If the last 6 games are a continuation of The EJ Experiment...

[alias]

I believe that you have a faulty premise. This is not an "experiment". EJ Manuel is the starting QB of the Buffalo Bills and will be for the foreseeable future. He is a rookie and will have bad games like yesterday. He is also capable of leading a fourth quarter comeback like he did earlier this season. I understand that patience is in short supply on this forum, but I find the topic of this thread absolutely ridiculous.

 

The topic of this thread is not the short supply of patience on this board, but whether or not the other 52 players have the patience to watch their careers dwindle away while we ascertain whether the 53rd sucks a lot or just a little.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

I keep waiting for EJ to even show glimmers of greatness. Not happening.

 

The patriots game is all I've got left. Man he looked good in that game. I think he was just playing football and not worried about making mistakes, doing too much or aiming perfect throws.

[J-Bo]

But, but, he's their guy.

 

Maybe this coaching staff and Marrone don't know what they're doing either.

 

Already in year 1 of a rebuild it's looking more and more every week like we've been sold another bill of goods.

 

The interesting thing is that this info was out there before he was drafted. Didn't the team see it, or did they ignore it thinking that they were brighter than everyone else.

Peyton Manning's rookie year was abysmal too! I don't think everyone was saying they were sold a bill of goods and that he should be thrown out in the trash. Not saying that EJ is going to be a Manning, but you can't give up on the guy yet...just sayin'.

[cale]

Peyton Manning's rookie year was abysmal too! I don't think everyone was saying they were sold a bill of goods and that he should be thrown out in the trash. Not saying that EJ is going to be a Manning, but you can't give up on the guy yet...just sayin'.

 

C'mon man. This is a laughable comparison. I agree with your point about this being too early to throw out the baby with the bathwater, but Manning had an incredible body of work heading into the draft. The best anyone can say about EJ is that he has "a presence about him." He was a good QB in college, no doubt. But I respectfully submit that Geno Smith had a better history.

 

C

[Orton's Arm]

I believe that you have a faulty premise. This is not an "experiment". EJ Manuel is the starting QB of the Buffalo Bills and will be for the foreseeable future. He is a rookie and will have bad games like yesterday. He is also capable of leading a fourth quarter comeback like he did earlier this season. I understand that patience is in short supply on this forum, but I find the topic of this thread absolutely ridiculous.

 

> I believe that you have a faulty premise. This is not an "experiment". EJ Manuel is the starting QB of

> the Buffalo Bills and will be for the foreseeable future.

 

The OP's premise is not faulty. EJ Manuel has done precisely nothing at the NFL level which would suggest he's the long-term answer at quarterback. The Bills' hypothesis is that, based on what Manuel did in college, he can eventually develop into someone who deserves to be the long-term starter. They are now in the process of testing that hypothesis. They are conducting an experiment.

 

With the 8th overall pick, the Bills chose to trade down to 16th overall, knowing full well that the Jets had the 9th and 13th overall picks and a gaping hole at QB. The Bills were obviously confident the Jets wouldn't take him. They were also confident no other QB-needy team would trade up to some slot before 16th overall to take him. If NFL GMs were confident that Manuel would grow into a top-10 QB, he would have been long gone by 16th overall.

 

That alone doesn't prove anything. Aaron Rodgers was taken 24th overall. Drew Brees was taken 32nd overall. QBs can have careers which greatly exceed the expectations associated with their draft positions.

 

In college, Brees and Rodgers were better known as pocket passers and for their ability to quickly assimilate information than they were for their physical gifts. That's not something which can be said of Manuel.

 

The Bills are conducting an experiment to see if Manuel's critics were wrong in their assessment of him. If the null hypothesis is that Manuel will be a failure, there has been no evidence at the NFL level which would disprove--or even cause us to question--the null. The Bills need to keep that fact firmly in mind when deciding whether to use a first round pick on a QB in the 2014 draft.

Edited November 11, 2013 by Edwards' Arm

[J-Bo]

C'mon man. This is a laughable comparison. I agree with your point about this being too early to throw out the baby with the bathwater, but Manning had an incredible body of work heading into the draft. The best anyone can say about EJ is that he has "a presence about him." He was a good QB in college, no doubt. But I respectfully submit that Geno Smith had a better history.

