PolishDave Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 (edited) I propose a new rating scale to measure how good a unit is. Here is how I propose it should work. It would be a points based scale. Points are awarded based on where a drive begins on the field and the results of those drives. All points stop accumulating once you reach 5 minutes left in the game because too many game plan decisions are severely altered based on the score at that point in the game which ultimately skews the stats for that game. Defense Scale Drive ends in turnover returned for touchdown = 6 points Drive ends in safety = 5 points Drive ends in turnover or turnover on downs = 4 points Offense starts drive on their own side of 50 and is forced to punt = 2 points Offense starts drive on your side of 50 and is forced to punt = 3 points Offense starts drive on your side of 50 and attempts field goal = 1 point Bonus 1 point for causing offense to go 3 and out. Bonus ½ point for a tackle resulting in 1 yard loss or more (includes sacks). Offense Scale Drive starts own side of 50 and ends in touchdown = 4 points Drive starts opponents side of 50 and ends in touchdown = 3 points Drive starts own side of 50 and ends in field goal attempt= 2 points Drive starts opponents side of 50 and ends in field goal attempt = 1 point Bonus point for converting 4th down into first down= 1 point I view football games as a series of small battles from drive to drive depending on where the possession begins and whether the possession ended in points, punts or turnovers. My biggest beef with the stats that normally get measured in a game is that they don’t tell the story about what happened during each drive. And whether or not a team really did well on any given drive is really more relevant to where that drive started from. Isn't it? I think there should be a better system in place for measuring how good an offense really is and how good a defense really is. I think a system similar to this would provide a better frame of reference for just how good a unit is. I think it would be much improved over measuring things like total yards passing, total yards rushing, etc. Wouldn't a system similar to this be a better way for comparing how good one defensive unit is compared to another team’s and how good one offensive unit is compared to another team’s? Edited January 2, 2014 by PolishDave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prickly Pete Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 (edited) Leaves out WHEN scores are allowed, or made, and that is crucial. I just watch the games, and make my own decisions. It's really the only way to get a true feel for what is going on. The stats are nice for bickering with fellow fans, but I hope coaches base their opinions on WATCHING. Edited January 2, 2014 by Marauder'sMicro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PolishDave Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Leaves out WHEN scores are allowed, or made, and that is crucial. I don't understand what you mean here. Could you clarify please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChan Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Call ESPN. Seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 (edited) They already have advanced metrics that do this based on the success or failure of each play, namely DVOA at football outsiders Edited January 2, 2014 by matter2003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Optometric Insight Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 (edited) I like it, but how come you can't lose points (Turnover for Offense = -3 points, TD Allowed for Defense = -6)? This seems like a crucial part that should be accounted for to show a realistic point total, eh? Otherwise the total would be rather high even though the offense had a turnover 2 out of 8 drives. Edited January 2, 2014 by Teen Insight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prickly Pete Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I don't understand what you mean here. Could you clarify please? What the circumstances are in the game. Is the team scoring, down by 20 at the end of blowout. Is the team defending a a 20 point lead in a Prevent defense for the last 5 minutes of a game. There are many more variables...time of possession. is the offense a quick No-Huddle that sucks, and put it's defense quickly back out on the field repeatedly? Some teams play in better divisions, against great QB's. tougher opponents. Dome teams often have more wide open offenses, so there are higher scoring affairs...it goes on and on. Each game is different, and has it's own circumstances. I don't believe in stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PolishDave Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 They already have advanced metrics that do this based on the success or failure of each play, namely DVOA at football outsiders Yeah that DVOA is interesting and far more advanced, but it measures more play by play rather than total drive statistics. Right? I like it, but how come you can't lose points (Turnover for Offense = -3 points, TD Allowed for Defense = -6)? This seems like a crucial part that should be accounted for to show a realistic point total, eh? Otherwise the total would be rather high even though the offense had a turnover 2 out of 8 drives. I thought about that. But the turnovers are accounted for in the scoring of the defense. The defense gets points for making the play. The offense gets zero points on that drive because they didn't execute on it properly. I guess you could take points away from an offense for a turnover too. I am kind of torn on the idea. It might make sense your way. What the circumstances are in the game. Is the team scoring, down by 20 at the end of blowout. Is the team defending a a 20 point lead in a Prevent defense for the last 5 minutes of a game. There are many more variables...time of possession. is the offense a quick No-Huddle that sucks, and put it's defense quickly back out on the field repeatedly? Some teams play in better divisions, against great QB's. tougher opponents. Dome teams often have more wide open offenses, so there are higher scoring affairs...it goes on and on. Each game is different, and has it's own circumstances. I don't believe in stats. I gotcha. Yes there are other stats that are worth measuring besides these and other things to consider. Just thought this was a more efficient way of looking at how each unit executes on each drive in the game. Drive outcomes in the last 5 minutes of each game are dropped for the reason you stated. This analysis is more for determining things like power rankings for how good an offense is or how good a defense is compared to other teams in the league. