section122 Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 i get what your saying. i dont think i buy that its an effort to help the pats that this is happening though. even in the case of the strong non conference opponent (which is pretty limited in chances to fall after a bye), it is still an important game to win. speaking to the people saying the divisional record is a big deal - that would only be if someone thought we were not just number 2, but were going to tie. any of the tie breakers within the conference for seeding go on head to head and conference record, no? if thats the case a big game against the steelers, ravens, in the past the colts or now the texans or denver would be MUCH more valuable a win than to beat up the bills. Yeah I don't think I'm buying it either but I can understand how some see this as an issue. Just for fun I looked at the schedule to see how many teams got the Bills off of a bye and interestingly only the Texans come off of a bye before playing us (Bills also have a bye before playing the Texans as they are on bye the same week). I wonder if there are any teams that don't play anyone coming off of a bye and conversely who plays the most teams coming off of bye. I would imagine it will add a little more perspective to this discussion. I would have to say though only playing 2 teams coming off of a bye (and 1 that we are coming off the same bye) doesn't seem to be a bad rap or big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 This is my point. This tendency to always play the Pats after their bye week is not random it is premeditated. The benefit to the Pats is that they get to play a division rival almost every year after 2 weeks to prepare and rest. The cost to us is that we have had to play a division rival and division leader almost every year for the last 8. It's tough enough to take away a game from a division leading rival and much tougher after they have 2 weeks to rest and prepare. Teams don't get rusty middle of the season with an additional week of rest playing at home. It's pretty simple in my eyes. No doubt it is. i get what your saying. i dont think i buy that its an effort to help the pats that this is happening though. even in the case of the strong non conference opponent (which is pretty limited in chances to fall after a bye), it is still an important game to win. speaking to the people saying the divisional record is a big deal - that would only be if someone thought we were not just number 2, but were going to tie. any of the tie breakers within the conference for seeding go on head to head and conference record, no? if thats the case a big game against the steelers, ravens, in the past the colts or now the texans or denver would be MUCH more valuable a win than to beat up the bills. Good point. An argument coulbd be made by the pats that having the Bills after the bye is a waste of the bye week. History would support this contention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDaDdy Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 An argument coulbd be made by the pats that having the Bills after the bye is a waste of the bye week. History would support this contention. Part of that history is us almost always playing the Pats after their bye week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 No doubt it is. Good point. An argument coulbd be made by the pats that having the Bills after the bye is a waste of the bye week. History would support this contention. To take it a step further, that the bills would win the division, if not for this post pats bye week loss that catapults them to a tie while splitting their head to head (after all, without the bye we beat them) and having a better record then us against the fins and jets. Whereas if you assume the pats are competing for homefield, much more reasonable than us overtaking them during those 4 years, the most valuable games would be othe AFC division winners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
section122 Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Alright just for fun I went through and looked at the Bye weeks and who plays teams coming off of them. I came up with some interesting numbers (not that I'm sure they mean much) (all of the numbers will be games against teams coming off of byes) 4 Eagles (now they have a beef!) 3 Falcons 2 Packers, Ravens, Raiders, Lions, Cowboys, Browns, Bills (1 of the teams is also off of our bye) 1 Chiefs, Bucs, Saints, Jets, Broncos, 49ers, Rams (49ers and rams face each other coming off of bye and only one each team plays) ,Seahawks, Jags, Bears, Dolphins, Texans and check out the list of teams with 0 Steelers (jewel franchise) Giants (jewel franchise) Pats (jewel franchise) Redskins, Bengals, Colts, Titans, Vikings, Chargers, Cards, Panthers not sure what it means but I did find it interesting that 3 of the top franchises from the leagues perspective don't face any teams coming off of a bye. The Eagles and Falcons got the short end of the stick for sure. Would be interesting at the end of the year to compare this list to the end of year records and see if it meant anything. By the end of the year though we will forget all about this debate as we celebrate our playoff return! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 (edited) Alright just for fun I went through and looked at the Bye weeks and who plays teams coming off of them. I came up with some interesting numbers (not that I'm sure they mean much) (all of the numbers will be games against teams coming off of byes) 4 Eagles (now they have a beef!) 3 Falcons 2 Packers, Ravens, Raiders, Lions, Cowboys, Browns, Bills (1 of the teams is also off of our bye) 1 Chiefs, Bucs, Saints, Jets, Broncos, 49ers, Rams (49ers and rams face each other coming off of bye and only one each team plays) ,Seahawks, Jags, Bears, Dolphins, Texans and check out the list of teams with 0 Steelers (jewel franchise) Giants (jewel franchise) Pats (jewel franchise) Redskins, Bengals, Colts, Titans, Vikings, Chargers, Cards, Panthers not sure what it means but I did find it interesting that 3 of the top franchises from the leagues perspective don't face any teams coming off of a bye. The Eagles and Falcons got the short end of the stick for sure. Would be interesting at the end of the year to compare this list to the end of year records and see if it meant anything. By the end of the year though we will forget all about this debate as we celebrate our playoff return! You could say "wow only 3 premiere teams without" just as easily. Edited April 18, 2012 by NoSaint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
