Fan Feedback on 3rd or 4th and short in 2011

[richNjoisy]

Forgive me for not reviewing the games but only going from memory (and some frustration during the 2011 season),

but it seemed to me the following is true:

 

1.) In the first 4-6 games, the Bills used the Wildcat a number of times PARTICULARLY on 3rd and 4th and short.

2.) That we were successful in getting a 1st done every time we did this (MAYBE we failed.....once?)

3.) After week 7 (or so) Fitzpatrick stayed in at QB and either did a QB sneak or ran some other play. My recollection is the success of

3rd and 4th and short dropped markedly (it had to since my recollection is the Bills had a 100% success rate early on....nowhere to go but down)

 

At the time, I know Brad Smith was playing a lot more wide receiver due to injuries but I still hated them not using the Wildcat for short yardage plays since they were so successful early on. This frustration grew as the Bills failed to push the chains later in the season on third and shorts.

 

Supplementary question: Couldn't Vince Young completely take over the Wildcat role from Brad Smith? if so, is Brad's roster spot really THAT safe?

 

Can any of you chime in on this?

 

Thanks!

 

-RichNJoisy

[Mr. WEO]

Forgive me for not reviewing the games but only going from memory (and some frustration during the 2011 season),

but it seemed to me the following is true:

 

1.) In the first 4-6 games, the Bills used the Wildcat a number of times PARTICULARLY on 3rd and 4th and short.

2.) That we were successful in getting a 1st done every time we did this (MAYBE we failed.....once?)3.) After week 7 (or so) Fitzpatrick stayed in at QB and either did a QB sneak or ran some other play. My recollection is the success of

3rd and 4th and short dropped markedly (it had to since my recollection is the Bills had a 100% success rate early on....nowhere to go but down)

At the time, I know Brad Smith was playing a lot more wide receiver due to injuries but I still hated them not using the Wildcat for short yardage plays since they were so successful early on. This frustration grew as the Bills failed to push the chains later in the season on third and shorts.

 

Supplementary question: Couldn't Vince Young completely take over the Wildcat role from Brad Smith? if so, is Brad's roster spot really THAT safe?

 

Can any of you chime in on this?

 

Thanks!

 

-RichNJoisy

 

Not even close. 3rd and short, the wildcat converted less than half the time.

[eball]

Last year the wildcat was a work in progress. Gailey has indicated numerous times the lack of a true offseason limited their ability to implement everything they wanted to with Brad Smith. Still, during the early part of the year Smith was very successful converting 3rd downs out of the Bills' primitive wildcat -- I refuse to debate WEO over percentages, as I think someone else already fought this battle.

 

During the second half of the season Smith was converted primarily to WR because of the injury situation, so yes, the wildcat essentially disappeared.

 

I believe it would be foolish to predict the success or failure of the wildcat this year, because the Bills have now had the time to develop a complete package, as well as bringing in one of the original architects of the scheme (Lee).

 

With respect to the question about VY -- I don't think you want your #2 QB (sorry Tyler) being subjected to the kind of hits a RB takes.

 

In summary, I think this year we'll see the Brad Smith the Bills hoped they were getting.

[boyst]

I had thought that, too. At some point there was an article where it brought up something similar and my only conclusion is that when we convert those wildcat plays everyone is made to know it - from the booth to radio and stadium. When they don't work out they are quickly ushered off the field.

[richNjoisy]

Not even close. 3rd and short, the wildcat converted less than half the time.

 

If you can, can you provide any additional information to your statement? Did the Bills fail using the Wildcat during the first 6 games? If so, which games so I can check this out. If it were later (games 7-16), again, point that out and, if you can, which games and how many times?

 

if you are only going from memory, that's fine, but please make that clear since in your post your SOUNDED quite certain

(based on stats and not your memory).

 

Thanks WEO!

[Mr. WEO]

If you can, can you provide any additional information to your statement? Did the Bills fail using the Wildcat during the first 6 games? If so, which games so I can check this out. If it were later (games 7-16), again, point that out and, if you can, which games and how many times?

 

if you are only going from memory, that's fine, but please make that clear since in your post your SOUNDED quite certain

(based on stats and not your memory).

