Drafting Success "QB"

[Dibs]

Hi all,

 

This is the first in a series of threads that I am doing where I will be breaking down past drafts in order to determine the average chance of finding:

1. (Star) A star player (4+ Pro Bowls)
    
   
2. (Starter) A starting calibre player (12 or more games for 5+ seasons)
    
   
3. (probowl) A pro bowl player (1+ Pro Bowls)
   

Category 1 and 2 are by far more important to drafting success than category 3.

 

I am only interested in players that succeeded for the original team that drafted them, thus determining the odds of a successful draft selection for the team doing the selecting. Players who succeeded for teams other than the team that drafted them will not be counted.

 

I am doing this for my own personal interests and figure that other posters here may also find it interesting.

 

I will be breaking the draft up into rounds 1, 2, 3, 4/5, 6/7, as well as breaking the 1^st round into 5 sections. #1, #2-4, #5-10, #11-20 & #21-32.

 

The data pool will be selected from 20 years of drafts from 1986 – 2005. This ensures all draftees have a full 8 years of NFL experience to achieve my benchmarks.

(Rounded to the nearest percent)

 

Quarterbacks

 

Round 1

 

41 players selected

4 Stars 10% (1 in 10.3)

11 Starters 27% (1 in 3.7)

15 probowlers 37% (1 in 2.7)

 

R1 Pick 1

 

11 players selected

2 Stars 18% (1 in 5.5)

6 Starters 55% (1 in 1.8)

6 probowlers 55% (1 in 1.8)

 

R1 Picks 2-4

 

8 players selected

2 Stars 25% (1 in 4)

3 Starters 38% (1 in 2.7)

3 probowlers 38% (1 in 2.7)

 

R1 Picks 5-10

 

6 players selected

0 Stars

0 Starters

2 probowlers 33% (1 in 3)

 

R1 Picks 11-20

 

7 players selected

0 Stars

1 Starters 14% (1 in 7)

3 probowlers 43% (1 in 2.3)

 

R1 Picks 21-32

 

9 players selected

0 Stars

1 Starters 11% (1 in 9)

1 probowlers 11% (1 in 9)

 

Round 2

 

16 players selected

2 Stars 6% (1 in 8)

2 Starters 6% (1 in 8)

3 probowlers 19% (1 in 5.3)

 

Round 3

 

27 players selected

0 Stars

0 Starters

3 probowlers 11% (1 in 9)

 

Rounds 4/5

 

53 players selected

0 Stars

2 Starters 4% (1 in 26.5)

2 probowlers 4% (1 in 26.5)

 

Rounds 6/7

 

79 players selected

1 Stars 1% (1 in 79)

4 Starters 5% (1 in 19.8)

6 probowlers 8% (1 in 13.2)

 

 

Notes & Observations:

Due to the singular nature of the QB position I felt it necessary to include several QBs who did not fit my criteria due to being traded very early in their careers because of having a quality starter in front of them in the cases of Mark Brunell, Matt Hasselbeck & Matt Schaub, and unique situations in the cases of Brett Favre & Drew Brees.

I should also note that due to Aaron Rodgers(1st round) backing up to Favre for 3 years he has not yet qualified for a Star nor a Starter and I would think he is bound to qualify for both after next season.

 

As one would expect, the 1^st round has by far the greatest chance to end up with a starter. Oddly enough the 2^nd round has shown a better success rate in finding star QBs than the 1^st.

 

It should be noted that that upon removing the top 4 selections from the 1^st round, the odds of finding a star or starter are drastically reduced. It works out to be zero stars and only 2 starters from 22 selections. Again, the 2^nd round has better odds in both of those catagories.

 

Another interesting aspect is that when removing the aberration that is Tom Brady(6^th round), there is very little difference in the success rate between rounds 3 to 7…..with the 3^rd round being devoid of successful QB draftees.

