Scrappy Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 (edited) The Bills could of kept their foot on the gas & almost assuredly scored several more TD's to pad the stats, if they so chosed. If we did that & the other games played out the same way, our stats would be even greater / more impressive. Link to game notes The reason I am mentioning this now is because it was said that we have a top offense to match Cincy defense but I beg to differ that we could of easily added more points / stats to make ourselves look better against KC / in total but chosed not too. Cincy couldn't of improved their defense anymore & played to their full potential in all of their games. What this really means that if you're using the stat theory (which I always do), that Buffalo could of pulled farther away in offensive stats, didn't do it & yet still leads the league in total points (113) scored. We could easily have 127-130 points scored as of today, which would be far more than the rest than just a few scores we lead by now. Weigh that all in when choosing who wins the game this Sunday, Chan had mercy instead of padding the stats (Like TOm Brady / Bill B always do). So mathematically, we are a far better team on offense than Cincy is on defending, sans the quality of opponents played as well. Edited September 29, 2011 by Scrappy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KD in CA Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 Whether or not their stats could have been better against some garbage team don't mean sh--. They will beat Cincy if they come out an execute on both sides of the ball. Simple as that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scrappy Posted September 29, 2011 Author Share Posted September 29, 2011 (edited) Whether or not their stats could have been better against some garbage team don't mean sh--. They will beat Cincy if they come out an execute on both sides of the ball. Simple as that. Stats show how often teams execute in scoring situations (Red zone offense) & how they could excel even more is a sign of strength that will translate on the field to a greater point yield. Please review the stats link above to see the Bills had plenty of opportunity to pour it on. Edited September 29, 2011 by Scrappy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt in KC Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 You're trying way too hard, Scrappy. KD is right. How the Bills and Bengals play Sunday will determine whether they win, not what happened in the past. If you pretend that all we had to go by were the stats, so it's really important to see the accurate numbers to know just how likely it is the Bills will win (or lose ) this Sunday.... Be sure to analyze all of the Bengals games as well to see if there's some reason that they could have looked better too. And, look at all the lucky plays the Bills have had and see what the stats look like if Fitz was intercepted or the long PI penalty hadn't been called etc.. S Does all this leave you somewhere different than you started? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Caveman Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 So stats are more important than quality of opponent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scrappy Posted September 29, 2011 Author Share Posted September 29, 2011 (edited) So stats are more important than quality of opponent? The stats reflect how teams perform on the average, obviously there are other situations in which outside factors skew things (Injuries / missed calls / dropsies by WR / backs / penalties) but on the average you can see how teams will normally perform based on how they have performed this season. It's like research into how teams match-up but it really comes down to how one plays against another, which is obviously determined on the field (Any given Sunday). Edited September 29, 2011 by Scrappy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 What the hell are you talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scrappy Posted September 29, 2011 Author Share Posted September 29, 2011 (edited) You're trying way too hard, Scrappy. KD is right. How the Bills and Bengals play Sunday will determine whether they win, not what happened in the past. If you pretend that all we had to go by were the stats, so it's really important to see the accurate numbers to know just how likely it is the Bills will win (or lose ) this Sunday.... Be sure to analyze all of the Bengals games as well to see if there's some reason that they could have looked better too. And, look at all the lucky plays the Bills have had and see what the stats look like if Fitz was intercepted or the long PI penalty hadn't been called etc.. S Does all this leave you somewhere different than you started? If Cincy has struggled to a 1-2 record, how would they of decided to ever back down on their defensive play ?? The Bills didn't let KC's offense run ramshacked even after leading big, they shut them down. No defense is going to allow teams to score or move the ball but our offense handed the ball to Johnny White (Our 3rd string back) on 90% of our remaining plays, would you consider that backing down on offense after mutilating them the previous 3 quarters ?? Does all this leave you where you can understand this now, instead of the first place ? What the hell are you talking about? Cincy's defense has a rank (~4th best), Bills offense has a rank as well. The Bills offense if we continued to press would be ranked higher statistically if we did not back off in the 4th Quarter of the KC game. We would have more points, more total yards rushing / passing & a better overall ranking. We chosed not to play hard anymore to show KC mercy, at the sacrifice of improving ourselves statistically. Please see above link to witness how we turned the offense off at the beginning of the 4th quarter of the KC game. We never turned our defense off & had another few possessions, which based on previous results should of yielded us additional offensive gains if we so chosed. Edited September 29, 2011 by Scrappy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 If Cincy has struggled to a 1-2 record, how would they of decided to ever back down on their defensive play ?? The Bills didn't let KC's offense run ramshacked even after leading big, they shut them down. No defense is going to allow teams to score or move the ball but our offense handed