RunninRebel37 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 First off, I'd like to thank those of you that comment on TBD and make this forum an insightful website dedicated to the team we're all so passionate about. Also, I'm a long time reader but this is my first time posting a thread, so go easy. I think the organization is 100% behind EJ Manuel (as am I) and believe in building around him in order to help this team reach its goal of post-season success. With that said, I wanted to give my opinion of team needs (and when I say needs I mean positional depth as well as talent upgrade) and how they might be addressed. Here is a list of team needs in no particular order: -OL(G/T), LB, TE, WR, DB, RB, DE, Although Whaley and Marrone only have one offseason under their belts, I believe what they did last year and comments they've made up to this point are indicative that it's their strategy to build through the draft and plug holes with "dust settled" FA's. I personally believe theres a number of combinations they could use to build the roster with FA/Draft picks, but these are the most realistic options that fit their FA profile: FA OL: Michael Oher, Austin Howard, Ryan Harris, Jason Fox, Zach Strief, and Breno Giacomini are all RT that aren't expected to resign with their respective teams. Howard, Strief, and Giacomini are expected to command more than Buffalo (I think) is willing to pay for a RT, especially with so much depth in this draft, but Oher and Fox could come in and improve the position with a reasonable salary. Fox (DET) also has ties with Schwartz, which could help him sign with the Bills. The "name" OG this year is going to be Zane Beadles. Protecting Peyton helped him in his contract year and will be (possibly) sought after. Chad Rinehart, Oniel Cousins and Eben Britton are cheap options to bring in to compete for the guard positions. None are big name players, but are affordable options to at least get a look in training camp. An additional name to monitor is Garry Williams RG of the Carolina Panthers. I've never heard of him, but he was listed on pro football.com's list of UFA, and a blurb about him had him pegged as Carolina starting RG prior to an injury during their game with the Seahawks. FA LB: Whaley did a great job in getting steals at the LB position with signing Lawson, trading for Hughes, and drafting the DPOY (!@#$ Richardson) and I think he'll look to round out that group this year. While LB could be used with the 9th pick, theres a couple of FA to watch. Brandon Spikes, Jason Worilds, Joes Mays, Desmond Bishop are all expected to hit the open market. Spikes has ties to current Bills DL coach Pepper Johnson, and would be paired up with Kiko on the inside. While unlikely, he could come at a reasonable price given his limitations in nickel and pass situations. Joe Mays is similar to Spikes and could come cheaper and serve as depth. Bishop is coming off and ACL, but has versatility in both 3-4/4-3 schemes and DC Schwartz would be familiar with his tape from his NFC north days. Jason Worilds would be a great fit, but his salary demands may be too much given the money Buffalo has tied up in the position already (Mario now and Alonso in the future). My FA shocker is Buffalo will sign Worilds to start opposite Lawson, freeing up the 9th pick to help EJ. FA TE: Buffalo claimed Tony Moeaki last season, along with drafting Chris Gragg. Coach Marrone also recently stated that he'd like to resign Chandler (http://www.rotoworld.../scott-chandler) , which shouldn't be too difficult at an affordable rate. With the current TE on the roster I don't see them looking in the FA stable of TE, especially given the talented pass catchers in the draft. I do however, see Buffalo letting the market set the values of Chandler and Brandon Pettigrew, and signing the latter if their price tags are similar. FA WR: There are a bunch of FA wide receivers this year, making their open market value diminished. Emmanuel Sanders, Kenny Britt, Hakeem Nicks, James Jones, and Andre Roberts are names to watch. With the money tied up by Stevie Johnson's (well deserved) contract, (He's easily the best receiver on the team, is a great leader, and will bounce back this upcoming season. Why people even THINK he should or would be cut is crazy to me) signing a "name" WR might be out of the question, although players like Britt and Nicks may be met with a soft market and signed at a reasonable rate. My gut feeling is the only way one of them is signed is if the FO feels they will be able to contribute sooner to EJ's development than a high round rookie. I think Nicks would be a quality signing. Either way TJ Graham is on notice. FA DB: The obvious is resign our all star talent Jarius Byrd. Hopefully this happens. Buffalo also spent two mid round picks on a pair of Safeties last year, so I'm sure this will factor into their decision making. If not, there are a couple options that would be able to contribute and fill the void. Louis Delmas, Malcolm Jenkins at FS and Antoine Cason, Chris Cook CB depth. Both Cason and Cook are tall/lean DB's with press coverage ability/experience and could be had at a reasonable salary. You can never have too many DB's. Louis Delmas has ties with our DC and finally played a full 16 games last season. He wouldn't be cheap, but could attempt to fill the void Byrd may leave admirably. Malcolm Jenkins is a solid mid field player, lacks some of the range, but could be had for less than Delmas. I don't see either being signed unfortunately. FA RB: None. I don't know enough about what RB's are going to be FA's and don't anticipate any being signed (other than camp bodies). This will be addressed either late round of the draft, or UDFA. FA DL: This is the Bills strongest unit, but also their most aged. The Bills have a pair of reserve guys that showed some flashes (from what I saw anyway) in Bryant and Charles. I see this position being addressed via the draft. Although they resigned Branch, getting Carrington under contract would be a huge boost to a strong unit. Given his limited tape and recent injury, id imagine his market being pretty soft and him being able to get resigned. Rotoworld.com suggests he may follow former DC Pettine to Cleveland. I find this hard to believe given the Browns talent, depth, and