section122 Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 You could easily say "wow only 3 premiere teams without" just as easily. yeah but then all my "hard work" would have been reduced to 6 words Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CodeMonkey Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Put it this way, it probably pisses them off more than it does us, it's not like they usually need it. That's actually a really good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timba Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 New England Bye Weeks since 2000, from the patriots website: http://www.patriots.com/games-and-stats/schedule.html 2000 - Bye week: 9 Week 10 opponent: Buffalo 2001 - Bye week: 16 Week 17 opponent: Carolina 2002 - Bye week: 7 Week 8 opponent: Denver 2003 - Bye week: 10 Week 11 opponent: Dallas 2004 - Bye week: 3 Week 4 opponent: Buffalo 2005 - Bye week: 7 week 8 opponent: Buffalo 2006 - Bye week: 6 week 7 opponent: Buffalo 2007 - Bye week: 10 week 11 opponent: Buffalo 2008 - Bye week: 4 week 5 opponent: San Francisco 2009 - Bye week: 8 week 9 opponent: Miami 2010 - Bye week: 5 Week 6 opponent: Baltimore 2011 - Bye week: 7 Week 8 opponent: Pittsburgh 2012 - Bye week: 9 Week 10 opponent: Buffalo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDaDdy Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Alright just for fun I went through and looked at the Bye weeks and who plays teams coming off of them. I came up with some interesting numbers (not that I'm sure they mean much) (all of the numbers will be games against teams coming off of byes) 4 Eagles (now they have a beef!) 3 Falcons 2 Packers, Ravens, Raiders, Lions, Cowboys, Browns, Bills (1 of the teams is also off of our bye) 1 Chiefs, Bucs, Saints, Jets, Broncos, 49ers, Rams (49ers and rams face each other coming off of bye and only one each team plays) ,Seahawks, Jags, Bears, Dolphins, Texans and check out the list of teams with 0 Steelers (jewel franchise) Giants (jewel franchise) Pats (jewel franchise) Redskins, Bengals, Colts, Titans, Vikings, Chargers, Cards, Panthers not sure what it means but I did find it interesting that 3 of the top franchises from the leagues perspective don't face any teams coming off of a bye. The Eagles and Falcons got the short end of the stick for sure. Would be interesting at the end of the year to compare this list to the end of year records and see if it meant anything. By the end of the year though we will forget all about this debate as we celebrate our playoff return! I've done it previous years and stopped because I saw the same type of pattern and it just made me angry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RealityCheck Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 4 out of the last 5 years and 6 of the last 8 I think. I would say that defies the statistical chance of it being just a "coincidence". If it were relatively random we should get the Pats after OUR bye week 50% of the time when it does happen. This also defies incredibly that statistical possibility. The reality of the situation makes it HIGHLY "suspicious" in my opinion. Of course. Why actually READ about what "mathematical coincidence" actually is and examples of such when empirical evidence would conceivably get in the way of your preconceived notions. The only thing that is not a coincidence when it comes to the Bills and Pats is that the Bills are 1 and for the past 7 years against them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDaDdy Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Of course. Why actually READ about what "mathematical coincidence" actually is and examples of such when empirical evidence would conceivably get in the way of your preconceived notions. The only thing that is not a coincidence when it comes to the Bills and Pats is that the Bills are 1 and for the past 7 years against them. So enlighten us oh wise one. How does mathematical coincidence explain an incredible statistic improbability if this coincidence is based on chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bills44 Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Yes, the reason we are suggesting alternative scenarios is.....we are Pats fans in disguise....and not because.... ....we are trying to help you with your....paranoia. The reason your monitor flickers every once in a while? That's me, watching you. Btw, you need to lose a few pounds, that sweater vest has to go, and no, wearing that scarf doesn't make you look erudite. That girl will never be into you as long as you keep wearing it to the coffee shop. And, yeah, it's time to get a new laptop...but...understand, I will be present on that one as well...way before you even buy it. hopefully, your next attempt at humor will be better than this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Avenger Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 (edited) I looked at ALL bye weeks for ALL teams since 2000 - here's what I found: -Since 2000, Buffalo has played 18 games against teams coming off a bye. By contrast, New England has played 10, including a 3 year stretch between 2007-2009 where they played ZERO teams coming off a bye -New England has played Buffalo 6 times after coming off their bye since 2000, by far the most common matchup. Since 2000, no other team has played the same opponent more than 3 times coming off their bye week. -Only 1 team has played more games against teams coming off a bye than Buffalo - Atlanta has 20 games against such teams, Buffalo has 18. Arizona has the fewest with only 5. I know we Bills fans are a sensitive and somewhat paranoid lot - it's hard not to be when you see how we get dumped on. I don't think there's any master plan to screw the Bills and make their life tough or to give someone else some sort of break, but looking at the data you do see that Buffalo has fared far worse than