Trade Downs : The 4 Most Likely

[bkep32]

I wouldn't mind the 2nd part of that trade. We end up 9 overall picks instead of 6 but realistically I don't see that happening

[3rdand12]

Arthur brown would be sweet in the trade down. Add a receiver and i would be pleased.\

Thanks Bot

[KOKBILLS]

I do feel like everything that is going on is pointing towards the Bills looking for a trade down...Maybe even trading down twice...Getting more picks int his Draft is essential for the Bills IMHO...That #8 pick is growing in value too with the rise of players like Tavon Austin, and Star Lotulelei...Not to mention the possibility of Lane Johnson being available at #8...

 

It (trading down) makes a lot of sense...Which likely means Buddy will stay put...

[RK_BillsFan]

Dear god... do you know what you have done? I love to do nothing but spend countless hours doing number crunching.... I don't even know where the last hour went.... With that in mind i'll post a bit later with some trade downs i'm fiddling with. They will obviously be pure speculation but i'll probably go through and see if i can note players i would rather have in certain spots. TY for the time spender for slow time at work.

[McD]

It all comes down to value and need in a trade with Minny. Is there little value at the the top of the first round? Is there value at the bottom of the first round? What areas of need do you (we) need to fill? We have need at many positions: LB/WR/QB/G/TE/DB, thats 6 picks and I'm not sure past rd 3 or 4 if you can fill all of those positions with quality (well with the Bills current roster we prob could). If the "IMPACT" player (future multiple Pro-Bowl caliber) just isn't there at #8, but good value (solid starters w/potential for Pro Bowls) is with 2 picks at #23 and #25. It makes a lot of sense to pull the trigger on the trade if it's available, plus we'll fill an additional position by picking up that extra draft pick.

[RK_BillsFan]

Ok so I have had a pretty wasteful day at work. Been seeing what trades might be possible, and which ones would yield the best results. Unfortunately i didn't really go through each simulation for what i felt the team needed the most with who the Simulator said was available. However, i did end up with a daft I would be happy with if it happened. Obviously just having the Bills trade down would be a miracle let alone if these pieces fell into place. so here is a draft with us trading down with Cinncy.

 

we trade: 8/105/143 for their 21/37/84/118/156

 

Trade recap: we trade back and gain a early second(ahead of jets) and additional third as well as trade back in the later rounds.

 

Draft:(some rounds I have multiple picks as I would be ok with any of them, ** marks preferred but wouldn't break my heart if we got an alternative )

 

 

1)Pick: 21

Arthur Brown ILB Kansas State or **Kevin Minter ILB LSU

 

2)Pick: 37

Alex Okafor OLB3/4 Texas

 

3)Pick: 41

Xavier Rhodes CB Florida State

 

4)Pick: 71

Terrance Williams WRF Baylor

 

5)Pick: 84

Ryan Swope WRF Texas A&M

 

6)Pick 118

**Lavar Edwards OLB3/4 LSU or Kevin Reddick ILB North Carolina

 

7)Pick: 156

**Matt Scott QB Arizona or Alvin Bailey OG Arkansas (honestly do not Like Alvin Baily but he is shown as a good value for the spot. Looking him up he has issues with speed and getting to the next level. This late in the draft I would thinkg Matt Scott would be a great deal, or you could reach on any of the players for the next pick)

 

8)Pick: 177

Corey Fuller WRF Virginia Tech or Matt Furstenburg TE Maryland or **Oday Aboushi OT Virginia

 

Already got 2 WRs in the draft so a third might not be really needed. The Te is considered a reliable threat that was underused but seems to need a bit of coaching for blocking. The tackle is an interesting prospect and is compared to the RT from Cinncy and I think he can be kicked inside to Guard OR...... if he does well enough as a RT, we can move Chris Hairston to RG or LG. Maybe?

 

Draft Recap:

ILB

OLB

CB

WR

WR

OLB

QB

OL

 

I will probably do more of this after i'm done with some busy work i was just given. Let me know what you guys think. And of course yes this is all theoretical but i wouldn't mind this draft and would probably be extremely happy with it.

[Astrobot]

Dear god... do you know what you have done? I love to do nothing but spend countless hours doing number crunching.... I don't even know where the last hour went.... With that in mind i'll post a bit later with some trade downs i'm fiddling with. They will obviously be pure speculation but i'll probably go through and see if i can note players i would rather have in certain spots. TY for the time spender for slow time at work.