 

C

Wasn't comparing to Manning, just the facts about their rookie years. For the record, I do not believe E.J, or anyone for that matter, will ever be able to hold a candle to the way Manning is in control, is prepared, and can read a D, not to mention his throwing accuracy. Just saying we can't possibly give up on EJ this far into his rookie year! That being said, the organization better prepare for the contingency that he does not progress through this year and into early next...

[Boatdrinks]

>

 

The Bills are conducting an experiment to see if Manuel's critics were wrong in their assessment of him. If the null hypothesis is that Manuel will be a failure, there has been no evidence at the NFL level which would disprove--or even cause us to question--the null. The Bills need to keep that fact firmly in mind when deciding whether to use a first round pick on a QB in the 2014 draft.

 

It's laughable to believe that an NFL team would draft a player for the purpose of conducting an experiment to see if others were wrong. Talk about your grassy knoll theories. The Bills needed a QB. They liked EJM better than Smith. Perhaps it was because Marrone had beaten Smith twice w/ an inferior QB. Whatever, they liked one guy better. They didn't want to wait until round 2, as that is where there is value and some other team may make a move. They moved down, smartly for another pick in the value round. This was a good strategy as their need was not where the value was in round one. Hard to argue with that. They still had their choice of QB's available. But to believe an NFL team would spend millions to conduct some "experiment" is crazy. Perhaps all draft picks are an experiment by that notion, but teams have their own needs and interests and are probably not interested in proving anyone wrong. They just want to be right.

 

The topic of this thread is not the short supply of patience on this board, but whether or not the other 52 players have the patience to watch their careers dwindle away while we ascertain whether the 53rd sucks a lot or just a little.

 

I would argue than EJM is closer to the 1st man on this roster than the 53rd. He's the starting QB. A lot bigger need to find out about him for the future of the franchise than some ST's guy or the 5th WR. I doubt an NFL team is too worried about other players patience.

[Orton's Arm]

 

 

It's laughable to believe that an NFL team would draft a player for the purpose of conducting an experiment to see if others were wrong. Talk about your grassy knoll theories. The Bills needed a QB. They liked EJM better than Smith. Perhaps it was because Marrone had beaten Smith twice w/ an inferior QB. Whatever, they liked one guy better. They didn't want to wait until round 2, as that is where there is value and some other team may make a move. They moved down, smartly for another pick in the value round. This was a good strategy as their need was not where the value was in round one. Hard to argue with that. They still had their choice of QB's available. But to believe an NFL team would spend millions to conduct some "experiment" is crazy. Perhaps all draft picks are an experiment by that notion, but teams have their own needs and interests and are probably not interested in proving anyone wrong. They just want to be right.

 

 

 

I would argue than EJM is closer to the 1st man on this roster than the 53rd. He's the starting QB. A lot bigger need to find out about him for the future of the franchise than some ST's guy or the 5th WR. I doubt an NFL team is too worried about other players patience.

 

> It's laughable to believe that an NFL team would draft a player for the purpose of conducting an experiment to see if others were wrong.

 

Wikipedia provides the following definition of an "experiment."

 

"An experiment is an orderly procedure carried out with the goal of verifying, refuting, or establishing the validity of a hypothesis."

 

In this case, the hypothesis being tested is that E.J. Manuel can become a top-12 QB. I'll fully grant that the reason for this experiment isn't because of detached scientific curiosity. The situation is more analogous to a drowning man grabbing onto something to see if doing so will keep him afloat. The drowning man has a very strong vested interest in the experiment being successful; just as the Bills have a strong vested interest in the Manuel experiment working.

 

The reason the word "experiment" is important is because right now, no one--not the Bills, not anyone here on these boards, not anyone--knows that Manuel will ever become a better QB than Losman or Edwards. (At the moment, he is not better than either of those two.) Anyone who acts like he knows Manuel will ultimately succeed is deluding himself. Yes, by my definition, you could (and probably should) argue that all draft picks are experiments. But the Manuel selection was, at best, an extremely risky experiment. At worst, it was an ill-advised move done by a team desperate to grasp at anything; whose eagerness to find a QB blinded it to some fairly obvious warning signs.

