To put this in perspective......Christian Ponder was taken at #12

[dave mcbride]

Drew Brees was markedly worse than Ponder in the first two seasons that he started:

 

http://www.pro-footb.../B/BreeDr00.htm

 

http://www.pro-footb.../P/PondCh00.htm

 

Plus Brees had as good a running back as Adrian Peterson.

Edited April 23, 2013 by dave mcbride

[SactoBillFan]

Well in rebuttal, I would say that his play speaks for itself.

 

As a rookie you could excuse him being the 31st rated passer. This past season he was ranked 21st.

 

Fitz was 17th.

 

Stats aside, Ponder has not looked good when I've seen him.

 

But yes, Minny has not given any indication that I'm aware of that they're unhappy with him.

 

He looked alright against the 49ers.

[Kelly the Dog]

Drew Brees was markedly worse than Ponder in the first two seasons that he started:

 

http://www.pro-footb.../B/BreeDr00.htm

 

http://www.pro-footb.../P/PondCh00.htm

 

Plus Brees had as good a running back as Adrian Peterson.

I have long held that Brees just wasn't very good his first couple years in San Diego.

 

Brees very much impressed me in college though and Ponder never did. So as far as I'm concerned (which of course means nothing), two years into their career, Ponder was never good so there was little hope, and Brees was so there was at least some.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

FSU fans, tell me how Manuel compares to Ponder, not as a results-oriented player in college but as a pro prospect.

 

FWIW, I like Manuel as a prospect and wouldn't mind the Bills drafting him. I never wanted Ponder and think he is very average at best.

 

Ramius would know for sure.

 

He looked alright against the 49ers.

 

I didn't see that game.

 

I haven't written off Ponder's career and in fact I kinda liked him as a draft prospect.

 

I am however saying that in my eyes, he's been a bit disappointing so far.

[dave mcbride]

I have long held that Brees just wasn't very good his first couple years in San Diego.

 

Brees very much impressed me in college though and Ponder never did. So as far as I'm concerned (which of course means nothing), two years into their career, Ponder was never good so there was little hope, and Brees was so there was at least some.

I don't profess to know whether Ponder was any good in college. I know the Bills wanted to take him in the late first. I don't have proof, but I have a hunch that Modrak's firing was accelerated by his telling Andre Reed about our intent to get Ponder. Reed, as you'll recall, then foolishly broadcast our intention. I have to think the Bills were really pissed. The Vikes clearly drafted him earlier than anticipated because they realized he wouldn't be around later.

 

Nix's love of southern players should not be discounted in all of this. There is one constant throughout his GM career here: an overwhelming emphasis on drafting guys from the south, especially in the first four rounds. Consequently, I won't be surprised to see Manuel in a Bills uniform. He's attending the draft, so I suspect someone will take him.

Edited April 23, 2013 by dave mcbride

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Nix's love of southern players should not be discounted in all of this. There is one constant throughout his GM career here: an overwhelming emphasis on drafting guys from the south, especially in the first four rounds. Consequently, I won't be surprised to see Manuel in a Bills uniform. He's attending the draft, so I suspect someone will take him.

 

That is my one sliver of hope… that and Bruce Smith being EJ's Godfather.

[habes1280]

Why was 12 too high? I dont get these points of view. Ponder has become their starter...they got a starting QB at #12 and he has done a solid job and could continue to improve this year. Once the pads are on and you hit the field, where you were drafted becomes irrelevant. If they would have waited until the 2nd, they would not have gotten Ponder. So then where would they be? Maybe they would have drafted someone else who would have been a total bust...or went with a guy on their roster that would have not allowed them to even be competitive. Who knows...

 

As of right now, I don't think Minny regrets taking Ponder at 12 as he has shown some potential and they are looking to build around him not replace him. This isnt like before where they are stuck with him because of some absurd rookie contract like Russell or Sanchez got. The fact they want to add more players rather than look for a new QB says they are happy with his development...so I ask, how was taking him at 12 too high? The only people who care about where a guy "should" go are mock draft police who have less than 10% of the insight on the guy as a team studying him daily.

 

I can't speak for the front office, but as someone who lives in Minnesota and listens, begrudgingly, to both fans and local pundits on a daily basis, I can say that there is a LOT of regret among commentators and members of the fan base over the Ponder selection, most of whom still see QB as a need position. The Vikes offense certainly performed well enough last season, but that performance was largely on the shoulders of their league MVP running back. Ponder showed flashes of potential down the stretch, but that wasn't because there were entire GAMES where he took the team on his shoulders, it was because he made individual THROWS within those games that exceeded expectations. The fact that he's their starter is hardly evidence that they made the right call-- he's simply the best of what's around and they invested too much in him to turn the page just yet (see J.P. Losman). Don't be surprised if this time next year, the Vikings are sniffing around for better options.

 

The Bills are in a different situation entirely. They have a veteran on the roster who can take snaps if need be, and if the draft goes according to expectations, there won't be a QB spree early in the first round to force the front office's hand.

Edited April 23, 2013 by habes1280

[PromoTheRobot]

So what is the object of the game here? To draft a "starter" or draft a pro bowler?

 

My favorite whipping boy has been Sam Bradford. #1 pick. Franchise savior. The Andrew Luck of his draft class. The Rams are no better for it. He's a middling QB. If he were drafted in the 3rd round you'd say he worked out. But he was THE #1 PICK. Is he playing up to his pick? Not even close.

 

PTR

[Dragonborn10]

Two wrongs don't make a right...QB at #8 is wrong this year

[Ramius]

FSU fans, tell me how Manuel compares to Ponder, not as a results-oriented player in college but as a pro prospect.