 

Thanks WEO!

 

Posted this a few months ago:

 

 

The "wildcat" (such as it was) was almost exclusively used during the 5-2 streak, despite the offense being on fire.

 

If the wildcat was "designed...(for) getting first downs on short yardage, why did Chan call for Smith to receive the direct snap/line up in shotgun 6 times (30% of total wildcats) on first down?

 

Only 40% of the plays were called on 3rd and short (8/20). Smith converted on 3 of those 3rd downs, so it is not true he "was not stopped one time". In fact, 2 of his three 3rd down conversions came in the first week and he had no others until week 8.

 

Overall, he had 7 first downs (3 came on 2nd down) in 20 plays.

 

Since then some (including someone who also initially claimed that it worked "every time") have quibbled about the denominator and even claimed that when Smith didn't convert, it was still a good play, etc. But it wasn't close to uniformly successful and the strange thins is that Chan mostly used it on 2nd and occasionally 1st downs.

 

I think if the wildcat has to be part of our offense, it should be with VY 100% of the time. Smith isn't a threat to throw (because he can't) and every team knows this. That's why they struggled to convert last year.

[mountainwampus]

7 first downs and 1 TD on 20 attempts sounds pretty productive to me, regardless of what down or how many yards he gained. Using it more than 20 times would've given us a better impression, but I noticed Brad's skillful patience of finding the soft spot in the line to pick up crucial yardage.

[Kelly the Dog]

Posted this a few months ago:

 

 

 

 

Since then some (including someone who also initially claimed that it worked "every time") have quibbled about the denominator and even claimed that when Smith didn't convert, it was still a good play, etc. But it wasn't close to uniformly successful and the strange thins is that Chan mostly used it on 2nd and occasionally 1st downs.

 

I think if the wildcat has to be part of our offense, it should be with VY 100% of the time. Smith isn't a threat to throw (because he can't) and every team knows this. That's why they struggled to convert last year.

That someone would be me, because WEO's stats are flat wrong. Twice he counts plays that were not plays as misses (like one time the play didn't work but the defense had 12 men on the field so we got the first down). The other was we had a false start or something that had nothing to do with Smith, the play was never run, and they didn't make any attempt. Then we ran a play on 3rd and 6 or so without the Wildcat. he also counted a play in his stats where Smith was in the game on 3rd and long but it wasn't at all a Wildcat, Fitz was the QB and took the snap like he does on 99% of the Bills plays.

 

The play that I said was not a first down but I personally still considered a good and important play (you don't have to if you do not agree) was the second last play of the Eagles game. I think it was 3rd and 2 and we ran the Wildcat. Smith looked to pick up the first down and it was a crappy spot, and when they measured it was an inch short. That was when we lined up and Fitz drew the Eagles offsides and we won the game. If we weren't an inch short that never would have worked. I don't consider it getting the first down, it is a miss in the stats, but to me that was one of several critical plays in the game. If he got stopped flat or just one yard, we would have punted, or we would have not been able to draw them off like that. If you watch the replay he easily got the first down, too.

 

WEO is right that it didn't work all the time. My original recollection of it working was wrong. Gailey himself said in this off season that our first down percentage went down when he had to scrap the Wildcat, so he obviously thinks it was a success. And we're going to see a lot more of it this year. Smith isn't going anywhere.

[hondo in seattle]

The Bills were last in the league on 3rd-and-2 and 3rd-and-3. With or without the wildcat, my recollection is that we were pathetic at 3rd-and-short.

 

I know lots of people like to point out how high our yard-per-carry were or how little we were sacked as evidence of a good offensive line. But an O Line ought to be able to create some push. Ours didn't in obvious run situations.

 

The sack and rush metrics are a result of Chan's play-calling and Fitz's fast release. The poor 3rd-and-short conversion rate, though, exposes just how poor our O Line was last year. I think Chan used the wildcat in obvious run situations to give us an extra blocker to compensate for our weak O Line. But it just didn't work out that well.

 

Maybe will a full off-season and Coach Lee to help perfect it, we'll see a better wildcat this year.