 

> They moved down, smartly for another pick in the value round.

 

Believe me, I'm much happier with Manuel at 16th overall, + Kiko, than I would be with Manuel at 8th overall and no Kiko. The point I was making in my earlier post was that if Manuel was an Andrew Luck-type prospect, or anywhere close, the Bills would have correctly concluded that if they'd traded down to 16th, they would lose him. The Bills' decision to trade down was an acknowledgement that other teams' GMs had serious concerns about him.

 

Manuel has great physical tools, and it's impossible to imagine GMs worrying about him failing due to lack of arm strength or foot speed. Normally QBs with great physical attributes tend to be over-drafted, because physical traits are so easy to measure. Off the top of my head, I can't think of a single QB with great physical traits who was drafted in the second round or later, who went on to perform at a first round level. Franchise QBs who fell to later rounds tended to have physical limitations. Joe Montana didn't have the world's strongest arm. Tom Brady lost a foot race to Drew Bledsoe. The combination of a QB with great physical traits + all the other stuff you'd want a QB to have is very salivating to GMs. So much so that they usually give the benefit of the doubt to a guy with good physical traits.

 

And yet the Bills were confident that Manuel would still be available at 16th overall.

 

Scouting reports described Manuel as "raw" or as a "project QB" who wasn't NFL-ready. Thus far we've seen the accuracy of those reports. Off the top of my head, I can't think of any first round QB described as "raw" who went on to become anything other than a bust.

 

I personally wouldn't have taken Manuel before the third or fourth round at most. But now that the Bills have invested a first round pick in him, it's their responsibility to see what they have or don't have in him. He should start all the remaining games this season if healthy. Even if the Bills take a first round QB in next year's draft--as I strongly hope they do--I'd still like for Manuel to be the full-time starter next year. That would give the rookie QB a year to sit and learn on the bench. It would also give the Bills a two year window with which to evaluate Manuel.

[Boatdrinks]

Yes, failing to draft a QB in previous years left them with a need at QB. They had a guy they liked and got him plus another pick. You may debate the wisdom of where he was picked, and I haven't heard anyone say they are SURE he will pan out. That would be delusional. The Bills will NOT take a first round QB in 2014. Thinking that they will right now is delusional. If EJM makes no progress or is seriously injured, that could change. As it stands right now a QB before round 4 in 2014 draft would be a major surprise. I could see a developmental type guy taken there, as Lewis/Tuel were not really part of the original plan.

[Tcali]

The topic of this thread is not the short supply of patience on this board, but whether or not the other 52 players have the patience to watch their careers dwindle away while we ascertain whether the 53rd sucks a lot or just a little.

 

man that is so right on. nfl careers are short

 

Yes, failing to draft a QB in previous years left them with a need at QB. They had a guy they liked and got him plus another pick. You may debate the wisdom of where he was picked, and I haven't heard anyone say they are SURE he will pan out. That would be delusional. The Bills will NOT take a first round QB in 2014. Thinking that they will right now is delusional. If EJM makes no progress or is seriously injured, that could change. As it stands right now a QB before round 4 in 2014 draft would be a major surprise. I could see a developmental type guy taken there, as Lewis/Tuel were not really part of the original plan.

either u r delusional or a member of bills mgmt--or both.

[Prickly Pete]

Yes, failing to draft a QB in previous years left them with a need at QB. They had a guy they liked and got him plus another pick. You may debate the wisdom of where he was picked, and I haven't heard anyone say they are SURE he will pan out. That would be delusional. The Bills will NOT take a first round QB in 2014. Thinking that they will right now is delusional. If EJM makes no progress or is seriously injured, that could change. As it stands right now a QB before round 4 in 2014 draft would be a major surprise. I could see a developmental type guy taken there, as Lewis/Tuel were not really part of the original plan.

