Message sent by Fitz

[Wooderson]

It's what, a 42 yard field goal? Lindell is about 60% in that range.

 

So there's a 30% chance we give the Pats the ball on our 42 yd line.

 

Making a long pass attempt to convert, essentially was like a short punt. The ball was intercepted on the 20 yrd line, except by a DB rather than a return specialist.

 

There's a chance we could have converted, and if we'd tackled a bit better it would potentially have come out better than a punt.

 

You might disagree with the call, but it hardly "reeked of panic." It's outside the box football, taking a calculated risk (fumbled snap or sack would have been bad), and sending a message "get ready, 'cuz the Bills aren't going to color between the lines any more."

 

52 yards. 35 yard line + 10 endzone + 7 for kicking space.

[FightinIrishBills]

This is a little ridiculous. Had the Bills not won this game, we would be savaging Fitz for that throw as an example of poor decision-making and unnecessary risk-taking. In fact, it might rightly have been called the backbreaker play that buried the Bills if not for some phenomenal gut-checking by this team in spite of, not because of, their earlier errors.

 

I love Fitzy as much as anyone but that was an ugly play. I'll give him credit when it's due but that play could have killed the game's momentum.

[Kelly the Dog]

He's 18 for 33, 54.5 % on FG attempts >/= 50 yards.

I'm curious as to why there isn't any discussion about the Chan decision not to kick a FG there. It was, what, 4th and 14? LIndell can easily kick a 52 yarder (I'd like to know the stats but I'd imagine that 54% becomes over 60% when 52 yards and less). It was a beautiful day and didnt seem to be much wind.

 

I don't think it was a no brainer either way, and Fitz has a habit of picking up 3rd and longs better than any Bills QB since Kelly. But I think if I were a coach I would have tried a FG there.

[Defend Greece]

This is a little ridiculous. Had the Bills not won this game, we would be savaging Fitz for that throw as an example of poor decision-making and unnecessary risk-taking. In fact, it might rightly have been called the backbreaker play that buried the Bills if not for some phenomenal gut-checking by this team in spite of, not because of, their earlier errors.

 

I love Fitzy as much as anyone but that was an ugly play. I'll give him credit when it's due but that play could have killed the game's momentum.

What momentum? What should he have done?

I think he had the right idea, get it to one of the big boys up high, he just under threw it

[Hapless Bills Fan]

52 yards. 35 yard line + 10 endzone + 7 for kicking space.

 

Thanks! I guess I'm showing my age as a football fan , forgetting they moved the goalposts to the back of the endzone.

 

Even better call in that case, Lindell is only 40% of recent years in that range.

[MRW]

This is a little ridiculous. Had the Bills not won this game, we would be savaging Fitz for that throw as an example of poor decision-making and unnecessary risk-taking. In fact, it might rightly have been called the backbreaker play that buried the Bills if not for some phenomenal gut-checking by this team in spite of, not because of, their earlier errors.

 

I love Fitzy as much as anyone but that was an ugly play. I'll give him credit when it's due but that play could have killed the game's momentum.

I don't think so. It was 4th and 14, he had to try to make some kind of play there. Regardless of the outcome of the game that play would never qualify as a backbreaker.

[plenzmd1]

My thought at the time was that before the game the kicker tells the coach where he can hit from going in each direction, and Lindell did not tell him 52 in that direction. I like going for it way better than punting I can tell you that.

 

Also, when are thjese dumb DB's going to just knock down 4th down passes...

[BILLieve in B-LO]

in the Pats game.

 

I don't remember exactly when it was, but for sure it was in 1st quarter.

Trailing 14, 4th and 14 (18?) at NE 40 (35?), they go for it, Fitz throws long and is intercepted.

 

For me the message was "I don't care of my stats, I just want to win by any means".

He could have throw it out of bounds.

I just think it was a (yes) smart throw by forcing it.

 

The worst thing that could happen is an int (ok the very worst could be a pick for 6), but even in this case the ball goes back to NE at a further position on the field.

 

I've seen too a teamate putting a tap on his shoulder after that. They knew he was doing his best for a win.

 

A thought about that ?

(and please don't start the grammar flamming, english is not my native language)

 

Awesome post!

cant speak for everyone else but that is exactly the kind of mindset that makes a good QB, a winning QB... and yes there is a difference

[Repulsif]

From the point of view I wanted to make, I think it has a little disgressed, at start I just wanted to point that the last time I saw in Buffalo a go for it that earlier in the game was (possibly) in the Flutie/Wade Phillips era.

I see Jauron/mularkey punting, and Lostman, Bledsoe running for a loss or a 2 yard gain or an out of bounds throw.

 

An interesting thing too :

 

- Pats game, 1st quarter, trailing 14, 4 and 14 at NE 35, they go for it.

- Raiders game, 2nd(?) quarter, trailing 14, 4th and 1 at OAK 15 (?), they kick it.

 

Where is the decision differance ?

I think of multiple factors.

 

- Raiders game.

may be they estimated at that distance, a FG is a 90-95% sure thing, and converting a 4th and 1 at the current momemtum was a 50% ? 40% ? I'm not sure too the Raiders were converting every drive to a score.

- Pats game.

Trailing 14 ; if I remember well they were just scoring at will.

Kicking a 52 yarder is a 50/50 (40/60) ?

Going for it 4th and 14 is what ? a 40% converting ?

I just think it was a momentum thing.

Missing the FG would have iced the fighting spirit.

 

just my 2 cents.

[jumbalaya]

I'd thrown a jump ball at the goal line. Either our WR or TE make a play on the ball or on the DB that catches it. Because you know every DB in the league tries to catch that ball because they are all about the stat and not making the smart play to just knock it down and take the field position.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

This is a little ridiculous. Had the Bills not won this game, we would be savaging Fitz for that throw as an example of poor decision-making and unnecessary risk-taking. In fact, it might rightly have been called the backbreaker play that buried the Bills if not for some phenomenal gut-checking by this team in spite of, not because of, their earlier errors.

 

I love Fitzy as much as anyone but that was an ugly play. I'll give him credit when it's due but that play could have killed the game's momentum.

 

You're probably right that some here would be saying that, and I'd be just as puzzled as to why.

 

The momentum breaker was the 15 yd penalty and the busted plays that put us into 4th and 14.

 

Throwing an INT on 4th and 14 actually gives the opponents WORSE field position than an incompletion

An incompletion gives the opponents worse field position than a missed 52 yd field goal (a low percentage kick for Lindell of recent years).

 

What is so hard to grasp about this logic? This is smart football play calling on Chan's part - aggressive, but smart - and the NE player who made the INT (sorry, I don't remember) only saved himself from a double-barreled earful by making a decent runback from the 20 to the 30.

 

Even so, he probably got an earful. He should have let it fall incomplete and given the Pats the ball on the LOS (35).