Will Spiller fall below the Maybin line?

[RealityCheck]

None of us what to say it out loud, but is CJ Spiller heading in the same direction as Arron Maybin?

 

So far, very little production. And in my understanding of the way things work, running buck may be the easiest way to have immediate impact in the NFL. It's not really a development position, you either have it or you don't. I would contend that any RB taken in the top ten, better be at an All-Pro level very early in their careers.

 

If Spiller has another year like last year, I would say he is a worse pick than Maybin; drafted higher, at a position where success should come sooner than later, etc.

 

I hope he doesn't, I would love to see him succeed, but a number 9 pick has to be more than just an average player; and at this point, Spiller is not even average.

[dajari9]

Whatever the reason...injury or lack of having "it" people were down on him. Busts can be "busts" for all types of reason, whether it's performance or injuries. Point being, it's to early to put Spiller in Maybin Territory...BTW, do we really think Maybin will make the Jets or has he already been cut?!?

[Maury Ballstein]

Spiller will be a Monster this year......The kid can return punts kickoffs 3rd down back etc......Let's give the kid another year before overreacting to the "bust" word.

[DukeyBomb]

No it's as simple as that. Can't believe this thread is even up. I think there really are some dumb people on forums sometimes.

Edited September 2, 2011 by DukeyBomb

[C.Biscuit97]

McFadden wasnt considered a bust. He had turf toe.

Gotta love miserable Bills fans. Make excuses for other teams' players while so quick to trash our own.

 

And Spiller was the exact opposite of Maybin as a prospect. Get a clue.

[drewz]

It's too early to tell, Spiller has 74 rushes and 24 receptions for his career. 98 touches isn't enough to judge him. Until they give him the ball on a regular basis it's hard to tell how good he is. Perhaps they don't give him the ball because he isn't good, but I have no way of knowing that for sure. Besides Jamaal Charles and Darren McFadden, other successful backs like Robert Smith, Thomas Jones, Priest Holmes, and Garrison Hearst had slow starts to their careers due to lack of touches.

[ganesh]

We'll all feel better about the Spiller pick in a couple months. He's coming around. That 20+ yard burst yesterday was more sunshine than Maybin ever gave us.

 

Some of the issues with Spiller, is also the lack of proper consensus with this coaching staff. I believe this staff is so muddled, they don't really have a proper plan to use Fred and Spiller effectively. Sometimes they just put them in positions where they cannot make a play. The musical chair on the OL make it also harder for these RBs to succeed.

 

Chris Johnson is a stud RB, because he runs behind one of the best OL in football.

Adrian Peterson is a stud RB, because he runs behind one of the best OL in footbal.

Adrian Foster is a stud RB, because he runs in one of the best OL in football.

Michael Turner is a stud RB, because he runs behind one of the best OL in football

 

There are very few RBs who are successful behind a woeful OL like ours.

[Pilsner]

Spiller hasn't yet lived up to all the hype and to his draft status, but I'm not worried about this as much as some. He has a solid starter in front of him named Fred Jackson, so Spiller will learn and bide his time.

 

CJ will bypass the Maybin line and shoot straight for the sea. He will cut off any semblance of backtracking that the true trolls will have. (just having a little fun with this.)

 

Some people just love to B word. And no matter how well the Bills eventually become, B word you will, cause there is nothing that satisfies you more so than that.

 

So it will take time imo, Spiller will make a run for the coast and cut off most of your doubts. (except for the doubts that the whiners will always have no matter what)

 

My prediction: He won't become as good a pass blocker as Thurman, he won't read his blocks as well as Thurman, (honestly who will have all of Thurman's skills?) but he has the tools to become an outstanding back for us for years to come. Let's give this man a chance to grow without us being such whiny bezatches.

 

I say bypass the Maybin line, an end around to the sea all the way and cut off the whiners and their endless supplies of bitchiness.

 

Go Bills!!!

 

Edit: After upgrading the D, we shall see how well Spiller progresses once the O-line is upgraded next season. Some people on here just boggle my mind so that I don't even bother posting sometimes. Thank goodness for John from Hemet, San Jose Bills Fan, Shoretalk, NewEra, and others for talking some sense on here. You guys bring my thoughts to the board better than I can, so that's why my trap has been shut for a while.

Edited September 3, 2011 by Pilsner

[Boludo]

74 career carries at 3.8 ypc behind a joke of an offensive line

 

still WAY too early to say

[thewildrabbit]

Some of the issues with Spiller, is also the lack of proper consensus with this coaching staff. I believe this staff is so muddled, they don't really have a proper plan to use Fred and Spiller effectively. Sometimes they just put them in positions where they cannot make a play. The musical chair on the OL make it also harder for these RBs to succeed.