 

This is what some are concerned about, and why a high pick (especially with the new rookie pay scale) on another QB is being discussed. I don't expect them to do it (I think they will bring in a vet), but that doesn't mean I don't think 3 years from now, they will wish they had.

 

Having 2 good young QB's isn't such a bad dilemma.

Edited November 12, 2013 by Marauder'sMicro

[Boatdrinks]

man that is so right on. nfl careers are short

 

 

either u r delusional or a member of bills mgmt--or both.

 

I'm not delusional. I don't know if EJM will be the guy. I do know there is not much precedent for NFL teams taking back to back 1st round QB's, so I prefer to focus on what the Bills will realistically do rather than dream about fantasy draft scenarios that don't happen in the real world.

 

This is what some are concerned about, and why a high pick (especially with the new rookie pay scale) on another QB is being discussed. I don't expect them to do it (I think they will bring in a vet), but that doesn't mean I don't think 3 years from now, they will wish they had.

 

Having 2 good young QB's isn't such a bad dilemma.

 

Why does everyone think the new rookie pay scale is something akin to the federal minimum wage? I think Bradford was the last 1st round QB with the old scale, and Newton got roughly half what he did. Still an a$$load of dough, and would throw your cap out of whack, besides divide a locker room and all those other reasons why it is against NFL culture. Throw in the fact you're barely allowed any practice time and you will likely not have 2 good young QB's. You will have one good QB and untradeable commodity that NFL teams will just wait for you to cut. You need to establish one QB as the guy. If EJM doesn't pan out in a couple seasons, the Bills will then pick another QB. 2014 for a QB pick is extremely unlikely for the Bills, at least before the middle rounds.

[Jkgobills]

 

 

 

 

Why does everyone think the new rookie pay scale is something akin to the federal minimum wage? I think Bradford was the last 1st round QB with the old scale, and Newton got roughly half what he did. Still an a$$load of dough, and would throw your cap out of whack, besides divide a locker room and all those other reasons why it is against NFL culture. Throw in the fact you're barely allowed any practice time and you will likely not have 2 good young QB's. You will have one good QB and untradeable commodity that NFL teams will just wait for you to cut. You need to establish one QB as the guy. If EJM doesn't pan out in a couple seasons, the Bills will then pick another QB. 2014 for a QB pick is extremely unlikely for the Bills, at least before the middle rounds.

 

 

The investment in first round picks in regards to compensation is not what it once was. This allows teams to better recover from mistakes made drafting players. Your concern for developing 2 young QBs in regards to limited practice time is a good point. However, it should not prevent the Bills from drafting QBs early until they find their guy. Nothing about EJ in college or so far at the NFL level indicate that he will be a top 10 NFL QB. He has lots of time and opportunity left this season to prove that he is a top talent. Lets hope he does, but many of us have doubts.

 

Should he not make significant strides over the next 6 games, the Bills would be foolish not to take another QB early in the draft. The Bills (or any NFL team) can't win without a franchise QB. The other pieces of the team that have been assembled, and are in place can't and won't wait for 2-3 seasons to determine if EJ is the answer.

[Boatdrinks]

The investment in first round picks in regards to compensation is not what it once was. This allows teams to better recover from mistakes made drafting players. Your concern for developing 2 young QBs in regards to limited practice time is a good point. However, it should not prevent the Bills from drafting QBs early until they find their guy. Nothing about EJ in college or so far at the NFL level indicate that he will be a top 10 NFL QB. He has lots of time and opportunity left this season to prove that he is a top talent. Lets hope he does, but many of us have doubts.

 

Should he not make significant strides over the next 6 games, the Bills would be foolish not to take another QB early in the draft. The Bills (or any NFL team) can't win without a franchise QB. The other pieces of the team that have been assembled, and are in place can't and won't wait for 2-3 seasons to determine if EJ is the answer.

