE 6.4

Lewan T 6.2

Evans WR 6.2

Mosley LB 6.5

Clinton - Dix DB 6.1

 

Assuming the Bills ratings don't differ much. A big assumption I know! I would put Lewan,Mosley ahead of Evan and Dix, with Ebron bringing up the rear. I would be very leary of a TE this high. They have done very poorly by comparison. The thing about a pick this high is you cant afford to blow it. Get a good player who can play for a number of years at a high level.

 

I am not advocating passing on a player ranked much higher. But, within our areas of need, and within reasonable scouting grades, get the most likely to succeed player.

Edited April 11, 2014 by 75Bills

[thebandit27]

I appreciate the effort.

 

One thing has me confused though, and it may be a poor assumption on my part, but I'm assuming that a 4 would be either a miss or the bottom level of neutral?

 

If so, I'm not sure that it's fair to call a 9-year starter with a pro bowl on his résumé a 4. That would seemingly skew the data set to call far too many players misses and neutral IMO.

 

Now, I could be reading it wrong, as no one knows your method better than you, so I'll refrain from trying to draw any conclusion until I know if what I'm inferring is accurate.

 

Again, thanks for the effort.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

I appreciate the effort.

 

One thing has me confused though, and it may be a poor assumption on my part, but I'm assuming that a 4 would be either a miss or the bottom level of neutral?

 

If so, I'm not sure that it's fair to call a 9-year starter with a pro bowl on his résumé a 4. That would seemingly skew the data set to call far too many players misses and neutral IMO.

 

Now, I could be reading it wrong, as no one knows your method better than you, so I'll refrain from trying to draw any conclusion until I know if what I'm inferring is accurate.

 

Again, thanks for the effort.

Actually I undertook a rather painstaking effort to create a Draft Value Chart. Whether the guy is a 4 or 6 ,or whatever, he is compared to the spot he was drafted and assigned a different value. The difference between the two is the hit or miss. For example, a guy becomes a 10 value, say Tom Brady. But, as a late sixth rounder he may have a draft spot value of 1. He would then net a 9, well above the threshold set for a hit. Same thing the other way for a miss. Hope this clears things up. It is a too involved process to explain entirely in this format.

[Mr. WEO]

POS HITS% NEUTRAL% MISS% H/M RATIO

 

LB 33 47 20 1.7

T 39 34 26 1.5

 

QB 42 23 35 1.2

DL 31 43 26 1.2

DB 41 41 38 1.1

 

G/C 31 38 31 1.0

WR 30 36 33 0.9

 

RB 22 34 44 0.5

TE 11 11 78 0.1

 

How would I use this data applying to the Bills at 9. NFL.com has the following players rated fairly closely.

Ebron TE 6.4

Lewan T 6.2

Evans WR 6.2

Mosley LB 6.5

Clinton - Dix DB 6.1

 

Assuming the Bills ratings don't differ much. A big assumption I know! I would put Lewan,Mosley ahead of Evan and Dix, with Ebron bringing up the rear. I would be very leary of a TE this high. They have done very poorly by comparison. The thing about a pick this high is you cant afford to blow it. Get a good player who can play for a number of years at a high level.

 

I am not advocating passing on a player ranked much higher. But, within our areas of need, and within reasonable scouting grades, get the most likely to succeed player.

 

How many TE's have been picked in the first round, compared to OT's? Only 9 since 2004. 5 of them made the Pro Bowl--3 of them twice.

 

Isn't the AV the value to their team? It's not a comparison to other players at that position. A playmaker on a team of playmakers won't have the same value as o standout on a bad team, no? Also, how bad is your team if one of your top valued players is an OT?

 

An interesting exercise is to see the OT's picked in the first round over the years compared to non-QB skill players in the same draft. The "AV" starts to look a little shaky...

 

2013--tons of OTs taken. None yet with any measurable impact.

 

2012--Kalil vs. Mike Floyd?

 

2011--Solder vs. Julio Jones or AJ Green?

 

2010--Trent Williams vs. Ryan Matthews? Baluga or Okung vs. Dez Bryant?

 

2009--Jason Smith or Andre Smith or Eugene Monroe vs. Crabtree or Harvin or Moreno or Hakeem Nicks or Pettigrew or Macklin?

 

2008--Long or Chris Williams or Sam Baker or even Clady vs. McFadden, CJ2k,----or Matt Ryan or Flacco! (sorry, couldn't resist--Miami will always regret that decision).

 

2007--Joe Thomas or Levi Brown vs. Megatron??? AP??? or Beastmode? Or Revis?

 

2006--Ferguson vs. Vernon Davis or Deangelo Williams, or Santonio Holmes or Mercedes Lewis?

 

2005--Jamal Brown or Alex Baron vs. Roddy White or Braylon Edwards or Heath Miller or Caddy Williams/Ronnie Brown/Cedric Benson?

 

2004--Gallery or Venon Carey vs. Larry Fitzgerald or Winslow or Lee Evans or Steven JAckson?

[DallasMac]

Now rate the impact each position has on a game...

Exactly what I was thinking. How does the best OT in football change a game like the best wr. Its not apples to apples. I have no problem taking an OT but to compare a top tackles production to a top receiver isn't equal.

[Prickly Pete]

A big reason why some positions aren't as easy to hit, is because fewer people can do the job at a high level. And naturally, those are the positions people are trying to fill with high picks.

 

Honestly, they can find a decent lineman without using the 9th pick. Isn't that obvious? They haven't prioritized it enough, but that doesn't mean they can't get a guy without blowing the 9th pick.

[Hatszel]

here is an out of the box way to look at what team would do better at team with all offensive lineman or all wr I think I would put my money on the Offensive lineman. Good lines make average players good players good wr are only good wr they do not elevate the team to the same as offensive lineman do.

