Just in Atlanta Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 (edited) Buffalo no doubt is on track to have one of the best defensive lines in the NFL. We're also bound to go from near-last in the NFL in sacks to Top 5. So...I checked sack totals for last season to see the correlation of sacks vs. playoff berths. The top 10 sackers had a 50 percent chance of making it, while the bottom 10 had a terrible 10 percent chance. Here are some other stats correlated for playoff berths. Feel free to add more or adjust: Defensive sacks - Top 10 sack leaders--50 percent playoff rate. - Bottom 10--10 percent rate. Buffalo is the No. 6 worst. Defensive INT - Top 10 INT leaders--60 percent playoff rate. Buffalo is No. 6 best. - Bottom 10 INT leaders--40 percent rate. Defensive INT touchdowns - Top 10 leaders--40 percent playoff rate. Buffalo is No. 2 best. - Bottom 10--30 percent rate. Defensive forced fumbles - Top 10--50 percent playoff rate. Buffalo is No. 9 best. - Bottom 10--30 percent rate. Offensive sacks - Top 10 most sacked--30 percent playoff rate. - Bottom 10 least sacked--40 percent rate. Buffalo is No. 1 best. Offensive INTs - Top 10 most offensive INTs--10 percent playoff rate. Buffalo is No. 1 worst. - Bottom 10 least offensive INTs--60 percent playoff rate. Offensive passing TDs - Top 10 most TDs--60 percent playoff rate. Buffalo is No. 9 best. - Bottom 10 least TDs--10 percent rate. Offensive fumbles - Top 10 most fumbles (AFC)--40 percent playoff rate. - Bottom 10 least fumbles (AFC)--20 percent rate. Buffalo is No. 1 best. Rushing yards per attempt - Top 10 most yards--20 percent playoff rate!!?? Buffalo is No. 5 best. - Bottom 10 least yards--30 percent rate!!?? First downs - Top 10 most first downs--70 percent playoff rate. Buffalo is in neither top or bottom. - Bottom 10 least first downs--10 percent playoff rate. So...what can we glean from this? Buffalo fared well in most stat categories. However, many of those categories had little correlation to making the playoffs! It appears that the following stats have a strong correlation to making the playoffs: Defensive sacks. We were bad. Defensive forced fumbles: We're already top 10. Offensive INTs: We were worst in this category. Offensive passing TDs: We are in the top 10. Offensive first downs: Buffalo is average. We need to get more. Other observations: Buffalo has some good overall stats. But the ones that killed us were offensive INTs and lack of defensive sacks. Pittsburgh and Denver have horrible stats. Both teams are in the bottom 10 for many categories, but still made the playoffs. For offensive INTs and defensive sacks, both were mediocre. Why? And what can we emulate from these teams? Buffalo had some good rushing stats. But it appears rushing had little to do with playoff success last season. It truly is a passing league now. Summary: Buffalo will be a playoff team if it continues the good stats of last season and improves on defensive sacks, first downs and substantially limits offensive INTs. I believe a lot more sacks and a few fewer INTs will definitely happen, as offensive INTs piled up after Fitz' injury and our D line is so improved. The real question marks are... Can we substantially decrease offensive INTs and somewhat increase first downs? Can't wait for football. Edited June 4, 2012 by JustinAtlanta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Astrobot Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 Wonderful post. I would love to see a source because I love data. Wisely, Nix opted for pass rush in FA and scored big time, fixing the greatest Bills shortcoming in your list ("Defensive sacks. We were bad."). In the draft, he went for a safe CB for more INT's, and a solid O-Line guy for more time for FitzMagic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Jose Bills Fan Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 The Bills D was one of the best units in the league at forcing turnovers in spite of having zero pass rush. Projecting ahead… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beerball Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 Where's the baby? This season needs to get here ASAP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nanker Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 Where's the baby? This season needs to get here ASAP! Exactly. Can we pool our money and offer Goodell a bounty if he moves the season up a month or two? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Just in Atlanta Posted June 3, 2012 Author Share Posted June 3, 2012 Wonderful post. I would love to see a source because I love data. Wisely, Nix opted for pass rush in FA and scored big time, fixing the greatest Bills shortcoming in your list ("Defensive sacks. We were bad."). In the draft, he went for a safe CB for more INT's, and a solid O-Line guy for more time for FitzMagic. Thanks Astrobot. Source for all data: ESPN NFL stats. Source for playoff percentage: My brain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meathead Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 nice job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsWatch Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 One stat missing: tipped balls Despite having "zero pass rush" (all sacks were accident or QB tripping on own feet I guess) the Bills DL was able to defend a lot of balls last year even when unable to sack QB. I think disrupting passing lanes is as important as pressures on defense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRAWNDO Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 Buffalo no doubt is on track to have one of the best defensive lines in the NFL. We're also bound to go from near-last in the NFL in sacks to Top 5. So...I checked sack totals for last season to see the correlation of sacks vs. playoff berths. The top 10 sackers had a 50 percent chance of making it, while the bottom 10 had a terrible 10 percent chance. Here are some other stats correlated for playoff berths. Feel free to add more or adjust: Defensive sacks - Top 10 sack leaders--50 percent playoff rate. - Bottom 10--10 percent rate. Buffalo is the No. 6 worst. Defensive INT - Top 10 INT leaders--60 percent playoff rate. Buffalo is No. 6 best. - Bottom 10 INT leaders--40 percent rate. Defensive INT touchdowns - Top 10 leaders--40 percent playoff rate. Buffalo is No. 2 best. - Bottom 10--30 percent rate. Defensive forced fumbles - Top 10--50 percent playoff rate. Buffalo is No. 9 best. - Bottom 10--30 percent rate. Offensive sacks - Top 10 most sacked--30 percent playoff rate. - Bottom 10 least sacked--40 percent rate. Buffalo is No. 1 best. Offensive INTs - Top 10 most offensive INTs--10 percent playoff rate. Buffalo is No. 1 worst. - Bottom 10 least offensive INTs--60 percent playoff rate. Offensive passing TDs - Top 10 most TDs--60 percent playoff rate. Buffalo is No. 9 best. - Bottom 10 least TDs--10 percent rate. Offensive fumbles - Top 10 most fumbles (AFC)--40 percent playoff rate. - Bottom 10 least fumbles (AFC)--20 percent rate. Buffalo is No. 1 best. Rushing yards per attempt - Top 10 most yards--20 percent playoff rate!!?? Buffalo is No. 5 best. - Bottom 10 least yards--30 percent rate!!?? First downs - Top 10 most first downs--70 percent playoff rate. Buffalo is in neither top or bottom. - Bottom 10 least first downs--10 percent playoff rate. So...what can we glean from this? Buffalo fared well in most stat categories. However, many of those categories had little correlation to making the playoffs! It appears that the following stats have a strong correlation to making the playoffs: Defensive sacks. We were bad. Defensive forced fumbles: We're already top 10. Offensive INTs: We were worst in this category. Offensive passing TDs: We are in the top 10. Offensive first downs: Buffalo is average. We need to get more. Other observations: Buffalo has some good overall stats. But the ones that killed us were offensive INTs and lack of defensive sacks. Pittsburgh and Denver have horrible stats. Both teams are in the bottom 10 for may categories, but still made the playoffs. For offensive INTs and defensive sacks, both were mediocre. Why? And what can we emulate from these teams? Buffalo had some good rushing stats. But it appears rushing had little to do with playoff success last season. It truly is a passing league now. Summary: Buffalo will be a playoff team if it continues the good stats of last season and improves on defensive sacks, first downs and substantially limits offensive INTs. I believe a lot more sacks and a few fewer INTs will definitely happen, as offensive INTs piled up after Fitz' injury and our D line is so improved. The real question marks are... Can we substantially decrease offensive INTs and somewhat increase first downs? Can't wait for football. Thanks Astrobot. Source for all data: ESPN NFL stats. Source for playoff percentage: My brain. Great Stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Just in Atlanta Posted June 4, 2012 Author Share Posted June 4, 2012 It's amazing that most available running stats really had no seeable correlation to making playoffs last year. Am still surprised that top 10 average yard per run actually has a negative correlation to making the playoffs. (Why is this?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1B4IDie Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 (edited) 40-60% playoff means the stat is meaningless at predicting playoff appearance. Seems like first downs are important. Edited June 4, 2012 by Why So Serious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Just in Atlanta Posted June 4, 2012 Author Share Posted June 4, 2012 40-60% playoff means the stat is meaningless at predicting playoff appearance. Seems like first downs are important. Hardly. You're not looking at it the right way. There are 32 teams. Of the top 10 of any category, a 60 percent stat is substantially meaningful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 40-60% playoff means the stat is meaningless at predicting playoff appearance. Seems like first downs are important. Don't make me dig up my stats book.... 12/32 teams make the playoffs so about a 38% chance of post season play if randomly selected. So while 40% is likely insig, 60 likely is.. I am sure some one out there could write a paper on the math.