 

I will also note that it appears the starter category for QB would likely be lower than most positions as the QB position is typically only manned by a player for 5+ years if they are considered to be “good”. “Average” QBs will rarely if ever see 5+ years of starting on the team that drafted them.

 

 

 

As a Bills fan looking forward to this draft where we have the #8 pick and desperately need a good QB….this study has depressed me somewhat.

Edited January 24, 2013 by Dibs

[Captain Hindsight]

Not to nitpick but Rodgers was a first rounder.. 22nd overall I think

[Alphadawg7]

Hi all,

 

This is the first in a series of threads that I am doing where I will be breaking down past drafts in order to determine the average chance of finding:

1. (Star) A star player (4+ Pro Bowls)
    
   
2. (Starter) A starting calibre player (12 or more games for 5+ seasons)
    
   
3. (probowl) A pro bowl player (1+ Pro Bowls)
   

..............................................

 

Notes & Observations:

 

I should also note that due to Aaron Rodgers(2^nd round) backing up to Favre for 3 years he has not yet qualified for a Star nor a Starter and I would think he is bound to qualify for both after next season.

 

As a Bills fan looking forward to this draft where we have the #8 pick and desperately need a good QB….this study has depressed me somewhat.

 

Actually, first round hit rate is very good, better than most positions. And Aaron Rodgers was not drafted in the 2nd round, he was drafted in the first round and he is a star player in any grade format.

 

Another issues is that guys like Brees were already good players for the original team (Brees had a great last year in SD) that drafted them. He just left as a FA because they drafted Rivers prior to Brees breaking out and then Brees also got hurt bad on the last game of the year. So you shouldnt limit it to the original team that drafted them because some of these guys were drafted and got stuck behind other guys, like Hasselbeck and Schaub before they got the opportunity to play somewhere else as a starter. Doesn't make them a miss by the original team, just means they had someone entrenched ahead of them.

Edited January 24, 2013 by Alphadawg7

[Dibs]

Not to nitpick but Rodgers was a first rounder.. 22nd overall I think

Yep...fixing now.

 

Actually, first round hit rate is very good, better than most positions. And Aaron Rodgers ......he is a star player in any grade format.

I will be discovering if you are correct about hit rate as I go through the other positions. What I said was correct though....outside of the top 4 the hit rate is very low. Even including Rodgers it would be only 3 in 22.

Rodgers is not a star player under the criteria that I set.....hence me specifically mentioning him.

Edited January 24, 2013 by Dibs

[Alphadawg7]

Yep...fixing now.

 

 

I will be discovering if you are correct about hit rate as I go through the other positions.

Rodgers is not a star player under the criteria that I set.....hence me specifically mentioning him.

 

I understand your criteria, I am just saying its very flawed considering Rodgers is the one of the 3 best QB's in football, and some argue the best, yet doesnt fit your star category. The guy is a star...period. Thats the issue, you are not getting accurate data this way to really judge the merits of finding actual on field talent with star ability.

[Dibs]

I understand your criteria, I am just saying its very flawed considering Rodgers is the one of the 3 best QB's in football, and some argue the best, yet doesnt fit your star category. The guy is a star...period. Thats the issue, you are not getting accurate data this way to really judge the merits of finding actual on field talent with star ability.

 

Sigh...whatever.

I had to draw some line. I chose to start from 2005....Rodgers is relatively unique as he spent 3 years on the bench. I mentioned this specifically because Rodgers is a star and doesn't fit into the criteria. What's the problem?

[Alphadawg7]

Sigh...whatever.

I had to draw some line. I chose to start from 2005....Rodgers is relatively unique as he spent 3 years on the bench. I mentioned this specifically because Rodgers is a star and doesn't fit into the criteria. What's the problem?

 

Is Rogers a star? Obviously yes...you dont have him as a star = data flawed. Same goes on QB's like Hasselbeck, Schaub, Farve, etc...they were not drafted by their teams, yet are pretty darn good QB's for a long time. So you are not counting them either...so you are lowering stats and going with inaccurate data to come to your conclusions of finding a star, pro bowler, or starter.