 

FWIW, I like Manuel as a prospect and wouldn't mind the Bills drafting him. I never wanted Ponder and think he is very average at best.

 

I put some thoughts on this question in the EJ thread.

[Alphadawg7]

I can't speak for the front office, but as someone who lives in Minnesota and listens, begrudgingly, to both fans and local pundits on a daily basis, I can say that there is a LOT of regret among commentators and members of the fan base over the Ponder selection, most of whom still see QB as a need position. The Vikes offense certainly performed well enough last season, but that performance was largely on the shoulders of their league MVP running back. Ponder showed flashes of potential down the stretch, but that wasn't because there were entire GAMES where he took the team on his shoulders, it was because he made individual THROWS within those games that exceeded expectations. The fact that he's their starter is hardly evidence that they made the right call-- he's simply the best of what's around and they invested too much in him to turn the page just yet (see J.P. Losman). Don't be surprised if this time next year, the Vikings are sniffing around for better options.

 

The Bills are in a different situation entirely. They have a veteran on the roster who can take snaps if need be, and if the draft goes according to expectations, there won't be a QB spree early in the first round to force the front office's hand.

 

Thats just it, they havent invested that much in him. If they dont believe in him they could easily move on or draft a guy to compete with him. In fact, this year with the extra picks would be the ideal year to grab one. No one expects them too, they have shown no indication of having interest in another QB via FA or draft, and are adding weapons for him. To me, that is an endorsement in their long term belief in him. I have not claimed he has reached any certain level of expectation yet, just that I don't see the Vikes showing any signs of not backing the young QB. I mean, he's only played two seasons. Not all QB's come out of college and light the league on fire, in fact the over whelming majority dont. People have been spoiled with high expectations in recent years of guys like Newton, RG3, Luck, Wilson, etc that have had high early success. But that is still not the norm.

 

My only point was, taking a guy at 12 that arm chair mock draft police believe should go at 20 is not a mistake if you get your guy and he works out. Ponder and Locker still have lots of upside, shown improvement, helped their team win games and are still really early in their career. The idea you should not draft a guy at 12 or 10 or 8, etc just because some fools in the media and some fans made a mock draft of their meaningless opinion saying he shouldnt go until pick 20 or later is so absurd. If you want this guy and you firmly believe he wont last 32 more picks, then you take him. That simple.

 

As of now, I dont see Minny or Tenn panicking on their guys, only showing confidence in them and adding weapons to further their development. And neither team has too much invested in them and could bring competition in if they chose too. Like when SD took Rivers even though they had a young Brees. Brees hadnt shown enough to instill confidence and they used the 4th overall pick to acquire Rivers just 2 years after taking Brees first overall in the 2nd round.

 

This really wasnt a debate on how good or bad Ponder was, just on the silly notion that they are over drafted when their teams have shown nothing but confidence in them and its still WAY too early to determine the rest of their careers. If Minny wins a SB with Ponder at the helm, then is it still a bad pick because they took a guy at 12 instead of late first or early 2nd? Hint: If you say yes that would be absurd.

 

PS: If any of these so called draft "experts" that do mock drafts were any good at what they do, they wouldnt be loser mock draft analysts or arm chair GM's in their mothers basement writing for bleacher report, they would be highly paid NFL GM's...and yes that includes idiots like McShay and Kiper who are paid to be wrong more than 80% of the time on their analysts of college players.

Edited April 24, 2013 by Alphadawg7

[Orton's Arm]

I think you and SJF are both correct. Ponder has shown improvement. By no stretch of the imagination do i think Minny would say 'yep Ponder is going to be the next Brett Farve' . I do think Minny is now saying we need to give him some weapons and see if he can be our guy for the next 10 years. He will get this year and next to prove that.

Russell Wilson going out and having the type of year he had did not help Ponder by any means. But then again you could say Wilson had a better team around him and the perfect coach for a rookie qb to excel with.

In the end there are so many variable that go into any play excelling. And honestly if someone says well the took him to early and started him to quick so he could not handle the pressure and thus failed, do you honestly think someone with that mental makeup would have been a great qb? QB play is all about pressure. Give me a guy who loves getting picked in the first and wants the job and also will understand he will have some great games and some bad games to start his career. This guy will learn from his mistakes and make himself better. Going from 31 to 21 shows Ponder is improving. Now if he jumps up in the top 13 this year, then Minny knows that are on to something.

 

Good post and I agree. For what it's worth, I heard that Ponder was fairly mediocre for most of his second season. The exception being the last four games of the season, where he picked up his play a great deal. Even assuming that's true, there's always a chance those four games are a fluke. We as Bills fans are no strangers to QBs who play well for eight games, or even the entire 1998 season, only to quickly fade into mediocrity.

 

Then again, there's also the chance those four games represent the start of something more. Ponder and Drew Brees have a lot in common. They were both considered good pocket passers at the college level. Neither has overwhelming physical tools. Brees was picked 32nd overall, which is about where Ponder had been expected to be taken. Both had their careers get off to a slow start. None of this is any guarantee Ponder will become the next Brees.

 

In fact, I'd argue it's very premature to pass judgment on Ponder one way or the other. Going into the 2001 draft, TD eschewed using an early pick on a QB, in large part because he thought Rob Johnson could be the answer. In the 2006 draft, Marv passed up QBs like Cutler in order to give Losman his chance to shine. The fact the Vikings aren't currently trying to replace Ponder may be indicative of a Johnson/Losman situation, or of a Drew Brees situation. Only time will tell.