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prickly Pete Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Yeah that DVOA is interesting and far more advanced, but it measures more play by play rather than total drive statistics. Right? I thought about that. But the turnovers are accounted for in the scoring of the defense. The defense gets points for making the play. The offense gets zero points on that drive because they didn't execute on it properly. I guess you could take points away from an offense for a turnover too. I am kind of torn on the idea. It might make sense your way. I gotcha. Yes there are other stats that are worth measuring besides these and other things to consider. Just thought this was a more efficient way of looking at how each unit executes on each drive in the game. Drive outcomes in the last 5 minutes of each game are dropped for the reason you stated. This analysis is more for determining things like power rankings for how good an offense is or how good a defense is compared to other teams in the league. I like some of your ideas there. I think some conclusions can be reached with some stats, too. It's just that watching the games seems to be the only way to really get a good idea what's happening. Like the Justin Rogers games. An offense can pick on a one guy that's in for an injured player, and completely ruin an otherwise decent defense. Some would say "well, that guy is part of the defense", but it doesn't point to the solution. In that case, the solution is "Better Depth at CB", not "Need new DC" or "Need a first round CB". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Optometric Insight Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Nothing competes with watching the actual game, unfortunately nobody can do that. Using the different statistical systems out there is the only way to get a grasp of what happens in each game and this could be another system used by sports networks to better inform the public. Are you planning on actually applying this system next season for the Bills, PD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PolishDave Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Are you planning on actually applying this system next season for the Bills? No. I am going to patent the idea and the sell it to sports book in Las Vegas......lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malazan Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 It seems like a great system, but the proof in in the pudding. Where do the this year's NFL defenses rank under your system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBill Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I like the idea but the philosophical order for defense needs to be: Anytime the defense scores points Anytime the defense gets a take-away Anytime the defense forces the other team out before they score Anytime the defense holds a team deep on the field giving the offense field position advantage Allow for fg and not td Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Bills D finished #1 in yards allowed per drive even though they faced the most drives in the NFL and forced teams into 3rd downs more than any other team in the NFL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjmac Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 How about we just rank them in the number of points scored and the number of points allowed? In the end, they are the only stats that count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prickly Pete Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 (edited) How about we just rank them in the number of points scored and the number of points allowed? In the end, they are the only stats that count. Not really. If you are going to be a "bottom line kind of guy", the only stats that count are wins and losses. The idea behind stats to me, is to get an idea about where and how to improve your team's performance. Merely looking at points scored/allowed doesn't really zero in on how to identify problems. Edited January 2, 2014 by Marauder'sMicro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjmac Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Not really. If you are going to be a "bottom line kind of guy", the only stats that count are wins and losses. The idea behind stats to me, is to get an idea about where and how to improve your team's performance. Merely looking at points scored/allowed doesn't really zero in on how to identify problems. No, wins and losses indicate how good a team is as a whole. An offense is as good as the number of points it scores; a defense is as good as the number of points it allows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prickly Pete Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 No, wins and losses indicate how good a team is as a whole. An offense is as good as the number of points it scores; a defense is as good as the number of points it allows. I've out-bottom lined you. Feels great to be the ultimate Bottom Line Guy. "That's the bottom line..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CardinalScotts Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 its just like rankings...chiefs great D, Good O totally schedule driven out of playoffs week 1- AND EVERYONE KNOWS IT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdand12 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 (edited) Not really. If you are going to be a "bottom line kind of guy", the only stats that count are wins and losses. The idea behind stats to me, is to get an idea about where and how to improve your team's performance. Merely looking at points scored/allowed doesn't really zero in on how to identify problems. thats when analytics kick in .if processed well. thats when analytics kick in . if processed well. the bottom line is actually basic.Do we stay on as Bills fans ? If we dont then none of this conjecture matters one pinch. Edited January 3, 2014 by 3rdand12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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