 

The merits should be on the quality of the QB, not the number of Pro Bowls he made. RG3 is already a star, so is Newton and you could argue Luck and Wilson. Kaepernickl, what about him? This kid can ball, but he misses all 3 of your categories. These are all BIG hits by the respective teams that drafted them, but most miss all 3 of your categories...therefore you data is grossly flawed. Lets recap...your formula leaves out Brees and Farve all together (2 of the best of our generation), Hasselbeck, Schaub, etc...very good long time QB's...young guns RG3, Luck, Newton, Wilson, Kaepernick (stars in the making, if not some already considered stars by some and would fetch multi first round picks today in trade if they were ever made available).

 

Your formulas, while I understand them, leave out so much talent and there fore while I respect the time you took to put this together is too flawed to really come to any conclusions you are looking for. I dont say that to mock you, I appreciate the effort and time, just feebback so you can fine tune it to get better data.

[Kelly the Dog]

First, thanks and great stuff, Dibs.

 

I do, however, agree with Alpha on this one.

 

Plus, since you are going down to 1986 - 2005, drafts, maybe you should have a second version, because of the expansion teams added in 1995 and 2002 (and maybe more. I have long contended, for example, that Drew Brees was not really a #2 pick but more of a #1 pick because he was the 31st player taken overall. So maybe picks 1-32 should be first round, 33-64 should be second round, etc. Because that is where the league is at now. Mark Brunell, for example, was drafted in the 5th, #118 overall. Today, 118 overall is middle of the 4th round. ( i didnt check what the added draft picks awarded from FA affect the numbers)

[Dibs]

First, thanks and great stuff, Dibs.

 

I do, however, agree with Alpha on this one.

 

Plus, since you are going down to 1986 - 2005, drafts, maybe you should have a second version, because of the expansion teams added in 1995 and 2002 (and maybe more. I have long contended, for example, that Drew Brees was not really a #2 pick but more of a #1 pick because he was the 31st player taken overall. So maybe picks 1-32 should be first round, 33-64 should be second round, etc. Because that is where the league is at now. Mark Brunell, for example, was drafted in the 5th, #118 overall. Today, 118 overall is middle of the 4th round. ( i didnt check what the added draft picks awarded from FA affect the numbers)

I'm kicking myself that I didn't split the 2nd round into two sections.....which i had initially thought of doing.

I totally agree with what you are saying. Splitting up the 1st round however shows(and likely will for other positions) the gradual percentage changes. I didn't do what you suggested as it would have majorly compounded the difficulty in data collection.

 

Is Rogers a star? Obviously yes...you dont have him as a star = data flawed. Same goes on QB's like Hasselbeck, Schaub, Farve, etc...they were not drafted by their teams, yet are pretty darn good QB's for a long time. So you are not counting them either...so you are lowering stats and going with inaccurate data to come to your conclusions of finding a star, pro bowler, or starter.

No....I stated that I included Favre, Hasselbeck, Schaub etc.

 

 

The merits should be on the quality of the QB, not the number of Pro Bowls he made. RG3 is already a star, so is Newton and you could argue Luck and Wilson. Kaepernickl, what about him? This kid can ball, but he misses all 3 of your categories. These are all BIG hits by the respective teams that drafted them, but most miss all 3 of your categories...therefore you data is grossly flawed. Lets recap...your formula leaves out Brees and Farve all together (2 of the best of our generation), Hasselbeck, Schaub, etc...very good long time QB's...young guns RG3, Luck, Newton, Wilson, Kaepernick (stars in the making, if not some already considered stars by some and would fetch multi first round picks today in trade if they were ever made available).

 

Your formulas, while I understand them, leave out so much talent and there fore while I respect the time you took to put this together is too flawed to really come to any conclusions you are looking for. I dont say that to mock you, I appreciate the effort and time, just feebback so you can fine tune it to get better data.