the ball to Johnny White (Our 3rd string back) on 90% of our remaining plays, would you consider that backing down on offense after mutilating them the previous 3 quarters ?? Does all this leave you where you can understand this now, instead of the first place ? Cincy's defense has a rank (~4th best), Bills offense has a rank as well. The Bills offense if we continued to press would be ranked higher statistically if we did not back off in the 4th Quarter of the KC game. We would have more points, more total yards rushing / passing & a better overall ranking. We chosed not to play hard anymore to show KC mercy, at the sacrifice of improving ourselves statistically. Please see above link to witness how we turned the offense off at the beginning of the 4th quarter of the KC game. We never turned our defense off & had another few possessions, which based on previous results should of yielded us additional offensive gains if we so chosed. So...what the hell are you talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringBackFlutie Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 Yeah, this is a weird path of reasoning. So if our stats were better overall by pouring it on in KC, we would be better able to beat the Bengals? I suppose you're saying if we had better stats then the "experts" would assume that the Bengals still aren't enough to stop us. Well, I don't know about that, you can't really get much better than #1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Caveman Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 The stats reflect how teams perform on the average, obviously there are other situations in which outside factors skew things (Injuries / missed calls / dropsies by WR / backs / penalties) but on the average you can see how teams will normally perform based on how they have performed this season. It's like research into how teams match-up but it really comes down to how one plays against another, which is obviously determined on the field (Any given Sunday). And taking an average after 3 games is asking for some pretty skewed results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scrappy Posted September 29, 2011 Author Share Posted September 29, 2011 Yeah, this is a weird path of reasoning. So if our stats were better overall by pouring it on in KC, we would be better able to beat the Bengals? I suppose you're saying if we had better stats then the "experts" would assume that the Bengals still aren't enough to stop us. Well, I don't know about that, you can't really get much better than #1. Consistent execution increases the likely of consistent execution, like winning breeds winning. I don't find any of that weird, it's all hidden in the stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombstone56 Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 EXSPECT THE SAME THIS WEEK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt in KC Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 If Cincy has struggled to a 1-2 record, how would they of decided to ever back down on their defensive play ?? The Bills didn't let KC run ramshacked even after leading big, they shut them down. No defense is going to allow teams to score or move the ball but our offense handed the ball to Johnny White (Our 3rd string back) on 90% of our remaining plays, would you consider that backing down on offense after mutilating them the previous 3 quarters ?? Does all this leave you where you can understand this now, instead of the first place ? I agree we eased up on KC (except for the bomb thrown to Parrish by Brad Smith). My point is "so what?". Do you want to adjust your personal forecast from the Bills being a 14 point favorite (or whatever you thought) to a 15 point advantage because the stats you value are skewed, or to 13 because they ease up when the game is in hand? Or do you think they now have a 68% chance of winning instead of 66%? So let's say the Bills advanced another 15 yard in the KC game and were the 2nd best offenses based on yards per game. How does that change your prediction? I understand fine, but really, so what? Sorry, I probably should have just read (or not) and not responded.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scrappy Posted September 29, 2011 Author Share Posted September 29, 2011 (edited) I agree we eased up on KC (except for the bomb thrown to Parrish by Brad Smith). My point is "so what?". Do you want to adjust your personal forecast from the Bills being a 14 point favorite (or whatever you thought) to a 15 point advantage because the stats you value are skewed, or to 13 because they ease up when the game is in hand? Or do you think they now have a 68% chance of winning instead of 66%? So let's say the Bills advanced another 15 yard in the KC game and were the 2nd best offenses based on yards per game. How does that change your prediction? I understand fine, but really, so what? Sorry, I probably should have just read (or not) and not responded.... People have a tendency to milk the defensive prowess stats on Cincy & I'm saying the Bills could be better statistically on offense if they had chosen too. So there is a greater separation than what's on paper, most likely several scores. Edited September 29, 2011 by Scrappy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuntheDamnBall Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 EXSPECT THE SAME THIS WEEK EXSPECT GRATENESS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scrappy Posted September 29, 2011 Author Share Posted September 29, 2011 EXSPECT GRATENESS. Axpect the unaxpected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r00tabaga Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 I think it was stupid for us to kneel the ball vs the Patriots and settle for the FG. That really hurt our RedZone TD%. Even if the Pats went down to tie the game, it would've been worth it. :sarcasm...learn it: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BiggieScooby Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 Scrappy, I'm glad Chan put in the 2nd and 3rd team. You'd hate to see Fitz or Freddy go down with an ACL in 41-7 blowout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wonderbread Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 Axpect the unaxpected. We want axsept mediacrity. What is best in life/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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