Doc Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Not according to Nate Silver Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorldTraveller Posted July 23, 2012 Author Share Posted July 23, 2012 Link? http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/22/do-presidential-polls-break-toward-challengers/ Leave it up to Nate to concoct some sort of weird formulation to support his bias, even though there is clear evidence that suggests otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Big Cat Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 So while we both acknowledge that the incumbent has a huge advantage, and from your point of view, Romney is a weak candidate, yet the polls show a practically dead even race. What does that say about Obama? Not according to Nate Silver "Practically dead even race." And you accuse Nate Silver of skewing data? I'm showing 6 polls that have Obama ahead, 3 for Romney and 1 tied in the last month. Obama takes twice as many polls as Romney, yet it's a dead even race? Okay! http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html#polls I'm sure there's a liberal bent to these numbers, though. There's gotta be. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/22/do-presidential-polls-break-toward-challengers/ Leave it up to Nate to concoct some sort of weird formulation to support his bias, even though there is clear evidence that suggests otherwise. Also, the hyperbole of using Nate Silver as an example seemed to fly right over your pointy head. But whatever, par of the course around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
/dev/null Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 We can sit here and ping pong back and forth about whether the incumbant has the advantage or if undecideds break for the challenger. We can wonder if Obama can get the Hope & Change band back together or question every blunder the Romney campaign makes. We can speculate who Romney will pick as VP or chortle over Biden's latest gaffe. But in the end, there's still 3 months til the election. Romney's tax returns, Obama's birth certificate, Bain, and Solyndra, will all be distant memories by then. Something will happen within the next 3 months that will shape the election. Some major bank or European country goes down the stojanner. Tensions flare with Iran. The situation in Syria escalates. The Ancient Mayans return in their Mon Calamari Cruiser to pick up the dude from Ancient Aliens. Or something totally unforseen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/22/do-presidential-polls-break-toward-challengers/ Leave it up to Nate to concoct some sort of weird formulation to support his bias, even though there is clear evidence that suggests otherwise. Historical evidence shows otherwise. I heard a great analogy. Ask yourself "would you remarry your spouse if you could do it over again?" If your answer is "undecided," what does that tell you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Big Cat Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Historical evidence shows otherwise. I heard a great analogy. Ask yourself "would you remarry your spouse if you could do it over again?" If your answer is "undecided," what does that tell you? Yes, because presidential elections are lifetime commitments. Air tight analogy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorldTraveller Posted July 23, 2012 Author Share Posted July 23, 2012 "Practically dead even race." And you accuse Nate Silver of skewing data? I'm showing 6 polls that have Obama ahead, 3 for Romney and 1 tied in the last month. Obama takes twice as many polls as Romney, yet it's a dead even race? Okay! http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html#polls I'm sure there's a liberal bent to these numbers, though. There's gotta be. Also, the hyperbole of using Nate Silver as an example seemed to fly right over your pointy head. But whatever, par of the course around here. "practically dead even race" with RCP showing the race 1.1% so yeah, if there ever was a case to say "practically" dead even race, this would be it. Also, the hyperbole of using Nate Silver as an example seemed to fly right over your pointy head. But whatever, par of the course around here. You can always tell when someone becomes frustrated, we began with a discussion, I provided facts, you provided emotion, and then you followed through with the ad hominems, sure sign of a frustrated individual losing the debate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Big Cat Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 "practically dead even race" with RCP showing the race 1.1% so yeah, if there ever was a case to say "practically" dead even race, this would be it. That's the average of all the margins, if we were going by probability based on number of polls won, Obama has a 20 point edge. Why not go back a full year--162 polls for Obama, 46 polls for Romney, 23 tied. But yes, the likelihood of them winning is a simple as average of all the margins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dayman Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 "practically dead even race" with RCP showing the race 1.1% so yeah, if there ever was a case to say "practically" dead even race, this would be it. It will come down to the debates and even more likely it will come down to what a few million people in swing states decide to do a few days before they go punch their ballot. I still think that toss up favors Obama but that's pure opinion. Romney could surprise me in the debates. And the independents voting the incumbent out IMO is nothing to rely on for Romney this go around but once again that is just my opinion historical analysis would disagree w/ me. All in all at this moment in time I would put it at 51% Obama, 49% Romney. And that's come straight out of my ass into your eyes and brain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorldTraveller Posted July 23, 2012 Author Share Posted July 23, 2012 That's the average of all the margins, if we were going by probability based on number of polls won, Obama has a 20 point edge. Why not go back a full year--162 polls for Obama, 46 polls for Romney, 23 tied. But yes, the likelihood of them winning is a simple as average of all the margins. Really? That's your counter argument? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