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Jose Bills Fan Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 It's amazing that most available running stats really had no seeable correlation to making playoffs last year. Am still surprised that top 10 average yard per run actually has a negative correlation to making the playoffs. (Why is this?) I'm not a statistician and I slept in my own bed last night (and the night before) but if I were to try to explain it I would say that the ability for a team to run the ball effectively is not a very important competency in the NFL right now as far as team success goes. It's probably more important than net punting average for instance but much less important than passing efficiently, defensing the pass, protecting the QB, pressuring the oppositions QB, etc. Not sure if that helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Just in Atlanta Posted June 4, 2012 Author Share Posted June 4, 2012 I'm not a statistician and I slept in my own bed last night (and the night before) but if I were to try to explain it I would say that the ability for a team to run the ball effectively is not a very important competency in the NFL right now as far as team success goes. It's probably more important than net punting average for instance but much less important than passing efficiently, defensing the pass, protecting the QB, pressuring the oppositions QB, etc. Not sure if that helps. I agree, but it doesn't explain why a seemingly important stat--yards per run--had the more yards you ran, the less chance you made the playoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Jose Bills Fan Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 I agree, but it doesn't explain why a seemingly important stat--yards per run--had the more yards you ran, the less chance you made the playoffs. I know. It goes against so much of what we were led to believe years ago. Bill Parcells famously crowed after beating the Bills in the '91 Super Bowl, "Power football wins championships." In recent years you hear coaches talk a lot about chunk yardage. It must have something to do with the risk/reward of taking shots downfield as opposed to taking a "plowhorse" approach to offense. I think this goes along with the "bend but don't break" approach to defense which is predicated on the belief that if you make an offense run many plays to move the ball downfield that the drive will eventually fail more often than not. Someone here will be able to explain it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1B4IDie Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 (edited) Hardly. You're not looking at it the right way. There are 32 teams. Of the top 10 of any category, a 60 percent stat is substantially meaningful. I disagree. Not to mention you need more than 1 year's sampling to have even a slight hint at what stats are meaningfull when it comes to making the playoffs. The Top is arbitrary, so you would want to look at the SD of each ranking, and probably not even in the ranking but the real numbers behind the stats. #1 might have 12 forces fumbles and #10 might have 9. Edited June 4, 2012 by Why So Serious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1B4IDie Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 It's amazing that most available running stats really had no seeable correlation to making playoffs last year. Am still surprised that top 10 average yard per run actually has a negative correlation to making the playoffs. (Why is this?) #7 overall has 4.5 ypc; #32 overall has 3.5 ypc. There isn't a big enough difference in ypc over a season for it to have meaning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Just in Atlanta Posted June 4, 2012 Author Share Posted June 4, 2012 I disagree. Not to mention you need more than 1 year's sampling to have even a slight hint at what stats are meaningfull when it comes to making the playoffs. The Top is arbitrary, so you would want to look at the SD of each ranking, and probably not even in the ranking but the real numbers behind the stats. #1 might have 12 forces fumbles and #10 might have 9. You have 100 M&Ms, 32 people. 10 of those 32 people have 60 M&Ms. The remaining 22 have only 40. That is meaningful. I know it's not perfect, but it's a quick analysis. I measured top and bottom, because it's logical to assume, more often than not, that good teams will have top 10 stats in seemingly important categories and bad teams, bottom 10. You're more than welcome to measure top 15 and bottom 17. I didn't have enough time for that. I agree, it would be interesting to see a couple more years, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanC883 Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 I think we will lead the league in INT and Sacks. For sure INT. I hope we sign Byrd long term before the season, because I'm seeing him having a TON of INT's this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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