 

Chris Johnson is a stud RB, because he runs behind one of the best OL in football.

Adrian Peterson is a stud RB, because he runs behind one of the best OL in footbal.

Adrian Foster is a stud RB, because he runs in one of the best OL in football.

Michael Turner is a stud RB, because he runs behind one of the best OL in football

 

There are very few RBs who are successful behind a woeful OL like ours.

 

Johnson and Peterson HAD one of the best lines, lets see what they do this year.

 

 

You mean like Freddy Jackson BTW, both Barry Sanders and Walter Payton had some really really bad O lines...bad coaches, bad teams, bad QB's and still were great RB's

 

 

Emmitt Smith might have broken Payton's all time rushing record but he did it behind a great O line, with a great team and great QB. look what happened when he went to Arizona

[Boludo]

Emmitt Smith might have broken Payton's all time rushing record but he did it behind a great O line, with a great team and great QB. look what happened when he went to Arizona

 

lol are you serious?

 

do you realize that emmitt smith had over FOUR THOUSAND carries before he went to the cardinals?

 

how many other running backs in the history of the nfl do you suppose took 4000+ carries in their career?

Edited September 3, 2011 by Boludo

[truth on hold]

74 career carries at 3.8 ypc behind a joke of an offensive line

 

still WAY too early to say

Bill of goods we were sold on spiller was that he would make the oline look better. So you're saying that hasn't happened ?

[CSBill]

A number 9 pick should be more than average you say?

 

Look up how many first round number 9 picks ended up "average". I did not rate the most recent ones. X marks the spot on average, some of my ratings may be debatable but many turned out to be average or below average. See below:

 

2011 Tyron Smith Cowboys 1 9 9 T USC

2010 C.J. Spiller Bills 1 9 9 RB Clemson

2009 B.J. Raji Packers 1 9 9 DT Boston College

2008 Keith Rivers Bengals 1 9 9 LB USC

2007 Ted Ginn Jr. Dolphins 1 9 9 WR Ohio State - x

2006 Ernie Sims Lions 1 9 9 LB Florida State - x

2005 Carlos Rogers Redskins 1 9 9 DB Auburn -x

2004 Reggie Williams Jaguars 1 9 9 WR Washington -x

2003 Kevin Williams Vikings 1 9 9 DE Oklahoma State

2002 John Henderson Jaguars 1 9 9 DT Tennessee

2001 Koren Robinson Seahawks 1 9 9 WR North Carolina State - x

2000 Brian Urlacher Bears 1 9 9 LB New Mexico

1999 Chris Claiborne Lions 1 9 9 LB USC - x

1998 Fred Taylor Jaguars 1 9 9 RB Florida

1997 Tom Knight Cardinals 1 9 9 DB Iowa - x

1996 Rickey Dudley Raiders 1 9 9 TE Ohio State - x

1995 Kyle Brady Jets 1 9 9 TE Penn State - x

1994 Antonio Langham Browns 1 9 9 DB Alabama - x

1993 Lincoln Kennedy Falcons 1 9 9 T Washington

1992 Tommy Vardell Browns 1 9 9 RB Stanford - x

1991 Stanley Richard Chargers 1 9 9 DB Texas - x

1990 Richmond Webb Dolphins 1 9 9 T Texas A&M

1989 Sammie Smith Dolphins 1 9 9 RB Florida State - x

1988 Terry McDaniel Raiders 1 9 9 DB Tennessee

1987 Jerome Brown Eagles 1 9 9 DT Miami (FL)

1986 John Rienstra Steelers 1 9 9 G Temple - x

1985 Kevin Allen Eagles 1 9 9 T Indiana

1984u Joey Jones Falcons 1 9 9 WR Alabama - x

1984 Rick Bryan Falcons 1 9 9 DT Oklahoma - x

1983 Bruce Matthews Oilers 1 9 9 G USC

1982 Gerald Riggs Falcons 1 9 9 RB Arizona State

1981 Mel Owens Rams 1 9 9 LB Michigan - x

1980 Doug Martin Vikings 1 9 9 DT Washington - x

1979 Al Harris Bears 1 9 9 DE Arizona State

1978 Keith Simpson Seahawks 1 9 9 DB Memphis State - x

1977 Mike Butler Packers 1 9 9 DE Kansas - x

1976 Bubba Bean Falcons 1 9 9 RB Texas A&M - x

1975 Mike Fanning Rams 1 9 9 DT Notre Dame - x

1974 Wilbur Jackson 49ers 1 9 9 RB Alabama - x

1973 Otis Armstrong Broncos 1 9 9 RB Purdue - x

1972 Jerome Barkum Jets 1 9 9 WR Jackson State - x

1971 John Brockington Packers 1 9 9 RB Ohio State

1970 Cedric Hardman 49ers 1 9 9 DE North Texas State

1969 Marty Domres Chargers 1 9 9 QB Columbia - x

1968 Haven Moses Bills 1 9 9 WR San Diego State - x

1967 Bob Hyland Packers 1 9 9 G Boston College - x

 