/dev/null Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 "practically dead even race" with RCP showing the race 1.1% so yeah, if there ever was a case to say "practically" dead even race, this would be it. Remember back when the Wisconsin re-call was a dead heat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorldTraveller Posted July 23, 2012 Author Share Posted July 23, 2012 It will come down to the debates and even more likely it will come down to what a few million people in swing states decide to do a few days before they go punch their ballot. I still think that toss up favors Obama but that's pure opinion. Romney could surprise me in the debates. And the independents voting the incumbent out IMO is nothing to rely on for Romney this go around but once again that is just my opinion historical analysis would disagree w/ me. All in all at this moment in time I would put it at 51% Obama, 49% Romney. And that's come straight out of my ass into your eyes and brain. At this point in time, I could agree with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 (edited) Yes, because presidential elections are lifetime commitments. Air tight analogy! Wait, marriages are "lifetime commitments?" Could have fooled me. Many marriages end in less time than it is between presidential elections. Edited July 23, 2012 by Doc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Big Cat Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 "practically dead even race" with RCP showing the race 1.1% so yeah, if there ever was a case to say "practically" dead even race, this would be it. You can always tell when someone becomes frustrated, we began with a discussion, I provided facts, you provided emotion, and then you followed through with the ad hominems, sure sign of a frustrated individual losing the debate. Yes, I'm losing a debate to someone who has no stance. I love how you posted this seconds before I contributed nothing but numbers. So let me ask you straight up, do you think Romney will win, and if yes, where's your evidence? Is it because he's (by your definition) narrowly trailing in 60 percent of the polls conducted over the last month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Yes, I'm losing a debate to someone who has no stance. I love how you posted this seconds before I contributed nothing but numbers. So let me ask you straight up, do you think Romney will win, and if yes, where's your evidence? Is it because he's (by your definition) narrowly trailing in 60 percent of the polls conducted over the last month? They're all within the MOE, which means a statistical dead heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Big Cat Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Wait, marriages are "lifetime commitments?" Could have fooled me. Many marriages end in less time than it is between presidential elections. What a wise and diplomatic edit to a pathetic continuation of an argument, solely for argument's sake. I don't know why I try my own sanity sometimes. From here forth, your dribble will remain ignored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorldTraveller Posted July 23, 2012 Author Share Posted July 23, 2012 (edited) Yes, I'm losing a debate to someone who has no stance. I love how you posted this seconds before I contributed nothing but numbers. So let me ask you straight up, do you think Romney will win, and if yes, where's your evidence? Is it because he's (by your definition) narrowly trailing in 60 percent of the polls conducted over the last month? Evidence? I said it's practically a dead even race, and that the point of the thread is that Obamas attacks have been largely ineffective. Then you came in with "Obama will win because nate silver says so and ummm, yeah, and yeah, he'll win, because that's what I believe" So you came in with an emotional non related response. We're having a discussion based on facts, polling data and in your case emotions, so I can see why you began with the personal attacks. I mean understand, there is a tendency in people to lob ad hominems once they get frustrated, in what started off as a civil conversation. So let me repeat this again for you, the point of the thread was that the attacks have been largely ineffective according to polling data, not who will win the election. Edited July 23, 2012 by WorldTraveller Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taro T Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 You guys can bend and twist anyway you like to make you feel more confident in your GOP golden boy. Why face reality, right? Romney = Kerry and the right hates Obama as much as the left hated Bush in 2004. Romney is a weak candidate with a weak campaign team. He. Will. Lose. Right, but if they were still drunk, this election would be a LANDSLIDE. The hangover is just making things slightly more interesting. Regarding the bold: we shall see in November. That is still more than 3 months, 2 conventions, and ~3 debates from now. Right now the polls are tight; something will eventually make them swing. I expect the polls to stay tight until ~mid-October and then one candidate will pull away from the other and the final result won't look close. I know you want Romney to lose, I don't know that you'll get your wish. That's the average of all the margins, if we were going by probability based on number of polls won, Obama has a 20 point edge. Why not go back a full year--162 polls for Obama, 46 polls for Romney, 23 tied. But yes, the likelihood of them winning is a simple as average of all the margins. Clearly statistics ain't your bag. You do realize that Carter was beating Reagan in most polls until the very end of the campaign, right? So, because he was leading in '79 and June of '80, he won the election, right? The only poll that counts is the one on November 6. The only ones that will tell us anything relevant will start to show up after the 1st debate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 What a wise and diplomatic edit to a pathetic continuation of an argument, solely for argument's sake. I don't know why I try my own sanity sometimes. From here forth, your dribble will remain ignored. I accept your defeat. Toodles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorldTraveller Posted July 23, 2012 Author Share Posted July 23, 2012 Regarding the bold: we shall see in November. That is still more than 3 months, 2 conventions, and ~3 debates from now. Right now the polls are tight; something will eventually make them swing. I expect the polls to stay tight until ~mid-October and then one candidate will pull away from the other and the final result won't look close. I know you want Romney to lose, I don't know that you'll get your wish. Clearly statistics ain't your bag. You do realize that Carter was beating Reagan in most polls until the very end of the campaign, right? So, because he was leading in '79 and June of '80, he won the election, right? The only poll that counts is the one on November 6. The only ones that will tell us anything relevant will start to show up after the 1st debate. No no no no, considering that Obama has been leading in most of the polls going back over the past six months, it is equally important to factor in polling data from six months ago to provide a snap shot of today's race Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts