The 2013 Run Defense

[The Big Cat]

Gentlemen--I'm curious to see how this chart evolves. From watching the games, it seems like our run defense generates many, many, more negative, zero or one yard gains. I plotted the date through two games in 2013 and 2012 to see if this is the case, comparatively. So far, it is. Where we gave up the highest percentage of runs of three and four yards, now we've slid back to one and zero yards.

 

Again, only two games worth of data, so feel free to ignore until November. But an interesting snapshot, thus far.

 

GO BILLS!

 

[bladiebla]

cool thanks!

[l< j]

Can you give us the mean and median too?

[MarkyMannn]

Excel is a great thing. I would have reversed the value trend of the X axis LOL

 

The 2013 5's & 7's are higher though. It probably is a wash in the end

[The Big Cat]

Excel is a great thing. I would have reversed the value trend of the X axis LOL

 

The 2013 5's & 7's are higher though. It probably is a wash in the end

 

So are 20+'s

 

Again, we'll see how this evolves.

 

I also plan to .gif the evolution so we see how the trends go up and down as the season progresses...

[Matt in KC]

When you say you "plotted the date through two games in 2013 and 2012" do you mean all of 2012 or just the first two games last year as well? Did the first two games last year look much different than the whole of lsat year?

Edited September 16, 2013 by Matt in KC

[The Big Cat]

When you say you "plotted the date through two games in 2013 and 2012" do you mean all of 2012 or just the first two games last year as well? Did the first two games last year look much different than the whole of lsat year?

 

Just the first two games. Don't know yet.

[HeHateMe]

Nice, also maybe you could do a break off and group some together like:

 

< 3 Yards

3-10

10-15

15-20

20+

[The Big Cat]

Nice, also maybe you could do a break off and group some together like:

 

< 3 Yards

3-10

10-15

15-20

20+

 

I had done that originally, but it's hard to find a sensible grouping.

 

For example, if you have nine x three yard runs and a single nine yard run, then your 3-9 yards category doens't tell the whole story simply with the number 'ten.'

[The Big Cat]

I'll leave this here. I'm going to keep this as an ongoing thread, and while I've animated the chart, watching it toggle back and forth between only two data sets doesn't really "show" you much. So look at them, and consider whether or not this year's run defense is as bad as last year's.

 

 

[The Big Cat]

Does anyone still question whether or not the run defense is improved??

 

[The Big Cat]

Well, they're finally passing the eyes test. But here's how the numbers bear it out, compared to last year:

 

 

[Tintonfallsbillsfan]

The run defense has been steller in the first half of games. They are still solid in the second half but you have to chalk that up to fatigue. The Jet game being the prime example. When the entire secondary is back this d has a cance to be top ten. Holding cinncy under 20 this week seems like someting they are capable of.

[ganesh]

The run defense has been steller in the first half of games. They are still solid in the second half but you have to chalk that up to fatigue. The Jet game being the prime example. When the entire secondary is back this d has a cance to be top ten. Holding cinncy under 20 this week seems like someting they are capable of.

 

They would have to hold this Bengals defense to under 12-14 points for this anemic offense to score and win. I just don't see this offense capable of scoring 20+ points without EJ under Center.

[The Big Cat]

 

 

I think we're getting closer and closer to statistical relevance here. So, at a glance, here is a comparison of the most frequent yards gained:

 

2012

1. 3 (13.26%)
    
   
2. 2 (11.05%)
    
   
3. 1 (9.39%)
    
   
4. 4 (9.39%)
    
   
5. 0 (8.29%)
   

2013

1. 2 (16.3%)
    
   
2. 3 (13.04%)
    
   
3. 0 (12.5%)
    
   
4. 1 (11.4%)
    
   
5. 5 (9.78%)
   

In 2013, the defense has given up 3 yards or fewer on 60.87% of carries compared to 48.07% in 2012.

 

That's a BIG difference.

Edited October 16, 2013 by The Big Cat

[The Big Cat]

[The Big Cat]

 

Most frequent yards gained:

 

2012

1. THREE 12.8%
   
2. ONE 11.76%
   
3. TWO 10.5%
   
4. NEGATIVE 9.24%
   
5. FOUR 8.4%
   

2013

1. TWO 18.88%
   
2. THREE 12.02%
   
3. ZERO 11.59%
   
4. ONE 10.73%
   
5. FIVE 9.01%
   

[Dibs]

I really like your dedication to this BC but I think you should bracket the runs into categories. "negative-3 yards" "4-7 yards" "8-12 yards" "13-19 yards" "20+ yards" (or something similar). That way one can get a quick and clear look at how the years are comparing.

 

As an example, we see a big spike for 2013 on 2 yards.....but 1 yard and -1 yard are ahead for 2012. Grouping them together will show how the comparison is for "short yardage stops".

[Matt in KC]

I've been looking at the charts each time you update them, Big Cat, and really appreciate your efforts.

 

I like the detail, but agree with Dibs, in that when I look at it, that's the exercise I'm eyeballing to see what they mean (i.e. short-yardage vs. medium or long runs).

[The Big Cat]

I really like your dedication to this BC but I think you should bracket the runs into categories. "negative-3 yards" "4-7 yards" "8-12 yards" "13-19 yards" "20+ yards" (or something similar). That way one can get a quick and clear look at how the years are comparing.

 

As an example, we see a big spike for 2013 on 2 yards.....but 1 yard and -1 yard are ahead for 2012. Grouping them together will show how the comparison is for "short yardage stops".

I've been looking at the charts each time you update them, Big Cat, and really appreciate your efforts.

 

I like the detail, but agree with Dibs, in that when I look at it, that's the exercise I'm eyeballing to see what they mean (i.e. short-yardage vs. medium or long runs).

 

standby, gents