You're right Russ Brandon, if a number 9 pick even gets to average it's success. I shall now commence to lower my expectations for all Bills number one picks . . . I should have known better.

[CSBill]

It's too early to tell, Spiller has 74 rushes and 24 receptions for his career. 98 touches isn't enough to judge him. Until they give him the ball on a regular basis it's hard to tell how good he is. Perhaps they don't give him the ball because he isn't good, but I have no way of knowing that for sure. Besides Jamaal Charles and Darren McFadden, other successful backs like Robert Smith, Thomas Jones, Priest Holmes, and Garrison Hearst had slow starts to their careers due to lack of touches.

 

And thus the point: 98 touches is not enough for a number 9 draft pick . . . Joc. Bell or Bruce Hall could have done that and probably would have been just as successful.

 

Look, I'm not ready to bury him, and as I said before, I am hoping and wishing he will become the back the BIlls thought they'd get with him. But my point is, at this stage in his progress, he has done little to justify it. . . . and so far, based on the evidence before us, his production and results do not come close to his pay grade.

 

YES, some of my assertions were probably overstated, and I hope he does become the guy. But at 9, "the guy" has to be better than average for the pick to be called a good one (e.g. Donte Whitmer). Believe me the last thing I want to do is curse him with the Maybin label, but so far, he's not much beyond it (yes, he is beyond it a little, but not nearly enough). . . . Just saying

 

GO BILLS!!!

[thewildrabbit]

lol are you serious?

 

do you realize that emmitt smith had over FOUR THOUSAND carries before he went to the cardinals?

 

how many other running backs in the history of the nfl do you suppose took 4000+ carries in their career?

Yea well, in his 2 years at Arizona he only managed 1193 yards, 357 carries at a 3.3 ypc, the better the team he was on the better his YPC.

 

Smith played 15 years, 4409 carries, 18355 yards, 4.2 YPC on good & great teams, the Cowboys made the playoffs 9 times and won the SB 3 times

 

 

Payton played 13 years 3838 carries, 16726 yards, 4.4 YPC on mostly bad teams, he made the playoffs 4 times. one SB win

 

 

Barry Sanders played 10 years, 3062 carries, 15269 yards 5.0 YPC on mostly bad teams. he made the playoffs 3 times during his career with the Lions... Sanders made the pro bowl every year he played for the Lions, all 10 years

 

Sanders could have kept playing but he retired ""Sanders finally admitted that the culture of losing in the Lions' organization was too much to deal with even though he said that he could still play"" He explained that it robbed him of his competitive spirit, and he saw no reason to believe things were going to improve"'

 

 

Just saying, I gotta wonder what kind of numbers Barry Sanders could have put up playing on those great Cowboy SB teams

[Boludo]

what is your point?

 

that sanders and payton are ahead of smith on the all time rb list? that is the general consensus anyways.

 

to suggest smith was not a good running back is ridiculous. it was 20 years ago, no need to still be a jealous hater.

 

and the cardinals stats mean absolutely nothing. he was completely over the hill at that point, and he had already taken more hits in his career than any other running back, ever. you'll tend to see a drop off after 4000 carries lol.

 

smith had an amazing career, was an all time great back, and was as tough as they come.

 

i wish the bills had won those super bowls too, but to randomly hate on smith at this point is a bit petty.

[OldTimer1960]

A number 9 pick should be more than average you say?