 

 

Mistakes may not set you back 8 years anymore,(more like 4) but it is costly enough, added to the "opportunity cost " of not drafting a player at another position of need, that teams will not draft QB's in back to back seasons with high picks. You may feel the Bills would be foolish not to, but I contend there is no evidence of NFL teams doing this. EJM has only 6 games to show what he can do and missed 4 valuable starts. Thinking of the next QB the Bills will draft may be fun and all, but logic and NFL history shows that these thoughts, short of major injury or absolutely no progress, are a pointless exercise. Players are under contract and have no choice until they become FA's

[Orton's Arm]

 

 

 

The investment in first round picks in regards to compensation is not what it once was. This allows teams to better recover from mistakes made drafting players. Your concern for developing 2 young QBs in regards to limited practice time is a good point. However, it should not prevent the Bills from drafting QBs early until they find their guy. Nothing about EJ in college or so far at the NFL level indicate that he will be a top 10 NFL QB. He has lots of time and opportunity left this season to prove that he is a top talent. Lets hope he does, but many of us have doubts.

 

Should he not make significant strides over the next 6 games, the Bills would be foolish not to take another QB early in the draft. The Bills (or any NFL team) can't win without a franchise QB. The other pieces of the team that have been assembled, and are in place can't and won't wait for 2-3 seasons to determine if EJ is the answer.

 

Good post!

 

Unfortunately, there's a difference between what the Bills should do, and what they will do. If there's a good QB available when the Bills pick, or even an opportunity to trade up for a good QB, the absolute, hands-down correct decision is to take that good QB. There's not a shred of doubt about that.

 

This franchise has a long and sad history of outright ineptitude. During the last 40 years, the Bills have used 25% of their first picks of the draft on RBs, another 25% on DBs; and only 5% on QBs (Rob Johnson and EJ Manuel). With Spiller having a disappointing season and Fred Jackson getting up there in age, I think it's much more likely for us to take yet another RB in the first round--or perhaps a DB--than it is to take a QB.

 

"It would be stupid to take a DB or RB when we need a QB," you might say, and you'd be right. But the Bills have a long track record of making exactly this kind of stupid decision. Moreover, it's highly likely that the same mistaken thought process which led the Bills to take Manuel in the first place will also cause them to eschew first round QB prospects in 2014, on the theory that Manuel deserves a chance to "develop."

 

Development time for a QB is a very precious commodity. Yes, it's absolutely necessary to invest development time into the right QB prospect--or at least into a guy who's likely to be the right QB prospect. Personally, I don't think Manuel proved enough in college--in terms of making multiple reads, throwing into tight coverage, etc.--to have earned very much of that precious commodity. Obviously the Bills felt differently, which is why they invested a first round pick into the guy. I would love for them to realize their mistake after one year; especially if we get a top-10 pick in the 2014 draft. But it's more likely that it will take them 2 - 3 years to recognize they made an error and begin taking steps to correct it.

[Keukasmallies]

We're all just so smart, insightful, and NFL savvy that I can't understand why we don't pool our $ and get hold of an NFL team of our own: Super Bowl in a year or two, new stadium the year after that, sky's the limit as I see it.

[Rob's House]

 

 

 

Mistakes may not set you back 8 years anymore,(more like 4) but it is costly enough, added to the "opportunity cost " of not drafting a player at another position of need, that teams will not draft QB's in back to back seasons with high picks. You may feel the Bills would be foolish not to, but I contend there is no evidence of NFL teams doing this. EJM has only 6 games to show what he can do and missed 4 valuable starts. Thinking of the next QB the Bills will draft may be fun and all, but logic and NFL history shows that these thoughts, short of major injury or absolutely no progress, are a pointless exercise. Players are under contract and have no choice until they become FA's

I don't follow your logic here. Why would it set you back 4 years? Seems to me you'd only be set back the number of years you invest in him.

[BigBuff423]

> I believe that you have a faulty premise. This is not an "experiment". EJ Manuel is the starting QB of

> the Buffalo Bills and will be for the foreseeable future.

 

The OP's premise is not faulty. EJ Manuel has done precisely nothing at the NFL level which would suggest he's the long-term answer at quarterback. The Bills' hypothesis is that, based on what Manuel did in college, he can eventually develop into someone who deserves to be the long-term starter. They are now in the process of testing that hypothesis. They are conducting an experiment.