Bwah Hah Hah! Welcome to my world! Like moths to a flame!

 

One of my "fans" at DraftTek says that the Vikings won't see anything at #8 to trade up for---what do you think?

[RK_BillsFan]

One of my "fans" at DraftTek says that the Vikings won't see anything at #8 to trade up for---what do you think?

 

I'm the type to literally run the numbers regardless of practicality just to see what the possibility is. Crazier things have happened.

 

The Vikings are a pretty good team, a few more good pieces or a true franchise QB might be enough to push them over the top, who knows what they'll see at the top. They could have their pick of WR trading up to us.

 

Cinncy is another team that is pretty good atm and could always jump up to grab someone they feel will push them over the fringe contender to serious Late Playoff runner.

 

San Fran has a boat load of picks, so trading them is probably the most ideal for them. Although they have drafted well recently and could just rely on drafting young to lighten payroll. They are also in a position to really look for a smaller number of players in the draft and really pick and choose where and when to draft.

 

I'm not really sure about the Cowboys..... every year they are touted as playoff contenders and every year they seem to let everyone down. I'm not sure if it's coaching, players, bad luck? Their division isn't exactly a happy place to be, it's no NFC West but it's no slouch. I just can't tell if they have a glaring need to jump up a few spots rather than just waiting. I'll probably give this a bit more consideration.

[Astrobot]

6)Pick 118

**Lavar Edwards OLB3/4 LSU or Kevin Reddick ILB North Carolina------> Take Lavar Edwards OLB34. Reddick has played 4-3 exclusively.

7)Pick: 156

**Matt Scott QB Arizona or Alvin Bailey OG Arkansas------>I think Scott'll be picked up late 3rd. I like Bailey. He blocked for Knile Davis (1000 yd runner), also Ryan Mallett (3000 yd) in 2010, also Tyler Wilson in 2011-12. He's an equally-effective run-pass blocker whereas we're 6th in run blocking and like 20th in pass-blocking. Marrone likes 'em physical and tough and he is. He's quick off the snap, and can move.

8)Pick: 177

Corey Fuller WRF Virginia Tech or Matt Furstenburg TE Maryland or **Oday Aboushi OT VirginiFurstenburg is fast for a TE but small hands. Corey Fuller? I'd take Marcus Davis instead, his WR-mate. Aboushi is a Marrone guy.

[thewildrabbit]

I see the Saints needing an OT and perhaps may want to trade their #1 at 15 to move up to #8, also giving up their #2.

 

I can see them

I do feel like everything that is going on is pointing towards the Bills looking for a trade down...Maybe even trading down twice...Getting more picks int his Draft is essential for the Bills IMHO...That #8 pick is growing in value too with the rise of players like Tavon Austin, and Star Lotulelei...Not to mention the possibility of Lane Johnson being available at #8...

 

It (trading down) makes a lot of sense...Which likely means Buddy will stay put...

Yep, why on earth would the Bills trade down at all, and or often? This is Buddy Nix you are talking about! You know, they guy who loves HIS picks like his children.

 

Anyway I'm hoping the Bills go offense this year with that #8 OT / OG / WR

[RK_BillsFan]

i don't think the team can go wrong with going O or D for the draft. It's a draft that doesn't have a ton of Supreme talent, but it has a large depth of very good talent.

[Astrobot]

I see the Saints needing an OT and perhaps may want to trade their #1 at 15 to move up to #8, also giving up their #2.

 

I can see them

Yep, why on earth would the Bills trade down at all, and or often? This is Buddy Nix you are talking about! You know, they guy who loves HIS picks like his children.

 

Anyway I'm hoping the Bills go offense this year with that #8 OT / OG / WR

Best sig line of the draft! LOL ---- "Dadgum son, catfished by a buttweed"

Looking forward to the T-Shirt when Te'O's drafted by us at #41...

Edited April 9, 2013 by Astrobot

[Andre Speed]

Best sig line of the draft! LOL ---- "Dadgum son, catfished by a buttweed"

I'm a little late in contributing to this one, but... EGG-cellent thread, "rastro"! That drafttek of yours is a serious "buglite" for draft-nerds like me.