 

I tried to get a base criteria that I could use for all positions that did not rely on opinion. I did not want to get bogged down with who thinks what player does or does not qualify for stardom etc. For example....imagine the argument over whether Bledsoe was a star QB or not. Many think he was.....many think he wasn't. Only Rodgers didn't fit the criteria....Favre etc fit the criteria but moved teams early due to issues specific to the QB position.

 

The young guys get left out because some may regress....while others may come on in their 3rd years etc. Imagine if RG3 gets an injury next year that ends his career? He would & should then count as a failed draft pick as his team did not get the production hoped for from him.

Edited January 24, 2013 by Dibs

[Alphadawg7]

I'm kicking myself that I didn't split the 2nd round into two sections.....which i had initially thought of doing.

I totally agree with what you are saying. Splitting up the 1st round however shows(and likely will for other positions) the gradual percentage changes. I didn't do what you suggested as it would have majorly compounded the difficulty in data collection.

 

 

No....I stated that I included Favre, Hasselbeck, Schaub etc.

 

 

 

 

I tried to get a base criteria that I could use for all positions that did not rely on opinion. I did not want to get bogged down with who thinks what player does or does not qualify for stardom etc. For example....imagine the argument over whether Bledsoe was a star QB or not. Many think he was.....many think he wasn't. Only Rodgers didn't fit the criteria....Favre etc fit the criteria but moved teams early due to issues specific to the QB position.

 

The young guys get left out because some may regress....while others may come on in their 3rd years etc. Imagine if RG3 gets an injury next year that ends his career? He would & should then count as a failed draft pick as his team did not get the production hoped for from him.

 

I understand your decisions, and hope you know my feedback was in support of what you are doing, not to argue it or mock it. I appreciate the time and effort as I have done stuff like this before and I know it takes some time.

 

That being said, you are right, there are a lot of variables, and there probably is no perfect way to do it. However, I would say that based on today, not tomorrow, but today those young QB's are high profile guys and playing at a high level. Your data can not be based on the unknown, only on the known, otherwise you get involved in prediction. Right now Wilson, RG3, Luck, Newton, etc are all studs, starters, and some are Pro Bowlers or award winners. No team would be uspest if they could draft one of those guys right now...if they were all in this draft, they would be the first 5 picks without question. So, to leave them out in my opinnion is a mistake. The goal here is to see the odds of getting a top prospect in the draft and where...they have more than proven they are top prospects and no sane Bills fan would be disappointed if we got one of those guys over incumbent Fitz.

 

And as far as the other points go, a system that leaves out guys like Farve, Brees, Hasselbeck, Schaub, or even Bledsoe doesnt help either as all of those guys in their hay day would be huge upgrades for this team and high draft picks, some even #1 overall in a redraft.

 

Again, thanks for working on this, just trying to illustrate why these other QB's not being accounted for really hurts the data because they really would be huge hits if we drafted someone of their caliber this year in any round, which is what I understood the point of the data to be...finding a good QB in the draft for us.

[JPS]

Nice Dibs. I may have designed at it differently, but I love looking at this stuff from different angles. I get hung up on guys like Schaub and even Matt Cassel. Each were acquired for two-2nd round picks, which is like a 1...kinda. Interesting stuff though.

 

Who is the last major DRAFT investment at QB made by the Bills? Todd Collins?

[Sisyphean Bills]

Who is the last major DRAFT investment at QB made by the Bills? Todd Collins?

JP Losman was a 1st rounder.

[Alphadawg7]

JP Losman was a 1st rounder.

 

Sad truths to be a Bills fan

Edited January 24, 2013 by Alphadawg7

[NewEra]

Thanks for the effort. Now who do we draft and when?

 

 

JP Losman was a 1st rounder.

 

JP was a 1st and 2nd rounder!!