 

With the 8th overall pick, the Bills chose to trade down to 16th overall, knowing full well that the Jets had the 9th and 13th overall picks and a gaping hole at QB. The Bills were obviously confident the Jets wouldn't take him. They were also confident no other QB-needy team would trade up to some slot before 16th overall to take him. If NFL GMs were confident that Manuel would grow into a top-10 QB, he would have been long gone by 16th overall.

 

That alone doesn't prove anything. Aaron Rodgers was taken 24th overall. Drew Brees was taken 32nd overall. QBs can have careers which greatly exceed the expectations associated with their draft positions.

 

In college, Brees and Rodgers were better known as pocket passers and for their ability to quickly assimilate information than they were for their physical gifts. That's not something which can be said of Manuel.

 

The Bills are conducting an experiment to see if Manuel's critics were wrong in their assessment of him. If the null hypothesis is that Manuel will be a failure, there has been no evidence at the NFL level which would disprove--or even cause us to question--the null. The Bills need to keep that fact firmly in mind when deciding whether to use a first round pick on a QB in the 2014 draft.

 

Not that I disagree with taking a QB anywhere in the draft if the organization is convinced the man available IS the long-term answer, but in one breath you stated Rodgers and Brees as late 1st and 2nd round guys, not to mention the overstated Brady 6th round pick, or Montana 2nd round pick, or Dalton the 2nd round pick, etc and then say that the Bills need to keep such information in mind, as it correlates to EJ's season success or failure, when selecting in the 1st round...but as we can see 1st round is no guarantee..so, maybe more aptly stated is evaluating EJ to determine if he is IN FACT their QB of the future...not so much wait until the Draft...but you could argue either way, I just think it behooves the team to decide prior to Drafting

[Orton's Arm]

 

 

Not that I disagree with taking a QB anywhere in the draft if the organization is convinced the man available IS the long-term answer, but in one breath you stated Rodgers and Brees as late 1st and 2nd round guys, not to mention the overstated Brady 6th round pick, or Montana 2nd round pick, or Dalton the 2nd round pick, etc and then say that the Bills need to keep such information in mind, as it correlates to EJ's season success or failure, when selecting in the 1st round...but as we can see 1st round is no guarantee..so, maybe more aptly stated is evaluating EJ to determine if he is IN FACT their QB of the future...not so much wait until the Draft...but you could argue either way, I just think it behooves the team to decide prior to Drafting

 

Not that it's a big deal, but Montana was taken in the third round.

 

The point I was making earlier is that teams tend to under-value and under-draft good college pocket passers with limited physical tools (Brees, Brady, Montana, etc.) while overvaluing QBs with great physical gifts who'd never become polished pocket passers (Losman, Akili Smith, EJ Manuel). The other point I was making is that if QBs with great physical tools are typically overvalued and over-drafted, then the fact that Manuel was still available at 16th overall should be a serious concern. Guys who got rejected because of their limited physical tools can still have great careers, as Brees, Brady, Montana, and others have proved. But normally when a QB with great physical tools gets rejected, it's a very strong indication he's likely to fail.

[Boatdrinks]

Good post!

 

Unfortunately, there's a difference between what the Bills should do, and what they will do. If there's a good QB available when the Bills pick, or even an opportunity to trade up for a good QB, the absolute, hands-down correct decision is to take that good QB. There's not a shred of doubt about that.

 

O.K. professor , why is this not commonly done in the NFL if it is so absolute, the hands -down correct thing to do , without any shred of doubt? Why do teams not just give up on 1st round picks at QB and replace them after 1 season (or less in this case)?

 

I don't follow your logic here. Why would it set you back 4 years? Seems to me you'd only be set back the number of years you invest in him.

 

Say you invest 2 years of development time. Then you release said player. The balance of that contract will be dead money vs your cap the next season. You will have to re-do some deals or perhaps release a player, creating another hole to fill. Then you have to begin the process over again with the QB, meaning a couple years of development. Very few NFL QB's are good right away, or do not suffer a sophomore slump of some sort, etc. It usu. takes a few seasons to know if you have your guy. So yes, a failed QB in the first round will set you back about 4 years. It used to be much more, as it was about twice as many $$$