This is the hardest time of year for wannabe GMs. there is like, nothing we could do, even if we worked for our team.. or owned it!

 

hang in there fans. more shall be revealed

 

~AS

[Buffalo Barbarian]

The trade-downs that I've heard mentioned the most often, from most likely to least:

 

1. Minnesota. They have the #23 and #25 in RD1, and their top 2 priorities are CB and DT43. Our bait would be Xavier Rhodes, Star Lotulelei, and Sheldon Richardson at 8. Minnesota has also been rumored to want to leapfrog Chicago. The other trade involves the #23, #52, #83 and #102 for our #8 and #41 (less attractive IMHO).

 

2. Cowboys. They have #18 and #47, and their top 2 priorities are DT43 and DE43, Bjoern Werner, Ziggy Ansah, Star Lotulelei, and Sheldon Richardson are the bait to net those two picks.

 

3. San Francisco. They have #31, #34, #61, #74, #93 in the first 3 rounds, and their top priorities are TE, FS, SS, DE34 and DT34. Eifert, Ertz, Vaccaro, Sly Williams, Datone Jones, and Jesse Williams would be gone where they pick.

 

4. Cincy. They have #21 and #37 and their top 2 priorities are SILB, SS, CB and RB. Kenny Vaccaro and Xavier Rhodes would be the bait for them.

 

Bills' Minnesota tradedown mock for the Minnesota #23 and #25 pick, using DraftTek's Simulator:

1 23 Arthur Brown ILB Kansas State ---Bills visit

1 25 Johnthan Banks CB Mississippi State ---Bills visit

2 41 Tyler Wilson QB Arkansas ---Bills visit

3 71 Terrance Williams WRF Baylor

4 105 William Campbell DE34 Michigan

5 143 Gavin Escobar TE San Diego State

6 177 Buffalo Ty Powell OLB34 Harding

 

The other MIN trade gives us:

1 23 Tavon Austin WR WVU

1 25 Kevin Minter ILB LSU

2 53 Robert Woods WRF USC

3 71 Tyler Wilson QB Arkansas

3 83 Terrance Williams WRF Baylor

4 102 Travis Kelce TE Cincinnati

4 105 Terron Armstead OT Arkansas - Pine Bluff

5 143 Malliciah Goodman DE34 Clemson

6 177 Cobi Hamilton WRF Arkansas

 

Love that second draft that would totally rock if we got that; WRs Austin, Woods, Williams and Hamiilton I'd be doing back flips plus Kelce and the defenders and a solid QB prospect, Hell yeah!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Eventually you're gonna be right. What, like 300 different draft simulations now ? You can come back afterwards and say...see I told ya so !! And of course link the one that was right.

 

Hope your site is getting the hits you are working so hard for.

 

You are what you are. A child in the basement making guesses I suspect.

 

I'm patient. I'll watch what the front office does and I'll support it.

 

jb

 

Why don't you SHUT THE :censored: UP!!! Astro is no child (try looking at his bio dumb azz) and does a lot of work on

 

scouting players and ranking them, if you don't like what he does then post some other place moron.

[Flutie7Flakes]

Minnesota offers the most attractive trade-down deal with 2 end of the 1st round picks. This would give us a potential impact player whose stock has slid into the bottom portion of the 1st, then nabbing the QB early that we were targeting with our original 2nd rounder. In a best-case scenario, we would trade our #8 this year and a conditional 3rd or 4th rounder from next year(or maybe this yr). Ideally this would give us the opportunity to draft as such: #23 Tyler Eifert or Tavon Austin then #25 Nassib, Wilson or Barkley and #41 we could grab Pugh or the best ILB available.

 

P.S. if we wanted to really shake things up, we could go Mathieu with #41 ONLY if we traded back for 2-late 1st rounders. This would kill the Patriots gameplan of waiting to take him in the 2nd and give us some press for taking the Honey Badger. Just a thought from a marketing perspective!

[4BillsintheBurgh]

Bwah Hah Hah! Welcome to my world! Like moths to a flame!

 

One of my "fans" at DraftTek says that the Vikings won't see anything at #8 to trade up for---what do you think?