[Kelly the Dog]

Nice Dibs. I may have designed at it differently, but I love looking at this stuff from different angles. I get hung up on guys like Schaub and even Matt Cassel. Each were acquired for two-2nd round picks, which is like a 1...kinda. Interesting stuff though.

 

Who is the last major DRAFT investment at QB made by the Bills? Todd Collins?

Besides Losman, you'd have to consider trading a #1 pick for Rob Johnson, a really young guy with limited game experience, to be the equivalent of a draft investment. I would even say trading a #1 for Bledsoe to be one, but i understand your distinction of not including him.

[JPS]

I just did a quick count of current starting QBs in the NFL. Of the 32 jobs in the NFL, 17 starters were drafted in the top 10. 23 out of 32 were 1st rounders. The only true outliers are Brady, Fitz and Romo. The rest were taken within the First 3 rounds. I count Cassel in this because they gave up two 2nd rounders for him.

 

Besides Losman, you'd have to consider trading a #1 pick for Rob Johnson, a really young guy with limited game experience, to be the equivalent of a draft investment. I would even say trading a #1 for Bledsoe to be one, but i understand your distinction of not including him.

I can't believe I forgot about Losman. Yeah, I left out trades. I figure if they were drafting well, trades would not be necessary.

[Dibs]

.....The goal here is to see the odds of getting a top prospect in the draft and where...they have more than proven they are top prospects and no sane Bills fan would be disappointed if we got one of those guys over incumbent Fitz.....

Thanks for the clarification AlphaD. All's good

 

In terms of the goal, I'll elaborate/discuss a bit....

 

My main goal was to determine the average chance of getting a player who will minimally have 5 seasons where he is good enough to start for the drafting team. It is more a reflection of "bang for bucks" with the draft picks.

I was focusing in that particular way due to the fact that every draft, a large number of fans(and media) assume that their 1st, 2nd, usually 3rd and sometimes 4th round selections are going to solve the problems at whatever position for a good number of years to come.

Effectively I was trying to find out how many players drafted actually do that.

That is why I won't count a superstar who gets injured and then has reduced ability or retires after the 3rd year.....nor players that start for 4 years for the drafted team and then leave....nor players who play mediocre and then play like superstars at another team.

 

It's not an analysis of how many players end up being good players.....it's an analysis of how many players end up plugging the required holes for the team that drafted them....because in the crux of it, that is what they are drafted to do in the first place.

 

I hope I've explained myself well enough there.

[Kelly the Dog]

I just did a quick count of current starting QBs in the NFL. Of the 32 jobs in the NFL, 17 starters were drafted in the top 10. 23 out of 32 were 1st rounders. The only true outliers are Brady, Fitz and Romo. The rest were taken within the First 3 rounds. I count Cassel in this because they gave up two 2nd rounders for him.

 

 

I can't believe I forgot about Losman. Yeah, I left out trades. I figure if they were drafting well, trades would not be necessary.

True. There are a lot of ways to assemble a roster good enough to contend for the Super Bowl, and there are all kinds of ways teams have gone about it. Drafting well is somewhat of a consensus most important way. But signing big free agents, signing "cog" free agents, signing street free agents, re-signing your own players, and trades, are all important. And you'll find contributors from most all if not all of these ways on all contenders.

[KOKBILLS]

JP was a 1st and 2nd rounder!!

 

Now you're just piling on...

[Dibs]

Nice Dibs. I may have designed at it differently, but I love looking at this stuff from different angles. I get hung up on guys like Schaub and even Matt Cassel. Each were acquired for two-2nd round picks, which is like a 1...kinda. Interesting stuff though.

 

Who is the last major DRAFT investment at QB made by the Bills? Todd Collins?

Ta.

To me the stats show that only a 1st round pick can be considered a major draft investment when considering the QB position. The two 2nd round starters were Brees(who KellyDog pointed out was the 32nd pick)....and Favre who was the 33rd pick.

If you are picking outside the 1st round(& #1 in R2) you are looking at needing to pick 20ish guys on average to find a 5+ year starter.