 

Look up how many first round number 9 picks ended up "average". I did not rate the most recent ones. X marks the spot on average, some of my ratings may be debatable but many turned out to be average or below average. See below:

 

2011 Tyron Smith Cowboys 1 9 9 T USC

2010 C.J. Spiller Bills 1 9 9 RB Clemson

2009 B.J. Raji Packers 1 9 9 DT Boston College

2008 Keith Rivers Bengals 1 9 9 LB USC

2007 Ted Ginn Jr. Dolphins 1 9 9 WR Ohio State - x

2006 Ernie Sims Lions 1 9 9 LB Florida State - x

2005 Carlos Rogers Redskins 1 9 9 DB Auburn -x

2004 Reggie Williams Jaguars 1 9 9 WR Washington -x

2003 Kevin Williams Vikings 1 9 9 DE Oklahoma State

2002 John Henderson Jaguars 1 9 9 DT Tennessee

2001 Koren Robinson Seahawks 1 9 9 WR North Carolina State - x

2000 Brian Urlacher Bears 1 9 9 LB New Mexico

1999 Chris Claiborne Lions 1 9 9 LB USC - x

1998 Fred Taylor Jaguars 1 9 9 RB Florida

1997 Tom Knight Cardinals 1 9 9 DB Iowa - x

1996 Rickey Dudley Raiders 1 9 9 TE Ohio State - x

1995 Kyle Brady Jets 1 9 9 TE Penn State - x

1994 Antonio Langham Browns 1 9 9 DB Alabama - x

1993 Lincoln Kennedy Falcons 1 9 9 T Washington

1992 Tommy Vardell Browns 1 9 9 RB Stanford - x

1991 Stanley Richard Chargers 1 9 9 DB Texas - x

1990 Richmond Webb Dolphins 1 9 9 T Texas A&M

1989 Sammie Smith Dolphins 1 9 9 RB Florida State - x

1988 Terry McDaniel Raiders 1 9 9 DB Tennessee

1987 Jerome Brown Eagles 1 9 9 DT Miami (FL)

1986 John Rienstra Steelers 1 9 9 G Temple - x

1985 Kevin Allen Eagles 1 9 9 T Indiana

1984u Joey Jones Falcons 1 9 9 WR Alabama - x

1984 Rick Bryan Falcons 1 9 9 DT Oklahoma - x

1983 Bruce Matthews Oilers 1 9 9 G USC

1982 Gerald Riggs Falcons 1 9 9 RB Arizona State

1981 Mel Owens Rams 1 9 9 LB Michigan - x

1980 Doug Martin Vikings 1 9 9 DT Washington - x

1979 Al Harris Bears 1 9 9 DE Arizona State

1978 Keith Simpson Seahawks 1 9 9 DB Memphis State - x

1977 Mike Butler Packers 1 9 9 DE Kansas - x

1976 Bubba Bean Falcons 1 9 9 RB Texas A&M - x

1975 Mike Fanning Rams 1 9 9 DT Notre Dame - x

1974 Wilbur Jackson 49ers 1 9 9 RB Alabama - x

1973 Otis Armstrong Broncos 1 9 9 RB Purdue - x

1972 Jerome Barkum Jets 1 9 9 WR Jackson State - x

1971 John Brockington Packers 1 9 9 RB Ohio State

1970 Cedric Hardman 49ers 1 9 9 DE North Texas State

1969 Marty Domres Chargers 1 9 9 QB Columbia - x

1968 Haven Moses Bills 1 9 9 WR San Diego State - x

1967 Bob Hyland Packers 1 9 9 G Boston College - x

 

Excellent post. There are way too many here who don't understand the real percentages of success in the

draft- even the 1st round. Top 10 picks are not guaranteed to be superstars, like it or not. Even in the top

10, you are doing pretty well to get a good player and you are lucky to get a great player. There are average

players and busts every year in the top 10 - and surprise, they aren't all picked by the Bills.

 

Of course, you can with HINDSIGHT go through a draft and see a few players that were picked after player

X and say "they should've picked him". But that doesn't mean that anyone really KNEW that at the time. Let's

all rail on all the teams that passed on Tom Brady or who took a QB that year instead of him. Clearly all 32

teams are run by buffoons who can't get anything right.

 

I guess I agree with you.

 

Love,

Darren McFadden

 

I also agree. Here were my first 3 year's stats in Buffalo behind a similar OL with an average/below average QB:

 

1969: 181 carries, 697 yds, 3.9 ypc

1970: 120 carries, 488 yds, 4.1 ypc

1971: 183 carries, 742 yds, 4.1 ypc

 

Sincerely,

OJ Simpson

[snamsnoops]

again with this discussion, maybe wait till we finish the year or u know play a few games that count. You know the ones teams gameplan for. The ones were our 1st team tries to play the entire game (injuries can happen) F J is a better back 4 our team at this point, but having 2 good backs is a must. So hey, lets sit back n see what this team can do with an unquestioned starter @ Qb for once, and a somewhat good D. Maybe CJ can block a little better and be a little more patient on plays, and we can see what he can do. A little to early to call him a bust, the kid has potential but that is all he has really shown so far. Next week is game 1 baby, LETS GO B-lo!