money invested into their d-line. Aside from the big name players, I don't know enough about the others available to say much, although it would be interesting to get a guy like Terrance Cody in as a two down run stuffer. He's been considered a bust in Baltimore but maybe a change of scenery would do him good. In conclusion, I (realistically) see FA happening like this: -Re-sign Byrd to multi-year deal -Re-sign Carrington 1 year deal -Sign Worilds to multi-year deal -Sign mid-level LG 2-3 year deal (Britton/Williams) -CUT RT Pears *Possibly sign RT after 2nd tier players get deals* With FA out of the way, I see the draft ideally playing out like this (Im not some draft guru or anything like that, just a gut feeling): 1.WR/TE (best available playmaker at each respective position on the clock) 2.LB 3.RT 4.WR/TE(whichever wasn't taken) 5.DT/DE 6.ST(either LB or DB to help on special teams) 7.ST(see above) Well there you have it. All this will change taking into consideration franchise tags, FA that are re-signed prior to hitting the open market and of course the combine changing draft stocks. Please comment your opinion in my findings and as always, GO BILLS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Welcome to the board!! With that depth and thought you will be a welcome addition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Armchair GM Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Great first post home skillet! Insightful, well written and best of all, REALISTIC! Welcome to TBD! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPS Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 There hasn't been much news on CArrington, and I've been wondering... I wondered if Pettine would have an interest? It will be interesting to see what happens if AC hits the market, and what Pettine/Clev do? Hopefully the Bills will sign him before that happens (1 year as you suggest). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle flap Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Nice post, Mr. Rebel! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yungmack Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Excellent analysis. Keep posting. BTW, are you a UNLV alumnus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan1959 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 (edited) I truly believe this team's greatest needs at the moment are along the offensive line (in particular, LG and RT) and ILB with strong run stopping abilities. Next on the list for me is either a true #1 receiver or TE with real game changing ability. I think there are some strong candidates for OL in free agency and I hope the bills begin to address it there. I am not a big fan of going the route of paying big money to top free agents. I prefer signing strong 2nd and 3rd tier free agents that tend to bring more value for the money. With that said, I wouldn't be opposed to paying reasonable money for a top tier guy if available. As far as the draft, a lot depends on what the team does in free agency. I have always viewed top 10 picks as the potential to take an impact player (someone who can come in now and be a difference maker) at a position of need. The real question for me is what "impact player" at a position of need would have the greatest impact on the team as a whole? A stud, run stuffing linebacker would go a long way in helping to field a "complete" playoff caliber defense. A true #1 receiver or playmaking TE could really open up the passing game, in turn, helping a young QB, as well as the running game. Offensive line is interesting as far as the #9 pick. I am not a fan of choosing a guard that high in the draft. I have no problem (philosophy wise) choosing a tackle at that position. In looking at the offensive side of the ball, I truly believe the weakness of the offensive line impacted the team's offensive abilities more than the play of any particular skill position player. I group offensive line players into a whole, because it is the line "as a whole" that makes a real difference. One weak link can be incredibly detrimental. Two or more weak links can be catastrophic. A strong, playoff caliber, offensive line can directly improve the play of all skill positions. One or two top caliber linemen (probably a LG and RT) could make this line a top caliber unit - and directly improve the play of the offensive line as a whole. Very rarely can one or two skill position players directly improve offensive line play, compensate for poor offensive line play (most teams do not have the luxury of a Russell Wilson, whose strength is, arguably, his ability to compensate for poor line play), or improve the overall play of the offense to playoff level (Players like Brady, Manning, Brees, Rogers are rare). I am still a firm believer that most championship teams begin with strong defensive and offensive lines. A few teams may find that one superstar skill player that can compensate for poor line play - most do not. I think we have a playoff caliber defensive line. The offensive line is not. So, for me, free agency and the draft (in the 1st round or any other round) need to be (in order of importance): (1) First and foremost about building that offensive line into the strength that it should be. (2) Finding a LB with real run stuffing ability (3) A true #1 receiver or playmaking TE (preferably both) A strong offensive line would be this team's greatest step toward giving EJ the best chance possible to show this year that he is "the guy." Oh yeah, and please sign Byrd.... Edited February 21, 2014 by billsfan1959 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boyst Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 For the price. If available I'd take ILB Smith over any of the ILB's available. At 32 he is older then most but more then just a stop gap player. A solid ILB in most regards could also run in 3-4 packages as a true Mike allowing what you see in my sig line below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RunninRebel37 Posted February 22, 2014 Author Share Posted February 22, 2014 Excellent analysis. Keep posting. BTW, are you a UNLV alumnus? Thank you, and Yessir! Scarlet Grey All Day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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