High Risk/Reward Draft

[Astrobot]

When DraftTek's computer handed me Janoris Jenkins this week (in RD2), I began to wonder about players falling due to breaches of character, how fall we think they'll fall, and when does the reward outweigh the risk. So here is an Astro-Draft for your consideration: How many of these players would you pull the trigger on at that pick? We think most of these guys will be available at the Bills' pick in that round, but not by the next round:

 

RD1-Michael Floyd WR -- arrested for DUI in 2010 charged with underage drinking the year before, nothing since

RD2-Janoris Jenkins CB--4 children by 3 women, bar fight, 2 arrests for pot possession

RD3-Bruce Irvin DE/OLB--high school arrest and destruction of property this March

RD4#105-Josh Norman CB--on-field incidents and shouting matches with coaches

RD4#124-Chris Rainey RB/WR--domestic dispute that resulted in a stalking charge

RD5#144 or 147-Vontaze Burfict LB--general azzwhole

RD6#178-Jack Crawford DE--police found drug paraphernalia in his apartment

RD7#217-Cliff Harris CB--118 miles per hour, with suspended license, without insurance, cited for pot possession

[CSBill]

When DraftTek's computer handed me Janoris Jenkins this week (in RD2), I began to wonder about players falling due to breaches of character, how fall we think they'll fall, and when does the reward outweigh the risk. So here is an Astro-Draft for your consideration: How many of these players would you pull the trigger on at that pick? We think most of these guys will be available at the Bills' pick in that round, but not by the next round:

 

RD1-Michael Floyd WR -- arrested for DUI in 2010 charged with underage drinking the year before, nothing since

RD2-Janoris Jenkins CB--4 children by 3 women, bar fight, 2 arrests for pot possession

RD3-Bruce Irvin DE/OLB--high school arrest and destruction of property this March

RD4#105-Josh Norman CB--on-field incidents and shouting matches with coaches

RD4#124-Chris Rainey RB/WR--domestic dispute that resulted in a stalking charge

RD5#144 or 147-Vontaze Burfict LB--general azzwhole

RD6#178-Jack Crawford DE--police found drug paraphernalia in his apartment

RD7#217-Cliff Harris CB--118 miles per hour, with suspended license, without insurance, cited for pot possession

 

No LTs ever get in trouble? Dang, we're screwed!

[Astrobot]

Some interesting values questions come up when you think about players with character issues.

--What effects upon existing team chemistry could be caused by the player?

--If I had a core of veterans that could discourage behaviors (or had Ray Lewis), does that entice me?

--Is the risk ever worth it for a certain behavior over a different behavior? (e.g., pot over alcohol)

--Does it matter how recent the behavior was? Is Floyd's "clean year" convincing enough to risk taking him?

[Nanker]

When DraftTek's computer handed me Janoris Jenkins this week (in RD2), I began to wonder about players falling due to breaches of character, how fall we think they'll fall, and when does the reward outweigh the risk. So here is an Astro-Draft for your consideration: How many of these players would you pull the trigger on at that pick? We think most of these guys will be available at the Bills' pick in that round, but not by the next round:

 

RD1-Michael Floyd WR -- arrested for DUI in 2010 charged with underage drinking the year before, nothing since

RD2-Janoris Jenkins CB--4 children by 3 women, bar fight, 2 arrests for pot possession

RD3-Bruce Irvin DE/OLB--high school arrest and destruction of property this March

RD4#105-Josh Norman CB--on-field incidents and shouting matches with coaches

RD4#124-Chris Rainey RB/WR--domestic dispute that resulted in a stalking charge

RD5#144 or 147-Vontaze Burfict LB--general azzwhole

RD6#178-Jack Crawford DE--police found drug paraphernalia in his apartment

RD7#217-Cliff Harris CB--118 miles per hour, with suspended license, without insurance, cited for pot possession

 

**** man, Cliff Harris is my new hero.

 

J.K.

[Astrobot]

**** man, Cliff Harris is my new hero.

 

J.K.

Oh, and plus, he wasn't using a car!

[r00tabaga]

Oh, and plus, he wasn't using a car!

 

Motorcycle? Yes! Grab em in Rd1. You do realize that all these players will all be drafted by Cincinnati right?

Edited April 1, 2012 by r00tabaga

[Astrobot]

Motorcycle? Yes! Grab em in Rd1. You do realize that all these players will all be drafted by Cincinnati right?

While Oakland will be jealous, the over/under is Cincy grabbing 3 of these guys, and Ray Lewis grabbing Burfict.

[turftoe]

Michael Floyd, not at 10 but at the end of the round.

[NoSaint]

While Oakland will be jealous, the over/under is Cincy grabbing 3 of these guys, and Ray Lewis grabbing Burfict.

 

I could see that if burfict was athletic when his heads straight. He's not.

[Astrobot]

If I had to rank these guys from "Highest Risk, Lowest Reward" to "Lowest Risk, Highest Reward" within the Bills current system, here'd be the breakdown:

 

"Lowest Risk, Highest Reward"

 

RD3-Bruce Irvin DE/OLB--At RD3, Irvin's speed, athleticism, and quickness, plus OLB position, put him here

RD1-Michael Floyd WR----The year of "walking the walk" means a lot

RD2-Janoris Jenkins CB--He's a top 15 player even on Kiper's board, but at RD2 he could be special

RD7#217-Cliff Harris CB--hey, it's the 7th round--low risk.

RD4#124-Chris Rainey RB/WR--speed kills.

RD6#178-Jack Crawford DE--I like his accent.

RD5#144 or 147-Vontaze Burfict LB--stupid penalties, clubhouse ethos risk outweigh his [poor] combine work

 

"Highest Risk, Lowest Reward"