If they don't get winfield back, why not if milliner fell to #8? The only way I see a big trade down like that is if one of the top 5 players fell to us or maybe if someone really wants Lane Johnson. The talent level of players through the twenties is even enough where if you do trade down it's going to be tough to get value for the move. I was kind of hoping teams would take two or even three qb's before us and leave one of those top players but I think all those teams have hedged their bets in the first.

[RK_BillsFan]

Found this, thought you might want to add it to your list of possible trades (from bleacher report):

 

 

 

WGR 550's Joe Buscaglia recently speculatedthat the St. Louis Rams could trade up to the Bills' pick at No. 8 in the interest of securing West Virginia's explosive playmaker Tavon Austin.

 

In the trade, the Bills net the 16th and 46th overall selections in the draft.

[freester]

Found this, thought you might want to add it to your list of possible trades (from bleacher report):

 

 

 

WGR 550's Joe Buscaglia recently speculatedthat the St. Louis Rams could trade up to the Bills' pick at No. 8 in the interest of securing West Virginia's explosive playmaker Tavon Austin.

 

In the trade, the Bills net the 16th and 46th overall selections in the draft.

 

I'm in favor of any realistic trade down. Hopefully Buddy will not make any more bonehead tradeups like he did last year for WR in 3rd round.

[Chandler#81]

Eventually you're gonna be right. What, like 300 different draft simulations now ? You can come back afterwards and say...see I told ya so !! And of course link the one that was right.

 

Hope your site is getting the hits you are working so hard for.

 

You are what you are. A child in the basement making guesses I suspect.

 

I'm patient. I'll watch what the front office does and I'll support it.

 

jb

 

In the good 'ole days, I'd post 'welcome to my Ignore list'. These days, I'll be watching your posts.

 

Excellent work as usual, Astro. While many feel this is a draft that will see a lot of pick trades, I just don't see it -given the belief there's a lot of talent but no clear Blue-chippers. Why trade multiple early picks in this draft to move to 8 when the talent levels appear to stay the same all through round 2? JMO.

[SWVABillsFan]

Ok so I have had a pretty wasteful day at work. Been seeing what trades might be possible, and which ones would yield the best results. Unfortunately i didn't really go through each simulation for what i felt the team needed the most with who the Simulator said was available. However, i did end up with a daft I would be happy with if it happened. Obviously just having the Bills trade down would be a miracle let alone if these pieces fell into place. so here is a draft with us trading down with Cinncy.

 

we trade: 8/105/143 for their 21/37/84/118/156

 

Trade recap: we trade back and gain a early second(ahead of jets) and additional third as well as trade back in the later rounds.

 

Draft:(some rounds I have multiple picks as I would be ok with any of them, ** marks preferred but wouldn't break my heart if we got an alternative )

 

 

1)Pick: 21

Arthur Brown ILB Kansas State or **Kevin Minter ILB LSU

 

2)Pick: 37

Alex Okafor OLB3/4 Texas

 

3)Pick: 41

Xavier Rhodes CB Florida State

 

4)Pick: 71

Terrance Williams WRF Baylor

 

5)Pick: 84

Ryan Swope WRF Texas A&M

 

6)Pick 118

**Lavar Edwards OLB3/4 LSU or Kevin Reddick ILB North Carolina

 

7)Pick: 156

**Matt Scott QB Arizona or Alvin Bailey OG Arkansas (honestly do not Like Alvin Baily but he is shown as a good value for the spot. Looking him up he has issues with speed and getting to the next level. This late in the draft I would thinkg Matt Scott would be a great deal, or you could reach on any of the players for the next pick)

 

8)Pick: 177

Corey Fuller WRF Virginia Tech or Matt Furstenburg TE Maryland or **Oday Aboushi OT Virginia

 

Already got 2 WRs in the draft so a third might not be really needed. The Te is considered a reliable threat that was underused but seems to need a bit of coaching for blocking. The tackle is an interesting prospect and is compared to the RT from Cinncy and I think he can be kicked inside to Guard OR...... if he does well enough as a RT, we can move Chris Hairston to RG or LG. Maybe?

 

Draft Recap:

ILB

OLB

CB

WR

WR

OLB

QB

OL

 

I will probably do more of this after i'm done with some busy work i was just given. Let me know what you guys think. And of course yes this is all theoretical but i wouldn't mind this draft and would probably be extremely happy with it.

Shoving a QB pick that far down? Yeah let's just keep putting it off like they have for so many drafts now.