most in this area. To me it's simply a matter of bad luck, but with all the bad luck we've had in other areas I'd rather not have it when it comes to the schedule. Edited April 18, 2012 by The Avenger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 I looked at ALL bye weeks for ALL teams since 2000 - here's what I found: -Since 2000, Buffalo has played 18 games against teams coming off a bye. By contrast, New England has played 10, including a 3 year stretch between 2007-2009 where they played ZERO teams coming off a bye -New England has played Buffalo 6 times after coming off their bye since 2000, by far the most common matchup. Since 2000, no other team has played the same opponent more than 3 times coming off their bye week. -Only 1 team has played more games against teams coming off a bye than Buffalo - Atlanta has 20 games against such teams, Buffalo has 18. Arizona has the fewest with only 5. I know we Bills fans are a sensitive and somewhat paranoid lot - it's hard not to be when you see how we get dumped on. I don't think there's any master plan to screw the Bills and make their life tough or to give someone else some sort of break, but looking at the data you do see that Buffalo has fared far worse than most in this area. To me it's simply a matter of bad luck, but with all the bad luck we've had in other areas I'd rather not have it when it comes to the schedule. i knew it was about helping the great franchises like arizona! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattM Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Wow--looks like I missed all the fun today on this one. Many thanks to the researchers--the overall opponents after a bye week stuff is interesting. I'd looked at that a few years ago myself when we led the League in post-bye opponents (one of the years when the Golden Boys got zippo). If this and all the other breaks they get "all averages out" as it should if it's truly random, then the Cheatahs* sure do have a lot comin' to them.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OCinBuffalo Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 hopefully, your next attempt at humor will be better than this one. Oh, I'm not kidding. See that flicker? Wait. See it? Yeah, that's me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 To take it a step further, that the bills would win the division, if not for this post pats bye week loss that catapults them to a tie while splitting their head to head (after all, without the bye we beat them) and having a better record then us against the fins and jets. Whereas if you assume the pats are competing for homefield, much more reasonable than us overtaking them during those 4 years, the most valuable games would be othe AFC division winners. The pats should be the one's complaining to the league about getting the BIlls after the bye so many times the past decade. New England Bye Weeks since 2000, from the patriots website: http://www.patriots.com/games-and-stats/schedule.html 2000 - Bye week: 9 Week 10 opponent: Buffalo 2001 - Bye week: 16 Week 17 opponent: Carolina 2002 - Bye week: 7 Week 8 opponent: Denver 2003 - Bye week: 10 Week 11 opponent: Dallas 2004 - Bye week: 3 Week 4 opponent: Buffalo 2005 - Bye week: 7 week 8 opponent: Buffalo 2006 - Bye week: 6 week 7 opponent: Buffalo 2007 - Bye week: 10 week 11 opponent: Buffalo 2008 - Bye week: 4 week 5 opponent: San Francisco 2009 - Bye week: 8 week 9 opponent: Miami 2010 - Bye week: 5 Week 6 opponent: Baltimore 2011 - Bye week: 7 Week 8 opponent: Pittsburgh 2012 - Bye week: 9 Week 10 opponent: Buffalo Essentially, this is 5 pages laboring to find evil in a "mathematic coincidence" that hasn't happened in 5 years! Some conspiracy! NFL, you dissappoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RealityCheck Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 So enlighten us oh wise one. How does mathematical coincidence explain an incredible statistic improbability if this coincidence is based on chance? No wonder you are so smart, I mention the idea of reading about something that is actually quite fascinating and I'm the a******. If you don't want to look it up then just say so. The notion that you would prefer my explanation to doing some of your own fact finding says it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattM Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 The pats should be the one's complaining to the league about getting the BIlls after the bye so many times the past decade. Essentially, this is 5 pages laboring to find evil in a "mathematic coincidence" that hasn't happened in 5 years! Some conspiracy! NFL, you dissappoint. "Mathematic Coincidence"? What odds do you need to see the possibility (that's all it is, since none of us were there) that there's something more than coincidence here? Personally, when the odds get over 200 to 300 to 1, my spidey-sense goes off, but that may just be me. Further food for thought. The odds of getting us after the bye each year are actually worse than 8 to 1 when one considers that teams like the Bills who play the Cheats* twice a year are much more likely to play them at least once (or, like last year and some prior years (2003?), both times) in non-bye eligible weeks, making the odds each year that we get them after a bye at probably between 9 to 1 and 10 to 1. So, really the odds of that happening 4 years in a row "naturally" are more on the order of 6,000 to 1 or 10,000 to 1. I'd like one of you to debunk the math--I'm open to being wrong on the odds here, but you'll need to prove that to me and none of you has yet..... Similarly, I must also admit that nothing I've seen above has convinced me that there's little to no chance that the Pats* don't have some influence or say on who they get after a bye. Whether it be a division game (again, we got 1 in 11 years, for ex.) or against another top team or rival (interesting that the years before they got them off a bye, the Pats* had been humiliated by each of the Steelers and Ravens, for ex.), they seem to get meaningful games after a bye, the kind of games one would want after a bye more often than randomness would suggest.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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