 

I understand lineman are not as fun to watch as WR but better teams have better lines.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

A big reason why some positions aren't as easy to hit, is because fewer people can do the job at a high level. And naturally, those are the positions people are trying to fill with high picks.

 

Honestly, they can find a decent lineman without using the 9th pick. Isn't that obvious? They haven't prioritized it enough, but that doesn't mean they can't get a guy without blowing the 9th pick.

No it's not obvious. And, blowing the 9th pick-really!!!

[thewildrabbit]

Now, if only this current team gave a flying fornication about building a top O line, or one with talent equal to the Bills D line.

 

 

In the 60's the Bills had all pro's at every position on that line when they won 2 AFL championships. In the 70's they had the "electric co" for OJ, and the first 2000 yard rusher. In the late 80', early 90's they had 3 of 5 pro bowlers who could run that hurry up so well it wore down opposing teams.

 

Now they seem content to dumpster dive for other teams rejects....is it any wonder why they don't win many games.

[BetterNextYearRight?]

I don't support the use of the #9 overall pick on Oline, that being said think people are forgetting in the elite linemen versus elite skill player discussion that 1 good plaer on the line doesn't make much of a difference. It's much more of a group position where you need 5 guys who work well together, have continuity and can pull there own weight, it shouldn't be (for example) Megatron vs. Okung it should be Megatron vs. Seattle's OL.

 

The Bills need a dominating OL, not necessarily a elite RT/RG. Those positions need to be addressed but to say an elite RT(no.9) versus an average one (rd2) makes a complete difference? No, you just can't be dragging dead weight(Legursky) a full season.

 

Gabe Jackson/Morgan Moses in the 2nd please, and trade down unless Evans/Watkins/Mack/Clowney are sitting there!

[thebandit27]

Actually I undertook a rather painstaking effort to create a Draft Value Chart. Whether the guy is a 4 or 6 ,or whatever, he is compared to the spot he was drafted and assigned a different value. The difference between the two is the hit or miss. For example, a guy becomes a 10 value, say Tom Brady. But, as a late sixth rounder he may have a draft spot value of 1. He would then net a 9, well above the threshold set for a hit. Same thing the other way for a miss. Hope this clears things up. It is a too involved process to explain entirely in this format.

 

It's still not entirely clear, so forgive me if this isn't accurate...

 

It sounds like a player that would otherwise be a 6 based on performance could potentially be downgraded to a 4 based on draft position? If so, then I'm not sure this tells us anything, as the data are wildly skewed in that case.

 

At any rate, although it's interesting, I agree that players need to be taken on a case-by-case basis. The 9 pick needs to be the best football player they can get; this is what the best teams do from year to year.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

It's still not entirely clear, so forgive me if this isn't accurate...

 

It sounds like a player that would otherwise be a 6 based on performance could potentially be downgraded to a 4 based on draft position? If so, then I'm not sure this tells us anything, as the data are wildly skewed in that case.

 

At any rate, although it's interesting, I agree that players need to be taken on a case-by-case basis. The 9 pick needs to be the best football player they can get; this is what the best teams do from year to year.

We are measuring a position against a draft spot. Therefore, what you need to know is, how much the guy produced, and how much he cost to draft at that spot. If all skill guys are drafted in the top ten and produce X, and all lineman are drafted in the top ten and produce X plus, who is more successful?

Edited April 12, 2014 by 75Bills

[Mr. WEO]

We are measuring a position against a draft spot. Therefore, what you need to know is, how much the guy produced, and how much he cost to draft at that spot. If all skill guys are drafted in the top ten and produce X, and all lineman are drafted in the top ten and produce X plus, who is more successful?

 

Exactly what are the O-lineman producing?

 

See my post above. Look at each draft year in the past ten.

[thewildrabbit]

I don't support the use of the #9 overall pick on Oline, that being said think people are forgetting in the elite linemen versus elite skill player discussion that 1 good plaer on the line doesn't make much of a difference. It's much more of a group position where you need 5 guys who work well together, have continuity and can pull there own weight, it shouldn't be (for example) Megatron vs. Okung it should be Megatron vs. Seattle's OL.

 

The Bills need a dominating OL, not necessarily a elite RT/RG. Those positions need to be addressed but to say an elite RT(no.9) versus an average one (rd2) makes a complete difference? No, you just can't be dragging dead weight(Legursky) a full season.

 

Gabe Jackson/Morgan Moses in the 2nd please, and trade down unless Evans/Watkins/Mack/Clowney are sitting there!

So many fans want a good O line, and yet don't want to waste valuable early draft picks on them.

 

The very first overall pick by last years super bowl winning HC in Pete Carroll was an OT in 2010, the #6 overall pick. Yea, the very same year that Chan Gailey and Buddy Nix took over the Buffalo Bills. While the Bills were drafting a RB they didn't need in Spiller (BPA)?, and were still very desperate for a LT because they never properly replaced Jason Peters from the 2009 trade.

 

However, the new Seahawks HC decided to build that O line first thing in 2010. Then the very next year the hawks drafted more O linemen with their first round, and second pick in 2011. Then in 2012 they drafted their QB in the third round in Russell Wilson.

 

How to build a super bowl team (Pete Carroll) vs how to build a toilet bowl team (Gailey, Nix). Now the same stuff with Whaley, Marrone all under Russ Brandon. I hope new ownership fires this entire staff of clueless morons, the sooner the better.

[K-9]

OLmen never have the impact on a game that elite QBs, WRs, or RBs have. Right up until a bad one allows your All Pro QB to get knocked on his ass and unable to hit the wide open Pro Bowl receiver for an easy six.

 

GO BILLS!!!